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LIFEPO4 battery prices rising/stuck?

Itsasprinter

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Mar 25, 2020
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I have been on the lookout for 150-200 ah LIFEPO4 batteries for about 3 months. Normally I expect technology prices to drop gradually. Maybe not noticeable over 3 months but if anything I see prices in the US to be stuck or rising slightly. The same for drop-in batteries and for LIFEPO4 cells. Am I observing the effect of tariffs, corona related shipping issues, and increased demand from the prepper community or are things normal?
Is this a bad time to buy and prices will drift down once corona is (hopefully) done with in 3-4 months or is the price stability normal and may continue for potentially much longer? I'd love to hear from people who have observed battery and cell prices in the US over several years and hear what they think is going on.
 
WOW a crystal ball sure would be nice...

As with nearly everything... supply and demand regulate pricing.

Many think the covid-19 situation will not subside... ever.

Many think a slowdown will relax precautions, and allow a resurge of it...

Fingers crossed... buy what you can afford. Hope for the best, pray and prepare...
 
I have been on the lookout for 150-200 ah LIFEPO4 batteries for about 3 months. Normally I expect technology prices to drop gradually. Maybe not noticeable over 3 months but if anything I see prices in the US to be stuck or rising slightly. The same for drop-in batteries and for LIFEPO4 cells. Am I observing the effect of tariffs, corona related shipping issues, and increased demand from the prepper community or are things normal?
Is this a bad time to buy and prices will drift down once corona is (hopefully) done with in 3-4 months or is the price stability normal and may continue for potentially much longer? I'd love to hear from people who have observed battery and cell prices in the US over several years and hear what they think is going on.
As a Victron LFP and Battle Born distributor, I can certainly attest that the tariffs caused multiple price increases last year - Battle Born raised our prices twice in the last quarter of '19, though they encouraged us and all their distributors to hold our retail pricing steady regardless, under the assumption that we'd see the tariffs ease up at the end of this year (though that bit remains to be seen). We've certainly held our retail pricing at the same level for now, but one more increase and we'll have to respond in kind just because they're expensive batteries even at our cost, there's simply not a lot of margin in them.
Victron has held pretty steady on their LFP pricing because, even though (like 73% of the world's LFP cells) their Winston cells are manufactured in China, the rest of the assembly is in India/Malaysia and so I believe they're able to skate around the tariffs a bit. Of course, that being said, Victron LFP prices have always been super high, so maybe they're just absorbing some of the cost for now.

I can't speak to any other manufacturers but again, literally 73% of all the world's LFP cell manufacturing is in China, so the tariffs and the virus have both taken a toll on basically every LFP battery company; hopefully as China ramps production back up in the coming months we'll see prices drop a little, and of course once the tariffs get dropped (hopefully) around November, pricing may come down a little more.

Then again, lithium is in relatively short supply around the world, so at the end of the day there's only so much pricing can possibly drop. If anything, we're more likely to see an entirely different chemistry take off in the meantime... hopefully one with more readily-available components.
 
I can say with certainty that prices will go up, stay the same, or go down.

Anyone who claims to be able to say which one it will be is fibbing at best.
 
My research is telling me that freight increased $1.43/kg from China to states. This is driven mainly by number of flights being significantly reduced. Freight is sitting on docks waiting for planes/transport. The other factor that should be driving shipping down is oil is at lows from decades ago. So, when all the dust settles, flights/shipping will resume to normal. Oil will likely rebound to a degree, but not until the glut depleted.

Since the virus is subsiding in China, the factories are ramping back up to normal production level. So, supply will be also getting back to normal.

One factor that is mentioned by Justin above is that Lithium is in short supply.

Sooo, IMO more factors point to LFP going down rather than up in the coming months. All contingent on the world's recovery from the virus.
 
Thanks you all for your educated opinions. I think we will see some price drops after corona normalization (hopefully that won't drag on beyond 3-4 months). And the damaged economies may even reduce prices further even if I'd prefer a healthy economy. I do wonder if demand will ramp up significantly with more people not just going grid-tied but also going with storage walls which definitely is becoming a thing in California due to the black outs. If prices drop enough then Lithium will replace all or most lead-acid batteries which then causes further price drops. Sort of how LCD panels have replaced CRTs first on an expensive need basis (laptops), then a luxury (TVs) and sooner or later a commodity to the point that CRTs are not made anymore.
For right now I'll probably continue to live with my house AGMs that came with the van I bought and buy into LIFEPO4 when I can get ~3000 wh for less than ~$1000 -- but if prices drop dramatically in the further future then buying into expensive batteries with longer warranties makes less sense to me.
 
For right now I'll probably continue to live with my house AGMs that came with the van I bought and buy into LIFEPO4 when I can get ~3000 wh for less than ~$1000 -- ....
If I'm not mistaking, we are within your budget now. I bought four of these 280AH cell for $583 delivered to door. 280Ahx13.2V=3696Wh. If calculating usable power @80%, then usable power is 2957Wh.

I do agree with you, although no one has a crystal ball, more factors lead to prices dropping in future than rising.

I hope all are well out there. Even though we are starting to see some promising figures that reflect bending of the curve, we are hardly out of the woods. The only way we continue to see improvement is for all of us to continue to practice COVID-19 responsibility. My hat is off to all of our heroes out there, the medical personnel, truckers, grocery and other essential personnel!!! All stay well.

Regards,
Mike
 
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My research is telling me that freight increased $1.43/kg from China to states. This is driven mainly by number of flights being significantly reduced. Freight is sitting on docks waiting for planes/transport. The other factor that should be driving shipping down is oil is at lows from decades ago. So, when all the dust settles, flights/shipping will resume to normal. Oil will likely rebound to a degree, but not until the glut depleted.

Since the virus is subsiding in China, the factories are ramping back up to normal production level. So, supply will be also getting back to normal.

One factor that is mentioned by Justin above is that Lithium is in short supply.

Sooo, IMO more factors point to LFP going down rather than up in the coming months. All contingent on the world's recovery from the virus.
Plenty of lithium available.
Biggest reserves are in Chile followed by Australia and Argentina. And Musk built the battery factory in Nevada because of the lithium being available locally.
 
Plenty of lithium available.
Biggest reserves are in Chile followed by Australia and Argentina. And Musk built the battery factory in Nevada because of the lithium being available locally.
So all indication now point toward lowering prices...a good thing for folks on this forum!!!
 
Airline shipment has and i think will keep increasing as the number of flights and destinations from China to the world has been reduced. Also a lot of passenger airlines will go bankrupt, further reducing the options.

The battery prices maybe will stay the same for a while, but if the supply chain is severy disrupted maybe the source materials can get scarce and increase the prices.

So IMHO there is a high change of the batteries getting expensive or unavailable, for example right now i cannot source LV2424 inverters as the manufacturer cannot produce them right now. If i where you i would get the batteries while i can, its better to cry about them getting cheaper in the future than criying because they are now very expensive or maybe even unavailable.
 
Playing the LFP future pricing guessing game is like trying to play the stock market .. (and we all know how well that has worked for the last 60 days) ...

There will be a point quickly thought hat i start having my stuff shipped via SEA instead of AIR. There is a limited amount of flights to and from China and DHL and FEDEX has already raised their prices twice in the last 60 days ... I see battery prices remaining at market meaning that bascialy adjusted to supply/demand.

Shipping by SEA prices actually has gone done somewhat since there is an absolute glut in oil right now ... so if you need your batteries in 2 weeks pay for AIR but if you can wait 30-45 days then literally a "slow boat from China" is your option ...

BUT actual battery prices up and down is going to be marginal ... OF course the prices that we all pay for the batteries here in the states that we get from China is about 2X what they sell for in China ... SOOO shop around each and every time you purchase batteries .. who knows .. you may get someone that is overstocked and hungry ...
 
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