China Halts Rare Earth Element Exports to USA. Here we go..

[DPC]

Oh we can't do it. It's going to be too hard. Too inconvenient. Too expensive. I guess letting China become boss of the world is easier.
Not running the race because people on the sidelines say you can't win is not a good strategy.

Look for alternatives that might be cheaper.
You can make good magnets with other materials than Neodymium.
Hey its that transitory story from another angle again....

Japanese Advances in Rare Earth Alternatives Bring Many Advantages | JAPAN Forward

China has a chokehold on access to rare earth minerals used in technologies such as EV engines. These new alternatives will provide welcome supply chain relief.

japan-forward.com

Trump cutting Billions from Universities where research is done on exactly theses kinds of problems is counter productive.
Its not the Tranys and Palestinians the man hates.
Its the educated intellectual class, the experts...
They vote for Democrats...

All this comes around at some point.
today's Stupid choices are tomorrows lost opportunities.

 

[Chispas]

The US needs to secure raw materials at home and become a net exporter instead of an importer. It's going to be expensive and cause some hardships for a while. As was mentioned above, people are going to have to put down their phones and get to work. We're in a precarious position with regards to national security, healthcare necessities, the electronics our society relies on. We can fix stupid but it's going to hurt a lot.

Im trying to work out how all those lazy, stupid people generate 25% of global GDP whilst making up just over 4% of the world’s population?

 

[Hedges]

Im trying to work out how all those lazy, stupid people generate 25% of global GDP whilst making up just over 4% of the world’s population?

Because our rate of pay is 10x to 100x what people in 3rd world countries earn?

Every time we make anything, from a hamburger to a jacket to a house to a piece of equipment, the dollar value is proportionately greater.
That is why importing from some countries supports large markup.

Our GDP is calculated based on our value of goods. Even though same goods might be worth a fraction as much elsewhere.

 

[DPC]

Im trying to work out how all those lazy, stupid people generate 25% of global GDP whilst making up just over 4% of the world’s population?

I'm not going to dignify that with an answer other than to say the American voter ( who is not stupid or lazy ) is making some awful choices out of anger.

This anger brought to power men that will do unspeakable things to stay in power and warp America into something that looks after those who interest is most easily served at the expense of everyone else.....
The Hungary effect on a much larger scale...

 

[Chispas]

But this is about negotiations and if you're playing cards do you lay them on the table right side up so everyone can see your hand?

It’s not negociaciones that Trump is doing its threats and blackmail. Even with the size of the US economy and military it’s going to be very hard for Trump to bully the entire world on his own.

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said some deals with countries will be announced "very soon".

Number of countries so far that have confirmed a deal = 0

 

[DPC]

While I'm all in favor of the TSMC plant, it's not fair to say it didn't tick off -anyone-.

The Taiwanese government is super spooked about this. Look into the concept of the "silicon shield".

One of Taiwan's bulwarks against the PRC is that Taiwan can make a lot of the advanced semiconductors that the PRC cannot, and the PRC is forced to buy from them. Their government fears that if China has the possibility of acquiring these elsewhere, it would further China's plans to simply invade.

History is full of examples.

The Germans who were highly educated and motivated failed to create a semi conductor industry after they bet the farm on it.
Be sure you don't repeat these mistakes.

Electronics industry in East Germany - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Jmhai3]

My understanding is that we have been trying to rapidly develop rare earth element processing for the last five years and we are still incredibly behind. Our tech just isn't there.

This is why I think we made deal with Ukraine. They have lots of rare earth elements, but again, availability not the issue, it's processing them at large volumes with high purity. Very difficult.

Very difficult but not impossible.
Edit to add forgot to say this is based on the material coming from the Ukraine not local.

China game plan is to always undercut or outperform the competition. sometimes thru theft/dirty plays or just straight up cheaper.
If other countries start building the plants (even small) to process them, they (China) know eventually they will be out of the game to some degree and so their nature kicks in and they start outperforming/undercutting to maintain a small hold on the majority of the market. We all win because the material will get cheaper to access and once the other countries are producing (and using) some for their personal need the overall cost goes down.

This is a big if but could be a way it could work out.

 

[Chispas]

Because our rate of pay is 10x to 100x what people in 3rd world countries earn?

Every time we make anything, from a hamburger to a jacket to a house to a piece of equipment, the dollar value is proportionately greater.
That is why importing from some countries supports large markup.

Our GDP is calculated based on our value of goods. Even though same goods might be worth a fraction as much elsewhere.

Thats plasuabe but it irks me to see folks labelled as stupid & lazy when things go wrong. During COVID most of the essential workers were those who worked hardest for the lowest wage.

 

[DPC]

If other countries start building the plants (even small) to process them, they (China) know eventually they will be out of the game to some degree and so their nature kicks in and they start outperforming/undercutting to maintain a small hold on the majority of the market.

A chinese solution to shortages of nickel.
BUT at what terrible price.
What does this mean long term for places like Indonesia?

Nickel pig iron - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

And its not new...

1918 Coniston works a blast furnace technology abandoned decades ago because of how dirty it was.
But if you don't care, you can create a redux process to refine laterite ore on the cheap, developed from this old Sulphide process...

Not a fucking thing grew here!
It was a hellscape being repeated in China and Indonesia.

WHY WOULD YOU WANT TO DO THIS IN YOUR COUNTRY TODAY????

100 years later.
This is what it looks like...
Thats a pond of acid nothing lives in.

 

[Jmhai3]

It’s not negociaciones that Trump is doing its threats and blackmail. Even with the size of the US economy and military it’s going to be very hard for Trump to bully the entire world on his own.

Number of countries so far that have confirmed a deal = 0

Threats are a negotiation technique and blackmail is also threating but I personally think it is holding a secret(s) (unknow) information over someone's head with threating to release it if they don't comply.

Has he threated blackmail against any countries?

If you don't clean your room I will take your Gameboy. Threat.
If you don't clean your room, I will tell everyone that you slept with the neighbor's dog. Blackmail.

 

[Jmhai3]

A chinese solution to shortages of nickel.
BUT at what terrible price.
What does this mean long term for places like Indonesia?

Nickel pig iron - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

And its not new...

1918 Coniston works a blast furnace technology abandoned decades ago because of how dirty it was.
But if you don't care, you can create a redux process to refine laterite ore on the cheap, developed from this old Sulphide process...
View attachment 292839
Not a fucking thing grew here!
It was a hellscape being repeated in China and Indonesia.

WHY WOULD YOU WANT TO DO THIS IN YOUR COUNTRY TODAY????

100 years later.
This is what it looks like...
Thats a pond of acid nothing lives in.
View attachment 292840

Not saying there is a perfect answer and innovation and changes would need to be made to the process and challenges meet to make it happen, just saying it is a path that could develop with the right circumstance and sometimes blind luck.

 

[JohnGyver]

China ratchets up trade war by halting rare earth exports

These metals are sometimes turned into powerful magnets that are crucial to heavy industry, like EV production.

www.morningbrew.com

And it begins. This is what I was talking about in my video on tariffs. Do you think we have the negotiating ability when we do not process any of these? We have been trying to catch up and we are so far behind it is wild!

Will, I work in the electronics manufacturing sector. These tariffs, now at 245% plus the Section 301 tariffs on top of that, are killer for our business. To be brutally honest, it flat out sucks.

However, this is something that needed to be done for decades. The politicians of the 70's who sold our country out and shipped our manufacturing sector (jobs) overseas has made America far weaker today and has created our biggest adversary in the process. China, who wants to do nothing more than knock the US of the throne, take over as the Defacto world superpower and place the Chinese Yaun as the world reserve currency. If that ever happened, we as Americans are screwed and we will see our US dollar devalue so much that all Americans will go down the social class spectrum. People who are wealthy will become middle class, people who are middle class will be the new poverty level class, etc.

The tariff amount is not the key point in this trade war. The key point is balanced trade. If We buy 1 billion in goods from China, China needs to buy the same 1 billion in goods from the US. That is balanced trade, that is good. But when we send them 5 billion or more in US dollars and they only send us 1 billion in return.... for decades, that is how we built the beast who aims to take us down. The US has funded the entire modernization of China, their entire military and setup the factories that are killing us today. America is no longer a nation that produces. We are a nation of spenders. As a "Consumer Economy" we are completely reliant on our adversary to make our daily world go around, while funneling way too many US dollars to the nation that we built up, that now wants to take us down.

That being said, I believe it is time to "balance things out"... stop the excess flow of US dollars to the nation who wants to sit at the top and put our Great Nation below them. This will help America to go back to some level of producing real GDP here in the USA through manufacturing, will help reduce the ability for China to fuel their military and help drive a healthier trade system globally for all to share in. At the end of the day the USA is the breadbasket for the world when it comes to spending money. All Nations want to sell to us and take a piece of the pie. A fair and balanced system will help keep the USA strong while sharing that pie fairly.

A few of my concerns as an American and a father / husband;

1) If there are two superpowers on the world stage, at some point there will be a fight. To prevent this, a single super power system is better for world peace. I know that there will always be wars, most political in nature, but preventing global war is what I would like to see. I do not want to see my two boys marched off to a foreign land to see the destruction of war firsthand. I do not want this for any American, father or mother. China cannot become a true military rival to the USA... we are dangerously close to that happening now.

2) We do not ever want to see what life is like with the US Dollar not being the world reserve currency. Life will suck for all Americans if that ever happens, far more than most people realize.


I believe that this tariff wars will be sorted out within 90 days. It is not sustainable. But China has abused the US in the trade practice, unchecked for decades.... and we have built the beast who wants to take us down as a result. It is simply time to unwind what bad US politicians have done for decades and help get the world back to a healthy balance trade wise.

I understand that the solar industry and the electronics industry that I work in... as well as many others hang in the balance of this trade war. Even though it hurts, I wouldn't have it any other way. This is the Band-Aid that needs to be ripped off for our nation to get to a better place, before we find ourselves in a much worse position such as becoming a secondary superpower with a devalued US dollar. That would be far worst, and no American would want that.

As always Will, THANK YOU for what you do leading the charge in the DIY solar stuff! With you and a bad ass group of DIY Solar YouTubers, people such as myself can jump on the wagon and build our systems through y'all's insight and knowledge! Keep leading the charge Will!

Best regards,

John Gyver
Richmond Texas

 

[Chispas]

If you don't clean your room I will take your Gameboy. Threat.
If you don't clean your room, I will tell everyone that you slept with the neighbor's dog. Blackmail.

You're dealing with sovereign countries, not little kids.

 

[Jmhai3]

You're dealing with sovereign countries, not little kids.

If you don't lower the tariffs, we will raise ours. Threat.
If you don't lower your tariffs will tell the whole world you are yada, yada, yada. Blackmail.

Seems pretty similar to me.

 

[Tulex]

The whole world lives in a false economy, especially first world countries. It's built on "advancements" over the last 80 or so years that have done nothing to improve our lives and therefore isn't necessary, except maybe in the medical field. We just have more toys and tasks have become easier. Countries now play keeping up with the Joneses in technology. We have socially declined because of these "advancements".

People 150 years ago were happy as could be going to the general store in town. Now we go to Walmart and shop for crap, and they have rows and rows of it. We are a gluttonous society.

The Greatest Generation is rolling over in their graves over what we've done with what they provided. Countries for centuries did just fine on their own. What we are fighting to catch up on isn't necessary. We as a country have all we need to be self sufficient and more than we need to trade for what we want beyond that. This country needs to take a step back and think about what is important as a country, focus on becoming internally strong with a strong military to protect it. If we focused on technology to support that, we would be fine.

 

[Skypower]

At the minimum this would be 2022 when Biden created the Chips act and put up 280 billion to fund it. This was a clear signal to China that the US considered a War over Taiwan to be imminent.

I’m wondering how much of that 280 billion went to actual chip infrastructure or excessive planning, studies and friends of Biden? DOGE! Whistle, whistle, here boy!

 

[Brett V]

This is the crux of the problem...

Will you pay Americans 10 dollars an hour to create some of the biggest environmental nightmares at a loss?
I don't think you get it...
You are not informed, you don't understand the problem.

Really? And you have a deep understanding of everything?

As an American you think you can have and do anything.
Its been told to you since you were a child and you think its true.
America is exceptional and can do anything and your number #1 at when ever you set your mind too.
We you can't.

Watch us.

Wanting wishing hoping even throwing mountains of money at a problem will not solve every problem..

Only the left believes this.

You might need to swallow that pride and find countries that are friendly to supply the things you need rather that try and re invent the wheel and make them at a loss..

Never.

That's not going not be easy while you tariff and piss off the rest of the world too...

Do you think most Americans give a rats ass?

Even if you secure these resources are you any good at using them?
Again look at history and the semi conductor industry.
The point contact transistor was first made and sold commercially in the USA ( some people think it was invented at Bell labs and not in England ).
They sucked!
Sony made the first good reliable transistor for commercial use.
But you think you did with Texas instruments....
That's what your history books tell you

The first bipolar junction transistors were invented by Bell Labs in 1948. The first high-frequency transistor was the surface-barrier germanium transistor developed by Philco in 1953. The first production-model pocket transistor radio was the Regency TR-1, released in October 1954 as a joint venture between the Regency Division of Industrial Development Engineering and Texas Instruments of Dallas, Texas, the TR-1 was manufactured in Indianapolis, Indiana.

You can say the Japanese copied and learned from the USA.
Yes that is true you did not take them seriously.
Then they figured out what you were doing wrong and they solved the transistor problem.
It was cheaper to use the Sony transistor than the TI transistor and history is full of examples like this.

Japanese companies, most notably Toshiba, made cheap consumer products using American semiconductor designs.

What was the difference between what Japan did and Americans could not?
Well you would have to research that yourself because I don't have all day to talk about how you refine Germanium crystals.
What is important is it was cheaper to buy them from outside suppliers and it actually made sense from an economic perspective to stick with that suply chain as it developed.

Do you understand what I am trying to tell you?
A lot of what you are trying to do alone by yourself make no sense....

I wouldn't expect you to understand the pride we have in American exceptionalism. You seem both envious and resentful of America and think we care.

 

[jeeptj12]

China is reliant on selling stuff to countries with money that are willing to spend it. The last numbers I saw show the US buys about 15% of China's overall output. China will be fine without the US.

That's around a 3% hit to GDP. That can cause some damage.

 

[SparkyJJO]

I’m wondering how much of that 280 billion went to actual chip infrastructure or excessive planning, studies and friends of Biden? DOGE! Whistle, whistle, here boy!

If it is anything like the rural broadband rollout, or the nationwide EV charger rollout, or... well, there ya go.

This whole rare earths thing is going to be interesting. Sticky situation possibly. Have to see how it plays out. But it is a prime example to the entire world that if you don't do what China likes, they'll try to strangle you economically because they basically took over the entire industry and have a monopoly on the stuff right now. Literally drove others out of business. This should be a huge wake-up call to everyone to NOT be so reliant on others where it can be avoided.

 

[Chispas]

But it is a prime example to the entire world that if you don't do what China likes, they'll try to strangle you economically because they basically took over the entire industry and have a monopoly on the stuff right now. Literally drove others out of business. This should be a huge wake-up call to everyone to NOT be so reliant on others where it can be avoided.

I think that's an exaggeration, but this is what American hegemony has done for the last 75 years. I need to say this again, but your CEOs & politicians from both sides served this up on a plate for China in search of even more profits.

 

[Mattb4]

...This should be a huge wake-up call to everyone to NOT be so reliant on others where it can be avoided.

Yeah but...
Makes me think of Harvard screaming that the President can not tell a Private college what to do or teach and by the way if you stop sending us Taxpayers dollars we will sue.

China has every right to act in their own interests and the US has every right to stop buying stuff from them. Should be an interesting year.

 

[Dagoth Ur Does Solar]

If it is anything like the rural broadband rollout, or the nationwide EV charger rollout, or... well, there ya go.

This whole rare earths thing is going to be interesting. Sticky situation possibly. Have to see how it plays out. But it is a prime example to the entire world that if you don't do what China likes, they'll try to strangle you economically because they basically took over the entire industry and have a monopoly on the stuff right now. Literally drove others out of business. This should be a huge wake-up call to everyone to NOT be so reliant on others where it can be avoided.

Yeah, that's what I keep thinking about it.

Should really be a wake up call to western-aligned nations.

It's one thing to rely on core parts of your supply chain with allies... but to those of us relying on China, they're showing they can flip the switch and cut you off from core resources and products. I think leadership in western nations in general have just wanted to kick the can down the road on this. No democratically elected official wants to take action that will be painful to the constituents because their political survival depends on it. Just make it the next guy's problem.

 

[cs1234]

It's one thing to rely on core parts of your supply chain with allies... but to those of us relying on China, they're showing they can flip the switch and cut you off from core resources and products.

If you kick a fire ant mound, fire ants come out.

 

[fuzzmunky415]

Is there any particular reason gasification isn't being exploited for REE and other recyclables (urban garbage/landfill issues). My understanding of the tech is that it purifies while condensing these elements in the effluent.

 

[Brett V]

I need to say this again, but your CEOs & politicians from both sides served this up on a plate for China in search of even more profits.

You are mostly correct. And now (finally) there's a political climate in America to stop being stupid and put national security to the top of the list. The scamdemic was a wake up call to most Americans that we put our supply of semiconductors, medications, renewable energy, and manufacturing under the control of an adversary who has the will and incentive to turn off the tap whenever it suits them. We have collectively been stupid for several decades. We can fix stupid but it's gonna hurt.