Ah sucks. I was looking forward to seeing auroras in south Florida.
4 X class solar flares to impact this weekend.
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robby
Photon Vampire
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LOL that plus a lot of other things would be seen
The Ham Bands are Dead right now. An S7 noise level on 20m, less QRN as I go down the bands but everywhere is silent, no audible stations.
wpns
Solar Joules are catch and release
Everyone disconnected their antennas so it wouldn’t blow up their radios.LOL that plus a lot of other things would be seen
The Ham Bands are Dead right now. An S7 noise level on 20m, less QRN as I go down the bands but everywhere is silent, no audible stations.
Cronix
New Member
The only reason why you're seeing them that far south (was visible as far south as Puerto Rico) is the Earth's magnetic field is weakening, meaning it can't fend off solar storms as well. It might be pretty to look at, but what it means isn't.
Geomagnetic storms are not a big deal anymore. We don't rely on shortwave radio anymore and power grids have protection systems in place and adaptations. We could get through another Carrington and have temporary power interruptions at worst without permanent damage. Anything else is scaremongering for clicks/views.
AlaskanNoob
Solar Enthusiast
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I hope you're right and I'm sure you know more about this than I do. But given the aging grid infrastructure and the frequency of rolling blackouts and grids going down during summer and winter, along with human nature and government and corporate competency and ethics (thinking of Enron as just one example)....I have to admit I'm skeptical. But I hope you're right.
robby
Photon Vampire
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The likelihood of another Carrington type event is minimal. Even if the Sun lets off a huge CME the chances of the Earth being in the path are small but I don't agree with your assessment of possible damage.
A CME is going to wreak Havoc with all LEO Satellites and electrically with non military grade Geo stationary Satellites.
Even if the LEO Sat's have no issue with the charge particles they cannot get around the increased drag a CME creates. This will sink all of them into a lower orbit which will then require more fuel to get them back into a proper orbit. A lot of signal blackouts will be occurring and in terms of long term impact at the very least a lot of extra fuel would be wasted which will shorten their lifespans.
As for the Grid, I will believe it when one happens and everything is fine. I have lost faith in Governments and Big companies statements about their preparedness level for a disaster.
What are these protection systems in place for the grid that prevent the DC current induced in the lines magnetically saturating grid transformers turning them into resistive heaters so if the power is not cut it burns them out (not with a huge current either, so you can't prevent it with your normal surge protection etc)?
I heard this is one of the key modes of permanent grid damage. Also as demonstrated this weekend we're not talking about a CME in a same way as let's say a lightning strike. Few milliseconds and it's done. No, it can go on for days, perhaps weeks if waves of plasma keep coming. This means multiple hits, some smaller, some larger. In a way grids that stay on(or are quickly reeestablished) are much more in danger. Also, how do you detect minor damage in transformers without visiting each and every one? Then you switch on the power and they start failing. How do you replace, let's say optimistically 10% of all your grid transformers quickly? What if this is global?
Then you look at all the supply chain issues. Would China allow export of these transformers if they needed them? Would Kongo establish huge export tax on copper? How long would it take? Weeks, months, years? And within these years without power would we maintain the security stance required to accomplish rebuilding it?
I'm told there are solutions to protect these transformers, but it costs money and you can't do it remotely. You'd need people visit and install equipment on every single transformer. It is possible to build them in a way that makes them less susceptible. We're not doing that either. Don't ask me how exactly I'm not an expert, but people I trust made me believe the above is true.
Regarding the probability of Carrington style events and more, people that watch Sun's activity (spots, flare frequency etc) are pretty concerned the probability is very much not in our favor. People who watch Sun's activity claim it has been increasing a lot more than what is expected from just a maximum in an 11 year cycle. The effects are visible on all planets where we have probes. Huge storms that were thought to be stable for centuries changing direction on Uranus is just one. Climate change on Mars (wonder why that one doesn't get the publicity) etc.
Also,what is it that protects the Earth (and other planets) from solar plasma? Our magnetic field. And the question we should be asking is, is that thing stable? The answer sadly is nope!
It diminishes greatly and fluctuates rapidly during so called magnetic pole shifts(or reversals). How often do these happen? Every 6k years ago. And when was the last one? 6k years ago. And before? 12k yes ago, before 18k yes ago and so on. We are seeing much more effect on Earth from relatively minor solar stuff now than we did in the last solar cycle.
You can take the above or leave it. Don't ask me for research paper links for all the claims. I don't have the time to search for them. You can consider it scaremongering or you can do your own research. As I said, people I trust in the field say these things and they seem very credible to me.
The other question is, let's consider two positions. One, it is all bullshit and we're fine. In such case we can just do nothing and if we prepare there is extra monetary cost to bear. If it's not bullshit there is a question how bad of a crisis can it be? Can you survive a month without power, with store shelves empty, with civil unrest etc? How about a year?
There are levels of preparedness. If a huge one hits and lightning bolts shoot between the front and back case of your newest phone while you're holding it in you hand most of us are dead anyway, but what if it's a lot smaller? Let's say "just" the grid goes down for years which causes an initial period of unrest/lack of supply for only few weeks/months at worst. Would you not want to be prepared for it just in case?
Here are Amazon links for my suggested items:
(I'm only joking)I know how it sounds. Sometimes people ask me, how do you separate bullshit from truth online? And I tell them, there is no shortcut, you have to do your own research if you want to be certain.
Having read the uk-severe-space-weather-preparedness-strategy.pdf from .Gov, seems they talk about days of grid outage for the main parts of the country and possibly longer for those in coastal areas as there is less grid redundancy.
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"
For example, ABB and Hydro-Québec tested
their 735 kilovolt transformer design with 75
amperes per phase of simulated GIC for 1
hour and concluded that thermal damage was
not a major concern for this transformer
Technology.
In addition to transformers, protective
relays have various designs that respond
differently to harmonic currents. Protective
relays that are digital can be programmed to
reduce the likelihood of misoperation due to
harmonics and therefore may be more
resilient to the effects of GIC."
If you want to go really technical:
"
The results suggest the effect of DC bias, caused by either ERC or GIC, on a properly designed
converter transformer differential protection is limited. In the case of steady states, DC bias can
significantly saturate a converter transformer, but the resultant differential current increment does
not cause differential protection mal-operation. In the case of transients caused by external faults,
the effect of ERC/GIC is similar to remanent flux which may improve or worsen CTs transient
performance. The harmonic blocking and higher slope 2 of percentage restraint are able to deal
with spurious trips caused by heavy through-faults with DC bias. Relay tests demonstrate the
preexisting harmonics induced by DC bias does not desensitize the relay for in-zone faults. Either a
relay failure to trip or mal-operation is not related to DC bias but is due to insufficient dimensions
for a CT. Suggestions are provided to ensure protection CTs can be adequately specified and to
improve the dependability and security of converter transformer differential protection.
In this study, the low-frequency characteristic of GIC-induced DC bias was also considered, and its
potential effect on converter transformer differential protection was investigated. The analysis
shows a low-frequency GIC can magnetize or demagnetize a converter transformer and a CT, but
this low-frequency characteristic does not pose any new risks to the operating performance of
converter transformer differential protection. Test results indicate the impact of ERC-induced DC
bias and GIC-induced DC bias on the operating performance of converter transformer differential
protection is similar. To conclude, it is unnecessary to consider the low-frequency characteristics of
GIC, i.e. GIC can be conveniently treated as a DC signature when investigating its impact."
In other words, if properly designed (and I know there are here in Finland, YMMV), it's not an issue. Note also in the paper:
"With respect to the level of DC bias currents, records show the stray ERC measured from transformer neutral points can be as much as 100 A in some HVDC projects [12], but the maximum GIC was up to 200 A in the neutral point of a transformer located in Finland and Sweden [78]. "
Quattrohead
Solar Wizard
Mapping software on your phone relies on GPS, it was having issues the other day. I know how to read a paper map but do my kids generation ?
Thanks.
Is anyone surprised in Quebec out of all places they care more about these things? They've experienced a space weather caused grid disruption in 1989. So I'm not surprised people in charge od spec-ing their systems have it in mind. Just the fact they did this tests shows it.
And yet they show examples of few transformers failing In Sweden during some previous event. They talk about different transformer design method, how these transformers are a lot heavier and how certain high voltage transformers may be a lot more susceptible. They also mention their conclusions for the US grid are not necessarily the same for "other countries". So as said before, there are transformers that are a lot less susceptible. I think (at least in the EU) each country should do a proper risk assessment.
It is a pretty good document. They present both sides of the argument. There are a lot of caveats and everyone can take it supporting their argument to say "i told you do". Reads like proper gov agency work
For example:
Separate studies by an insurer and a federal contractor raise the possibility of an extreme GMD event causing a longduration, large-scale blackout—a “black sky” event—that affects tens of millions of people or more in the United States. An insurance industry working group has cautioned that a several-week power outage affecting urban areas would have catastrophic societal and economic impacts. The insurer’s study, in
Technology Assessment GAO-19-98 26particular, identifies between 20 and 40 million U.S. people at risk of blackout lasting between 16 days and 2 years. However, a Sandia National Laboratories review requested by FERC of the contractor report questioned the long-term level of impact GMD could have on the electric grid and recommended further research. A Los Alamos National Laboratory study identified limitations related to the contractor’s study design. A study by JASON, an independent defense scientific advisory group, was also critical of such estimates stating that the authors were not convinced that the worstcase scenario was plausible
So Sandia National Labs "questioned" the report. Why? Who is right? Do we know? There is more of this "here is what we think we know, but we may be pretty wrong" stuff.
At least they are honest. I respect that. However, I wouldn't conclude based on the fact some country has standards to "properly" design transformers that the grid is immune.
There is also a question of scale of the event and local factors. What about older transformers etc.
Don't get me wrong. I'm not advocating to run for the hills and carve wooden cutlery because we'll get eletrocuted while eating one day. But it is a fact solar activity is increasing and it has higher impact on weaker magnetic field the earth has. Here is an old article from 20 years ago https://www.science.org/content/article/earths-waning-magnet we have a lot more recent info. https://www.esa.int/Applications/Ob...rm_probes_weakening_of_Earth_s_magnetic_field
The biggest threat is not just a CME it is a big CME (or few that cumulate, just like two waves that were supposed to arrive separately but reinforced each other last Sunday) and a sudden weakening of the Earth field at the same time.
My takeway is that of course, nothing is 100% and the way things were operating in the past had some issues (with the disconnect of transformers), but with current controllers these are pretty much mitigated. The example from Sweden illustrates this with a GIC of 200A, and I know that changes have been made in this regard here in Finland, so I'm pretty sure Sweden made some updates as well since then.
Personally, I'm not too concerned with an event, even a major one, taking out large parts of the grid. Will there be issues? Sure. But things are built a lot more resilient these days then even a couple of decades ago in this field, at least here in Finland for sure.
Personally, I'm not too concerned with an event, even a major one, taking out large parts of the grid. Will there be issues? Sure. But things are built a lot more resilient these days then even a couple of decades ago in this field, at least here in Finland for sure.
I'm not sure if kids of this generation can even handle analog watches
AlaskanNoob
Solar Enthusiast
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I wouldn't be surprised if Finland or Sweden had a solution to the transformer issue. Not at all. I would, however, be shocked if we had implemented a solution in the United States.
Brett V
Mad Scientist
The threat from cyber attacks and actual sabotage to our infrastructure are far more likely than a solar flare. Resources would be better spent securing the border and beefing up networks security.
Quattrohead
Solar Wizard
We just have to look at the Texas winter fiasco a couple of years back to know that utilities take whatever shortcut they can to minimize expenses.
Most grids across the world are near max capacity, old age and minimum investment, a Carrington type event will no doubt cause serious issues across the world.
We got bloody lucky that AR3664 latest X8.7 was not pointed in our direction.
Remember, the CME that caused so much excitement last week was only a X2.2.
Ma Nature can play with us any time she wants.
Most grids across the world are near max capacity, old age and minimum investment, a Carrington type event will no doubt cause serious issues across the world.
We got bloody lucky that AR3664 latest X8.7 was not pointed in our direction.
Remember, the CME that caused so much excitement last week was only a X2.2.
Ma Nature can play with us any time she wants.
.wpns
Solar Joules are catch and release
What’s that?
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