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Since Trump won, can the vendors here give any informed opinions on what effect his proposed tariffs will have on batteries and inverters?

ArtieKendall

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Title is pretty much it. Articles I've read are all over the map, with tariffs from 10% to over 100% for Chinese imports. But Elon Musk is big into solar and batteries, and has donated millions to Trump, so will that mean an exception for solar?
 
I think your going to pay 30% more.
he made that pretty clear during the election run up.
Tariffs on everything you import.
 
Elon on one hand likes Trump because Tesla is practically the only American company that manufactures lithium ion cells at scale. And domestically.

What he doesn't like about trump, is the first implementation of EV and solar tarrifs failed to "bring back manufacturing". Most companies just shifted to countries that are not China.

Elon also said last night that some countries are better suited for manufacturing certain things. And that is absolutely true. Especially when you secure supply chains for a very specific product.
 
This should end up in chit chat in record time. (y)
Politics and ideology are in everything.

Think about suppositories?
Chocolate Exlax.

The cure is built right into the thing that s made you sick.
And you buy that because it sounds like a good idea lol.
 
Elon on one hand likes Trump because Tesla is practically the only American company that manufactures lithium ion cells at scale. And domestically.

What he doesn't like about trump, is the first implementation of EV and solar tarrifs failed to "bring back manufacturing". Most companies just shifted to countries that are not China.

Elon also said last night that some countries are better suited for manufacturing certain things. And that is absolutely true. Especially when you secure supply chains for a very specific product.
More things that sound like good ideas lol.
 
I apologize for using the wrong forum. I didn't want discussion about whether the policy was good or bad. It's a done deal that Trump won and that he will impose tariffs, so there's no use arguing for or against them, and I didn't want the question lost in a political forum. I was hoping for informed opinions to help me decide whether I should hurry up and upgrade before January. I'm very interested in the new EG412K, but I usually like to wait for six months or so after new units come out to see what the reports from the field say.
 
I'm in the same boat as the OP and wondering the same thing. Was planning on installing my large home system in the next few years, but now thinking of making the purchase before the end of the year. Any predictions on what the next 4 years could look like for solar components availability and pricing? Lessons from past swings?

I would include any changes to tax incentives in this as well. I believe we currently have some of the best federal incentives (ever?). Any chance those could be repealed, I would think so but it might take a year or so to become effective, so maybe ok there for now.

I'm looking at EG4 gear which I believe is manufactured in TX, but all components I don't know? Haven't settled on panels yet but understand a large percent come from China, so same story there. It seems that tariffs rising prices on a large part of the market would rise prices across the board.
 
Yeah they didn't work the first time and I don't think they're going to work the second time. Also China is securing the supply chains globally so I think they're going to just keep dropping the price of these cells until they're readily available for the globe. Even with the 100% tariff it will still be cheaper than buying cells manufactured in America. But we really don't manufacture many of the cells regardless. Small fraction of global capacity.
 
Yeah they didn't work the first time and I don't think they're going to work the second time. Also China is securing the supply chains globally so I think they're going to just keep dropping the price of these cells until they're readily available for the globe. Even with the 100% tariff it will still be cheaper than buying cells manufactured in America. But we really don't manufacture many of the cells regardless. Small fraction of global capacity.
You will never reach him - Canadian liberal
 
I'm 99.9% confident there is 0 manufacturing of their equipment in the USA. It is all relabeled from OEMs in China. Previously generations of AIO's were predominantly Voltronic and some Megarevo, current generations are made by Lux Power.
They are either ignorant or crap stirring. Biden already had Tariffs going or in place.
They seem to think Trump is doing something new.

Biden has slammed us with tariffs for a long time …. On all kinds of stuff. It is a broad govt crapola plan that never works out well The consumer always pays the tariffs. It is pointless

Again Biden doing it already How do so many ppl not know what Biden has been doing but suddenly worry about Trump? Same crap from both of them..
 
Yeah they didn't work the first time and I don't think they're going to work the second time. Also China is securing the supply chains globally so I think they're going to just keep dropping the price of these cells until they're readily available for the globe. Even with the 100% tariff it will still be cheaper than buying cells manufactured in America. But we really don't manufacture many of the cells regardless. Small fraction of global capacity.
It’s going to be difficult
Requiring subsidy and lots of research grants and tax incentives
It come with the risk of creating an industry that is dependent on government for support
To what extent do Chinese companies need government support now?
That’s a question we don’t know and can’t answer

Look at tv sets
Not on is made in the usa
But there are still military flat panel displays made in the USA for security reasons
Even with that level of support it’s still not enough to create an independent manufacturing base for lcd displays

I wonder if any of this can really be made here anymore unless labour drops to Chinese cost levels, environmental standards are removed and huge welfare checks are written to keep those plants running

Show me any industry that ever came back from extinction and did it without huge incentives
The Tesla plant in LA. Was a gm toyota joint venture at one time Gm tried to make cars like toyota

It took a completely different car company with completely different technology and lots of gov incentives, lower wages and working standards than a typical gm plant to get that to make cars again.

Is that even worth it?
Or should the next step be to develop the batteries and new companies for the next generation technology before the Chinese own it
Supply chains to feed this technology too
 
It's a done deal that Trump won and that he will impose tariffs,
I think that remains to be seen, a week is a long time in politics & the prevailing economic conditions in January 2025 will shape any action.
The United States is the world's second-biggest importer. In 2022, the main imports were consumer goods (27 percent), capital goods (26 percent), and industrial supplies (25 percent) followed by automotive vehicles, parts and engines (12 percent), and foods, feeds and beverages (6 percent).
Trump has said that he will put a tariff of 10% on all imported goods & between 60% & 100% on Chinese and between 25% & 75 % on Mexican goods if they don't stop illegal immigration. A global trade war will ensue because, of course, there will be retaliatory tariffs.
Specifically for solar, it might be a good idea to hedge ? Battery prices continue to drop but where is the floor ? One knock on effect is the viability of US solar PV retailers. Are they relying on volume or margin? or a combination ?
 
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Is that even worth it?
Or should the next step be to develop the batteries and new companies for the next generation technology before the Chinese own it
Supply chains to feed this technology too
Capital looks for stability & medium & long term return & given Trumps mercurial nature I can't see any big investment on something that could be reversed in 4 years time. Take a look at the UK to see what happened after Brexit for a possible outcome to this.
 
Again Biden doing it already How do so many ppl not know what Biden has been doing but suddenly worry about Trump? Same crap from both of them..

Tariffs currently account for about 2% of federal revenue. Trump has proposed using tariffs to replace personal income taxes, which means that tariffs would have to supply nearly half of federal revenue. "Both sides do it" is incredibly simplistic.
 
Tariffs currently account for about 2% of federal revenue. Trump has proposed using tariffs to replace personal income taxes, which means that tariffs would have to supply nearly half of federal revenue. "Both sides do it" is incredibly simplistic.


The tariffs usually mean the production work like solar panel manufacturers will move their work here eventually. Q Cell -trump and Heliene -biden(?) are examples moved here. They will usually get foreign sweet heart deals that Normal Americans starting the same business could not get. Even bring in as many employees possible like Engineers from their own country with work visas. Kinda silly how it works. Nuke plants are same with India to here foreign workers driving high tech jobs down in price. I know this for a fact a deceased family member was top line involved in Nuclear Industry electrical and instrument training and had to certify the ppl from India and here per NRC. He travel all over east part of country doing required certifications. Cheap labor.

This is how tariffs played out with cars from japan, korea, germany and so on too. Production moved here but major money did not.
Funny part: Some ppl still say the products were better quality from japan...example: subaru has a model from japan and some of it is basic - same models from USA except usa is 2.5. Thing it was different engine choice so for entire car it was made in Japan - Crosstrek 2.0. SUBARU dealers told me the Japanese versions were preferred even with smaller engine version. Less complaints for build quality - seems USA was making substandard. I passed and bought a Toyota. Some Korean cars are made here now too. Some were are global sourced for parts and assembled here. Various combo. Think it was 2.4 engine in hyundai that was made in USA and engines failed due to metal machine shavings not cleaned out. Poor american workmanship substandard quality. I sold mine before it blew up.

Some toyota are made in mexico. Some toyota USA. Some toyota are made in canada . I think the Prime - Rav4 hybrids with defective motor cables came from Canada. Just going off memory.

Guess who normally pays for the companies to come here? Usually tax payers in USA ... the employees get taxed as basic only income besides sales tax. The new car maker get free land with long lease agreements for factories, no taxes on business, discount utilities, assistance with financing, and free employee training - education at trade school - colleges. Basically we in USA pay for everything so the majority of the money gets sent back to host country. Again the employee is only one taxed besides the vehicle sales tax. If the manufacturer ever leave we will have to clean up their toxic mess.

It works that sweet ass way with most things from tariffs.
Tariffs are a wash. Best give unto caesar what is due caesar.

Biden Tariff 25%-50% on solar panels .... he had lot of tariff on various things. Why wood for building homes was so crazy expensive too. Trump will just be doing the same dumb crap. Right Wing vs Left Wing same stupid taxed - bird in middle - we the ppl.... we kinda deserve what we get.
I use to get mad but laugh about it now. It is a license to steal from us.

Again if we tried to open the same type business as American than we would be denied all the perks given to these foreign countries being lured here. It is really that bad. Why foreigners from India came in bought up most hotels aka "Patels." They use to get 5 years tax free business too. To keep it rolling would sell and skip out to Next new "Patel" owner to get next 5 years - tax free. All legal except for the person skipping out.

One of the chinese big wigs was caught and jailed recently here in USA swindling. There is so much broken can never be fixed

Here.... Biden 25%-50% tariffs on panels. You are now informed. Batteries and other stuff at other sites too. Find it .

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Show me any industry that ever came back from extinction and did it without huge incentives
In all our economies manufacturing jobs as a percentage of total employment have fallen since the 1970s. Those traditional industries now employ a fraction of the workers they did in the 1970s - take a look at, say steel & iron production. The real problem is that wages have fallen in real terms since the 70s & prices, especially housing, have rocketed & not just in the last 4 years. The recent Boeing deal on pay, 38% over 4 years sounds great, but then you look at what they had the last 8 years & predicted inflation for the next 4 & by 2028 they will be worse off than they are now.
The "economy" is booming but most families live hand to mouth with huge debts & no savings. There will be no return to the good ole days.
 
In all our economies manufacturing jobs as a percentage of total employment have fallen since the 1970s. Those traditional industries now employ a fraction of the workers they did in the 1970s - take a look at, say steel & iron production. The real problem is that wages have fallen in real terms since the 70s & prices, especially housing, have rocketed & not just in the last 4 years. The recent Boeing deal on pay, 38% over 4 years sounds great, but then you look at what they had the last 8 years & predicted inflation for the next 4 & by 2028 they will be worse off than they are now.
The "economy" is booming but most families live hand to mouth with huge debts & no savings. There will be no return to the good ole days.
You are right.
I cant argue that point.
I worked in Steel, oil, mining, pulp and paper.

I've watched this happen......

I have a theory::
I'm not an economist but people around here talk about all kinds of crack pot theories from chem-trails to people eating dogs and cats so here is mine.

We have a complicated combination of things happening.

Work is become more specialized and less skilled.
We don't fix so much as replace parts so there is little incentive for employers to train up and pay to retain worker.
( work in general )

We have a productivity problem.
In order to increase wages worker must be more productive and improve constantly.
We don't really increase our productivity the way we used to and where we do become more productive this leads simply to job cuts.

Scarcity doesn't really happen like it used to to drive innovation and products.
The last supply line crunch after the pandemic showed us what things used to be like and this triggered inflation but no real growth in new investment to create substitution or new capacity.

A lack of competition.
Without real fair and normal competition there is no real need to grow or hire companies
Where competition does get heated enough to spur innovation we end up in a round of mergers and acquisitions to cool things down.
Or cheap imports tamper down the heat and cool any inflationary demand driven growth and innovation..

Then we get into Zombie companies that are too big to fail so they get bail outs but they remain like zombies and don't innovate or grow.
They remain stagnant and so do the wage they pay.
But they are too big to fail and they smother start ups with their size.

Money is cheap to borrow from a historical perspective and inflation ( now normalizing ) is low enough to divert investment form riskier growth investments into mergers, stock buy backs and take overs.
This does not innovate or grow.

In this kind of environment inflation is low dangerously low and can cause people to save rather than spend if they think prices may drop.
I'm watching battery and solar prices drop.
I'm holding off spending because I will wait and see if they drop further...
If others do this is will cause a sales slump so manufactures need to slash cost
Without more investment to grow and become more companies stagnate.
Money does not flow into these industries and companies its does not pay unless you intended to slash burn to increase short term profits ( this is the 3G capital method or blackrock way of buying stagnant companies and squeezing them to make more money rather than growing )

The worlds population is not growing in a way that encourages economic growth.
The countries with money are shrinking and aging this does not drive consumer and investment growth.
Where you do have population growth they are not consumers with cash.

Capitalism works well when you have healthy competition.
Demand and growth and you are feeding a young dynamic growing population.
These things cause feedback loops that stir innovation, consumerism and real wage and standard of living growth.
This does not seem to happen anymore.

Worse there are other forces that suck money out of the system and concentrate wealth.
The dead money pools up in tax havens.
To prevent the flight of cash we cut capital gains and other taxes on profits and windfalls.
This diverts money from productive investments in new technology training or machinery. ( places where you used to get more back in tax incentives than you do now )

Well these are what I think are causing the stagnation in our economy.
And I don't see an out.
I saw this happen first in Japan and I have not see them really recover

What you do see is a lot of really rich people who are scared of spending their money on things that are risky rather than easy.
Stocks, property leveraged buyouts these are the safest ways to grow your money ( or pension ) but they do not create growth where there is not demand for it...

Random thoughts but I think some of this holds water.

Other will look for simpler reasons.
taxes are too high cheap foreign labour ect...
I think its just because we are no longer young dynamic and trying new things.
The flip side of that is also scary if we were to spur growth by growing at what point do we bump up against the limits of our society to continue to grow.
Is thats whats happening????
Is it too expensive to grow???
Do we want to grow forever and can we????
Cancer grows for ever and thats not a good thing, thats unregulated growth untill it kills you
 
We have a complicated combination of things happening.
Yep, in a nutshell. Lots of great point made that deserve a thoughtful answer but food is about to be served here so ill get back to you tomorrow.
 
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Yep, in a nutshell. Lots of great point made that deserve a thoughtful answer but food is about to be served here so ill get back to you tomorrow.
When ever you post a reply to me about economics I am reminded of a song by a little Canadian band about the king of Spain, laissez faire economics.

 

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