The end of net metering

[philatio]

I wasn't sure where to post this so general discussion it is.

I posted in another thread on the subject of unfavorable changes to net metering with my provider. A coop that I have no option to escape from.

I am grandfathered until Feb 2028 on the current 1 to 1 net metering per billing cycle so I have just under 5 years to come up with a solution, assuming it is even a problem. I believe it is. See the link above to the post where I went into detail.

I am thinking that taking my solar system off the grid t0 avoid the $15 distributed generation fee and pultry buy back by my provided and only purchasing electricity from them when needed because solar & battery is not enough, is the way forward to making things more cost better for me. I was not really a candidate for solor from an ROI perspective, but that was not my sole reason for going solar.
1) I have very young grand children I want to do my part to leave a better world to.
2) I have been doing the opposite of number 1 for my almost 60 years on this planet

I do have at present a small grid interactive battery back up system and believe expanding on this would be the way forward. I am always open to suggestions, questions, and thoughts (constructive only please). With inverter tech changing as rapidly as it is these days, perhaps my solution does not exist quite yet.

My current system & basic data. My 1600 sq/ft house is completely electric.

28 x REC 370w Alpha Black Panels with
28 x Tigo TS4-A-O optimizers, grid tied to
1 x SMA Sunny Boy SB7.7-1SP-US-4.

The separate grid interactive system is.
6 x EG4-LL 48v 100AH batteries hooked up to
1 x MPP Solar LVX6048 connected to
1 x Eaton CH10gen5050sn switched neutral critical loads panel.

Batteries are charged via AC in only. No PV hooked up yet as my roof is full and I don't want to void my warranty by pulling one string off the Sunny Boy to feed the LVX6048. This separate system is my setup to experiment with battery backup and learn for the day that net metering changes unfavorably. That day arrives in 5 years.

My absolute peak electricity usage was 18kw at a time when all high draw loads were running concurrently along with regular loads: Dryer, Oven, Emergency Heat (resistive coils 10kw). I have a heat pump which draws around 2kw heating or cooling. I might use emergency heat once or twice a years (Dallas Texas).

My base load is between 850 to 1000 watts.

Here is some monthly usage data from 11-2021 through 04-2023:

Consumption​	Generation​	Net​
516​	609​	-93​
625​	623​	2​
769​	735​	34​
731​	838​	-107​
689​	795​	-106​
606​	1068​	-462​
609​	857​	-248​
613​	860​	-247​
488​	522​	-34​
553​	446​	107​
600​	614​	-14​
690​	760​	-70​
734​	549​	185​
686​	495​	191​
846​	777​	69​
899​	590​	309​
545​	735​	-190​
595​	833​	-238​

Any insights, suggestion, questions are greatly appreciated.

Thanks in advance.

 

[AntronX]

$9000 you spent on batteries would buy you 50 years of that $15 grid fee. Batteries only make sense if your peak demand rate - solar buyback rate is greater than battery cost per cycle. With LFP battery it's roughly $292/kWh / 4800 cycles = 6.1 cents / kWh but assuming they do last 20 years / 6000 cycles as advertised which is a big if. More reasonable assumption would be to assume half the cycle life or 10 years / 3650 partial 80% DOD cycles and 80% degradation = 3650 * 0.8 * 0.9 = 2628 normalized cycles = $0.11 per kWh cycled. So if the difference between what your power company pays you for excess solar and what you pay to buy it back during on peak is > 11 cents per kWh then go with battery.

 

[Mattb4]

With 5 years to go on your 1-1 grid tie agreement my advice is to wait at least 4 years before making any major modifications. Who knows by then if a major change, like for say better batteries, in components is not available.

However if you are eager to dabble more in being electrical self sufficient it sounds like you have a huge start already with the present MPP AIO and 6-48v 100ah batteries.

 

[Hedges]

If credits for backfeed are less than $15, then taking it off-grid might make sense.
However, a system able to power load may cost more than that.
Can you backfeed without the $15 fee, just get zero credit?
Can you implement a zero backfeed system, which is grid interactive and blends PV with grid power?

Battery system can be worthwhile if you want to pay for backup.
Sunny Island works with Sunny Boy but may not be a zero-export system. Might accomplish that with separate meter using CT at utility connection and commanding SB to curtail; SI won't know anything about it. SI uses 48V batteries.

SMA markets Sunny Boy Storage for such systems (still has external meter and communications, I think.)
$2500 SBS + $2500 ABU + expensive battery. I think the high voltage batteries are twice the price of server rack batteries.
SBS has limited surge capability, poorer than SI.

With 5 years to go on your 1-1 grid tie agreement my advice is to wait at least 4 years before making any major modifications. Who knows by then if a major change, like for say better batteries, in components is not available.

Unless there are subsidies.
Depending on income, well pump, medical, etc. there are subsidies as high as $1000/kWh for CEC listed ESS. That should buy and install SBS with BYD LiFePO4 batteries (10kWh to 30 kWh)


SBS is 6kW, 9kW surge, only one unit no parallel. SI is 5.75kW, 11kW surge each, up to 4x connected parallel/series
SI is no longer on CEC list. Maybe new European model will come here and be listed.

 

[philatio]

With 5 years to go on your 1-1 grid tie agreement my advice is to wait at least 4 years before making any major modifications. Who knows by then if a major change, like for say better batteries, in components is not available.

However if you are eager to dabble more in being electrical self sufficient it sounds like you have a huge start already with the present MPP AIO and 6-48v 100ah batteries.

Thanks for the feedback @Mattb4 .

This is the route I am taking. My thoughts are the same as far as where the tech maybe in 4 years.

I just don't want to wait until the last minute to develop a plan.

My lack of knowledge, although increasing greatly from what I knew 2 years ago, has prompted me to reach out to community.

I can't know everything and my ideas will be biased based on my experiences.

Thanks again.

 

[timselectric]

Grid-tied is for suckers. Or grid connected in any way, for that matter. Get out while you can.
Otherwise, you will be left carrying the grid alone.

Disclaimer: this is just my opinion.

 

[philatio]

If credits for backfeed are less than $15, then taking it off-grid might make sense.
However, a system able to power load may cost more than that.
Can you backfeed without the $15 fee, just get zero credit?
Can you implement a zero backfeed system, which is grid interactive and blends PV with grid power?

Battery system can be worthwhile if you want to pay for backup.
Sunny Island works with Sunny Boy but may not be a zero-export system. Might accomplish that with separate meter using CT at utility connection and commanding SB to curtail; SI won't know anything about it. SI uses 48V batteries.

SMA markets Sunny Boy Storage for such systems (still has external meter and communications, I think.)
$2500 SBS + $2500 ABU + expensive battery. I think the high voltage batteries are twice the price of server rack batteries.
SBS has limited surge capability, poorer than SI.



Unless there are subsidies.
Depending on income, well pump, medical, etc. there are subsidies as high as $1000/kWh for CEC listed ESS. That should buy and install SBS with BYD LiFePO4 batteries (10kWh to 30 kWh)


SBS is 6kW, 9kW surge, only one unit no parallel. SI is 5.75kW, 11kW surge each, up to 4x connected parallel/series
SI is no longer on CEC list. Maybe new European model will come here and be listed.

@Hedges As always, a thorough response.

SMA is coming out with new hybrid inverters this year. I trust the brand. I'll be interested in seeing how they do.

 

[philatio]

Grid-tied is for suckers. Or grid connected in any way, for that matter. Get out while you can.
Otherwise, you will be left carrying the grid alone.

Disclaimer: this is just my opinion.

I don't know that I would use your terminology, but that is the purpose of my post and request for feedback.
To get out while I can, if I can.

 

[Checkthisout]

Grid-tied is for suckers. Or grid connected in any way, for that matter. Get out while you can.
Otherwise, you will be left carrying the grid alone.

Disclaimer: this is just my opinion.

Ha ha. You still need the grid to get parts for your system.

 

[Ampster]

I am thinking that taking my solar system off the grid t0 avoid the $15 distributed generation fee and pultry buy back by my provided and only purchasing electricity from them when needed because solar & battery is not enough, is the way forward to making things more cost better for me.

Since you are in California I assume there is a building and safety code that would prevent you from totally disconnecting from the grid. That is my dilemma especially since I cannot generate as much as I use in winter. I have to use the grid as long term battery storage and pay back my net winter consumption with summer production.
I have until 2040 Until my NEM 2.0 expires but in 2025 or possibly sooner, I will be facing a large fixed fee as a result of AB 205. That is my conundrum and will read the other comments to see how others are dealing with that.

 

[time2roll]

I see nothing wrong with having an off grid system powered by battery and solar. Only grid connection could be to charge the battery.
I agree with not changing anything until the new rules are in place after the current agreement expires. Gives 5 years of planning.
Worst case is subject to the new rules for 6 - 12 months. Lots of talk.... I would want to see the effect on my actual bill.

Conservation and simply using less would be my primary effort during the 5 years.

 

[philatio]

Since you are in California I assume there is a building and safety code that would prevent you from totally disconnecting from the grid. That is my dilemma especially since I cannot generate as much as I use in winter. I have to use the grid as long term battery storage and pay back my net winter consumption with summer production.
I have until 2040 Until my NEM 2.0 expires but in 2025 or possibly sooner, I will be facing a large fixed fee as a result of AB 205. That is my conundrum and will read the other comments to see how others are dealing with that.

I am not in California. I am in Texas.

The county I am in didn't even require a permit.

 

[Ampster]

I am not in California. I am in Texas.

The county I am in didn't even require a permit.

Sorry, then you don't have the same worries as me. Plus you have cheap rates, which is a double edged sword because of the low rate of compensation for production.

 

[Hedges]

@Hedges As always, a thorough response.

SMA is coming out with new hybrid inverters this year. I trust the brand. I'll be interested in seeing how they do.

I'm assuming it will be a split-phase version of the 3-phase European inverters. Check those for features.
No AC coupling. Provides backup to downstream loads panel. I forget or don't know if it works with CT for zero/limited export.
High voltage battery.

Grid-tied is for suckers. Or grid connected in any way, for that matter. Get out while you can.
Otherwise, you will be left carrying the grid alone.

Disclaimer: this is just my opinion.

The risk for us is if a "departing customer" fee gets imposed for the last to abandon ship.

I would like to keep grid connection as a reliable and economical power source maintained by someone else. The highest rates I presently have are half the cost of ICE generator and zero effort.

Conservation and simply using less would be my primary effort during the 5 years.

I think controlling loads to use power as it is produced will be worthwhile for the future. And to shift away from peak rates for the time being.

but in 2025 or possibly sooner, I will be facing a large fixed fee as a result of AB 205.

Ellison Schneider Harris & Donlan LLP :: What the Passage of AB 205 Means for California

I don't see it in this text, but does that impose a larger monthly fee on all users and reduce per kWh fee?

That would make multiple units sharing one meter an attractive option over separate meters. Some properties have a choice. Could a city block of like-minded citizens disconnect all but one home from the grid and run a wire along the back fence (with private metering)?

 

[Ampster]

Could a city block of like-minded citizens disconnect all but one home from the grid and run a wire along the back fence (with private metering)?

Years ago a local marina tried private metering and found out the SCE had some rule that prevented that. That was years ago but I doubt that the rule or statute has not changed.

 

[philatio]

I see nothing wrong with having an off grid system powered by battery and solar. Only grid connection could be to charge the battery.
I agree with not changing anything until the new rules are in place after the current agreement expires. Gives 5 years of planning.
Worst case is subject to the new rules for 6 - 12 months. Lots of talk.... I would want to see the effect on my actual bill.

Conservation and simply using less would be my primary effort during the 5 years.

I am model my 22 month worth of 1 to 1 net metering data to see what the cost changes would and am collecting data going forward. So far it's not pretty.

Here is the cost percentage increases when I model what I actually paid vs what the bill would have been. Only accurate buy back price is March & April of 2023. The others are the average of the two known values.

Bill Under New Rules​	Actuallly Paid​	Difference​	% Increase​
$48.34​	$21.00​	$27.34​	130.19%​
$64.99​	$22.00​	$42.99​	195.40%​
$75.52​	$26.00​	$49.52​	190.46%​
$65.19​	$21.00​	$44.19​	210.41%​
$62.59​	$21.00​	$41.59​	198.04%​
$37.33​	$21.00​	$16.33​	77.78%​
$49.55​	$21.00​	$28.55​	135.96%​
$65.19​	$21.00​	$44.19​	210.41%​
$63.69​	$21.00​	$42.69​	203.29%​
$77.02​	$37.00​	$40.03​	108.20%​
$75.33​	$21.00​	$54.33​	258.74%​
$75.03​	$21.00​	$54.03​	257.26%​
$86.93​	$46.00​	$40.93​	88.97%​
$92.81​	$49.00​	$43.81​	89.41%​
$90.82​	$36.00​	$54.82​	152.28%​
$105.45​	$67.00​	$38.45​	57.39%​
$58.66​	$25.00​	$33.66​	134.64%​
$40.08​	$25.00​	$15.08​	60.31%​

 

[timselectric]

Ha ha. You still need the grid to get parts for your system.

Yes
But someone else can pay for it.

 

[time2roll]

I am model my 22 month worth of 1 to 1 net metering data to see what the cost changes would and am collecting data going forward. So far it's not pretty.

Here is the cost percentage increases when I model what I actually paid vs what the bill would have been.

​

Yes and as the agreement expires and the increases are confirmed on the actual bill will be the time to move quickly on the planned system.

 

[2Kayaker!]

I am looking forward to many more EV’s effecting the power grid. The combined increase in mass storage (most 100kvh ev’s are parked at home 95% of the day or parked at work place) will soon be available with V2Home and vehicle to grid (v2g) capability. Peaked plant power currently expensive for power companies to buy in order to balance their grid load will be cheaper for the utility to acquire via an EV owner agreement and the AI coordinating small EV draws from thousands of plugged in EV’s. The paradigms and payback possibilities will make solar generation and EV ‘s pay for themselves much quicker. Europe has proved this operation in test communities and for example, Nissan has confirmed the v2g program did not harm their car’s battery and their warranty remained intact. We have a Leaf- so there’s already the home side equipment available, it’s the power companies that have to catch up to accept and utilize the V2G concept , bi directional dc charging for EV’s might be the thing to plan for as well as an SCC that has V2G ability and approval.

 

[SamDeleted]

2) I have been doing the opposite of number 1 for my almost 60 years on this planet

What have you been doing , pooring oil down the drain and clubbing baby seals ?