Battery Day is Coming...

[gnubie]

I lost track of the number of times he said how cool or amazing it was.


You mean the pouch cells they couldn't get when they first started (because every other car manufacturer uses them) and wouldn't have had a business if they waited and were clever enough to innovate solutions around the problems? Just like then, one of their biggest problems is still getting enough batteries.

Oh, you mean deliberately crippling their own production volumes instead of, oh I dunno, just making existing track proven pouch cell based batteries? Stuff that didn't need years and years of expensive R&R just to get to the point where they are only now starting to level up to pouch cells? Yes, yes, I can see that as being a sound manufacturing strategy. Of course, there's absolutely nothing at all that can be done to step pouch cells forward opening up that gap is there. I mean, it'd be far far more complicated than say, widening the tab on pouch cells to lower their effective internal resistance to get more current out in a given time, wouldn't it? ?

Personally I would have thought addressing substandard manufacturing processes such as using practically every screw and bolt known to man instead of standardising on a set of fasteners or making a car shell out of weird shaped pieces that are then screwed together instead of large pressed forms, would have been a better approach towards mass production. You know, the basics that literally every other mass market car manufacturer on the planet already does as a matter of course. If spending large sums on cell R&D to only now be approaching where the other EV manufacturers have been in terms of energy storage for some time floats your boat rather than addressing those sort of structural manufacturing issues, then Telsa is certainly the company for you!

 

[svetz]

Personally when I look at a cup half full of water I think, hey look at that water.

 

[gnubie]

Personally I'd take the full cup of ice cold water sitting right next to it.

 

[HRTKD]

You guys crack me up. Tell me how you really feel!

PS: I don't own/drive and have never slobbered on a Tesla.

 

[gnubie]

I don't have any particular feelings on the subject beyond limiting the sheer amount of BS he's allowed to get away with. If that rather impressive steaming heap could be shovelled away successfully there are actually genuine technical achievements buried there. The whole Church Of Musk demonstrates 'millenial gold star for showing up' in a nutshell.

Battery Day is a perfect example. Try explaining to any of the disciples that the 'revolutionary' new cylindrical cell size isn't that impressive really and well, you get the idea. As an improvement to cylindrical cells, it's not revolutionary as most of the volumentric improvement comes down packing efficiency (see how many cans of drink you can fit in a carton) and it's only approaching that of pouch cells; the thermal improvements, if actually ever implemented and that is a big question mark of itself, it's definitely an improvement for cylindrical cells but again no spectacular compared to pouch cells.

 

[FilterGuy]

A 'no BS' look at the larger cell size format. Some people may find this interesting, others may end up in the corner having a sook

*edit*
Please use your intelligence before posting, clearly Dave is referring to the cylindrical cells when he is saying prismatic when he talks about thermal management.

An interesting video.

- One thing I don't think he made very clear is that reducing the restive loss by an order of magnitude means an equivalent reduction in heat generated. Consequently, even if they don't take advantage of extracting the heat through the 'tab-less' design, there is much less heat generated than with the Tabbed design.

- Taking full advantage of extracting the heat via the tab-less design might be a bit of a challenge if they continue to put a fusible link to each cell.
The fusible link will be a thermal 'choke point' unless they also use some kind of non-electrically conducting material that is a good thermal conductor. Presumably, they will put the fusible link on the aluminum side and concentrate the heat extraction with a large solid electrical and thermal connection on the copper side.

- Toward the end of the video he talked about the larger cells allowing for better density when built into a battery pack. I don't think the gains in energy density comes from this. It turns out that larger diameter cylinders have larger voids between them....so it is pretty much the same cylinder density no matter what the diameter of the cell is. However, there may be some small gains due to less of the cylinder is the case/can wall.

- Not talked about in the video but discussed at battery day was the idea of making the battery a structural part of the car. The reason I bring this up is that it sounded like they will be getting rid of the battery 'modules' that the DIY community has been using. Instead, it looked like it will be one massive module. It will be interesting to see how it rolls out and what the DIY community will be able to use from scrapped Teslas.

Overall, I agree that from a battery science point of view, battery day was disappointing. However, from an engineering and manufacturing point of view, they announced some pretty impressive improvements. They are talking about cutting the cost in half by re-examining the whole process from the mine to the finished vehicle. The analysts have said that Tesla already had a huge cost advantage on their batteries.....and this will make it even larger if the competitors don't follow suit with equivalent cost improvements. (The good news is that Tesla has offered to make their patents available to others for free.... Remember the Tesla corporate goal is to move the world to renewable energy)

Before battery day, the hype got out of hand. People started expecting some magic alchemy that would revolutionize the battery world. Instead, Tesla announced a bunch of incremental engineering improvements that, when added together, make for very impressive cost improvements on what is essentially the same battery science/chemistry. Even though there was no revolutionary new chemistry announced, it is still exciting to see a plan to reduce battery costs to the point of making electric vehicles price competitive or even beating ICE vehicles.

Yes, Elon talks big. Yes, Elon never delivers as fast as he says he will. However, Elon has done more to drive electric vehicles into the mainstream than anyone else..... and he is doing the same with space. I have learned to double or triple his timelines.... but in the long run, I would not bet against Elon.

 

[gnubie]

Thankyou @FilterGuy , well thought out. I've arranged for you to be ex-communicated

 

[FilterGuy]

Thankyou @FilterGuy , well thought out. I've arranged for you to be ex-communicated

Oh NO!!!!! Please don't excommunicate me from the Church of Will!!! I promise to be a faithful Willite. ?

 

[FilterGuy]

Personally I would have thought addressing substandard manufacturing processes such as using practically every screw and bolt known to man instead of standardising on a set of fasteners or making a car shell out of weird shaped pieces that are then screwed together instead of large pressed forms, would have been a better approach towards mass production.

Yes, according to the reports from independent tear-downs, it sounds like some of the Tesla designs are bad for manufacturing. However, it also sounds like the Y made improvements in this area and at battery day Musk discussed some of the other things they are doing for manufacturing improvements (like very large die-press parts replacing many other parts). If you listen to Musk's rhetoric, he seems to have gotten the religion on manufacturing. The problems with getting the model 3 out nearly bankrupted the company and I suspect that taught him a very painful lesson. Keep in mind that compared to the established companies, they are still babes in the woods; they have only released 5 cars. The bad news is that they still have a lot to learn about how to manufacture cars efficiently, the good news is that they are learning and improving. I don't think we will be able to accuse them of the same problems a year or two from now.

 

[gnubie]

Likely not, but I'm sure they will have a whole new set of problems. Autopi sorry, FSD, for example. That's supposedly 'fully working in 5 years'. Take a look at the most recent release trying to self drive in response to a 'summon' in anywhere but an empty lot. See how the steering wheel has a complete fit. Now consider this: the current 'auto-pilot' that people use to 'guide' their cars is using the exact same algos. If I got into a taxi and the driver started doing that with the wheel I'd be exiting again pretty darned quickly.

20 years time, maybe.

 

[EricBarbour]

Yeah, Dave is annoying. But at least he explains things more clearly than (too many) other YouTubers.

Don't forget that he paid a contractor to put grid-tied on his house, and it died after 6 years--because they put an unnecessary cutout switch on the roof. And it leaked and corroded and died. So he got stiffed basically. Nobody's perfect

 

[ArthurEld]

Successful guys play with space ships.

 

[gnubie]

Don't forget that he paid a contractor to put grid-tied on his house, and it died after 6 years--because they put an unnecessary cutout switch on the roof. And it leaked and corroded and died. So he got stiffed basically. Nobody's perfect

If by unnecessary you mean a regulatory requirement, then yes, it was 100% 'unnecessary'. Remember, different countries and even different divisions within those countries can have different regulations to those that exist in your area. It's a big world.

 

[FilterGuy]

Likely not, but I'm sure they will have a whole new set of problems. Autopi sorry, FSD, for example. That's supposedly 'fully working in 5 years'. Take a look at the most recent release trying to self drive in response to a 'summon' in anywhere but an empty lot. See how the steering wheel has a complete fit. Now consider this: the current 'auto-pilot' that people use to 'guide' their cars is using the exact same algos. If I got into a taxi and the driver started doing that with the wheel I'd be exiting again pretty darned quickly.

20 years time, maybe.

yup....Full self driving is always 'just around the corner' (pardon the pun). Full autonomy is a pretty ambitious goal. Reliably handling all the possible scenarios is a gargantuan task, particularly when you are not on an access controlled freeway or you get into snow or fog or other bad weather. They are supposed to release a 'total re-write' soon....I have no doubt it will be better, but time will tell if it is going to be enough. Like I said, I have learned to double or triple Tesla time lines and even that may not be enough for FSD.

As a side note, the self-driving system is going to have to be far better than human drivers before it will be accepted by the authorities.... let alone the general public. They will have systems that would reduce total traffic accidents and deaths long before it will be considered good enough to release.

BTW: Have you ever driven a Tesla? I test drove a model S once and I must say it is a damn impressive vehicle. It is the only car I have ever driven that wowed me. If he can get the price down to 25K and have similar range it will probably be a hell of a car. At battery day Musk was saying 2 - 3 years so it is probably more like 4-6 years, but I think it will happen (But may not have FSD yet).

 

[gnubie]

BTW: Have you ever driven a Tesla?

Suprisingly, yes. It had plenty of get up and go, but I'm not an idiot and know that full tilt it would far exceed my abilities to drive it at that level. If I was 100% in control of the vehicle I wouldn't object to being given one but there's no way in hell I'd be allowing 'auto-pilot' to be anywhere near it for that to happen. The trick is, it's in all their vehicles just not enabled (apparently) which means you are only a bit flip or two away from it suddenly being in control. Having seen just how 'in control' it is when it's enabled, see steering doing backflips, I'd be respectfully declining the offer.

If I was in the market for an EV I'd be looking at the ioniq or something along those lines because it would be a far more practical vehicle for me.

 

[Ampster]

You mean the pouch cells they couldn't get when they first started (because every other car manufacturer uses them)

Every other? Nissan Leaf in 2008? Chevy Volt was in development, who else?

 

[svetz]

I'm not a church-goer, and silly for you to loop me into that camp. I posted the event because it is an event and it was cool. If I was a church-goer, I probably wouldn't have posted it in the humor forum. If I look like that, it's because I've defended Musk against silly accusations; you try getting investors, build whole new businesses, foster innovation, and manage to hit every goal. That is, you force me into the role pointing out flaws in your arguments and when I'm successful at it you say it's because I'm in the church and can't see reason.

But suppose there were members of the church here? Your comments would just inflame them and send the thread way off kilter.

I don't like to put anyone down, especially not folks for daring to dream or making things happen. Those people are brave and should be celebrated because there are always people jealous of their accomplishments ready to tear down them. It sad when people do that.

You've probably never heard the story of Ug the caveman. That's because his tribe was wiped out by mine, so only we know the tale and it pass down through the generations. Ug didn't believe in fire, he thought it was too dangerous and could never be mastered so he made fun of the tribes that used it and forbid his people from playing with it. Yeah, we got burned a lot by it in the beginning...but we hardened our tools with it, kept predators at bay, survived through the cold winters. We became stronger, and that attitude helps us survive even today.

 

[gnubie]

Yes, I'm quite sure there was some dreaming going on when the point to point commuter rocket service was presented by Musk on any number of TV shows, magazine articles and what ever else you like.

There's dreaming something up and then there's "he's dreaming if he thinks he can get that to work". I wonder which category this falls into.

 

[svetz]

......"he's dreaming if he thinks he can get that to work". I wonder which category this falls into.

History just proves how wrong you are, for example:

• Henry's dreaming if he thinks the car will replace the horse
• Wilbur's dreaming if thinks that will fly
• They're dreaming if they think we'll ever walk on the moon.

Most things occur in baby-steps, one small innovation after the other. But in the beginning someone had to dream it. Don't knock the dreamers, personally I like fire, the wheel, and every other thing that led up to air conditioning.

 

[JoeHam]

Likely not, but I'm sure they will have a whole new set of problems. Autopi sorry, FSD, for example. That's supposedly 'fully working in 5 years'. Take a look at the most recent release trying to self drive in response to a 'summon' in anywhere but an empty lot. See how the steering wheel has a complete fit. Now consider this: the current 'auto-pilot' that people use to 'guide' their cars is using the exact same algos. If I got into a taxi and the driver started doing that with the wheel I'd be exiting again pretty darned quickly.

20 years time, maybe.

Phoenix Arizona has had self driving taxis for at least 3 years now.

An “attendant” sits behind the wheel but rarely interacts.

I believe they also have some autonomous grocery delivery vehicles without human involvement.

Edit: I was wrong, they have some driverless:

Waymo’s driverless car: ghost-riding in the back seat of a robot taxi

The Verge took one of the first rides in Waymo’s fully driverless taxis on public roads in Phoenix — and we lived to tell about it.

www.theverge.com