China Halts Rare Earth Element Exports to USA. Here we go..

[Brett V]

I agree but how do you plan we do this? Why did the last tariffs not reshore manufacturing or processing?

The US needs to secure raw materials at home and become a net exporter instead of an importer. It's going to be expensive and cause some hardships for a while. As was mentioned above, people are going to have to put down their phones and get to work. We're in a precarious position with regards to national security, healthcare necessities, the electronics our society relies on. We can fix stupid but it's going to hurt a lot.

 

[DPC]

Do you think we have the negotiating ability when we do not process any of these? We have been trying to catch up and we are so far behind it is wild!

You do have them rare is meant to say they are not found in natural high concentrations on earth.
They are not all that rare.
With Trump cutting pollution regulations you may see some refining operations start now that they are going to be allowed make some messes.

Oh be careful what you wish for.
The fact you do not have new places that look like this speaks volumes for how much the smart people getting fired by Trump have worked to protect you..

Rare Earth Elements in coal fly ash and their potential recovery

Coal fly ash is a potential resource of valuable elements, such as rare earth elements (REEs), which are retained and concentrated upon combustion. Understanding REE occurrence within fly ash is vital to developing recovery methods. Some of the highest REE contents occur in fly ash derived from...

www.usgs.gov

Considering the numbers, just how much fly ash you have in need of cleaning up.
You could kill two birds with one stone.
But up to this point its been cheaper to import these metals than trying to cleanly refine them yourselves.

 

[DPC]

The US needs to secure raw materials at home and become a net exporter instead of an importer.

Problems.
The Nimbys....
The lack of viable sources of some of these metals.
Lack of people who know how to build and operate these refineries.

You just cant say we need to do this when in the case of problem #2.
You lack the resources, that means you do not have economically viable ore bodies
You can't make something from nothing....

 

[DPC]

Everyone keeps talking about how we need to do this and I absolutely agree 100%. What I'm trying to figure out is how we're going to do it. Or if we can catch up fast enough.

What resources you do have could be used.
It will take 10 years to build get the first metals to market if you start now and move fast( not worry too much about environmental approvals and economic viability of these plants ect )

 

[Q-Dog]

It will be interesting to see if Musk, who is reliant on such imports, breaks with Trump over this.

I had a bunch of Tesla stock that did very well for me. I recently unloaded it all because the future of Tesla will depend on the future of the Trump/Musk relationship rather than any technical, financial or organizational metrics. And Trump has a habit of throwing his biggest supporters under the bus whenever it benefits him in the slightest.

I think their honeymoon is already over.

 

[Will Prowse]

You do what Trump has been hinting at doing which is create a scenario in which countries need to negotiate with you because their economy is reliant on you. As part of the deal, you go after mineral rights in their country. You also open some of our mineral rights up in our own country. However, history has shown that superpowers take minerals from other countries instead of depleting their own stock. The issue is we don't have many mining companies left.

Are they truly reliant on us if all we provide in return is a dollar that is expensive to use and loses value fast? We weaponize the dollar for decades and people are figuring it out.

 

[Will Prowse]

What resources you do have could be used.
It will take 10 years to build get the first metals to market if you start now and move fast( not worry too much about environmental approvals and economic viability of these plants ect )

My understanding is that we have been trying to rapidly develop rare earth element processing for the last five years and we are still incredibly behind. Our tech just isn't there.

This is why I think we made deal with Ukraine. They have lots of rare earth elements, but again, availability not the issue, it's processing them at large volumes with high purity. Very difficult.

 

[Brett V]

Problems.
The Nimbys....
The lack of viable sources of some of these metals.
Lack of people who know how to build and operate these refineries.

You just cant say we need to do this when in the case of problem #2.
You lack the resources, that means you do not have economically viable ore bodies
You can't make something from nothing....

Oh we can't do it. It's going to be too hard. Too inconvenient. Too expensive. I guess letting China become boss of the world is easier.
Not running the race because people on the sidelines say you can't win is not a good strategy.

 

[Zwy]

America has nothing except a rapidly becoming worthless paper dollar backed by nothing, massive debt, a military that is a very expensive shadow of its former glory days, and Trump is pointing a gun at the rest of the world shrieking DO AS I SAY or else.

You're looking at this from the outside world. I see this as an opportunity for the US to become independent from much of the outside world. Globalization is dead, countries are moving towards a multi polar world once again where they promote their self interests. This is an important shift in world politics and this is the direction things are heading, whether you like or don't like it.

I don't think Trump really cares if other countries do business with the US or not. If they do business with the US, it should be on US terms and not where a country can import into the US but restricts imports from the US.

 

[jeeptj12]

Are they truly reliant on us if all we provide in return is a dollar that is expensive to use and loses value fast? We weaponize the dollar for decades and people are figuring it out.

China weaponizes currency right back. Service doesn't create wealth. It only transfers hands. Manufacturing creates wealth when you take something from a raw material and actually make it into a useable good. China is taking our wealth. We have little left and are buying most on credit that we now can't afford to pay the interest on. However, China is reliant on our purchasing of their goods. It does appear they are trying to pivot their reliance away from the US.

 

[Dagoth Ur Does Solar]

I am no geopolitics expert, but this export ban is to pretty much to all the western nations, not just the USA, right?

Seems like a play by China in hopes that western allies will put pressure on the US to capitulate, when I view it as a time that this should be a wake up call to all of the west that China can cut you off at any time. Should really be a time where the west really should have a unified understanding that the free world has a vested interest in having the capability to operate independently of adversarial nations. Do we have the drive for that? I don't know. China's play could work, with as much seething as the US's allies do over the current administration.

At the very least, I feel western nations should be unifying on trying to prevent China from playing currency manipulation games, helping adversaries do things like bypass sanctions, etc. Again, unsure if there is the willpower to do that.

Anyways, circling to Will's point, I agree; When I was digging in on this topic, it seems like there are companies that want to do this type of work, but private capital is not willing to invest in the risky businesses involved here. We're basically standing up an entire industrial sector from scratch, as Will said, you need both mining, processing, logistics, etc. for all of this to happen. Private capital won't invest in your company to mine if there's nowhere but China that can process the resources.

The point I ended up at is that, if we really want to have this type of industry back in the US... I'm going to say a dirty phrase here: the government probably would end up having to initially subsidize it with at the very least tax incentives, if not full on loans and grants.

This is why I think we made deal with Ukraine. They have lots of rare earth elements, but again, availability not the issue, it's processing them at large volumes with high purity. Very difficult.

I will be really curious how to see if anything comes of the offered minerals deal in the Congo.

On one hand, I certainly don't want to pump money and weapons into an African "civil war" (though it really seems to be neighboring countries backing rebel forces), but if that did somehow play out in the long term to where the US actually has mineral sources/rights in Africa, that would at least be some kind of bulwark against China. As Europe has basically ceded absolutely all formerly colonial interests in Africa to Chinese/Russian backed leaders, it's pretty much resulted in China having access to all the mineral resources on the continent.

Just using this to point out that where Europe and the US give up any imperial ambitions, that vacuum has been immediately filled by China. I think I do believe in that "nature abhors a vacuum" bit.

 

[Q-Dog]

China is reliant on our purchasing of their goods.

China is reliant on selling stuff to countries with money that are willing to spend it. The last numbers I saw show the US buys about 15% of China's overall output. China will be fine without the US.

 

[rhino]

TSMC in Phoenix is probably best example of how to do it with really no drastic interruptions or ticking off of people.

 

[DPC]

This is why I think we made deal with Ukraine.

Somebody told Trump they had a lot of rare earth metals.
Well sort of, yes I guess...
They have about 5% of the worlds reserves.
But they are difficult to get and there is no infrastructure there to refine them.

You may have noticed Trump says he makes discussions based on his gut.
Former white house officials have said that he gets bored in briefings very easily and needs very short to the point facts, and things that catch his attention to keep him interested....
Someone has put it in that man's head that the solution to your rare earth problems might be in Ukraine.

That's not really true.
But it got his attention at a time people have been trying to get him involved in Ukraine..

You have to really drill down into this stuff to understand it.
Simplistic statements like make a deal to get this stuff completely ignore how hard it is to build complicated refineries and metallurgical plants that operate in an environmentally tolerable manner...

The country with the highest reserves of Cobalt for example Congo.
The country with the highest production of Cobalt is Indonesia.
The reason is the Cobalt is a bi product of Nickel mining...
So Indonesia can turn what would not be an economically viable to extract metal into something they can make money as a bi product.

This is complicated.
Trump makes it sound simple.
He is simple boarding on an idiot and hes trying to get a resource from Ukraine that might not be worth anything.
The difference between waste and ore is does it make economic sense to extract it...

This was Elliot lake.
One of the most important sources of Uranium in thew world at one time.
Between this place and the blind river refinery it was developed at break neck pace to feed the nuclear industry.
It was there first and the ore body is huge vast an elephant in mining terms.....
But its all gone now, not because they don't have uranium, but because if you go to Sask they have much higher grades, cheaper to mine ( much smaller reserves but hats not important ( what is important is you can make money doing it )

Remembering Elliot Lake

This is the Elliot Lake that I first met my eyes in 1958 when I arrived there with my mother and father and my 5 siblings. The population o...

toms-randomthoughts.blogspot.com

But you guys don't get this...
There are a lot of reasons why you do not do things in the USA.
Ore bodies are one of them ( or lack there of )..

 

[Dagoth Ur Does Solar]

TSMC in Phoenix is probably best example of how to do it with really no drastic interruptions or ticking off of people.

While I'm all in favor of the TSMC plant, it's not fair to say it didn't tick off -anyone-.

The Taiwanese government is super spooked about this. Look into the concept of the "silicon shield".

One of Taiwan's bulwarks against the PRC is that Taiwan can make a lot of the advanced semiconductors that the PRC cannot, and the PRC is forced to buy from them. Their government fears that if China has the possibility of acquiring these elsewhere, it would further China's plans to simply invade.

 

[45North]

Canada has lots of rare earth minerals and the technology to get them from ocean floor nodules.
I see also that the US wants to stockpile these for strategic /military? purposes.

 

[Chispas]

I agree but how do you plan we do this? Why did the last tariffs not reshore manufacturing or processing?

For many reasons. Cost is the obvious one but supply chains us probably a more important factor. The I phone supply chain involves 42 different countries, to unpick that, if it’s possible may take years.?

 

[Dagoth Ur Does Solar]

Canada has lots of rare earth minerals and the technology to get them from ocean floor nodules.
I see also that the US wants to stockpile these for strategic /military? purposes.

I am not Canadian so please forgive my ignorance, but I keep hearing the problem is agreements made with natives as well as Canada's environmental policies. From what a couple Canadians I talked to said, this basically has put an utter halt on virtually any new resource exploitation up north. I would be curious to hear from Canadians here if you all think that's the case.

Similar stuff in the US where one administration may refuse to issue new oil drilling/mining/etc permits- ostensibly because we want to be good stewards of the environment- but then we are stuck in a position where we still need those resources, and someone else (China, Russia, middle east, whoever) will do the mining/drilling anyways, and then we buy it from them at a premium. But even if the next administration DOES issue permits for it, they could be revoked before you even get up and running by the next administration.

I think that mercurial facet of the executive having so much power over the environmental policy/issuance of industrial permits really hampers businesses from wanting to do anything domestically. So much investment required to build, say, your new pipeline, over a 2-10 year period or whatever, when in four years the next guy can say "cancel it!" on day one and you're just SOL at worst, or at best, stuck in a lengthy legal battle where you're paralyzed in the courts for years.

 

[Chispas]

Walmart better hope they don't put a halt on plastic crap.

Quite honestly, the worst that will come of this is a mushroom cloud and the roaches can start again.
Best case scenario, America has to grab ahold of their boot straps, put down their phones, get out of the Starbucks line, and start to rebuild this country.

60% of Walmart stock comes from China. Walmart are the biggest employer in the USA.70% of Amazon stock is from China. Other physical store retailers are less exposed but this sector accounts for millions of jobs if you include transport and warehouses. Most of these folks earn low wages & can barely make it to the end of the month now. Rising prices & layoffs are going to hammer these folks.

 

[DPC]

Oh we can't do it. It's going to be too hard. Too inconvenient. Too expensive. I guess letting China become boss of the world is easier.
Not running the race because people on the sidelines say you can't win is not a good strategy.

This is the crux of the problem...

Will you pay Americans 10 dollars an hour to create some of the biggest environmental nightmares at a loss?
I don't think you get it...
You are not informed, you don't understand the problem.

As an American you think you can have and do anything.
Its been told to you since you were a child and you think its true.
America is exceptional and can do anything and your number #1 at when ever you set your mind too.
We you can't.
Wanting wishing hoping even throwing mountains of money at a problem will not solve every problem..

You might need to swallow that pride and find countries that are friendly to supply the things you need rather that try and re invent the wheel and make them at a loss..
That's not going not be easy while you tariff and piss off the rest of the world too...

Even if you secure these resources are you any good at using them?
Again look at history and the semi conductor industry.
The point contact transistor was first made and sold commercially in the USA ( some people think it was invented at Bell labs and not in England ).
They sucked!
Sony made the first good reliable transistor for commercial use.
But you think you did with Texas instruments....
That's what your history books tell you

You can say the Japanese copied and learned from the USA.
Yes that is true you did not take them seriously.
Then they figured out what you were doing wrong and they solved the transistor problem.
It was cheaper to use the Sony transistor than the TI transistor and history is full of examples like this.

What was the difference between what Japan did and Americans could not?
Well you would have to research that yourself because I don't have all day to talk about how you refine Germanium crystals.
What is important is it was cheaper to buy them from outside suppliers and it actually made sense from an economic perspective to stick with that suply chain as it developed.

Do you understand what I am trying to tell you?
A lot of what you are trying to do alone by yourself make no sense....

 

[DPC]

Canada has lots of rare earth minerals and the technology to get them from ocean floor nodules.
I see also that the US wants to stockpile these for strategic /military? purposes.

A lot of that is stuff we don't want to get involved in.
The damage to the sea bed in other countries ( our reputation would take a serious hit for decades )
A lot of these metals are BI PRODUCTS!!!.
We are not producing steel from the kinds of iron ore, and using the kinds of fluxes, and coal that would even make by bi product recovery feasible.

 

[Chispas]

We are a country of people addicted to consumption for pleasure.

Maybe that’s true? I don’t know but buying useless crap with borrowed money sadly underpins much of our economies.

 

[DPC]

From what a couple Canadians I talked to said, this basically has put an utter halt on virtually any new resource exploitation up north. I would be curious to hear from Canadians here if you all think that's the case.

Yes the courts have made judgments that the Indians have a right to be consulted for things like mine son traditional lands.
They want a big cut of the profits and leverage on the rest of the country.
The ring of fire is a good example

Is this a viable place to mine?
Where will you build a refinery?

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169136822001949

Ring of Fire (Northern Ontario) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I am a NIMBY when it comes to letting Cliffs build a chrome plant near me...
And I live in the shadow of mother Inco....

 

[Chispas]

You can say the Japanese copied and learned from the USA.
Yes that is true you did not take them seriously.

Vance said this recently, that the offshored production was supposed to be a screwdriver operation for low tech stuff but the Chinese are in fact quite good at inventing and developing stuff.

 

[Jmhai3]

I think we would have been better off if the exact nature of the tariffs had been announced way ahead of time, to give industry time to re-shore so there wouldn't be so much chaos. I mean we knew they were coming, but I think we needed more info beforehand so we knew how to prepare for it.

I was afraid that something like this would happen and decided to buy all the stuff for my solar project way ahead of time just in case. I probably should have stocked up more.

I mean don't get me wrong, I do think tariffs the are the right move, but the execution could have been a little more transparent.

But this is about negotiations and if you're playing cards do you lay them on the table right side up so everyone can see your hand?