Geomagnetic storms are not a big deal anymore. We don't rely on shortwave radio anymore and power grids have protection systems in place and adaptations. We could get through another Carrington and have temporary power interruptions at worst without permanent damage. Anything else is scaremongering for clicks/views.
What are these protection systems in place for the grid that prevent the DC current induced in the lines magnetically saturating grid transformers turning them into resistive heaters so if the power is not cut it burns them out (not with a huge current either, so you can't prevent it with your normal surge protection etc)?
I heard this is one of the key modes of permanent grid damage. Also as demonstrated this weekend we're not talking about a CME in a same way as let's say a lightning strike. Few milliseconds and it's done. No, it can go on for days, perhaps weeks if waves of plasma keep coming. This means multiple hits, some smaller, some larger. In a way grids that stay on(or are quickly reeestablished) are much more in danger. Also, how do you detect minor damage in transformers without visiting each and every one? Then you switch on the power and they start failing. How do you replace, let's say optimistically 10% of all your grid transformers quickly? What if this is global?
Then you look at all the supply chain issues. Would China allow export of these transformers if they needed them? Would Kongo establish huge export tax on copper? How long would it take? Weeks, months, years? And within these years without power would we maintain the security stance required to accomplish rebuilding it?
I'm told there are solutions to protect these transformers, but it costs money and you can't do it remotely. You'd need people visit and install equipment on every single transformer. It is possible to build them in a way that makes them less susceptible. We're not doing that either. Don't ask me how exactly I'm not an expert, but people I trust made me believe the above is true.
Regarding the probability of Carrington style events and more, people that watch Sun's activity (spots, flare frequency etc) are pretty concerned the probability is very much not in our favor. People who watch Sun's activity claim it has been increasing a lot more than what is expected from just a maximum in an 11 year cycle. The effects are visible on all planets where we have probes. Huge storms that were thought to be stable for centuries changing direction on Uranus is just one. Climate change on Mars (wonder why that one doesn't get the publicity) etc.
Also,what is it that protects the Earth (and other planets) from solar plasma? Our magnetic field. And the question we should be asking is, is that thing stable? The answer sadly is nope!
It diminishes greatly and fluctuates rapidly during so called magnetic pole shifts(or reversals). How often do these happen? Every 6k years ago. And when was the last one? 6k years ago. And before? 12k yes ago, before 18k yes ago and so on. We are seeing much more effect on Earth from relatively minor solar stuff now than we did in the last solar cycle.
You can take the above or leave it. Don't ask me for research paper links for all the claims. I don't have the time to search for them. You can consider it scaremongering or you can do your own research. As I said, people I trust in the field say these things and they seem very credible to me.
The other question is, let's consider two positions. One, it is all bullshit and we're fine. In such case we can just do nothing and if we prepare there is extra monetary cost to bear. If it's not bullshit there is a question how bad of a crisis can it be? Can you survive a month without power, with store shelves empty, with civil unrest etc? How about a year?
There are levels of preparedness. If a huge one hits and lightning bolts shoot between the front and back case of your newest phone while you're holding it in you hand most of us are dead anyway, but what if it's a lot smaller? Let's say "just" the grid goes down for years which causes an initial period of unrest/lack of supply for only few weeks/months at worst. Would you not want to be prepared for it just in case?
Here are Amazon links for my suggested items:
(I'm only joking)
I know how it sounds. Sometimes people ask me, how do you separate bullshit from truth online? And I tell them, there is no shortcut, you have to do your own research if you want to be certain.
Still addictively interesting.
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