D
Deleted member 23531
Guest
Can you think of any situation in history where that has happened for a technology product over 10 years? (this is not a rhetorical question, I actually am asking). I think if it is not cheap it will prolong the switch from natural gas, or whatever the status quo is, to battery + renewables. But I think market forces would keep prices down and just demand would be tamped down if it is not significantly cheaper.That said, I would not be surprised there will be a shortage of raw materials due to increasing demand and the price might even go up.
As far as I have followed raw material markets, which is to say casually in the news and not seriously like an investor would, shortages are really transitory - a couple years to open up a new mine or whatever if it's expected to be profitable. I think the year over year capacity improvements per dollar would offset any increase in demand or shortage in supply (meaning the cells in your garage aren't appreciating in value!) but that is obviously just a hunch. What do you guys think?
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