Can the electrical grid handle a boom in electric vehicles?

[svetz]

ref: https://energycentral.com/news/can-electrical-grid-handle-boom-electric-vehicles

A 2020 report by the Department of Energy concludes, “through 2028, the overall power system, from generating through transmission, looks healthy up to about 24 million EVs.” That’s sixteen times the roughly 1.5 million EVs operating in the U.S. today. ... The key is for EV owners to do most of their charging at night when a lot of the electricity generating capacity that already exists is idle. Most utilities will offer low rates to encourage owners to charge then.

“Things get dicey” at about 30 million EVs on U.S. roads, a study by the Department of Energy says. To that end, utilities are upgrading generating, transmission and delivery capacity now for demand in the 2030s.

What do you think?

 

[time2roll]

No issues.

 

[Q-Dog]

I have read this same conclusion elsewhere and it makes sense. I would like to read the DOE study, but didn't see a link to it. Searching.

 

[Zoomyn]

I’ve been staying in a nicer Florida community, some wealth showing, built as single row of houses on two sides of a square mile chunk of land so the utility easement forces everyone to be on same circuit… If these 35 homes all installed at least one 240VAC charger and set chargers to top off batteries the underground aluminum power cables would melt about the same time a few transformers went boom.

Around here has anyone foreseen power outages both BEFORE and after a hurricane when all the hipsters plug in to prepare to evacuate? Remember no one will shut off the air conditioning, cooking, clothes driers, refrigeration and water pumps - they want that AND 7000-12,000 watts for each car…

On a national & regional scale YES there will be problems, the NIMBY’s will block new transmission lines as fiercely as they do pipelines and God help us if the natural gas pipelines ever stutter so the new cleaner power plants they feed get starved..

 

[Northernchateau]

It will be interesting to see how fast that market grows.
In my area I have never see a Leaf and only seen a few Volts.
Others cars like a Tesla few and far between.

 

[svetz]

I have read this same conclusion elsewhere and it makes sense. I would like to read the DOE study, but didn't see a link to it. Searching.

There's a 2019 report here: https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/f...t Scale Grid Summary Report FINAL Nov2019.pdf

But yeah, it'd be nice to see to the 2020 report.

 

[ereams65]

Great question and I have a feeling that inside the next decade, we are going to see a huge increase in EV ownership. Didn't Chevrolet say that by 2025 they will no longer offer a gas powered vehicle in their lineup?

 

[Hedges]

The grid is able to deliver peaks of power, possibly variable maximum depending on time of day.
There are times when the grid is under-utilized.
I believe that control of loads to fill in valleys (and shave peaks) if far higher leverage and more economical than grid-scale storage.
If you estimate electric cars will be parked 21 hours out of every day, they should be available for charging whenever the grid wants them to.
Selling people electric cars will be easier than selling them thermal mass, but thermal storage to time-shift electric heating & cooling could help too.

With grid near 100% utilized (4.25 x 10^4 MW in chart below) we may find fuel delivery can't keep up, higher capacity needed. And streams don't refill hydro reservoirs fast enough.

... and God help us if the natural gas pipelines ever stutter so the new cleaner power plants they feed get starved..

Not going to be an issue for California - we plan to decommission natural gas

 

[jwelter99]

Grid sourced will become an issue. We already see the grid start to break down in several areas under not-so-peak demands.

Think of current gas stations.... they are not connected via pipelines to have endless capacity. They have local storage and ongoing operations to keep that local storage supplied.

These dispersed EV charge points are already one step better then the gas station networks as generation (solar) and storage are both local in most cases; with grid used to back-fill when local generation/storage can not cover the peaks.

The challenge will be to get EV charge points deployed with enough volume to cover the needs. Right now between DC and NYC there is often a 1+ hour wait to get plugged in at the few SuperCharge stations - so your stop time becomes 1.5 to 2 hours total.

We recently did a trip in our Audi Q5 Diesel with another family in a Tesla X for a family trip to Florida. Left DC area fully fueled, and Tesla fully charged. The Q5 made it into Orlando with one refuel stop in 13.5 hours. The Tesla took 19 hours due to needing 3 stops to charge, each taking >1.5 hours by the time getting off highway, waiting for free charge port, doing a full charge, and getting back onto highway.

We had made it to Orlando, stopped at the Walmart for the grocery pickup and to refuel, and got to the rental home and unpacked and settled, cooked dinner, had a family swim for a few hours, and were sleeping when the other vehicle arrived..... Those were good family memories lost due to the inadequate EV charge capacity along that route.

 

[OnTheRoadAgain]

Tesla has missed the boat already.

The entire body from front of the front bumper, over the roof and down the back and on both sides should all be PV cells helping to boost the battery. 60sq ft of high efficiency PV cells.

The finish should be functional....not a glossy, pretty color..

 

[ereams65]

Maybe there's a reason with crash/safety ratings using PV cells. I can imagine those cells would get pretty warm to the touch down here in the Florida sun.

 

[svetz]

The grid is able to deliver peaks of power, possibly variable maximum depending on time of day.

Wouldn't surprise me if legislation appears in states that car charging gets its very own TOU (recognizable by the grid similar to what @45North said about his utility's fingerprint capabilities (similar to the Sense Energy Monitor) to force EV owners to charge primarily at night.

 

[OnTheRoadAgain]

Maybe there's a reason with crash/safety ratings using PV cells. I can imagine those cells would get pretty warm to the touch down here in the Florida sun.

Could be. But the painted surface gets just as hot as PV cells would. Especially dark colors

 

[jwelter99]

Wouldn't surprise me if legislation appears in states that car charging gets its very own TOU (recognizable by the grid similar to what @45North said about his utility's fingerprint capabilities (similar to the Sense Energy Monitor) to force EV owners to charge primarily at night.

Most areas already have peak and off peak rates; with off-peak being the periods most of us sleep.

 

[45North]

Wouldn't surprise me if legislation appears in states that car charging gets its very own TOU (recognizable by the grid similar to what @45North said about his utility's fingerprint capabilities (similar to the Sense Energy Monitor) to force EV owners to charge primarily at night.

To improve my predicted usage breakdown my utility offers a voluntary survey and one of the questions is Do you have an EV? (which I struggled to answer because I have an ebike but not an E car so I finally decided to answer No, that's not what they were interested. I can typically re-charge after a 30Km ride within 2 hours at 300W.)
My utility is in Canada.

 

[Zoomyn]

"Off-peak' rate inducements are a relic from coal fired steam plants since IF they idled them down the fuel & time required to get each segment back at its most efficient operating temperatures drastically increases fuel costs & wear to the burners/boilers/cooling systems..

It is embarrassing to think of the nearly free power States and municipalities have gotten in the last eighty years for night time streetlights - all that non-renewable energy potential beamed as light out into space so power plants operators could build out at higher capacities to enjoy the discount of scale for near peak demands and the Gov't sometimes got the promise/appearance of excess capacity to lure in new industry & development.

 

[curiouscarbon]

Tesla has missed the boat already.

The entire body from front of the front bumper, over the roof and down the back and on both sides should all be PV cells helping to boost the battery. 60sq ft of high efficiency PV cells.

The finish should be functional....not a glossy, pretty color..

strongly agree that PV belongs on vehicles.

trolls on the internet LOVE to point out how slowly it accumulates range. that’s their way of being rude and making up for their dreams not being encouraged.

a constant trickle charge from the sun will offset the constant power requirements of just sitting there

absolutely enough to run the basic radio and interface

maybe enough to cover part of the HVAC power for part of the day

maybe enough to get a mile or two of range a day, which is like having a magic oil pipeline into ya car

 

[Ampster]

What do you think?

I do not see issues in California. I don't know enough about other states to offer an opinion.

 

[Ampster]

Wouldn't surprise me if legislation appears in states that car charging gets its very own TOU

California already has an EV TOU rate. Also I participate in a program that lets a DER provider shut off my charging station if it is on when the grid is stressed. I get paid $5 a month for that but of course I always charge from solar during the day or super off peak late at night.

 

[Ampster]

trolls on the internet LOVE to point out how slowly it accumulates range. that’s their way of being rude and making up for their dreams not being encouraged.

I am one of those Trolls, Should I apologize first so you won't consider it rude but as a personal preference, I would rather have my solar panels on my roof instead of my car?