104% Tariff Just Announced On Chinese Imports..

[aussiesam]

Now is the time to invest in the stock market. One last big swing for a 30% increase to finalize my retirement fund.

there may be a glut of product that other countries are unable to sell. Tariffs come down to an acceptable level and you will see a sell off on an epic scale.

Living through many of these dips and peeks I see it as a numbers game. The ones with pationce and timing will prevail. You always hear that you can't time the market... I call bull shit! Been there done that.

One last big cycle left is this old man. Giddy up horsey, it is going to be one hell of a ride

We're supposed to hit way lower if tariffs stick. For the last decade there has been insane inflation and the only solution that millennials have been able to find is to pour all their money into the stock market, causing the highest P/E ratios of the S&P we've seen in decades. This would have to be re-adjusted for this new reality. It will take 1-2 years of these tariffs before people start to realize how massive of a shift it is. I think 90 % of companies will see their profits decline and we will have stagflation. The market trades about 6 months ahead of the economy, once the stock piles run out we will see the true effects. My best investment so far has been to go big on solar in 2024, otherwise I'm down basically 20% so far, instead of adding more, I'm trying to find new business ideas that will not be impacted by trade wars.

 

[SparkyJJO]

Give it time. Painful short term (relatively speaking, I'm not expecting a month or two or something like that) but long term gain. Don't expect fixes overnight. I expect some (a lot?) of stuff will be more volatile on pricing. That's OK. I don't need half this stuff right now anyway, I got enough projects on the burners that I need to actually finish!

The guy is a shrewd businessman, I suspect he knows a lot more how this stuff works than most of us do. Stop, I can hear you already, "Oh but he had 6 businesses go bankrupt!" Yeah and how many succeeded, so what was his actual success rate? And how many successful businesses have YOU started? So give me a break. Plus, some of of the 6 that flopped weren't even in his control when they died, so they don't even count.

 

[Q-Dog]

The guy is a shrewd businessman

He is a real estate salesman and a TV show host ... a PT Barnum selling gold toilets and dreams that smell of desperation.

 

[chill633]

Give it time. Painful short term (relatively speaking, I'm not expecting a month or two or something like that) but long term gain. Don't expect fixes overnight. I expect some (a lot?) of stuff will be more volatile on pricing. That's OK. I don't need half this stuff right now anyway, I got enough projects on the burners that I need to actually finish!

The guy is a shrewd businessman, I suspect he knows a lot more how this stuff works than most of us do. Stop, I can hear you already, "Oh but he had 6 businesses go bankrupt!" Yeah and how many succeeded, so what was his actual success rate? And how many successful businesses have YOU started? So give me a break. Plus, some of of the 6 that flopped weren't even in his control when they died, so they don't even count.

He isn't a shrewd businessman, his father was. He's a trust fund baby who's overall record is utter garbage. His two skills are marketing his name and working the system. He has been bailed out several times by foreign banks, because no one domestic will trust him. He owes a crap ton to Russian banks. His ONLY real success is as a TV game show host with "The Apprentice". He leveraged that into marketing the Trump brand.

 

[Robbert]

If you need something from China (most of our solar stuf and related items are from China) I would get it NOW.
Prices will go up significantly in the coming months and it will take some time (maybe years) to become 'normal' again.

 

[HighDesertDrifter]

He is a real estate salesman and a TV show host ... a PT Barnum selling gold toilets and dreams that smell of desperation.

I don't have a dog in the fight, but it's quite entertaining sitting on the front row watching " The Greatest Show on Earth!"
I can hardly wait for the lion tamer to crack his whip and put his head inside the lions jaws!
Will he pull out a bloody stub, or will the lion roll over on his back so he can rub his belly?
We shall see, hmmmm?

 

[Sunny Day]

Trump’s generic playbook seems to be to adopt an extreme position to create a reaction, then row back from it with a compromise deal. I’m assuming these tariffs will quickly get reduced or cancelled once he’s got the concessions he’s looking for from others.

 

[houseofancients]

Trump’s generic playbook seems to be to adopt an extreme position to create a reaction, then row back from it with a compromise deal. I’m assuming these tariffs will quickly get reduced or cancelled once he’s got the concessions he’s looking for from others.

and that is the point i made, wont get any from China, EU or Canada...
All seem a bit done with his antics , remembering 2016 , and are willing to play ball

 

[Bongbong]

Calm down, it will all get sorted over time. The U.S. and China will come to an agreement eventually, when it does, regardless of the reality, Trump will claim it as a win and China will allow his supporters to believe that.

The reason for (reasonable) tariffs in the first place is that companies can't compete with foreign producers for a variety of reasons and in that scenario (reasonable tariffs), Americans consumers will just pay more for the products, regardless if they are made in China or the U.S. These Tariffs were never reasonable, they were flawed from the start. So there must be another reason for this.

Some are suggesting that Trump wants to create free trade (0% tariffs) between the U.S. and other nations around the world. That is not going to happen as there are way too many other trade barriers and subsidies possible, and even Trump's actions themselves are making people less inclined to buy American made products even if American products were cheaper, and like the "freedom fries" that will pass over time. The reason that trade imbalance won't be reduced other than with tariffs, is that Americans are more than 10 times wealthier than the rest of the world, I would expect them to buy more from poorer nations than people in poorer nation can afford to buy from the U.S. In addition, people from poorer nations will try to move to the U.S. to get a slice of the pie, legally or illegally.

So the best Americans can hope for, in the short term, is reasonable tariffs, pay a little more for products and consider that with all the wealth in the country, is that so bad?

 

[Mattb4]

and that is the point i made, wont get any from China, EU or Canada...
All seem a bit done with his antics , remembering 2016 , and are willing to play ball

Pretty stupid to argue with someone pointing a gun at you. Not that some folks lack the ability to adjust to reality. Reminds me of why refusing to cooperate with the police is a dangerous thing. No mater how much you think they are wrong.

Like it or not the countries of the World had better be willing to play ball. Instead of escalating start negotiating. China seems stuck in the, "you can not do this mindset". Yes the US can.

 

[DPC]

Yeah, nobody knows for sure at this point. The real beneficiaries of this will be Europe, because China will be desperate to sell goods that Americans will not be able to afford. For people like me, I have dual US/EU citizenship with homes in US and Europe. I will be fine, but I am worried about my fellow citizens who are not as fortunate as myself, and I fear may suffer greatly if this madness continues.

Its crossed my mind that prices here might drop.
And supply lines might switch to Chinese companies.
There is going to be a glut of stuff...
It has to be sold someplace.

 

[DPC]

We're supposed to hit way lower if tariffs stick. For the last decade there has been insane inflation and the only solution that millennials have been able to find is to pour all their money into the stock market, causing the highest P/E ratios of the S&P we've seen in decades. This would have to be re-adjusted for this new reality. It will take 1-2 years of these tariffs before people start to realize how massive of a shift it is. I think 90 % of companies will see their profits decline and we will have stagflation. The market trades about 6 months ahead of the economy, once the stock piles run out we will see the true effects. My best investment so far has been to go big on solar in 2024, otherwise I'm down basically 20% so far, instead of adding more, I'm trying to find new business ideas that will not be impacted by trade wars.

Open a Holden dealership lol

 

[chill633]

Its crossed my mind that prices here might drop.
And supply lines might switch to Chinese companies.
There is going to be a glut of stuff...
It has to be sold someplace.

Black market. Well, black & white. Those penguins on Heard & McDonald Islands are PRIMED for relabeling and reshipping!

 

[DPC]

Trump’s generic playbook seems to be to adopt an extreme position to create a reaction, then row back from it with a compromise deal. I’m assuming these tariffs will quickly get reduced or cancelled once he’s got the concessions he’s looking for from others.

And you think everyone will return to normal after that?

The knife in the side will be in back of everyone's mind for long time.
Canadian's like are unlikely to return to our old habitats of buying American products even if we get a deal.
And the deals hinge on us giving things up like our Dairy and Poultry industries and supply chains for deeper integration.
We have eggs on the store shelves because we supply management, I'm even less in favour of giving that up now seeing what has happened to your poultry industry.

This has been a stupid trade war from the get go.
Pick on Vietnam, they make you cheap shoes!
What do you think you are going to sell them they need to make up for all the cheap shoes?

 

[DPC]

Black market. Well, black & white. Those penguins on Heard & McDonald Islands are PRIMED for relabeling and reshipping!

Think about it.
If US consumption falls significantly the Chinese are going to need new markets and are going to double down on selling everything they can to every other country.
You may trade less with them and every other country ( including the Penguins )
Everyone else is going to try to trade more.

This alone will made competition more cut throat while the tariffs make American business inefficient codled and less able to compete for those same markets.

 

[Zork Arg]

I truly believe this isn’t going to last very long china is as dependent on us as we are on them if not more so they have to move large quantities of products to support their economy if the velocity slows down it will effect them rather quickly and even if they can find other markets they are most likely are not going to spend as much per item and purchase as much as us Americans

I personally believe they will try to lower prices to try to still sell their products and eat a lot of the tariffs by reducing their profits margins and subsidize their manufacturing sector to try to hold out

I think this may be the start of the movement of manufacturing to a new lower cost country as we have seen over the years think about how many countries have made products for the U.S markets over the years and eventually lost out to another country ( Japan-Taiwan-India-Vietnam-Korea ect )

Rodrick: You seem to be right on the mark, so far. I'm surprised at some of the low prices.

 

[EPicTony]

Another poster mentioned USA "Blackmail ?" How is matching another country's tariff blackmail ? If they have a 0% tariff so do we. If they have a x% tariff so do we. That is not blackmail.

 

[chill633]

Think about it.
If US consumption falls significantly the Chinese are going to need new markets and are going to double down on selling everything they can to every other country.
You may trade less with them and every other country ( including the Penguins )
Everyone else is going to try to trade more.

This alone will made competition more cut throat while the tariffs make American business inefficient codled and less able to compete for those same markets.

100% agree.

 

[Q-Dog]

Think about it.
If US consumption falls significantly the Chinese are going to need new markets and are going to double down on selling everything they can to every other country.
You may trade less with them and every other country ( including the Penguins )
Everyone else is going to try to trade more.

This alone will made competition more cut throat while the tariffs make American business inefficient codled and less able to compete for those same markets.

The Chinese learned some lessons from the first Trump term, and were already working on expanding to other markets before Trump 2.0.

 

[rhino]

Everyone seems to think that all these problems can be fixed overnight. This has been going on for decades and started when US companies figured out they can get someone in China to manufacture something much cheaper then they could in the US even before China was a manufacturing powerhouse. It was the US that basically built the Chinese manufacturing empire.

 

[aussiesam]

Open a Holden dealership lol

I was thinking of starting a youtube channel reviewing solar brands that the rest of the world could buy while we wait for the superpowers to figure it out. But I'm not as fun to listen to as Will, def not as knowledgeable or good looking and it would take about 3 months to get new products, so I'd probably end up being one of those channels with 500 viewers, which isn't enough for a cup of coffee at the new price.

 

[Q-Dog]

Everyone seems to think that all these problems can be fixed overnight. This has been going on for decades and started when US companies figured out they can get someone in China to manufacture something much cheaper then they could in the US even before China was a manufacturing powerhouse. It was the US that basically built the Chinese manufacturing empire.

I call it the "Wal-Mart-ization" of the American economy. Buy the cheapest crap you can find, drive good manufacturers out of business, complain how all the good manufacturers have disappeared.

 

[houseofancients]

Pretty stupid to argue with someone pointing a gun at you. Not that some folks lack the ability to adjust to reality. Reminds me of why refusing to cooperate with the police is a dangerous thing. No mater how much you think they are wrong.

Like it or not the countries of the World had better be willing to play ball. Instead of escalating start negotiating. China seems stuck in the, "you can not do this mindset". Yes the US can.

and that is where you ( and many other Americans) are wrong...
while being the biggest economy in size, you're not the only one....
After 2016 , China's total export to the USA is 14.5 %, as a reference , the to the EU it is 14,7....

The world is bigger than the US alone

 

[chill633]

Another poster mentioned USA "Blackmail ?" How is matching another country's tariff blackmail ? If they have a 0% tariff so do we. If they have a x% tariff so do we. That is not blackmail.

The US is the #1 economy in the world. China is #2, at a bit more than half. #3 is Germany, at 1/6th. It goes rapidly downhill for the rest of the world from there. Tariffs are used to protect domestic industry. The US could destroy almost all of their economies if we set our minds to it. Economic vassal states. The vast, vast majority of them aren't a threat to us in the slightest. We're bullying them.

Take Lesotho, who was #1 on the tariff list at 50% until the dick-waving exercise with China. They export $234.5 million more to the US than we do to them. We buy diamonds, mostly, and trout. Pretty, shiny rocks and some fish. They, with the average wage of $5 per day, buy ... well, not much because we DON'T SELL ANYTHING THEY CAN AFFORD. With a population of 2.3 million people, the tariffs they have are in place to protect what little domestic industry they have. One US company could destroy them on a whim, if they so wanted. How is their placing high tariffs on imported goods to ensure their very economic survival blackmail? We are NOT negotiating as equals, because we're NOT equals. We're thugs looking for protection money.

The US is bigger than pretty much everyone else combined, economic wise. Well, we're bigger than #3 - #10, then #11 down on pretty much thru the rest as two separate chunks. Only China and the EU as a whole can come close to competing. Most of the other countries of the world operate on a similar principle as Lesotho -- protect their domestic industries to ensure they aren't vassals and destroyed on a whim of the giants.

The United States is the wealthiest, most resource rich nation in the history of the world. We are NOT being taken advantage of. There is no one else in the world that has that ability. We have trade deficits because WE THE PEOPLE buy all that stuff. You really want the gov't telling you where you can shop? Want to "Buy American", GO FOR IT! If we don't make it that's because it isn't profitable enough.

Think lack of tariffs are to blame for importing cheap goods and driving out American business? Labor and materials costs in the US are much higher and raising the prices of the foreign to match the domestic won't bring all that business over here. Some, yes, but most will just "do without" instead of spending.

 

[chill633]

I call it the "Wal-Mart-ization" of the American economy. Buy the cheapest crap you can find, drive good manufacturers out of business, complain how all the good manufacturers have disappeared.

American's had a hand in that. During the 1990s and early 2000s Walmart had a big "Buy American" campaign. You could see signs in the store highlighting American-made products. They had lost of TV spots highlighting this. Want to buy American? Come to Walmart.

And people did. And right next to the "Made in USA" goods were slightly cheaper foreign-made equivalents. And then lots of those flag-waving Americans wiped away a patriotic tear in their eye and reached for the cheaper foreign equivalent. "Great to see American Made stuff in Walmart! Rah, rah! But this one is cheaper..."

Americans were given a choice and they chose cheap foreign stuff. Talk is cheap, so are most people. They aren't willing to spend more for "Made in America" unless there is an obvious quality difference, and those days are GONE. China makes cheap crap. China ALSO makes really nice stuff.