Today we have the tools to make good models of what is about to come but the climate scientist are fighting with a hand tied behind their backs.
They just dont have the computer power necessary to make good models of the climate. There is no money in it i guess.
I suspect there is pleanty of money, but not enough accurate data.
We humans have a very short window of recent accurate information about a very complex system we clearly do not completly understand.
Remember that experiment where the sensitivity of the data was so high, that re-running the model resulted in completely different results. (aka the butterfly effect according to Lorenz).
To understand the 'base line' we would need accurate data that spans a lot longer period of time than we have, and we would want to be able to test impacts of one parameter at a time on a complex system, but instead we have rapid changes to innumberable parameters all at once, making it impossible to sort out 'cause' from 'effect' and 'base line' from 'alterered'.
I worked seven years in the Canadian Arctic, some of my collegues keep in touch, they show me +35 degree days in the high arctic (unheard of temperatures) and I do worry. If you ever see a valley of permafrost, that normally only thaws down a few inches per summer max, now flowing like a river of mud you would worry too. If these frozen soils hold the volume of methane and decaying ancient vegatation that some are reporting, we may have already set the stage for a lot of GHG's entering the atmosphere - no telling how long this will take, or the effects, but it seems change is already in progress.
I doubt the political will, nor the scientific understanding will be sufficient in time to make much difference, that said, I have my own plans, my bit as 1/8billionth of the population. So my wife and I spent 22 years now building up our own 'homestead' ditched the propane - heat with wood off our own property, raise our own food/trade with neighbours, deep well for our water, good septic for our wastewater, now solar for the electrical part. EV for trips to the City, one day retire my 3/4 ton for F150 Lightning/or similar. Will this 'save the planet' - nope not a chance. Will it negatively impact the planet more than if we did nothing 22 years ago? I don't believe so. Will we be perfectly fine if the entire system were to colapse in a Mad-Max event - nope. Do we feel like we are in control, and have some measure of self-reliance over the critical items (shelter, water, food, heating, security) yup sure do.
It seems to us, that major changes in the world never occur because some government ordered it, major changes always come about from average people making change happen. I for one, try to do what I can on my own, and influence and help others that express an interest. Seeing the size of this forum leads me to believe I am not alone in this ideal.
alt-market.us
