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China Halts Rare Earth Element Exports to USA. Here we go..

Will Prowse

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And it begins. This is what I was talking about in my video on tariffs. Do you think we have the negotiating ability when we do not process any of these? We have been trying to catch up and we are so far behind it is wild!
 
Walmart better hope they don't put a halt on plastic crap.

Quite honestly, the worst that will come of this is a mushroom cloud and the roaches can start again.
Best case scenario, America has to grab ahold of their boot straps, put down their phones, get out of the Starbucks line, and start to rebuild this country.
 
Where there’s a void, someone else will fill it.
Other countries like India are chomping at the bit for this opportunity and yes tooling up will take some time, years in some cases. In the meantime it’ll be a nightmare for China to ensure that rare earth metals and products aren’t rerouted through a third party. Oh this’ll be giant game of bop a mole. It’s great that the Chinese have done so much innovation in some fields, I’m sure that they wouldn’t mind a little borrowing? Turn about is fair play, right? Remember, food and fuel will continue as before. We’ll be fine. No mask and toilet paper shortages.
 
Best case scenario, America has to grab ahold of their boot straps, put down their phones, get out of the Starbucks line, and start to rebuild this country.
Yep. But in that best case scenario, we regress to a 1950's economy as the rest of the world (India, China, Russia mainly) starts outcompeting us, outleading us and running the world.
 

And it begins.
It will be interesting to see if Musk, who is reliant on such imports, breaks with Trump over this.

I had a bunch of Tesla stock that did very well for me. I recently unloaded it all because the future of Tesla will depend on the future of the Trump/Musk relationship rather than any technical, financial or organizational metrics. And Trump has a habit of throwing his biggest supporters under the bus whenever it benefits him in the slightest.
 
It will be interesting to see if Musk, who is reliant on such imports, breaks with Trump over this.
I'm not so sure. It has been reported Musk hates these tariffs, but due to their impact on his own interests. While he heads DOGE for now based on national interests, so we assume he's performing for the higher moral goal and he indicates this is the case. Also, Musk identifies more clearly with rational hard power, which tariffs are an exercise of hard power, with the more esoteric soft power Trump also has to navigate, which is mostly foreign to Musk. I think they understand one another, and there would have to be an obnoxious falling out to result in a bus throwing incident. That doesn't seem rational, productive or likely. Doesn't mean they won't publicly disagree.
 
Everyone keeps talking about how we need to do this and I absolutely agree 100%. What I'm trying to figure out is how we're going to do it. Or if we can catch up fast enough.
I knew about the rare earth issue at least ten years ago and realized then that the only reason china was doing it was to put themselves in a position to leverage the world, just like they did with Japan some years back. They used many methods to become the monopoly of metal like when they realize that a new start up venture was about to produce, they would artificially flood the market below cost, supporting their suppliers with subsidies until they choke the competition then swoop in and buy it or not. They use our own environmental laws and activists to stop every venture. It’s so cheap to fund environmental groups through shell corporations and tell them go sick’em. So cheap to fund lobbying groups for the right politicians who pressure agencies to act against targeted businesses. Maybe, just maybe we’ll have eyes watching for any future shenanigans. This country can do anything, but we have to understand that we have been under attack for many years from the inside, everything from the economy to morally. Identify the unwitting puppets of the CCP and that’s a big start.
 
I think we would have been better off if the exact nature of the tariffs had been announced way ahead of time, to give industry time to re-shore so there wouldn't be so much chaos. I mean we knew they were coming, but I think we needed more info beforehand so we knew how to prepare for it.

I was afraid that something like this would happen and decided to buy all the stuff for my solar project way ahead of time just in case. I probably should have stocked up more. :(

I mean don't get me wrong, I do think tariffs the are the right move, but the execution could have been a little more transparent.
 
And it begins. This is what I was talking about in my video on tariffs. Do you think we have the negotiating ability when we do not process any of these? We have been trying to catch up and we are so far behind it is wild!
This was guaranteed to happen if we did anything to really piss off China. They did it before with Japan.
One would assume that if your going to pull the trigger you have already braced yourself for the recoil, so it's very likely that the Military with their huge budget has been over ordering the Items they need since the time when they decided that the Chinese threat to take Taiwan was real.

At the minimum this would be 2022 when Biden created the Chips act and put up 280 billion to fund it. This was a clear signal to China that the US considered a War over Taiwan to be imminent.
That plus the Massive build up of Wake Island and numerous other Pacific bases since 2019 is a sure sign that they have been planning for the worst.

I suspect that if anyone was caught off Guard it was Xi Jinping who probably thought that Trump would never win the election and if he did Win he would never throw our economy under the Bus in his first 100 days in office.
 
Everyone keeps talking about how we need to do this and I absolutely agree 100%. What I'm trying to figure out is how we're going to do it. Or if we can catch up fast enough.
Perhaps some large, national entity could step in and help with funding for new factories, refineries, and mining... like some sort of corporate welfare?

Oh, sorry, the current administration wants small government with limited powers and regulations so that will never happen.
 
America has nothing except a rapidly becoming worthless paper dollar backed by nothing, massive debt, a military that is a very expensive shadow of its former glory days, and Trump is pointing a gun at the rest of the world shrieking DO AS I SAY or else.

Only thing that will work now, is close all the foreign US military bases, bring all the boys back home to police the borders.
Cut ALL foreign aid to zero, especially to Israel.
Join BRICS as a humble and well intended EQUAL partner, and pray.
Stomp hard on domestic crime and corruption, as he seems to be already doing.
Fix the education system, and crack down hard on all this perverted woke crap.

Too little too late I am afraid.
 
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The whole thing is so crazy. We're going to cause ourselves a recession for almost no reason. I say almost because there are some things we should be making here in the US, but there are good ways to get that done without shooting ourselves in the foot. And clearly the government is realizing some of the problems it's causing, with the flip flops and the series of exemptions, but I'm not clear they're going to be able to turn it into a reasonable policy before a lot of people lose their jobs.
 
The whole thing is so crazy. We're going to cause ourselves a recession for almost no reason. I say almost because there are some things we should be making here in the US, but there are good ways to get that done without shooting ourselves in the foot. And clearly the government is realizing some of the problems it's causing, with the flip flops and the series of exemptions, but I'm not clear they're going to be able to turn it into a reasonable policy before a lot of people lose their jobs.
We are a country of people addicted to consumption for pleasure.
The country that is feeding our addiction is using our money and our media to undermine all of us.

What would you like us to do?
China is making their future plans very clear. So we either take control of the Narrative now and suffer some pain or we keep funding them until they control the narrative.
 
It will take a minimum of four years for the US to be able to source and refine heavy rare earths, assuming that some work has been going on for the past 5-10 years. Critical needs will be marginally ok, but EVs will be hit hard (likely shifting to lower efficiency induction motors).
 
Everyone keeps talking about how we need to do this and I absolutely agree 100%. What I'm trying to figure out is how we're going to do it. Or if we can catch up fast enough.
You do what Trump has been hinting at doing which is create a scenario in which countries need to negotiate with you because their economy is reliant on you. As part of the deal, you go after mineral rights in their country. You also open some of our mineral rights up in our own country. However, history has shown that superpowers take minerals from other countries instead of depleting their own stock. The issue is we don't have many mining companies left.
 
Everyone keeps talking about how we need to do this and I absolutely agree 100%. What I'm trying to figure out is how we're going to do it. Or if we can catch up fast enough.
Trump's remaining term is shorter than the time it will take to make major changes to national supply chains.

Most companies will quietly tolerate the tariffs and attempt to placate Trump for concessions ... and hope to wait until after the mid-term elections to make major decisions. If the republicans get routed, companies will go back to business as usual, and wait for the end of Trump's lame duck administration. Trump will probably try to destroy it all on his way out because he didn't get his way.

Or, it could all fall apart before any of that happens.
 

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