Get ready for the Price increase

[ghostwriter66]

When shipping is more than the manufacturing makes sense to ship the manufacturing. They make car batteries here, why not Lifepo?

Simply because China and Afghanistan has the worlds largest reserves of Lithium - 92% I think at last estimation - BUT most importantly the average Chinese Lithium Factory worker pulls in - about $5-7000 USD a year ....

So shipping the Lithium here - dealing with the Unions - EPA - OSHA - strikes - Covid, and the list goes on - that $120 LiFePO4 280Ah battery you are getting out of China will be about $350 -- easily ....

 

[ghostwriter66]

It would be nice if a Chinese supplier opened up a US warehouse.

SOOO there is a Chinese battery manufacturer that has recently opened up a large warehouse in HOUSTON TEXAS. I plan on going down and seeing them sometime this week (if that tropical storm doesn't wreck everything) or next week for sure ... They are in the process of importing both A's and B batteries ranging from 60Ah to 310Ah according to the spreadsheet they sent me ... also I have helped them "Americanize" the spreadsheet to only show what we need to see -- like Type, quantity, expected delivery date to Houston, and price ... there's a few other columns also BUT once I check them out I will let you know ..

I just don't like to recommend or point anyone to anything that I have not done myself ...

Now with that said - they are already going to charge you shipping from CHN to HOU .. then you are going to have to pay from HOU to wherever you are also ... so the batteries will be a little more than normal -- BUT with that said - its a 3-7 day shipping time instead of 60-75 ...

more to follow ....

 

[MurphyGuy]

I'd comment on the politics behind this, but, well, if it happens (massive inflation) and things go to tihs then the things that do it are already in place..

Its why I spent as much as I could last year and did the things I did (off grid).

Heading to buy more ammo tomorrow, along with gardening supplies....

Is what it is. Just remember, people voted for this.

Wow.. now is a terrible time to buy ammo as it is two to three times the normal price. Bought all mine back in 2018 before anyone ever heard the word "coronavirus".

We spent $400 on heirloom seeds, which we then packed in Mylar and are sitting at the bottom of the deep freezer. We also purchased several hundred pounds of fertilizer, weed killer, and pesticides.. and one of those Earthway 1001 push seeders.

 

[JMc]

Simply because China and Afghanistan has the worlds largest reserves of Lithium - 92% I think at last estimation - BUT most importantly the average Chinese Lithium Factory worker pulls in - about $5-7000 USD a year ....

The biggest reserves of lithium are in South America, especially in the altiplano region where Chile, Bolivia, and Peru intersect. When I visited Chile in 2010 the Chinese were already a noticeable presence, and by 2013 they had started their massive road and seaport project through Peru at the northern border of Chile to link Bolivia to the Pacific Ocean.

 

[time2roll]

Maybe inflation is due to actual shortage of supply causing the price to bid up.
Time will tell if we can get back to having a competitive market.

 

[Daddy Tanuki]

There's already a supplier on here that's done a pump and dump with used cells, weather intentional or not.

With the MASSIVE shipping delay, it would be entirely possible to do a ponzi-like scheme. Take orders, blame the shipping company, refund some, rinse, dry, repeat. It would eventually catch up with you, but as long as you continue to sell batteries at a faster rate than when you started, you could theoretically keep the growth percentage as "profit" while still issuing refunds. Or you could just take the money and declare bankruptcy, a pretty common business practice believe it or not.

The long shipping times are really opening doors for unscrupulous actors. Most of the time the credit charge back window is closed before you even receive your item, if you receive it at all.

It would be nice if a Chinese supplier opened up a US warehouse.

was this recently or something in the near past, I ask as I am less than 3 months into the forum and am curious as to who the bad actor was

 

[Zwy]

As you can imagine I get a tremendous amount of our battery stuff we use at work out of China. Mostly because of availability first and then prices second.

One of our lead buyers that lives in China is saying that shipping cost has increased by about 300% from last year - China to LAX and this has greatly affected the LPO companies that rely on shipping. Just finding shipping containers themselves is virtually impossible - with most of them fully booked now 6 months out. One of the LPO companies that we work with, is now saying booking entire containers (40'x11.5'x8) that what use to cost them $1500 from China to LAX is now running $6500-$10000 due to the higher demand and container shortages.

SO if the transportation has increased sooo much why has prices pretty much only crept up?? Well the honest answer is that most of these LPO companies are making some damn good profit selling the batteries to us at what we are willing to pay for them. LPO batteries in China are SIGNIFICANTLY cheaper as you can imagine - so them eating a little bit of the shipping price - more and more - on shipping was just the cost of doing business. (Also lets face it - if they raised their prices then we just look for a lower guy. (That use to work - now it bites us in our butts because all the GRADE B's being passed off as A's)

NOW they simply cannot keep eating the costs AND pay the MUCH higher shipping rates - so we are expecting a large increase in shipping costs for the batteries to hit soonest. Of course no one on the call today could tell us what exactly that meant -- was it going to be $100 or $500 or "one million dollars" (Austin Powers) more but the days of many of these companies eating the costs are going to come to an end.

I don't see this happening overnight - BUT I do see us all looking back on all of these current prices a year from now and saying - "man if I had only stocked up" ...

The other huge issue is Christmas is coming. Any day now Home Depot and Walmart will start playing their XMAS music and the terrible looking Christmas stuff will start coming out. THAT means that YOUR battery shipments will NOW be competing with Christmas stuff to be shipped -- and guess who will win ....

((Total sidenote but our import agent told us that if you know what you are going to get ppl for Christmas you might want to start stocking up now. Of course this is only for us girls that plan this stuff out for months - and not the guys that do all the shopping on Amazon 2 days before XMAS!!))((But even Amazon is saying that they expect a large Christmas shortage due to the China shipping))

SOOO Shipping (SEA) prices are going up - the time to even get the goods out of and into a port is 2X as long - and this is not going to end well I don't think for many....

I don't see LPO prices going up to much - probably 20% by January 2022 - but the shipping costs are going to be what hurts...

Between COVID-19, COVID-D, COVID-MU, COVID-EIEIO + the US Govt printing trillions and trillions of dolalrs that is becoming more worthless every day and fueling inflation heavily -- I'm personally about to get as many batteries I can NOW for MY PERSONAL use which I think I may need in 2022.

NOW - all of the above is my personal thoughts -- I am an engineer and not an economist. Heck I'm not even sure what economist do, but I know that I am not one of them. No one should be basing their purchases on what I say - but with that said - I personally don't see things getting better any time soon - if at all.

We've got 100 days before Christmas -- and THEN we go into the Chinese New Year shortly after that .... just saying .....

I had 2 projects I needed cells for in the future and ordered back mid July from Amy and she had quoted me and shipping had increased but she honored the deal. My cells arrived in about the normal 35 days which surprised me.

I saw this coming, I read financial news all the time and knew shipping was getting tighter and price increases were coming. I think if one wants cells for a future project, they should order today, not tomorrow as the situation will continue to get tighter with more price increases. I'm currently seeing inventory replacement for my business getting stretched out as the shipping congestion worsens. I had heard a story where a company overseas needed a container shipped within 2 days and was willing to pay $15K USD for just shipping that container and was told it couldn't happen for a month.

I do have to wonder why this is all occurring at once though. Ports were never this congested before and I can't see there really being an increase in products shipped year to year. Things just don't make sense.

 

[Sanwizard]

I had 2 projects I needed cells for in the future and ordered back mid July from Amy and she had quoted me and shipping had increased but she honored the deal. My cells arrived in about the normal 35 days which surprised me.

I saw this coming, I read financial news all the time and knew shipping was getting tighter and price increases were coming. I think if one wants cells for a future project, they should order today, not tomorrow as the situation will continue to get tighter with more price increases. I'm currently seeing inventory replacement for my business getting stretched out as the shipping congestion worsens. I had heard a story where a company overseas needed a container shipped within 2 days and was willing to pay $15K USD for just shipping that container and was told it couldn't happen for a month.

I do have to wonder why this is all occurring at once though. Ports were never this congested before and I can't see there really being an increase in products shipped year to year. Things just don't make sense.

Kinda weird right? Sorta like it was planned? You will own nothing and be happy?

 

[circus]

I do have to wonder why this is all occurring at once though. Ports were never this congested before and I can't see there really being an increase in products shipped year to year. Things just don't make sense.

Perhaps suppliers are tempting a last gasp before the prices plunge. In six months several fundamental patents expire.

 

[A.Justice]

was this recently or something in the near past, I ask as I am less than 3 months into the forum and am curious as to who the bad actor was

It's a group buy currently going on. It was either a forum member, or his supplier (I'll assume supplier to avoid potential libel) that seems to have unloaded a bunch of very low quality cells on everybody.

 

[Sanwizard]

If you see any .30-06 can you pick it up for me. Anything less than $55/box is good. I have some 7.62x54r to trade.

While I would not like to see cell prices go up a bunch, even if they increased $10/cell, it would still cost me less to DIY a battery than to get one off the shelf.

Wow, I sold all my 338LM for $45 per box of 20. I should have held on a bit longer!

 

[ghostwriter66]

The biggest reserves of lithium are in South America, especially in the altiplano region where Chile, Bolivia, and Peru intersect. When I visited Chile in 2010 the Chinese were already a noticeable presence, and by 2013 they had started their massive road and seaport project through Peru at the northern border of Chile to link Bolivia to the Pacific Ocean.

YEP - the Chinese seems to be all over the place ... LOL

 

[ghostwriter66]

was this recently or something in the near past, I ask as I am less than 3 months into the forum and am curious as to who the bad actor was

The issue is that they are ALL good actors - they are ALL bad actors. Allot of times the sales guys do not know what the warehouse guys are packing ... the warehouse guys tell the sales guys that they are packing (64) Grade A cells and then turn around and try to get rid of the Grade B lithium's that are piling up in the back ...

One big difference between Americans and the Chinese is that the Americans will bitch and moan until they get compensation or refunded or the right product or a heart attack ...Chinese on the other hand sort of say "well that sucks" but don't go into rants on the internet or social media or really rock the boat ... The Chinese social media is pretty locked down .... so the Chinese companies dealing with Americans have not yet really learned to NOT screw with us because - well frankly - we all actually don't back down very often ....

And I tell you - there is nothing like a Chinese American girl losing her mind on the phone with these ppl - I make Godzilla look like a pussy and that is something the Chinese - especially the men - just rarely see.

Also Americans don't accept excuses very well .... sorry that your dog got ran over and your sister is in the hospital and YES you will probably loose your job over this -- BUT you sold me Grade B batteries and frankly - that's all I am concerned about getting fixed right now....

SO with all of that said - until you actually open that box and do a capacity charge - you don't know if you got meat or potatoes... (old Chinese proverb)

 

[ghostwriter66]

I had 2 projects I needed cells for in the future and ordered back mid July from Amy and she had quoted me and shipping had increased but she honored the deal. My cells arrived in about the normal 35 days which surprised me.

I saw this coming, I read financial news all the time and knew shipping was getting tighter and price increases were coming. I think if one wants cells for a future project, they should order today, not tomorrow as the situation will continue to get tighter with more price increases. I'm currently seeing inventory replacement for my business getting stretched out as the shipping congestion worsens. I had heard a story where a company overseas needed a container shipped within 2 days and was willing to pay $15K USD for just shipping that container and was told it couldn't happen for a month.

I do have to wonder why this is all occurring at once though. Ports were never this congested before and I can't see there really being an increase in products shipped year to year. Things just don't make sense.

China shut down the world’s third-busiest port 3 weeks ago after a single worker tested positive for COVID-19. ONE SINGLE WORKER. !!! The Meidong Terminal processes about 25% of the cargo that comes out of China to the US.

And don't forget when the huge Typhoon hit one of the major ports in July it is still now only getting back to 80% operational ...

and the list goes on and on ....

So shipping companies are having to now push their wares 150 miles north ...working where I work I can see literally every ship and its status ... right now there are 48 huge container ships that have been waiting for up to 2 weeks to get into a port - to unload - pick up new cargo and head to the states -- so your batteries you ordered may be sitting at Chinese Holding zone waiting for that ship that is 3 weeks late to get in to get loaded ....

and then on the US side you just basically have the Unions slowing things down to remind everyone "who runs Thunderdome" (Mad Max) ...

BUT - it isn't going to get better - batteries aren't going to ever comedown in price - and shipping costs are about to rocket ...

 

[Hedges]

...working where I work I can see literally every ship and its status ... right now there are 48 huge container ships that have been waiting for up to 2 weeks to get into a port - to unload - pick up new cargo and head to the states

Hope that doesn't mean your employer has you working as a glorified shipping & receiving clerk, rather than doing electrical engineering.

I've seen that before, one "organization" that was delighted to have a lady on their professional staff assigned her to make sure we all turned our time cards in on time. She was an MIT PhD who did her dissertation on relativistic physics. She moved on, now does something she loves that involves diving.

 

[sunshine]

Things just don't make sense.

There will be a number of causes but one obvious factor must be the increase in individual wealth world wide and much of this wealth being redirected into buying consumer goods rather than pandemic restricted purchases such as travel and entertainment.

 

[Daddy Tanuki]

The issue is that they are ALL good actors - they are ALL bad actors. Allot of times the sales guys do not know what the warehouse guys are packing ... the warehouse guys tell the sales guys that they are packing (64) Grade A cells and then turn around and try to get rid of the Grade B lithium's that are piling up in the back ...

One big difference between Americans and the Chinese is that the Americans will bitch and moan until they get compensation or refunded or the right product or a heart attack ...Chinese on the other hand sort of say "well that sucks" but don't go into rants on the internet or social media or really rock the boat ... The Chinese social media is pretty locked down .... so the Chinese companies dealing with Americans have not yet really learned to NOT screw with us because - well frankly - we all actually don't back down very often ....

And I tell you - there is nothing like a Chinese American girl losing her mind on the phone with these ppl - I make Godzilla look like a pussy and that is something the Chinese - especially the men - just rarely see.

Also Americans don't accept excuses very well .... sorry that your dog got ran over and your sister is in the hospital and YES you will probably loose your job over this -- BUT you sold me Grade B batteries and frankly - that's all I am concerned about getting fixed right now....

SO with all of that said - until you actually open that box and do a capacity charge - you don't know if you got meat or potatoes... (old Chinese proverb)

fair enough the guy I ordered from let me know in advance that they were not brand new grade A but A- B+ area from sitting in storage more than the time allotted by that company. I have had them in service for about 3 months with zero issues (other than BMS buffoonery but thats another sea tale to be told.) I just ordered another 24 from them as the first sale went well. guess we will see how it works out for me.

 

[Daddy Tanuki]

It's a group buy currently going on. It was either a forum member, or his supplier (I'll assume supplier to avoid potential libel) that seems to have unloaded a bunch of very low quality cells on everybody.

ouch.

 

[Bob B]

US Manufacturing ?

 

[stuart_]

I have one joke about economists: I'm an economist. I predicted 18 of the last 3 recessions.