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Largest panels people are using and forecast for 2023?

fafrd

Solar Wizard
Joined
Aug 11, 2020
Messages
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I’m interested to understand what largest-size panels people are using on their homes.

I just picked up some 380W 144-half-cut-cell panels and it seems like I’m China you can purchase 500W and even 550W panels (at reasonable $/W).

So in addition to what largest panels folks are using on their homes today, I’m interested in any forecasts for where the largest end of the residential market will be by 2023 (obviously including 72-cell-sized panels within the ‘residential’ market).

What do folks think - will we see 600W, 650W or even higher panels aimed at the residential market here in the US by 2023?
 
Yeah, I know about the scams / confusion and also about the larger-size panels (not relevant to my question).

I could purchase 430W 144 half-cut-cell panels today (here in the Bay Area) but the price was higher than makes sense for me right now ($0.60/Watt).

I’m counting on the price for those larger panels to be coming down as the tarrifs are eliminated as well as the trend towards larger panel wattage and lower $/W to continue.

You can already find 500W 72-cell panels on Alibaba for $0.20/W in small quantities and 550W 72-cell panels in commercial quantities, so 2 years from now I’m pretty sure those sizes will be widely-available here.

And Trina announced a 600W panel last June: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/07/20/trina-reveals-600-w-module/ (though I can’t tell if it is oversized compared to 72-cell panels or not).

So scheisters and the befuddled aside, I’m guessing 2023 will bring larger panels in the the 600-650W range here to the States, and hopefully at prices breaking under $0.20.kW (at least in quantity).
 
Timely topic, I have spaces for 4 panels in landscape on the south side of my little ranch. What panels are the sweet spot now with highest output?
 
Yeah, I know about the scams / confusion and also about the larger-size panels (not relevant to my question).

And Trina announced a 600W panel last June: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/07/20/trina-reveals-600-w-module/ (though I can’t tell if it is oversized compared to 72-cell panels or not).

So scheisters and the befuddled aside, I’m guessing 2023 will bring larger panels in the the 600-650W range here to the States, and hopefully at prices breaking under $0.20.kW (at least in quantity).

Larger means larger. A 600W panel is definitely going to be oversized. The best solar panels are about 20% efficient regardless of size, so a 600W will be 50% larger (area) than a 400W panel. Did you mean something different?
 
Larger means larger. A 600W panel is definitely going to be oversized. The best solar panels are about 20% efficient regardless of size, so a 600W will be 50% larger (area) than a 400W panel. Did you mean something different?
I primarily meant panels that were larger in power without being larger in size, so driven by increases in efficiency.

How long it will take to trickle-down to widely-available products, we can debate, but there is no debate that increases in efficiency to at least 30% are on the way: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.po...ar-cell-efficiency-record-perovskite-silicon/

On the current-generation of 500W+ panels, I’m specifically interested in max power at the size of 72-cell and equivalents like 144-half-cut-cell. meaning ~2 meters by ~1 meter.

So I was not including the higher power panels which achieved that increase by adding columns (8x12 cells rather than 6x12 cells).

What screwed me up is that I missed the fact that several manufacturers are now using larger wafer sizes, and that means all ‘72-cell’ panels are no longer the same (some are longer in both X and Y).

The 380W panels I just bought are a true 39” x 78”, so classic 72-cell dimensions.

That same vender offers 144-half-cut-cell 415W panels that are 39.2” x 79.3”, so they are bigger than classic 72-cell but only by ~2.2% (so I’d be inclined to include them in my definition of ‘classic’).

And then they offer a 425W model with dimensions of 40.6” x 81.9” (so ~9.3% bigger than classic 72-cell). Those are obviously trying to get close to 72-cell dimensions but it’s hard to overlook a 3.9” / 5% increase in width, so maybe I’ll call those ‘classic+’ (<110% the area of classic 72-cell with at least one dimension within 105% of classic).

And finally, my vendor also currently offers a 430W panel which is 41.42” x 83.27” or 13.4% larger in area and over 6% larger in either dimension, so I’d have to put that in a different panel class entirely, classic++?

Outside of the US, Jinko is currently selling 540W modules: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1mMWUk55lh5yJawJQbIp5hNK2p2VGTNeR/view

with a size of 44.65” x 87.8”, 29% larger in area and over 12% larger in either dimension, so definitely a member of your ‘larger size’ camp and way outside of the ‘classic 72-cell’ category.

It’s kind of a mess, really. Until they settle down all these new panel sizes to a more limited set of standards, mixing and matching panels is going to be much more difficult.

The 380W modules I just bought had efficiency of 19.08%, so once we see modules with 30% efficiency widely-available, that should translate to similar-sized panels offering power of close to 600W.

So if that’s the roadmap in front of us: 39” x 78” panels delivering close to 600W, another way of asking my question is where on that roadmap folks think we will be before the end of 2023?
 
Is 30% worth the risks associated with putting more lead in the environment? There are lots of technical hurdles to overcome. The compounds they are having the success with are lead based synthetic perovskites. Most fluff articles omit that. Popular Mechanics is so fluffy I want to snuggle it.

In addition to an isolated snapshot, a roadmap has a beginning with a path leading to that moment. Already, perovskite based cell rate of improvement is slowing to a crawl.

Known:
  • It's taken 40 years to boost from 12% to 19-20% for silicon panels with a dramatic reduction in price.
  • Price is the driving factor with panels.
  • Only a small portion of the market share will see premiums tied to efficiencies as value added. The bulk of the market will not. Evidence: Gallium Arsenide multi-junction cells have been available for decades (40%+), but no one is willing to pay that premium. Exception: spacecraft builders due to the $10,000/lb cost to orbit.
Conclusions:
  • Perovskite based panels may never happen except in specialized or commercial applications where contamination can be better controlled.
  • Competitively priced consumer accessible panel efficiencies will be negligibly to slightly improved before the end of 2023.
 
Is 30% worth the risks associated with putting more lead in the environment? There are lots of technical hurdles to overcome. The compounds they are having the success with are lead based synthetic perovskites. Most fluff articles omit that. Popular Mechanics is so fluffy I want to snuggle it.

In addition to an isolated snapshot, a roadmap has a beginning with a path leading to that moment. Already, perovskite based cell rate of improvement is slowing to a crawl.

Known:
  • It's taken 40 years to boost from 12% to 19-20% for silicon panels with a dramatic reduction in price.
  • Price is the driving factor with panels.
  • Only a small portion of the market share will see premiums tied to efficiencies as value added. The bulk of the market will not. Evidence: Gallium Arsenide multi-junction cells have been available for decades (40%+), but no one is willing to pay that premium. Exception: spacecraft builders due to the $10,000/lb cost to orbit.
That is exacrly the kind of insight I was seeking when I started the thread - thanks,
Conclusions:
  • Perovskite based panels may never happen except in specialized or commercial applications where contamination can be better controlled.
  • Competitively priced consumer accessible panel efficiencies will be negligibly to slightly improved before the end of 2023.
And that is exactly the sort of opinion I was seeking.

The 335W panels I purchased in 2016 have an efficiency of 17.1%. Now, 5 years later, the 380W panels I just purchased (for 62% of the price!) have an efficiency of 19.08% (an 11.6% increase in efficiency over ~5 years).

Of the panels I referred to earlier, the only one exceeding 20% efficiency was the 415W panel (from Trina Solar) at 20.4%.

That panel fits classic 72-cell dimensions (39.21” x 79.33”) but carries a premium today that I was unwilling to pay).

Trina currently offers a 450W panel with efficiency of 20.6%: https://diendannangluongtaitao.com/uploads/short-url/s5msMWb80btyvTiur3RS74gj2EY.pdf

But with dimensions of 40.94” x 82.76”, this panel is 11.4% larger than classic 72-cell panels and so must be based on the new larger wafer sizes (and belongs in the classic+category).

If the ~2.3%/year efficiency increase I’ve experienced at the sweet spot of the market continues, that would translate to 400W by 2023 (at under $0.40/W) and if the current premium for the 415W panel is tarrif-driven, that could mean we’ll see at least 415W panels if not 435W panels at that same price/W by then...
 
Yes, there are exciting prospects for new technologies and efficiencies and bigger sizes but there are practical considerations too: Some of the larger PV panels are rapidly approaching the maximum dimensions and weight that a DIY consumer can conveniently handle on his own.
Beyond that, the larger ones may be more suitable for commercial projects and installed by teams of pros.
 
Yes, there are exciting prospects for new technologies and efficiencies and bigger sizes but there are practical considerations too: Some of the larger PV panels are rapidly approaching the maximum dimensions and weight that a DIY consumer can conveniently handle on his own.
Beyond that, the larger ones may be more suitable for commercial projects and installed by teams of pros.
For sure. That’s why I’m primarily asking about close-to-standard 72-cell panel sizes and not the larger panels with 8 columns or using larger cell sizes.

My existing 4kW array is 72-cell and it was very manageable on my roof (for my son and I). I’m planning a new array in ~2023 coordinated planned-for EV purchase by then, and since 72-cell panels fit my roof well, I want to stick close to those dimensions...

I’m pretty shocked that in 2021 I purchased 380W panels for less than 62% the price I paid for 335W panels (so new panels 13.4% larger than the earlier ones) only 5 years ago...

That’s a reduction of 54% in $/W in just 5 years and I’m interested in opinions as to whether that trend will continue for the next 2-1/2 years...

Looked at another way, if I focus on production density and allow myself to spend up to as much as I did 5 years ago, I could buy a 415W panel (24% more Watts/unit_area) for less than I paid for 335W panels in 2016 ($0.50/W today versus $0.72/W in 2016).

Especially once you factor in the impact of tarrifs which will hopefully be a thing of the past by 2023, I’m guessing there is a good chance that we’ll continue to see ~5% increases in production density as well as $/W for the next few years...
 
A good overview on this subject: https://www.cleanenergyreviews.info/blog/most-powerful-solar-panels

Trina is using 210mm wafers which make it a challenge to offer a traditional 60-cell size.

With larger cells, they can offer a 150-cell 3rd-cut panel approaching the size of classic 72-cell panels: their 5x10 150-cellpanel has dimensions of 43.39” (+11.25%) x 86.1” (+10.4%) delivering 505W @ 21.0% efficiency in an area 123% the size of traditional 72-cell panels: https://loopsolar.com/datasheet/tri...-bifacial-mono-crystalline-150-cell-India.pdf

Jinko is using smaller 185mm wafers but sticking to half-cut. Their 6x12 144 half-cut-cell panel is 44.65” (14.5%) x 87.8” (+12.6%) delivering 540W @ 21.35% efficiency in an area 129% the size of traditional 72-cell panels: https://jinkosolar.eu/files/jinko/d...r-Pro/Mono-72/TR JKM520-540M-7TL4-V-A1-EN.pdf

I think the next couple of years will determine whether these major players succeed in getting the market to accept even larger 72-cell-class panels or they will need to find a way to pare back their offerings to better-fit historical standards (for 60-cell and 72-cell), but I believe it’s pretty likely we’ll see wide availability of 72-cell-class panels in the ~550W ballpark for sweet spot pricing of under $0.4/W by 2023...
 
Sorry, it's an old thread here... I'm looking to purchase and install some Trina 505w, but running into basic question - what equipment would be compatible? I looked at the Enphase IQ7 series and it looks like only 450w is covered. I'm not certian I would like to go with Solar Edge which has some 505 and 900w optimizers. Any thoughts on compatible equipment? Thanks
 
530w 144 split cell panels $0.33pw to my port from China...prices have come down but shipping is the killer now.
 
Most of teh Major Reputable Manufacturers like Trina, CanadianSolar, SillFab and so on have Hi Performance panels in excess of 400W up to 750W ! Without a doubt we will see 1000W Panels but what format by the time it reaches production to consumer level, who knows exactly. Many things are changing in the cell manufacturing & junctioning tech.

Mono-Facial & Bi-Facial is where things get confusing for many. Bi-Facial Panels will always rate higher numbers obviously BUT they are not necessarily appropriate for many applications.

Solar Tile Technology is also now on the upswing and not only Tesla but a LOT of competition is cooking up in that area and within 5 Years that segment will be pretty crazy. Shingle Tech presents opportunities for additional tech as well as alternative materials. One such is using a combination of Solar Shingle backed with low cost TEG plates that both generate electricity but also cool the panel to optimize output & acts as a Thermal Break to the building structure (which is another benefit for heating & cooling by preventing thermal transfer to/from a structure)
 
Yah, just got a quote for 60 panels... 7500 for shipping!
Also, (I don't know what country you are in) such imports may be subject to Government Cash Grabs called Tariffs & Supplemental Duties or other wonderously deceptive terms. Look at prices for Domestically manufactured Panels and the pricing with the shipment differences (forget duties & foly tariffs) and it presents a different picture. Also when buying more than 2 lift (40 panels) you can negotiate a bit better with many local suppliers, especially those who supply for commercial operations that are open to public, as they often get a margin of "spares".

BTW: I am buying Canadian Made SillFab Panels for my current project and used Canadian Made CanadianSolar Panels for my main build a couple of years ago,
Sillfab list of panels made in US & Canada. https://silfabsolar.com/products/

 
I think the next couple of years will determine whether these major players succeed in getting the market to accept even larger 72-cell-class panels or they will need to find a way to pare back their offerings to better-fit historical standards (for 60-cell and 72-cell), but I believe it’s pretty likely we’ll see wide availability of 72-cell-class panels in the ~550W ballpark for sweet spot pricing of under $0.4/W by 2023...
the larger the waiver - the less waste you got when you cut it into smaller square pieces.

Maybe going to see not only half cut - but quarter cut or whatever cut to make them more efficient.
What do folks think - will we see 600W, 650W or even higher panels aimed at the residential market here in the US by 2023?
I hope that CGIS is coming back and people invest in the technology. I bought a 5kw array in 2011 with CGIS which experienced almost no power loss with the best year of production in 2019.


It's great solar technology for areas with diffuse lighting. Those things work better under clouds then in direct sunshine. While I see my silicon based solar panels loose a ton of their power when a cloud drifts by - the CGIS are increasing. Would be a nice complementary solar technology.
 
the larger the waiver - the less waste you got when you cut it into smaller square pieces.

Maybe going to see not only half cut - but quarter cut or whatever cut to make them more efficient.

I hope that CGIS is coming back and people invest in the technology. I bought a 5kw array in 2011 with CGIS which experienced almost no power loss with the best year of production in 2019.


It's great solar technology for areas with diffuse lighting. Those things work better under clouds then in direct sunshine. While I see my silicon based solar panels loose a ton of their power when a cloud drifts by - the CGIS are increasing. Would be a nice complementary solar technology.
Are the CGIS panels still available?
Thanks,
Steve
 
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