"Ford secures battery supplies for 600,000 EVs a year from 2023"

[cs1234]

This an example of the extreme polarization I see. In the area where I live, more than half the population takes one or more ~200 mile treks over a mountain pass during the winter. When there's an accident or spun-out vehicle the highway can be stopped for hours with hundreds of cars backed up. All those people in EVs will have to choose between freezing or running out their battery, and if there are enough disabled EVs it wouldn't surprise me if it took days to clear the road.

It's an out of sight out of mind sort of a thing. We are used to what we deal with regularly. I wouldn't ever think about trying to pass over a 200 mile mountain pass in the winter, because I don't want to die like that.

Using special exceptions like that when we are dealing with overall generalizations for EV suitability is a regular problem in discussions. Exceptions should be handled with other exceptions, but not be allowed to distract from the overall point.

Probably 50-80% of the American population

Spoiler: American exceptionalism

(you might not even be American, but we Americans only think of everything as an American issue)

lives, in or around a major metro and doesn't have to pass over 200 mile snow filled death traps routinely. The majority of commuting Americans could easily use an EV instead of an ICE and have few problems once some proper charging infrastructure is in place for people without houses/garages. People are often fools though, they even manage to run out of gas with gas stations everywhere. Ever run into somebody with poor man itis? They always put $10 or $20 in their tank, using cash, inside the gas station, because that's what they had to do when they were broke? Now they are rolling in dough but still do that dumb crap?

edit.. @tigerwillow1 I don't mean to say you are being obnoxious, or disingenuous .. Your example is a valid one, but it's clearly a special use case. rewording the insulting language so as not to insult..

Take the cold trip example of yours.. we are on a solar panel forum, let's think creatively, even if the solutions might seem silly or inconvenient. EV's could be replaced with hybrids in those areas of extreme conditions. Or, those people could bring electric blankets.. a 70kwh battery pack can run a small 20-30 watt electric blanket for some time. Would it be uncomfortable? Sure. But a regular car can run out of gas sitting in the cold as well. Alternatively, maybe a small back of car mounted propane or gas generator could be brought as a safety device during dangerous trips through snow covered mountain passes.

 

[Miles B]

Also, in the next 5-10 years, battery energy density will increase to the point where those use cases are covered too. By the time we next switch vehicles, there will be a suitable EV for virtually everyone.

 

[Danke]

For me a plug-in hybrid would the best configuration. I had one on my short list before buying a car last year, except I don't want an NMC battery in my attached garage.

I’d like a plug-in hybrid that has a large battery. And made with stainless steal, at least the lower portion. Rust is a killer where I live, and heating a car in winter kills the range of an EV.

 

[cs1234]

I’d like a plug-in hybrid that has a large battery. And made with stainless steal, at least the lower portion. Rust is a killer where I live, and heating a car in winter kills the range of an EV.

Just get an electric blanket already!

 

[Danke]

Also, in the next 5-10 years, battery energy density will increase to the point where those use cases are covered too. By the time we next switch vehicles, there will be a suitable EV for virtually everyone.

And everyone will have flying EV cars by then too!

 

[time2roll]

I’d like a plug-in hybrid that has a large battery. And made with stainless steal, at least the lower portion. Rust is a killer where I live, and heating a car in winter kills the range of an EV.

If the hybrid could get rid of the transmission I might be interested for a heavy vehicle. Electric around town and connect the ICE only at highway speeds.

 

[cs1234]

If the hybrid could get rid of the transmission I might be interested for a heavy vehicle. Electric around town and connect the ICE only at highway speeds.

A serial hybrid, those are the ones that the engine is basically a generator / range extender. As long as the electric motors are powerful enough to actually power the car, like say, a tesla, there is no reason to mechanically couple the engine to the drivetrain.

 

[Ampster]

So what you're saying is EV sales in the USA will grow from under 0.7 million a year to ~13 million a year in a little over 5 years. I'm having a hard time believing that sort of growth rate.

It is just one projection. Lots of things could make it happen faster or slower. The chip shortage is making new car sales stagnate. High gas prices might make it get to 13 million if supply chain gets better. How are EV sales down under?

 

[Ampster]

All those people in EVs will have to choose between freezing or running out their battery, and if there are enough disabled EVs it wouldn't surprise me if it took days to clear the road.

All those people? I don't see that being a problem in Norway or California. If I lived in Denver with an EV with that weather forecast I would either check available charging stations or not take that trip that weekend.

 

[Miles B]

It is just one projection. Lots of things could make it happen faster or slower. The chip shortage is making new car sales stagnate. High gas prices might make it get to 13 million if supply chain gets better. How are EV sales down under?

Every model of EV available here is on back order.

 

[Miles B]

All those people? I don't see that being a problem in Norway or California. If I lived in Denver with an EV with that weather forecast I would either check available charging stations or not take that trip that weekend.

This one always makes me laugh.. "EVs just won't work in the cold weather!"

Norway. 80+% of car sales in the middle of winter are EV.

"Oh."

 

[Danke]

This one always makes me laugh.. "EVs just won't work in the cold weather!"

Norway. 80+% of car sales in the middle of winter are EV.

"Oh."

Real world experience. My brother traded in his EV after the winter because of the reduced range. He is in Minnesota.

Most Norwegians live in coastal areas that don’t see the cold like we do in the Midwest. Oslo rarely gets below 32F in winter.

 

[OzSolar]

Sorry I just got here....

Last time I saw the stats it was something around 95% of people drive less than 30 miles per day 95% of time.

Heating does not kill the range of an EV. Nearly all of them have heated seats and steering wheels and you can easily get your car warmed up via an phone app while it is still plugged in. And if you must turn the air heater on it's 1kW which really doesn't hurt 95% of the people 95% of the time.

Every anti ev argument I've seen seems oddly out of place on this forum. It's like saying solar will never work because I can't run everything single thing in my house at 100% at the same time for 12 hours straight.

 

[time2roll]

A serial hybrid, those are the ones that the engine is basically a generator / range extender. As long as the electric motors are powerful enough to actually power the car, like say, a tesla, there is no reason to mechanically couple the engine to the drivetrain.

GM engineers discovered 10% increase in economy with the Volt engine linked to the wheels.

Depending on the size and speed controls needed there probably are situations where using generators and motors is better.

 

[cs1234]

Real world experience. My brother traded in his EV after the winter because of the reduced range. He is in Minnesota.

Most Norwegians live in coastal areas that don’t see the cold like we do in the Midwest. Oslo rarely gets below 32F in winter.

Serial hybrids or attachable range extenders are probably the way to go for extremely cold climates. Even a relatively low power range extender that doesn't supply enough power for high speeds would be sufficient, as you shouldn't be going high speeds in those conditions anyway.

 

[wattmatters]

How are EV sales down under?

Way, way slower than in the US.

In the first half of 2022, 537,858 new cars were sold here. 9,680 of those were EVs (just 1.8% of sales).

At the present time, EVs represent 0.2% of all registered vehicles. About 40,000 out of 20 million.

I can't even buy an EV in the area I live. None of the local dealers and service departments have any training. It will takes years. I mean I can buy a Tesla remotely but it's 500+ km to the nearest service centre if for some reason they need to attend to something, which given Tesla's quality standards is a reasonable bet.

I'd be far more likely to buy an EV from a well established brand here with reasonable customer after care service reputation, names like Kia, Hyundai and a few others. In Australia Tesla is terrible in this respect, as are Mercedes, Ford and any in the Volkswagen group (note I own both a VW and a Merc). Toyota has lost the plot here, they won't even sell EVs. The emerging Chinese brands are far too new to risk but they will eventually cut everyone's grass like the Koreans did to the Japanese.

 

[wattmatters]

The chip shortage is making new car sales stagnate.

You know what, I don't think there is so much a chip shortage as idiotic excess of automative bean counter power.

Car makers played cutsey with the chip makers and screwed them down on price so much that when push came to shove the chip makers just decided to keep supplying far more profitable market segments first. Frankly it's a problem of the car manufacturers own making. They are classic examples of blame shifters.

 

[wattmatters]

It is just one projection. Lots of things could make it happen faster or slower.

That's true.

This thread was about Ford securing batteries for 600,000 EVs from 2023. Ford sells ~1.7 million vehicles a year in the US.
So presumably that means they will still be selling well over 1 million ICEVs a year for quite some time.

 

[OzSolar]

Using special exceptions like that when we are dealing with overall generalizations for EV suitability is a regular problem in discussions. Exceptions should be handled with other exceptions, but not be allowed to distract from the overall point.

Well said.

99% of the time your current internal combustion powered passenger car does everything you need it to do, right? But what about that time you need to get a new piece of furniture or appliance delivered? Do you call your car a complete failure? No, it doesn't even cross your mind, you get it delivered or ask a favor from a buddy with truck.

edit to fix a typo

 

[cs1234]

GM engineers discovered 10% increase in economy with the Volt engine linked to the wheels.

The volt has always been an interesting turkey. I like them, but the Prius was the much more commonly available vehicle at the time I got mine. I still wouldn't mind having one if I picked it up cheap enough.

Volt info

They turned it into a complicated rigamarole instead of the simpler series hybrid they originally proposed, hinted at, said once.. who knows. That creates more mechanical complexity and opportunity for failure.

I shouldn't have used the expression "no reason" to mechanically couple an ICE to the drive train, you got me on a carelessly used "absolute" statement, congrats.

Depending on the size of your traction batteries and their current charge, the size of your electric motors, etc.. you could stand to benefit from coupling an ICE to it at certain speeds or battery charge levels, certain terrains or work loads. This does cause you to have to use fuel though, which is supposed to be avoided except when absolutely necessary. Remember, we are trying to conserve gasoline, not electricity. Why would I want my hybrid to use gasoline just because it has it available to avoid using electricity from the battery? It's a plug in hybrid, I would rather just use the electricity and plug it back in sooner.

 

[tigerwillow1]

My point was to correct "some" to "most". The studies are done, it's clear data.

This is not a correction. "Some" is not incorrect if "most" turns out to be true. I get it, you're dug in and think you're right. I'm reminded of our recent pandemic where the studies were done and the data was clear, even announced by the president. Then the clear data changed a bunch of times. The pandemic was political. EVs are political. Please excuse those who think the clear data might not be correct.

 

[cs1234]

This is not a correction. "Some" is not incorrect if "most" turns out to be true. I get it, you're dug in and think you're right. I'm reminded of our recent pandemic where the studies were done and the data was clear, even announced by the president. Then the clear data changed a bunch of times. The pandemic was political. EVs are political. Please excuse those who think the clear data might not be correct.

Regardless of any politics, EV's / serial hybrids (real ones) can use a larger variety of energy sources and will ultimately prove more versatile navigating our future than a vehicle that is limited to only one type of fuel. An EV can be powered by a solar setup like @Will Prowse has going on. Unless you are making biodiesel at home, you aren't powering an ICE from anything you are generating at home.

 

[Miles B]

Oslo rarely gets below 32F in winter.

lol

Oslo December 2021 Historical Weather Data (Norway) - Weather Spark

weatherspark.com

Looks fairly similar to Minneapolis. What do 84% of Norwegians know that your brother doesn't?

Minneapolis December 2021 Historical Weather Data (Minnesota, United States) - Weather Spark

weatherspark.com

 

[Miles B]

This is not a correction. "Some" is not incorrect if "most" turns out to be true. I get it, you're dug in and think you're right. I'm reminded of our recent pandemic where the studies were done and the data was clear, even announced by the president. Then the clear data changed a bunch of times. The pandemic was political. EVs are political. Please excuse those who think the clear data might not be correct.

At least you're honest that you prefer to ignore data. That's something I guess.

 

[eXodus]

Norway buys ~ 150,000 cars per year (just 1% of the cars bought each year in the USA). Scale matters.
Norway charges a vehicle tailpipe emissions tax.
Norway does not charge any import tax on EVs, which are applied to ICEVs.
Norway does not charge 25% VAT on EVs, which is applied to ICEV.
Norway does not charge road taxes for EVs, which are applied to ICEV.
Norway does not charge road tolls for EV, which are applied to ICEV.
Norway reduces company car tax by 50% for EVs.
Norway's governments are required to purchase only zero (tailpipe) emissions vehicles.
Norway provides more favourable parking arrangements and lane access arrangements to EVs.
Norway invested heavily in EV charging infrastructure.

True,

USA has domestic EV manufacturing "Buy American" Tesla, Ford, GM,
USA already has good developed charging network and the Government is investing Billions in more charging
USA has cheap electric compared with Europe
USA people drive a lot of miles commuting - ideal use-case for EVs. While Europeans often have alternatives. (Bus, Train, Subway etc)
USA you got preferred Parking and Lanes for EVs (Florida and California)
USA many states do not charge road taxes for EVs either. (Gas tax pays for the roads)
USA has a dying Gas-Station Network

In parts of the country - I get range anxiety with my Gas guzzler, since every 5 Gas station in drive into is out of business
When this trend accelerates - EV will be the only choice for some people.

Like I said I used to work in Energy Economics, we did this kind of predictions. Not always right
I've spoken with a few old contacts at OEM car manufacturers, and they have their Books with Electric car orders filled till eternity.
If they would have the capacity today they could sell millions of EVs right now.
It's not a demand issue - its a supply issue.

Yes, however, are the supply chains going to keep up with that sort of growth over the next 5 years?
Exponential trends are way easier to maintain in the early stages. It gets significantly more challenging each year. The other charts you show are more like a typical sigmoid function, which looks exponential in the early stages for a while but flatten out. Why they flatten is the issue at hand.

Supply chains are a mess, no idea if it will make the transition that fast. Not my specialty.

This will be a Double S-Curve, It will be exponentially till like 80% (if not hampered by supply) and then flatten out and the last 20% will take forever. Remember 100 years after the introduction of the car there are still Horses used for transportation, we never achieved 100% transition

There are niche applications where EVs are just not good.