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EV' sales going into 2023...and beyond

OffGridForGood

Catch, make or grow everything you can.
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From the Economist "Ten business trendes for 2023"
2023 electric vehicle(sales) will accelerate less sharply. Global sales, which doubled in 2021, will increase by 25% to 10.8m units, or around 20% of the total (global) new-car market. China will account for more than half of these as it backtracks on plans to scrap tax breaks for fear of stifling demand. China will also impose the world’s strictest emission standards for fossil-fuel vehicles. Germany’s sales of electrics will slip as it cuts subsidies. But electrics offer the best hope for carmakers in the long run, so they will launch more of them.
-Interesting reading, for a mature industry like autos, this change in only a few years is huge. If a resession hits in the next year or two, could be a good opportunity to get an EV...
 
2023 electric vehicle(sales) will accelerate less sharply.
The slowing growth does not surprise me.

The rapid progress of the EV industry has a lot of people predicting that the EV prices will soon drop to below an equivalent ICE car and ICE will become a relic. However, I don't think that is going to happen for several years because of the scarcity of batteries. Right now, just about every EV manufacturer in the world would be building more EVs if they had the batteries to do it. This would probably even be true if the government stopped subsidizing EVs with rebates and tax incentives.

I am excited about a future of all EV cars, but despite mandates like California's ban on ICE after 2035, there are a lot of fundamental barriers that must be smashed before it can happen.

A few of the big ones are:
* Material availability for building the batteries.
* Manufacturing costs of building the batteries
* Grid infrastructure for delivering power for recharging the cars.
* If you want to deliver 'green' energy to the cars, it is an even larger problem because of the lack of grid-scale energy storage for intermittent renewables. (Nuclear is probably the only technology we know how to do at a scale that would produce the non-carbon energy needed.....but our irrational level of fear of anything nuclear is not allowing that to happen)

As if the challenges are not large enough, this all has to be done in a way that does not require continuing government rebates and tax incentives or the industry will not be viable.
 
A lot of what you say is quite true, and I suspect the 'slowing rate' of EV growth has much to do with the battery supply bottle-neck.
In my country if I were able to get an F150 today, there would be no government subsidy for me, they cut off the money on any EV over $60,000 base price (in CAD). That said I will purchase one soon, for several reasons:
Operating costs are lower than ICE
I believe the longevity of the Lightning will be far longer than my current (RAM 2500) due to the aluminum panels and the simple drivetrain
I can 'make' some of my own fuel for a Lightning and the rest is super cheap off peak or even paying charging station prices.
It would add a large battery to my off grid solar for back-up, at 'low cost' compared with stationary batteries,
It power available will be super for camping and trips to the cabin.
I believe it is the right thing to do long term.

As to the green-ness of the current grid, my Province shut down the last coal fired power plants years ago, and is:
34% Nuclear, 28% Nat Gas, 23% water powered, 13% Wind, 1% solar and 1% biofuels - with greater solar and biofuels coming on line - and is an energy exporter, since we have too much power anyway. I feel pretty comfortable with my charging options/impacts of those options. In any event I would be more inclined to use a 95% efficient electric motor than a 28% efficient ICE even if my electrical grid was less 'Green'; stationary power plants -even ones running on hydro-carbon fuels are still far more efficient than ICE engines.

I see in the news several Lithium Mines set to start up in Canada, and some battery factories in the USA, perhaps the EV Batteries are not that far away (in time or distance) as we think.
 
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