Future pricing trends for lifepo4

[newbostonconst]

If you've ever searched online for lifepo4 prismatic cells, they are always designated as 3.2v which is the nominal voltage for the lifepo4 chemistry -- i don't see why you would want to use some other voltage UNLESS you are using 12 or 24 to just do a quick calculation (which is what I usually do, quite frankly).

But when you wanting to know real capacity 3.5 should be used....3.5 is pretty close to the center of the charge/discharge cycle.

3.2*16*280=14.3 kwh
3.5*16*280=15.7 kwh

Using 3.2 is a 9% reduction in what the battery should put out in usable capacity. 9% is huge....

 

[Steve_S]

LFP is actually 2.5V*16*280 = 11.2kWh -to- 3.65V*16*280 = 16,352kWh
MOST people leave 5% at the bottom & 5% at the top
2.625V*16*280 = 11.662kWh -to- 3.4675*16*280 = 15.534kWh

Voltage Matched, cells like the EVE 280's for $80 Something USD will be more inclined to deviate above 3.4V per cell. IF all cells were voltage & Internal Resistance Matched properly, the IR would be similar at 2.5V and at 3.65V between the matched cells. This is a time consuming & costly process which we (those of us who are buying these cells) are not paying for, as that easily doubles the cost. This does NOT mean they are not Grade A Cells, it just means they are partially matched.

 

[Ampster]

3.2*16*280=14.3 kwh
3.5*16*280=15.7 kwh

Using 3.2 is a 9% reduction in what the battery should put out in usable capacity. 9% is huge.

Isn't 3.2 an estimate of the average voltage as you discharge?
Using 3.5 isn't accurate because the voltage drops as you discharge. I am not talking about sag from heavy discharge rates.
All that really matters in the long runwhen comparing is consistency which is why i use the nominal capacity. If i wanted to brag that my pack was 30 kWh instead of 28 kWh I could use another method.

 

[svetz]

...Where does everyone see the pricing for lifepo4 ... trending...

Most of what I've read is that energy storage prices are expected to drop, I'm not sure where the bottom is. Breakthroughs (e.g., discovery of the role the electrolyte plays in dendrites) occur frequently. Originally driven by the EV market, now additionally by Grid storage needs, the Home storage and VPP markets. It'll be interesting to see what see what happens on battery day. I was recently surprised to see you could get 28 kWh of Tesla's PowerWalls installed for under $10k (includes U.S. tax incentives when installed with solar).

 

[Steve_S]

Don't be overly disappointed about Battery Day & Project Roadrunner. There is some ESS Goodies in there but the focus will be on EV cells and the new carbon tube tech along with a few other goodies. There is some really cool Home Energy System stuff coming too but I think that will be split between the Investor Day & Battery Day.

Even Generac has just started releasing their 2nd gen Home Energy Systems with batteries and all.... The game is Clearly Afoot now grab the hounds !
The price points are about to start improving across several sectors.

BTW: I am Tesla Long and very much into w5h. (who, what, where, when, why & how) Something Journalists forgot over the past decade +.

 

[berksrunner]

I now have Battery Day on my calendar just in case!

 

[nosys70]

frankly, if you are a seller (and possibly a chinese one) any number that makes the product look good is nice to take.
That is why now when you purchase a small audio device it is able to output 5000W when while i was young nothing was higher than 120W.
you can find some ads selling you 20KW inverter that are not bigger than shoebox.
I already see product sold on specs calculated on 4.12V instead 3.7

 

[Steve_S]

frankly, if you are a seller (and possibly a chinese one) any number that makes the product look good is nice to take.
That is why now when you purchase a small audio device it is able to output 5000W when while i was young nothing was higher than 120W.
you can find some ads selling you 20KW inverter that are not bigger than shoebox.
I already see product sold on specs calculated on 4.12V instead 3.7

In the early days, Audio Watt output was measured as RMS, they now use PMPO. It's a huge difference.
1 watt RMS equals to 100 PMPO , accordingly 1000 watt RMS equals to 10,000 PMPO.
Says the guy with a Carver Magnetic field amplifier pushing Cerwin Vega DX Speakers. 200W RMS kicks royal butt ! 200W PMPO you can hear it...

 

[mckennab]

I was recently surprised to see you could get 28 kWh of Tesla's PowerWalls installed for under $10k (includes U.S. tax incentives when installed with solar).

Hey that's less than half the price of BattleBorn

 

[Steve_S]

Hey that's less than half the price of BattleBorn

I do not believe that you can actually buy a proper "Tesla Powerwall" and DIY Install it. So there is always going to be an installer cost + all the extras that typically add another 1000-1200 USD to the unit itself.

Up here in Canada, one local supplier lists: TESLA Powerwall 13.5Kwh 7KW Regular price$8,995.00 (6839.26 USD) with a group buy that adds solar & EV Charger on top, plus installation.

$7K USD = Lots of LFP & BMS' included.

 

[mckennab]

I do not believe that you can actually buy a proper "Tesla Powerwall" and DIY Install it. So there is always going to be an installer cost + all the extras that typically add another 1000-1200 USD to the unit itself.

Up here in Canada, one local supplier lists: TESLA Powerwall 13.5Kwh 7KW Regular price$8,995.00 (6839.26 USD) with a group buy that adds solar & EV Charger on top, plus installation.

$7K USD = Lots of LFP & BMS' included.

svetz said $10K for 28kWh INSTALLED (now that did included tax deduction - but still)

 

[Steve_S]

svetz said $10K for 28kWh INSTALLED (now that did included tax deduction - but still)

Well, on the Tesla end of things, a lot is about to change up and boy will it.
That will certainly push others along the way, no doubt at all.
Many players are now getting into HSS/ESS systems and what's "in the hopper" from a few companies are game changers.
Of course, all of this will affect the marketspace and the costs, things are now starting to get really interesting. Hold onto your hat.

 

[svetz]

svetz said $10K for 28kWh INSTALLED (now that did included tax deduction - but still) It was from the Tesla web site.... let me double check... Oops... I messed up... It's $9880 for two powerwalls with the tax incentive of 26%, but that doesn't include the gateway or installation. That's another $4k... so with the gateway and installation is $13k with a 26% tax incentive.

​

...Hey that's less than half the price of BattleBorn...

The useable energy in a PW2 is 13.5 and Battleborn is 1.2 kWh; so 2x13.5=27 kWh (not 28, I'm so not trustworthy!)

Let's see... AltE has the Battleborns at $949. 27/1.2 x $949 = $21,352, and half would be $10.7k... so not quite under half with installation. Add in the 26% discount to Battleborn installed with a PV system and it gets even more competitive.

 

[softdown]

My feeling is that LiFePo4 battery prices have fallen dramatically in the last year. I’m very interested in the trend which I think is following a steep learning curve due to it having low material costs - much lower than other lithium chemistries. Anecdotally since first joining this group my perception of the cost for raw diy lifepo4 batteries (which I think this thread is about) have gone down by over 40% and that’s in only a few months.

I suspect the recent slump in prices may be due to unexpected slowing of demand due to C-19s negative impact on the global economy.

All the lithium batteries are made by machines so output may not have been affected. Just a theory.

 

[softdown]

Batteries were $17k AUD.


I’d be keen to see details of a system that could deliver 14c/kwh power delivery.

Projected is the key word I think.

 

[softdown]

Item	qty	unit	ext
280Ah LiFep4 Battery Cells	8	106.35	850.8
Gowise 24/200W inverter	1	389.99	389.99
EPEVER 40A SCC	2	175	350
Renogy 100W solar Panel	16	103.44	1655.04
Cables package (estimate)	1	200	200
Fuses/breaker panels (estimate)	1	100	100
Overkill solar 100A 8s 24V BMS	1	110	110
Total			3655.83

10 years @7500Wh/day = 13.8c/KWh - simplistic calculation based on 90% solar efficiency and 5h sun average and of course no maintenance

10 year life from a $389 inverter? High frequency inverters are not noted for longevity.
Panel racking costs?
$100 for fuses and circuit breakers? My fused combiner boxes for 16 panels were much more than that I think.
Housing for electrical cables?

Nice thing about lithium - I don't see a lot of expenses for 4/0 welding (fine stranded) cable.

Hope it works out for you. I spent about $20K in 2014 - doing it myself. Bigger system of course.

 

[mckennab]

10 year life from a $389 inverter? High frequency inverters are not noted for longevity.
Panel racking costs?
$100 for fuses and circuit breakers? My fused combiner boxes for 16 panels were much more than that I think.
Housing for electrical cables?

Nice thing about lithium - I don't see a lot of expenses for 4/0 welding (fine stranded) cable.

Hope it works out for you. I spent about $20K in 2014 - doing it myself. Bigger system of course.

Hey don’t stomp on my dream . It’s going to be custom fit into my converted cargo trailer (also on paper). Just going with wills suggestions on the inverter. I figure if I have to spend on a new inverter I’m still ahead. Open to suggestions - only thing ordered is the batteries.

 

[mckennab]

I suspect the recent slump in prices may be due to unexpected slowing of demand due to C-19s negative impact on the global economy.

All the lithium batteries are made by machines so output may not have been affected. Just a theory.

Nah we’re on the knee of the S curve. Beyond a trade war, I see nothing but prices going down.

 

[ArthurEld]

I was wondering about those Tesla quotes. I followed the process all the way through and remembered the price was about double the quote from the first page.

 

[mckennab]

Projected is the key word I think.

I'll report back in ten years (plus the time it takes me to actually build it)