Future pricing trends for lifepo4

[Ampster]

Will we ever see something like $1.00 per Ah (shipping included) or even less??

We are already there for a 3.2 volt cell. The metric I use which does not require an assumption about voltage is cost per kWh. We are already below $100 per kWh on a global basis. It only takes a sufficient quantity to reduce the freight component to bring the delivered cost down.

 

[Gazoo]

Where does everyone see the pricing for lifepo4 cells trending in the future, both short and long term? Will we ever see something like $1.00 per Ah (shipping included) or even less??

Well if one wants to use amps....then one can get 280 amp cells for as low as around 40 cents per amp....shipped.

 

[mckennab]

My feeling is that LiFePo4 battery prices have fallen dramatically in the last year. I’m very interested in the trend which I think is following a steep learning curve due to it having low material costs - much lower than other lithium chemistries. Anecdotally since first joining this group my perception of the cost for raw diy lifepo4 batteries (which I think this thread is about) have gone down by over 40% and that’s in only a few months.

 

[mckennab]

One of the main problems with pricing standalone power systems is that it is impossible to do until the system is at it’s end of life.
My first LiFePO4 system cost just over $35k for a 400ah 48V pack, inverter, PV and CC, cables and back up generator.
It has been averaging 15kwh/day throughput for 8 years, which puts it’s cost at around 72c/kwh.

Obviously the first kwh cost $35k, the first 2 kwh cost $17.5k each and so on.

That system may last 20 years, or it may have a catastrophic failure tomorrow.

Cheap batteries are great, batteries that will return the greatest kwh/$ are what i’m looking for - unfortunately this figure is a guess based on the life of similar batteries.

How much were the batteries?

 

[mckennab]

Where grid energy averages about .12/kWh. Amazes me how many people think solar energy is cheap, some think it is FREE!.

Just due to battery wear and tear, I figure off grid power cost at least 3X what grid power cost. Which is why I have been replacing anything with auto. defrost (figure 500-600 watts when defrost is running) with chest freezers and freezer converted to fridge.

Starting off the morning at 50.4 instead of 50.0 volts adds 1-2 years to the battery bank. One thing I can't seem to lower is the power usage of the Outback FlexPower 3648. Sixteen big batteries and it still sucks them down. They are not what they used to be. What is?

I'm still not convinced that lithium off grid is cheaper than lead. Though I am converting to LiFePO4 now. They will be stored until the lead expires.

Well 12c/kWh might be the advertised rate but that is only a small part of your actual bill - certainly here in Texas https://www.puc.texas.gov/ publishes a list of 23 fees and charges which may be added to your electric bill including things like nuclear decommissioning, demand, delivery, taxes etc. - so in that sense solar is free. My projected cost over ten years for an RV off grid system is -14c/kWh - pretty competitive plus I’m going places where there ain’t no plugs?

 

[toms]

How much were the batteries?

Batteries were $17k AUD.


I’d be keen to see details of a system that could deliver 14c/kwh power delivery.

 

[berksrunner]

We are already there for a 3.2 volt cell. The metric I use which does not require an assumption about voltage is cost per kWh. We are already below $100 per kWh on a global basis. It only takes a sufficient quantity to reduce the freight component to bring the delivered cost down.

That is much lower than I was aware before commencing this thread!

 

[Steve_S]

I'll chime in with a few thoughts on this...

Lithium Iron Phosphate prismatic cells are now and will remain the cheapest format of Lithium Based chemistry batteries, simply due to the materials used & methods of manufacture. LFP is also not a Static Chemistry, meaning that it is continually being refined & improved. Mostly ALL Lithium Battery Manufacturers produce LFP cells in one format or another as many specialize relative to their other products. LFP production process is also much less expensive equipment-wise and is readily deployable, to that end, many companies are now in process of expanding or looking into expansion into ALL Markets like Europe, North America, Africa and so on. By 2025 "Domestic Regional" production will be available.

LFP will remain the leader on the low end of the Lithium Family for many many years to come. Low End meaning in regards to Energy Density per Litre / Kg. not as in quality. Also remember that more EV's are moving towards using LFP with eh use of CATL Cell-To-Pack and BYD Blade Packs as two examples of several.

LFP pricing is also much more stable than other chemistries simply due to the lack of Cobalt and other minerals which are in high demand and subject to serious fluctuations as demand continues and supplies vary. As new Chemistries & Compositions come available, that will play havoc on mineral & resource costs which LFP will not likely be affected by.

 

[Steve_S]

Simpliphi predicts cobalt-free battery takeover sooner than expected
pv magazine spoke with Catherine Von Burg, CEO of the Californian battery company, to discuss why she believes lithium-iron-phosphate is the chemistry of the near future.
AUGUST 25, 2020 TIM SYLVIA

Simpliphi predicts cobalt-free battery takeover sooner than expected

<b>pv magazine</b> spoke with Catherine Von Burg, CEO of the Californian battery company, to discuss why she believes lithium-iron-phosphate is the chemistry of the near future.

www.pv-magazine.com

 

[newbostonconst]

Volts	Ah	Watts	Watts 8 cells	kw 8 cells	Pack $	$ per kw
3.3​	280​	924​	7392​	7.392​	$850​	$114.99​
3.4​	280​	952​	7616​	7.616​	$850​	$111.61​
3.5​	280​	980​	7840​	7.84​	$850​	$108.42​
3.6​	280​	1008​	8064​	8.064​	$850​	$105.41​

What voltage are you calculating watts at for Lifepo4? It can make a 10% difference in cost as seen above.

 

[berksrunner]

Volts	Ah	Watts	Watts 8 cells	kw 8 cells	Pack $	$ per kw
3.3​	280​	924​	7392​	7.392​	$850​	$114.99​
3.4​	280​	952​	7616​	7.616​	$850​	$111.61​
3.5​	280​	980​	7840​	7.84​	$850​	$108.42​
3.6​	280​	1008​	8064​	8.064​	$850​	$105.41​

What voltage are you calculating watts at for Lifepo4? It can make a 10% difference in cost as seen above.

What would cause these voltage variations? Are they different chemistries?

 

[nosys70]

since your put all the prices in dollar, some changes could occur with currency exchange.
currently dollar is low, so you could see a price increase in USA.
Euros is going average, and Swiss franc is inbetween.
Actually i am paying all in dollars, but my local currency is swiss franc, so i am already winning about 10%.
It seems clearly that china is overcapacity, so for the next 6 months, prices should drop a bit if politics does not interfer.
(USA could add taxes to chinese battey)

 

[JoeHam]

What would cause these voltage variations? Are they different chemistries?

I believe it’s simply different states of charge.

 

[berksrunner]

Volts	Ah	Watts	Watts 8 cells	kw 8 cells	Pack $	$ per kw
3.3​	280​	924​	7392​	7.392​	$850​	$114.99​
3.4​	280​	952​	7616​	7.616​	$850​	$111.61​
3.5​	280​	980​	7840​	7.84​	$850​	$108.42​
3.6​	280​	1008​	8064​	8.064​	$850​	$105.41​

What voltage are you calculating watts at for Lifepo4? It can make a 10% difference in cost as seen above.

Ok upon further reflection, I see what you’re doing here. I should have been more careful to set some parameters in my OP. I think the assumption is that we are dealing with 3.2 v lifepo4 prismatic cells.

 

[berksrunner]

since your put all the prices in dollar, some changes could occur with currency exchange.
currently dollar is low, so you could see a price increase in USA.
Euros is going average, and Swiss franc is inbetween.
Actually i am paying all in dollars, but my local currency is swiss franc, so i am already winning about 10%.
It seems clearly that china is overcapacity, so for the next 6 months, prices should drop a bit if politics does not interfer.
(USA could add taxes to chinese battey)

How do you know that there is an oversupply in China?

 

[newbostonconst]

Ok upon further reflection, I see what you’re doing here. I should have been more careful to set some parameters in my OP. I think the assumption is that we are dealing with 3.2 v lifepo4 prismatic cells.

Yes, would you use the full state of charge voltage to calculate kw or the discharged voltage to calculate kw?

 

[mckennab]

Batteries were $17k AUD.


I’d be keen to see details of a system that could deliver 14c/kwh power delivery.

Item	qty	unit	ext
280Ah LiFep4 Battery Cells	8	106.35	850.8
Gowise 24/200W inverter	1	389.99	389.99
EPEVER 40A SCC	2	175	350
Renogy 100W solar Panel	16	103.44	1655.04
Cables package (estimate)	1	200	200
Fuses/breaker panels (estimate)	1	100	100
Overkill solar 100A 8s 24V BMS	1	110	110
Total			3655.83

10 years @7500Wh/day = 13.8c/KWh - simplistic calculation based on 90% solar efficiency and 5h sun average and of course no maintenance

 

[berksrunner]

Yes, would you use the full state of charge voltage to calculate kw or the discharged voltage to calculate kw?

Use 3.2. That’s the nominal standard for this chemistry. Whenever someone says 3.2v prismatic, it is immediately understood that we are dealing with lifepo4.

 

[nosys70]

my guess for oversupply is just by random surf on internet (and purchasing some)
obviously there are tons of lithium batteries everywhere on internet and price are going down.
what is the reason, i do not know. China and world going EV everywhere, 18650 being obsolete so plants are trying to
get rid of stock, just ton of crap available . Usually this is not always good news for the market.
Last time it happened for solar panels, then the whole industry crashed soon after

 

[berksrunner]

Yes, would you use the full state of charge voltage to calculate kw or the discharged voltage to calculate kw?

If you've ever searched online for lifepo4 prismatic cells, they are always designated as 3.2v which is the nominal voltage for the lifepo4 chemistry -- i don't see why you would want to use some other voltage UNLESS you are using 12 or 24 to just do a quick calculation (which is what I usually do, quite frankly).