Texas Power Failure

[Luthj]

I'm having trouble reconciling these two statements.

Sorry, editing mistake.

 

[Luthj]

Part of the issue with the grid in general, is that it is undergoing a paradigm shift which hasn't happened in close to 80 years. I am not saying government intervention is 100% required. Smart regulation, and letting the private utilities innovate to meet it may work. However a significant investment in grid reliability with a focus on renewable and local generation may be on the table.

Up until recently, building 200-800MW power plants fairly close to consumers, with modest to low interconnection capability to neighboring major grid areas worked fine. Renewables tend to be a more localized, with great solar generation areas (low land costs, and clear skies) often being quite a distance. Wind is also limited geographically for obvious reasons.

Combine this with the increasing amount of grid storage slated for construction, means some changes are in order. Better long distance transmission capability for one. Distributed storage to reduce peak demand on high tension lines, etc.


As far as EV usage goes, we can estimate the additional electricity consumption. Typically Americans drive 26 miles per day. An efficient EV will get about 2-2.5 miles per kwhr. So 26/2= 13kw-hr per day. Most of which can be consumed at night when power demand is lower than during peak times.

The average American uses about 30kwhr per day. About 30-50% of which is during peak hours. So the total increase would be around 40% in energy. However peak power may only increase nominally. With solar PV, its possible to use excess generation to charge EVs.

The idea result would be EV batteries which have more than enough cycle life for the vehicles lifespan. So they can be used as grid tied storage. Charge during peak PV during the day, and discharge 10-20% of capacity when needed for peaking. Distributing peaking loads around helps.

 

[ArthurEld]

Part of the issue with the grid in general, is that it is undergoing a paradigm shift which hasn't happened in close to 80 years. I am not saying government intervention is 100% required. Smart regulation, and letting the private utilities innovate to meet it may work. However a significant investment in grid reliability with a focus on renewable and local generation may be on the table.

Up until recently, building 200-800MW power plants fairly close to consumers, with modest to low interconnection capability to neighboring major grid areas worked fine. Renewables tend to be a more localized, with great solar generation areas (low land costs, and clear skies) often being quite a distance. Wind is also limited geographically for obvious reasons.

Combine this with the increasing amount of grid storage slated for construction, means some changes are in order. Better long distance transmission capability for one. Distributed storage to reduce peak demand on high tension lines, etc.


As far as EV usage goes, we can estimate the additional electricity consumption. Typically Americans drive 26 miles per day. An efficient EV will get about 2-2.5 miles per kwhr. So 26/2= 13kw-hr per day. Most of which can be consumed at night when power demand is lower than during peak times.

The average American uses about 30kwhr per day. About 30-50% of which is during peak hours. So the total increase would be around 40% in energy. However peak power may only increase nominally. With solar PV, its possible to use excess generation to charge EVs.

The idea result would be EV batteries which have more than enough cycle life for the vehicles lifespan. So they can be used as grid tied storage. Charge during peak PV during the day, and discharge 10-20% of capacity when needed for peaking. Distributing peaking loads around helps.

It seems likely that some kind of distributed power is in our future. PV is becoming so cheap and the electric companies already install it for free if you can't afford to.

 

[45North]

Perhaps rather than censorship, the government could take a page from the FDA labeling guidelines:

• You can't have "News" in the show's title unless you're over 90% accurate and balanced
• A show less than 90% but greater that 70% will be call Commentary
• A show less than 70% shall have the label Conspiracy theories in the title.

We could do the same with politicians:

• A politician that is > 90% accurate will be known as the Right Honorable.
• A politician that is 70 to 90% shall be known as the Right Trickster
• A politician that is 40 to 70% shall known as the Right Lying Bastard
• A politician that is less than 40% shall be automatically removed from office.

Wouldn't work though, imagine how much it would cost for all those recalls?

Yes, but who decides what's "accurate". When things become highly politicized it becomes more a matter of who's side are you on rather than what's true.
My "facts" might be your "fake news"

 

[Luthj]

It seems likely that some kind of distributed power is in our future. PV is becoming so cheap and the electric companies already install it for free if you can't afford to.

Indeed. The big question is if its going to be home scale, or neighborhood scale. Though chemical flow batteries may make utility scale practical. We are on a cusp of a grid storage revolution I believe. The low per kwhr cost of renewables combined with feasible storage will make fossil fuel peaker plants much less profitable, which will accelerate existing trends.

 

[svetz]

I looked at some studies of Gen-Zs susceptibility to fake news, they're all over the place. But the one heartening thing I saw was 9 in 10 had seen fake news, so some 90% at least know you can't always trust what you hear.

Here's a Gen-Zer's thoughts on finding the truth...

Part of the issue with the grid in general, is that it is undergoing a paradigm shift which hasn't happened in close to 80 years.

It does needs careful planning, less the country at large suffer issues like California (although California seems more due to mismanagement and lawsuits). I'm not crazy about the current piecemeal strategy, ideally there should be some regionalized (interstate) planning/agreement front and center for any modernization/expansion.

The idea result would be EV batteries which have more than enough cycle life for the vehicles lifespan. So they can be used as grid tied storage. Charge during peak PV during the day, and discharge 10-20% of capacity when needed for peaking.

The big downside is people drive their cars to work and they don't sit on chargers then when solar can resupply them. Then, worse, they drive their depleted EVs home arriving at 6 and plug into the grid to recharge thus increasing the high demand problem. To fix that, they need to be able to charge during the day, they need to arrive home at 4, then discharge to the grid and have enough power to make it back to work the next day. Not saying it can't work, but the model doesn't fit the current average work model and most people like a fuel reserve.

Yes, but who decides what's "accurate"....My "facts" might be your "fake news"...

See post #35 for one idea.

 

[Luthj]

It does needs careful planning,

This is one of those areas where federalism fails. Coordinated effort by the federal government would be the most effective, but its not likely to happen with one major party having an ideological opposition to renewables in general. Which does seem pretty silly given the compelling economic arguments.

Something similar to the interstate highway system comes to mind.

 

[John Frum]

To fix that, they need to be able to charge during the day, they need to arrive home at 4, then discharge to the grid and have enough power to make it back to work the next day. Not saying it can't work, but the model doesn't fit the current average work model and most people like a fuel reserve.

I don't drive 26 miles a week since the vid hit.
For lots of folks the only reason to go back to the office is fear of being out of the gossip loop when the others return.
Not entirely accurate but I'm sure you take my meaning.

 

[Hedges]

News and activism delivers what captures eyeballs and ears.
Of course much "news" is advertisement, intended to acquire money and power.

When I've seen reports of how certain demographic groups are disproportionately affected by COVID (rates of juvenile infection and death for certain races, for instance), I looked up demographics of nation as a whole and discovered it was almost exactly in proportion. But true statistics wouldn't sell newspapers.

Same goes for usage of lethal force by police against various demographic groups. Turns out the groups more/less likely to experience that while being apprehended are the reverse of what activists and [particular political persuasion] media has been saying. Some of the actual statistical figures for law enforcement and crime regarding race are well known and far beyond margin for error, like greater than an order of magnitude difference.

Global warming and sea-level rise, it seems Arctic ice is melting and Antarctic ice is freezing (but not at sufficient rate to make up for what is melting.) One should at least be a WAG and ask if man made CO2 release and global warming is the cause for increasing Antarctic ice. As for possible sea-level rise, while I have always doubted that the Great Flood actually covered mountain tops, my rough calculations say there is enough ice to make possible the rise predicted for coming centuries.

 

[45North]

Indeed. The big question is if its going to be home scale, or neighborhood scale. Though chemical flow batteries may make utility scale practical. We are on a cusp of a grid storage revolution I believe. The low per kwhr cost of renewables combined with feasible storage will make fossil fuel peaker plants much less profitable, which will accelerate existing trends.

Yes, and the mix is going to depend where in the world you live too.
Around here we've had so much hydro-electric power from falls and dams (eg Niagara Falls and James Bay) for so long that the hydro-electric utility is now just called "Hydro".
When I pay my Hydro bill, that's different from my water bill.
Which sounds odd if you don't know the history.

 

[Hedges]

The big downside is people drive their cars to work and they don't sit on chargers then when solar can resupply them. Then, worse, they drive their depleted EVs home arriving at 6 and plug into the grid to recharge thus increasing the high demand problem. To fix that, they need to be able to charge during the day, they need to arrive home at 4, then discharge to the grid and have enough power to make it back to work the next day. Not saying it can't work, but the model doesn't fit the current average work model and most people like a fuel reserve.

Plugged into a 120V 15A outlet while at work and while at home would cover quite a bit.
Communication (e.g. pagers receiving broadcast of requested charge discharge rates or statistical probability to enable full rate charge/discharge) could control them.
Time of use rates and timers should shift evening charging to night time.

Other loads (thermostats) could similarly be controlled to shave peaks and fill valleys.
Thermal storage would be effective too, but more bulky equipment to be installed.

 

[Luthj]

It won't be long until the perks of employment include a parking spot with a modest charger. Possibly with company covered electricity.

 

[svetz]

For lots of folks the only reason to go back to the office is fear of being out of the gossip loop when the others return.

<sigh> Don't they know about social media? But yeah, if everyone followed your model an EV with V2G then it could work with thoughtful and careful planning (not like the CPUC planning ;-).

...But true statistics wouldn't sell newspapers....

That's why we need to relabel them as entertainment. ;-)

 

[Woody]

Seems like there’s two threads going here. 1) Power grid talk and 2) The media.

Would be nice to have the media discussion/comments put on its own thread. I’d like to hear more how other areas are address their power supply needs.

Here in Nevada the in state power generators that were coal fired have been reconfigured for natural gas. Since the continental plate is fractured below us and the magma a bit closer to the surface, we have geothermal co-generation power plants using the Earth’s heat. In the last decade we’re getting more solar power pants. Initially the sodium plants were more proof of concept / evaluation of their capabilities. These must be working well because there are plans to build 6 more of them. As for hydroelectric, seen that big dam outside Las Vegas....oh yeah big hydroelectric. Lastly photovoltaics were popping up all over when the Federal and State was paying or providing tax credits. Funny how the number of photovoltaic systems dropped as they cut back the money/credit. However, Nevada Energy has been and is continuing to install photovoltaic power generating fields around the state. Unfortunately our politicians keep helping. Senator Reid tried cramming a massive PV System in several years ago. Didn’t happen because environmentalists sued. Seems they didn’t want thousands of acres of the desert habitat destroyed for green energy. Lastly Nevada is following the California model. Mandatory percentage of power from ”green” sources and close down fossil fuel fired plants irregardless of actual power needs. For California, they buy power from Nevada (western grid in general) to cover their shortfall. When that happens, our power company sends out the command to all those free smart heating/AC meters that they put into customers homes/businesses to reduce their use. Then air time ads asking/begging for their users to cut back on electrical use. So Nevadans will soon see sizable power bill increases and rolling brown/blackouts just like California because of this approach.

For Nevada, we have a good mix of power sources. Sure could use more solar but where it makes sense. Like on roofs, parking lots, etc. but covering the desert with panels isn’t a good idea. Other than two regions (Las Vegas and Reno has 90% of our population) balance of citizens live rural. So very long power line runs to get power to those living rurally. EV powered cars are marginal for those living on the fringes of those two areas. Nevadans in those frontier countries drive typically over 100 miles one way to go shopping and 200 plus miles for medical. EV cars are not viable even with Tesla EV charging stations spread about. A one size fits all approach doesn’t work.

So what’s powering your region?

 

[dmholmes]

Government and/or ERCOT declared, "The free market isn't working! Price shall be set to $9/kWh!"
That is what bankrupt companies and saddled consumers with $10,000 electric bills for one week.

Why weren't there rolling blackouts? Why were some neighborhoods turned off for several days straight? Whether in cold or hot weather, rolling blackouts would give all consumers power part of the day.

Apparently Centerpoint did the blackouts in a manual, erroneous fashion. Indeed we would have preferred some power daily compared to the way it was done.

 

[dmholmes]

Part of it is they elected not to roll blackouts to portions of the grid with hospitals. Residents on those portions of the grid enjoyed no significant interruptions.

Correct, including hotels close enough to the Texas Medical Center.

They also have a separate water system so didn’t have to boil water when the city was under boil notice.

 

[Hedges]

It won't be long until the perks of employment include a parking spot with a modest charger. Possibly with company covered electricity.

That's how it is today.

Prior employer had free vehicle charging (would tempt me to do V2H)

Current employer has charging, charging spot parking rate $1/hour for 4 hours, $5/hour after that to encourage freeing up the charger for someone else.
The $1 figure works out to approximately $0.15/kWh so break even with home EV rates; in my case it would mean don't bother with their charger but works for people with round trip in excess of range.

 

[ArthurEld]

Here's a Gen-Zer's thoughts on finding the truth...

That young lady had some good points and ideas

 

[Hedges]

Lastly photovoltaics were popping up all over when the Federal and State was paying or providing tax credits. Funny how the number of photovoltaic systems dropped as they cut back the money/credit.

If PV was only installed by consumers with both a need for power and capital/credit available, it would be different.

There was a boom up until 2008 because businesses paid excessive daytime rates and investors could leverage financing to offer rooftop PV power contracts at a fraction of utility rates. When financial world locked up the bottom dropped out of PV market leaving excess capacity for a time.

Tax credits lure people with cash to invest and large tax bills the credits can offset.

Carbon credits can be worth more than the residential power produced, so there has been an army of people going door-to-door offering rooftop power contracts, even for consumers with electric bills under $20/month.

Similarly incentives altered the market for corn ethanol and palm oil.

Costs to protect oil shipments being born by government not industry influence how much is imported, consumption, cost-effectiveness of alternatives.

PV (grid-tie) has become quite cheap compared to retail rates, would get even more market penetration without any incentives, if net metering available. So terms and costs are changing. PV is cheap compared to other utility scale sources so is being built (but of course only works within limits.)

Battery storage is becoming competitive with retail time of use rates, so rules are in place to limit it (at least when it backfeeds). What we don't have is consumer scale storage with the capacity to provide winter power from summer sun. Possibly some chemical or thermal storage solutions will fit (since ice houses worked in past times). Utility scale hydro storage could also (if you can afford the inefficiency.)

 

[svetz]

Seems like there’s two threads going here. 1) Power grid talk and 2) The media.

The OP started off by the fake news that the Texas power crisis was caused by solar and wind freezing... I know... but that's why both are fair game.

I’d like to hear more how other areas are address their power supply needs.

That would be pretty cool! Definitely worthy of it's own thread.

... cramming a massive PV System in several years ago. Didn’t happen because environmentalists sued.

Environmentalists sued over PV? Okay... hang on... got to look this up...

Mr. Emmerich worries about the massive project’s “visual impacts” because it would be located near Valley of Fire State Park. He’s also concerned about desert tortoises in the area. The developer estimates that 300 desert tortoises would be moved while the solar plant is being built. ... To further stall the project, Basin and Range Watch and another environmental group, Western Watersheds Project, are working to put an area plant — the three-corner milkvetch — on the endangered species list.​

I'd have thought the turtles would like the additional shade. So, will the three-corner milkvetch do better or worse without the solar power which could eliminate megatons of CO2 per year? Hmmm. Wait, do the turtles by chance eat that plant? Sounds more like blatant obstructionism than environmentalism... but I'm probably biased.

Lastly Nevada is following the California model...So Nevadans will soon see sizable power bill increases and rolling brown/blackouts just like California because of this approach.

Wow! ....

That young lady had some good points and ideas

She sure did, makes me feel good about my replacements.

 

[Woody]

If PV was only installed by consumers with both a need for power and capital/credit available, it would be different.

There was a boom up until 2008 because businesses paid excessive daytime rates and investors could leverage financing to offer rooftop PV power contracts at a fraction of utility rates. When financial world locked up the bottom dropped out of PV market leaving excess capacity for a time.

Tax credits lure people with cash to invest and large tax bills the credits can offset.

Carbon credits can be worth more than the residential power produced, so there has been an army of people going door-to-door offering rooftop power contracts, even for consumers with electric bills under $20/month.

Similarly incentives altered the market for corn ethanol and palm oil.

Costs to protect oil shipments being born by government not industry influence how much is imported, consumption, cost-effectiveness of alternatives.

PV (grid-tie) has become quite cheap compared to retail rates, would get even more market penetration without any incentives, if net metering available. So terms and costs are changing. PV is cheap compared to other utility scale sources so is being built (but of course only works within limits.)

Battery storage is becoming competitive with retail time of use rates, so rules are in place to limit it (at least when it backfeeds). What we don't have is consumer scale storage with the capacity to provide winter power from summer sun. Possibly some chemical or thermal storage solutions will fit (since ice houses worked in past times). Utility scale hydro storage could also (if you can afford the inefficiency.)

You‘re spot on regarding incentives. We used to have multiple weekly ads promoting home solar. Just sign up now! Pay $30k-50k upfront and keep the incentives or sign contract and lease your roof system to them. They keep the incentives and you get a power system. There were people outside stores hawking the amazing solar systems. Just sign the contact! I laughed at these modern day snake oil salesmen. Simply read the contract and run the numbers and you’d see they were all about the money (Overpriced system, installation costs, financed debt,...). So the hawkers’ tale sound great. Online reviews stating how great this is.... but does it pen out? Unfortunately our schools for the most part are not teaching students how to analyze things or think independently.

Lastly you referenced use, distribution, and storage. Solar and wind are really useless with out storage. Energy storage is then next area of alternative energy that must be solved to make these energy sources viable for mass use. Grid tied systems really only provides a pathway for electricity to go to if needed. If not needed, you have idle systems that costs allot, consumed rare earth material,... and is doing nothing. In addition, lots of system grid issues as power ebbs and flows in the lines as PV / wind tied systems provide or not provide power. That’s the need for Smart Grid systems. We’re not there yet. Regional power generation is very helpful to meet local power needs but the NIMBs (Not In My Backyard) folks stop or greatly hinder this implementation.

I hope they put more resources into storage and distribution but those ares don’t make good photo shots for politicians unlike a field of PV or wind systems.

 

[Hedges]

My retail electric bills are in the $0.15 to $0.45/kWh range, so with DIY PV costing me $0.025/kWh for inverter + panels (maybe $0.05 all in), I choose use-it-or-lose-it electric generation over storage. My AC runs directly from PV --> AC, with surplus production curtailed.

A cooling system that builds ice would use H2O as an energy storage medium. (I haven't modified the existing one; nothing cheaper than silicon.)
I would like a similarly cheap phase-change system for domestic heating.

"Smart grid" only requires a $2 pager. That integrated with thermostat, car charger, refrigerator, water heater, etc. would do wonders for grid stability and making use of surplus. Perhaps each unit integrated in a particular device could be tied to a better utility rate for a certain number of kWh/month.

Our schools manage their own expenses by not installing fire sprinklers due to cost (quoted as $40 per square foot). Even when rebuilding after the school burned down, not done and not required. In California, we spend on average $8000 per student, $240,000 per year per classroom of 30 students. There is a shortage of teachers, pay is too little to live on.

Best most of us can do is manage our own lives.

 

[45North]

My retail electric bills are in the $0.15 to $0.45/kWh range, so with DIY PV costing me $0.025/kWh for inverter + panels (maybe $0.05 all in), I choose use-it-or-lose-it electric generation over storage. My AC runs directly from PV --> AC, with surplus production curtailed.

Just curious: I'm not saying you're wrong - just wondering
how did you calculate a $/kWh for your PV system?
Seems to me you had a one-time capital cost when you initially bought your kit so ever afterwards for every hour that you used it your cost per hour would be Reduced, no?

 

[svetz]

There's something wrong with that project... The Gemini solar project comprises 690MW of solar PV installations as well as a 380MW battery energy storage facility. The solar panels would sit on 7,100 acres.​ ​ A 335 W panel is about 22 sqft, worst case would be laid flat and half the space is left open so one doesn't shade the other and vehicles can get through. An acre is 43,560 sqft, so 7100 acres x 43560 sqft/acre / 22 sqft/panel / 2 sqft needed per sqft panel = 70,290,000 panels, or at 335 W panels, or 23.5 TW. Going the other way, 690MW / 315 W * 22 *2 /43560 = 2213 acres.

 

[Hedges]

Just curious: I'm not saying you're wrong - just wondering
how did you calculate a $/kWh for your PV system?
Seems to me you had a one-time capital cost when you initially bought your kit so ever afterwards for every hour that you used it your cost per hour would be Reduced, no?

I calculated peak kW AC produced and average effective sun hours from an insolation calculator.
One-time capital cost (at today's prices) is $0.50/W for inverter and PV panels, $1/W including ground mounts, wiring, etc.
Amortized over 10 years it comes out to $0.05/kWh (if I remember correctly.)
Might have to replace an inverter at that point, and amortized over 20 years that brings it to $0.03 (rather than $0.025) per kWh.
Beyond 10 years time value of money increasingly important, so maybe $0.05/kWh first decade, $0.01/kWh second decade.
If you can keep system cost closer to $0.50/W than $1/W, that's a lot of savings.

My original install was more expensive and 17 years ago, so I amortize over that period and come up with about $0.20/kWh.
Since then I've bought more for upgrades and battery backup.

One can do more complicated math involving cost of capital, but with cash in the bank earning between 0.01% and 2% today, I leave interest rates out of the equation and just divide by operating time, cycles, kWh over a decade.

For batteries, I amortize over cycle life.
My AGM would cost $0.50/kWh if cycled enough to wear out. More expensive as I use them, which is standby waiting for a grid failure.
I apply similar math to Lithium. Commercial lithium batteries used to cost just as much per kWh as my AGM, higher capital cost for more cycles.
Today DIY lithium looks like it can be 1/2 the capital cost of AGM and several times the cycle life.