seneysolar
Solar Wizard
From dealing with insurance claims, i recommend folks down there take a bunch of current pictures of everything you have. Really handy for getting it covered after a loss.
Florida Neighbors Prepare for Hurricane - How are you getting ready?
- Thread starter MattMan119
- Start date
Recovering EE
Solar Addict
Absolutely. Great idea!
Before and after. Just walk around inside and outside the house shooting video. Don't forget closets, attic and basement.
Subdood
Photon Wrangler
EFS models nailed the landfall of Helene a week beforehand. Latest EFS model has it hitting just north of Tampa. A cat 3 to 5 coming into the bay area from the SW is a nightmare scenario. And it will be at night..
I was telling someone that if it's a cat 4 storm, it'd be like a 50 or so mine wide EF2 or EF3 tornado, wind wise. And last much longer.
I was telling someone that if it's a cat 4 storm, it'd be like a 50 or so mine wide EF2 or EF3 tornado, wind wise. And last much longer.
Mattb4
Solar security
Now 180MPH sustained winds. Any bets on 200?
wpns
Solar Joules are catch and release
Don't even think it!
I mean, I'm so far inland on the East cost that I have nothing to worry about. #WhistlingPastTheGraveyard
Suppose I ought to check out the SARNET gear just in case...
Yea seems like a good chance of it, the sun is going down though
Check the below at graphic at right at 5pm 10-07-2024, 180MPH
the at 2am 185MPH
site: https://zoom.earth/storms/milton-2024/#map=wind-gusts/model=icon
the at 2am 185MPH
site: https://zoom.earth/storms/milton-2024/#map=wind-gusts/model=icon
42OhmsPA
What's in a title?
BarracudaBob
Harvesting free photons from clean fusion
They expect it to slow down due to shear forces to be only a CAT3. The problem is if you wait and find they are wrong it may be extremely difficult to evacuate. I95 on east coast was shut down in 3 different locations. One was a fatality. People are starting to freak out. We aren't even threatened that much over here. If it goes into Tampa Bay it will be a multi billion dollar storm.
I am a firm believer in people making their own choices and personal responsibility. As we all know you can't rely on the science of predicting weather. These are some serious choices people are making. I made that choice with Dorian back in 2019 at 185 MPH when it made a magical predicted turn north just 50 miles off shore. Otherwise it would have came into West Palm Beach wipe the city clear off the map. I remember standing there watching the TV thinking to myself that I have made a horrible decision. We were lucky but I will remember that sick feeling in my stomach. I will never underestimate a storm again. I got my one free pass.
I am a firm believer in people making their own choices and personal responsibility. As we all know you can't rely on the science of predicting weather. These are some serious choices people are making. I made that choice with Dorian back in 2019 at 185 MPH when it made a magical predicted turn north just 50 miles off shore. Otherwise it would have came into West Palm Beach wipe the city clear off the map. I remember standing there watching the TV thinking to myself that I have made a horrible decision. We were lucky but I will remember that sick feeling in my stomach. I will never underestimate a storm again. I got my one free pass.
BarracudaBob
Harvesting free photons from clean fusion
Nice link. I haven't tried that one yet.
TheRealGomez
New Member
Midnight in Tampa for th projected hit. What are the tides then??
edit: never mind. I looked it up (doh!). high tide at 19:55 (ouch) on the 10th. but not the super high tide so, maybe hope?
edit: never mind. I looked it up (doh!). high tide at 19:55 (ouch) on the 10th. but not the super high tide so, maybe hope?
marionw
Solar Wizard
Folks might be interested in two websites that collect data from personal weather stations folks have installed at their homes or businesses and voluntarily provide the data to the web sites.
ambientweather.net
Ambient Weather Network
Your Personal Weather Data Dashboard. Stream live data from your weather station to the internet.
WunderMap® | Interactive Weather Map and Radar | Weather Underground
Weather Underground’s WunderMap provides interactive weather and radar Maps for weather conditions for locations worldwide.
www.wunderground.com
MattMan119
Solar Geek
Ouch … this is going to suck….
yep I remember that one, it was basically the same size as milton is right now. It's the second strongest one ever to come from the atlantic (that reached land)
From personal experience, I would say the Cat. 5 storms are less damaging, ironically, than the Cat. 3 storms. Why? They seem to wring out their water load before reaching land, and are a big blow instead of a big soak. It's the water that does the most damage, provided buildings are not too weak (as they are in some third-world places). So, in my opinion, the ideal would be Cat. 5 until shortly before landfall, dropping to Cat. 3 or so briefly, with insufficient time remaining to gather the moisture.
DISCLAIMER: I am not a weatherman, do not make predictions, and share nothing more than my personal opinion based on several years of weathering tropical storms in a storm-prone area.
They don't usually sustain such winds for very long before undergoing an eyewall replacement that slows them down--at least temporarily till they regroup. I don't remember ever seeing a 200MPH sustained-wind storm before--175 is about as high as I recollect, but my memory may be influenced by the fact I've more often seen the data in terms of knots and/or KPH. This one is definitely a record breaker. The strength of the storm is more accurately measured, in my opinion, by the barometric pressure of its eye. What is that reading now? Below 900?
I like this site, a bit simpler, perhaps, but fairly informative. There are links to satellite images, etc. just below the graphic of the storm track.
Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) for long-range forecasts of hurricane, typhoon and cyclone worldwide
We offer long-range forecasts of hurricane, typhoon and tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic, NW Pacific, SW Pacific and Indian Ocean basins.
www.tropicalstormrisk.com
It tracks all current tropical storms, so you'll have to click on "Milton" first--which presently displays the following track:
(just going by when the eye is right at land)
NAM predicts 6AM THURSDAY hahahahaa wtf is that
HRRR 3PM wednesday
ECMFW 2AM THUR
GFS 12midnight
ICON 2AM
most of the news places are using GFS
it has satellite and radar for real currently happening info
wind, temperature, rain, heat, solar intensity, waves, particulates, gasses in the air, etc. They just 3d model all of the government data
NAM predicts 6AM THURSDAY hahahahaa wtf is that
HRRR 3PM wednesday
ECMFW 2AM THUR
GFS 12midnight
ICON 2AM
most of the news places are using GFS
just use windy.com and switch models and drag the bar to whichever day you want
it has satellite and radar for real currently happening info
wind, temperature, rain, heat, solar intensity, waves, particulates, gasses in the air, etc. They just 3d model all of the government data
Most of that is readable, or estimable, from space. For barometric pressure, it's my understanding they need to fly into the eye to get that reading, which is why we don't see live feeds for it. They may be able to estimate, but from satellite the measurement is less precise. The millibars reading is often the most telling regarding the storm's strength--more interesting even than the wind speed, as the millibars give an indication of whether the storm may be strengthening, i.e. the wind speeds may not have reached their full potential yet, particularly in the outer bands.
Many web sources omit the barometric pressure reading for tropical storms (as does the tropicalstormrisk.com that I like). Wikipedia is usually updated by eagle-eyed storm trackers with this information. Currently, the Wiki page lists it as: "Lowest pressure: 897 mbar (hPa); 26.49 inHg." That's not "record-setting" powerful, but anything under 900 mbar is quite powerful.
HighDesertDrifter
Teaching is a rare skill, Thanks to those who do!
When you are a Xspurt, you know everything right?It's almost like they have no idea how weather works, deny the existence of weather modification programs, yet are absolutely certain that any negative weather is directly the result of anthropogenic climate change.
huh? I'm just saying the site is way easier to visualize stuff with 100x the data that the other sites provide because it takes from all the sources and puts them in 3d animated visualization
it has pressure too
it's currently the 4th strongest hurricane ever recorded at the 897 as you said, so pretty good one
HighDesertDrifter
Teaching is a rare skill, Thanks to those who do!
Insurance is outpricing many who live in Florida. You better bring plenty of$$$ to afford the cost of proper insurance in these areas!
BarracudaBob
Harvesting free photons from clean fusion
It has reached a point that a large percentage of people dropped their insurance and are self insuring. A really bad storm and the insurance company will declare bankruptcy or you have to fight for years to get a fair amount. People have been waiting over a year to get their houses repaired. They take it on their own and hire repair services and the insurance company sues then for it.
"Dozens of homeowners have been sued by People’s Trust for repairing their homes with their own contractors. The insurance company invoked their right to repair but would tell the homeowner that they could not get to their repairs for 8-12 months."
I spent $40K to bring my home up to latest codes and new roof. Few years later they raised just the wind portion of my insurance $6,500. This doesn't include fire, theft, or flood - Just Wind.
Really? It seems hurricanes aren't as strong as typhoons, pressure-wise. I've seen a number of typhoons stronger than this (e.g. in the 880's). I wonder what the difference is...less space in the Atlantic? One would think the Atlantic, having shallower and less water overall, could generate stronger storms with the sea surface temperatures being relatively higher. Maybe the jet stream and/or geography of the surrounding terrain hinders Atlantic storms?
From what I could ascertain online, Hurricane Wilma, in 2005, had the lowest recorded pressure for an Atlantic storm, at 882 mbar.
"On the morning of October 19, 2005, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) aircraft measured a pressure of 882 millibars in the center of Hurricane Wilma—the lowest pressure ever measured in an Atlantic hurricane." [LINK]
Compare that with a recorded pressure of 870 millibars for Typhoon Tip.
"A US Air Weather Service reconnaissance aircraft recorded an onboard measurement of 700 hPa at a height of only 1900 m and a dropsonde measurement of 870 hPa." [LINK]
By the way, whomever stated that Hurricane Milton was the 4th strongest was close. According to this Wikipedia page, it is the 5th strongest Atlantic hurricane, and only 6 (six) Atlantic hurricanes have dropped below the 900 mbar mark. Note that Hurricane Patricia had a pressure of 872 mbar, but formed in the Pacific. Contrast this with typhoons, whose <900 mbar pressure storms number in the double digits.
Typhoon Haiyan is considered one of the strongest tropical storms in history, if not the strongest.
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