diy solar

diy solar

Future of DIY LiFePO4 looks bleak…

Let's make sure we pad every corner so no one gets hurt. McDs coffee cup with the label "contents may be hot"...need I say more.

While this is wildly off topic for this thread, I’m just going to point out that the whole McDonalds coffee case is wildly misunderstood. It’s often portrayed as a frivolous, oversized lawsuit, but the reality couldn’t be furhter from the truth. Prior to the incident in question, McDonalds had been repeatedly warned that they were serving coffee way too hot (on the order of 205F) which is exceedingly dangerous, especially in flimsy portable containers. There had been multiple complaints, multiple injuries, and nothing had been done about it.

The woman in question, while parked in the parking lot, had the cup break on her and spilled it on her crotch, causing second to third degree burns. It fused her genetalia with scar tissue. Think about that. Anyhow, afterwards, all she sought form McDonalds was the money to cover her medical bills that resulted. Not only did they rebuff this, they mocked her and also portrayed it as an isolated incident (which was later shown to not be the case). The Jury saw through this, and eventually ordered McDonalds to pay, I think, 1 days’s worth of coffee revenue.

After appeals and so forth, this was eventually reduced down to low six figures. McDonalds has since reduced their temperature to those sugested by the coffee industry to maximize flavour.
 
The aftermarket cells we have bee purchasing from Chinese resellers are a huge crapshoot, and with shipping costs, it’s getting harder and harder to purchase cells that have high likelihood to not be garbage for much under delivered cost of $0.18/Wh raw or $0.20/Wh usable capacity @ 90% DOD.

Depends. For that price I get 100% cells with EVE test reports. Some places have much better track records than others.
A little more than the crap shoot vendors at $140/cell plus slow shipping, but you actually get cells that all measure above 310 amp hours and aren't bloated or used.

Signature Solar’s GYLL battery is$1500 for 5.1kWh of usable capacity, or $0.29/Wh (ignoring shipping costs). Shipping to California is $180 bringing total delivered cost up to $0.33/Wh usable delivered.

And the Powerporter battery the was just disclosed is $1700 for 9.0Wh or $0.19/Wh raw or $0.21/Wh usable @ 90% DOD: https://diysolarforum.com/threads/the-new-lithium-battery-which-use-catl-battery-cell.32066/

Shipping on that battery should cost about as much as shipping raw cells from China, but eventually Powerporter or Signaturesolar or another competitor will have US stock and will sell Off-The-Shelf (OTS) LiFePO4 batteries through Amazon with free shipping as we are starting to see with LiFePO4 cell vendors today.

So let’s assume a worst-case shipping cost of $180 like Signature Solar, that brings raw cost up to $0.21/Wh or $0.23/Wh usable @ 90% DOD,

The point I am trying to make is that by this time next year, it’s a near-certainty we’ll be able to purchase completed OTS LiFePO4 batteries through Amazon or eBay at costs of $0.19-0.21/Wh raw or $0.21-0.23/Whusable.

That means that the savings of taking the risk in DIY will be less than 5% to a maximum of 13% and that’s not yet factoring in the cost of BMS, cables, fuses/breakers, and housing, which will add a minimum of $150 or more realistically $200 to the total BOM (meaning another $0.02 to $0.03/Wh, reducing savings to zero).

So it was fun while it lasted, and we should all take some pride in having blazed the trail of LiFePO4 storage for small-scale DIY solar systems, but it’s likely to be a fool’s errand to head down this same path before the next year has passed.

Even compared to the absolute ‘floor’ of going with lead-acid or used EV cells costing $0.16/Wh usable, an off-the-shelf LiFePO battery will likely not involve a premium of more than 30% to 44% (which is so worth it when the over 10x cycle life is factored in, it’s not even funny).

So anyway, those are my two predictions for December 2022:

1: Finished OTS LiFePO4 batteries on Amazon or through other vendors at costs of $0.23/Wh or less delivered.

2: Far less traffic on this Forum (or possibly a renaming to ‘DIY/OTS LiFePO4 Battery Banks’, either explicit or implied ;)).

I can't see the future, but so far I don't see prices going down. They are significantly more expensive than when I purchased my first cells in 2019, and certainly shipping hasn't gone down. An off the shelf battery is currently about double the price of DIY, but of course the time and effort you put into it is a factor as well. Maybe quality will increase and prices continue to drop, maybe not. Certainly the $320 for 100Ah batteries Will has been reviewing are well worth the money if you keep them above freezing. Why they can't put in a working low temperature sensor is the puzzle.
 
Depends. For that price I get 100% cells with EVE test reports. Some places have much better track records than others.
A little more than the crap shoot vendors at $140/cell plus slow shipping, but you actually get cells that all measure above 310 amp hours and aren't bloated or used.



I can't see the future, but so far I don't see prices going down. They are significantly more expensive than when I purchased my first cells in 2019, and certainly shipping hasn't gone down. An off the shelf battery is currently about double the price of DIY, but of course the time and effort you put into it is a factor as well. Maybe quality will increase and prices continue to drop, maybe not. Certainly the $320 for 100Ah batteries Will has been reviewing are well worth the money if you keep them above freezing. Why they can't put in a working low temperature sensor is the puzzle.
Found by FilterGuy: https://osmbattery.com/products/ess-rack-mount-battery-modules-3-5u-48-volt-100ah-solar-power/

5.1kWh OTS for $1100 is $0.21/kWh, a new low watermark for the US market.
 
Last edited:
5.1kWh OTS for &1100 is $0.21/kWh, a new low watermark for the US market.
Interesting page.

The $1100 does appear to be a sale price, to be fair, and just a couple things to note from their page:
- it's only 4.32kWh for that price (the 100Ah version)
- the 100Ah version uses 2P15S (not 16S) which to me is a bit weird

Has anyone ever bought anything from them? Be interesting to hear from reviews.
 
Interesting page.

The $1100 does appear to be a sale price, to be fair, and just a couple things to note from their page:
- it's only 4.32kWh for that price (the 100Ah version)
- the 100Ah version uses 2P15S (not 16S) which to me is a bit weird

Has anyone ever bought anything from them? Be interesting to hear from reviews.
Good points. Also, I assumed they were a competitor to Signatute Solar but don’t yet see any signs of US-based stock…

Apparently the Nruit/Powerporter 9kWh battery I linked to in the lead post of this thread is now being offered to US customers through ‘Amy’ for $1700 ($0.19/kWh).

No idea of shipping cost or quality but the knife continues to drop…
 
Last edited:
I would like to point out that this is a natural progression in most technologies. Most start out as DIY, then "kits", then evolve to pre-assembled devices and people loose interest in the DIY. However, DIY gives more complete control over things than "black box" devices. Also, when the DIY phase ends is when the market exploitation phase really begins.

Ham radio DIYer's layed the technology ground that cell phone companies use to fork people out of billions of dollars each year. Cell towers evolved from repeater stations ham radio folks use. At one time many repeater towers were hardwired into the telco land lines. Your mobile radio set had a keyboard on the mike and all you had to do was enter a code, then a phone number and you could call any one from anywhere as long as you were in range of a ham repeater antenna. Sound familiar with your cell phone being range of a cell tower and losing calls in dead spots while driving? All modern cell phones do is automate the process so you don't have to keep track of the codes for each repeater tower you are in range of. And they are now called cell phone towers and are corporately owned rather than privately owned. That is also how they accurately track your position to within a couple of meters using tower ID and phased array antenna's on that one tower. No triangulation needed using today's technology.

The same thing will happen with energy storage technology, and people will get forked badly when its all done.
 
Last edited:
I would like to point out that this is a natural progression in most technologies. Most start out as DIY, then "kits", then evolve to pre-assembled devices and people loose interest in the DIY. However, DIY gives more complete control over things than "black box" devices. Also, when the DIY phase ends is when the market exploitation phase really begins.

Ham radio DIYer's layed the technology ground that cell phone companies use to fork people out of billions of dollars each year. Cell towers evolved from repeater stations ham radio folks use. At one time many repeater towers were hardwired into the telco land lines. Your mobile radio set had a keyboard on the mike and all you had to do was enter a code, then a phone number and you could call any one from anywhere as long as you were in range of a ham repeater antenna. Sound familiar with your cell phone being range of a cell tower and losing calls in dead spots while driving? All modern cell phones do is automate the process so you don't have to keep track of the codes for each repeater tower you are in range of. And they are now called cell phone towers and are corporately owned rather than privately owned. That is also how they accurately track your position to within a couple of meters using tower ID and phased array antenna's on that one tower. No triangulation needed using today's technology.

The same thing will happen with energy storage technology, and people will get forked badly when its all done.
There is still a very active interest in DIY computers though :) Thank goodness!
 
Totally agree there. We need more DIY builds with prices :)

Problem is the only price that counts is the $/kwh throughput over the life of the system. I’ve got lots of initial system costs - that’s easy. When my first system fails i’ll have a meaningful system cost. Until then what’s the point?
 
I am still debating between LiFePo4 cells or repurposing some lithium ion cells to keep them out of landfills in my design. Probably will end up being a combination of both.
 
I would like to point out that this is a natural progression in most technologies. Most start out as DIY, then "kits", then evolve to pre-assembled devices and people loose interest in the DIY. However, DIY gives more complete control over things than "black box" devices. Also, when the DIY phase ends is when the market exploitation phase really begins.

Ham radio DIYer's layed the technology ground that cell phone companies use to fork people out of billions of dollars each year. Cell towers evolved from repeater stations ham radio folks use. At one time many repeater towers were hardwired into the telco land lines. Your mobile radio set had a keyboard on the mike and all you had to do was enter a code, then a phone number and you could call any one from anywhere as long as you were in range of a ham repeater antenna. Sound familiar with your cell phone being range of a cell tower and losing calls in dead spots while driving? All modern cell phones do is automate the process so you don't have to keep track of the codes for each repeater tower you are in range of. And they are now called cell phone towers and are corporately owned rather than privately owned. That is also how they accurately track your position to within a couple of meters using tower ID and phased array antenna's on that one tower. No triangulation needed using today's technology.

The same thing will happen with energy storage technology, and people will get forked badly when its all done.

I once owned and operated one of the best 70cm repeaters in the Pittsburgh area. Built most of it from surplus parts and things I picked up at Dayton. Over time, interest waned and it got less and less use. People are generally less interested in building their own devices mainly because the devices we're interested in are far too complex for roll your own types.
 
lith ion are unstable by nature and combustable.
had tesla modules and was glad to never have them in my house again ;)
Very true..... And that means they have to be handled very carefully.
Probably will end up being a combination of both.
Wow! I would not mix them in a million years.
 
I once owned and operated one of the best 70cm repeaters in the Pittsburgh area. Built most of it from surplus parts and things I picked up at Dayton. Over time, interest waned and it got less and less use. People are generally less interested in building their own devices mainly because the devices we're interested in are far too complex for roll your own types.
Ever been to the "Hanging Judge" ham convention in Fort Smith, AR? Some of those HF rigs they are selling nowdays are more complex (and expensive) than stuff NASA has. LOL Just for the retired folks with lots of money saved to part with.

That 2 meter stuff was what got me into chasing those ternaders we have around here over a decade ago. When the cell towers get blown away, we still have repeaters 50 or so miles away we can easily reach from our vehicles. Some of those ternaders are smart though, they first head straight for the weather radar tower. (then they head for the nearest mobile home park) One of them was devious enough to blow down the telephone lines that signaled the sirens to sound in the area it was headed for. The drill for an F5 ternader is very similar to the old nuke attack drills we use to endure in school back in the sixties. You get to the center of your building, sit in a tight bundle with your head crouched between your legs and hands protecting the top of your head. And............ while your there, kiss your butt goodbye!

Speaking of storms, anyone had much hail damage experience with those utility grade PV panels? As far as I've seen, they are supposed to be rated to take up to about one inch hail without damage. Baseball size hail............ humm, well I saw a video of some one shooting a hole in a panel with a shotgun once, about the same result I figure.
 
Comparing prices where I live (almost no consumer protection, no warranty, but all delivered COD),

What I purchased ......
CALB blue 200AH batteries (2nd hand) x16 (had to buy 18 to get 16 that matched) +BMS = $940, usable storage 6kWhr = $160/kWhr.

What I also considered ........
BYD 24V 200AH pack (supposedly new but in a metal box that doesn't look new) +BMS = $900, usable storage 4kWhr = $240/kWhr.
Must 10kWhr powerwall (new) = $2,350, usable storage 8kWhr = $300/kWhr.

Still cheaper to build my own using 2nd hand cells.
 
Last edited:
Back
Top