What do you think, Battery prices going up or down by 2023?

robby

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Typically I have a good read on whats going to happen in the short term future with prices, but with all that is going on I am going back and forth in my head as to what the short term future will bring with Rack Mount Battery Prices.

So far i am looking at:

Reasons the prices might go up:
Increased Demand
Global Supply Issues with Raw Materials.
Possible escalation in the US Trade war with China

Reasons They Might Go Down:
Increase Supply from China to Kill the new LFP Startups in other countries now that China's Royalty Free contract is up.
Economic recession in the US and across the Globe.
Other types of superior battery chemistries hitting the market.


I am thinking of buying another expensive battery pack but just don't know if I should hold off.

Your Thoughts?
 
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time2roll

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If prices drop it will be small. More likely IMO to rise and it could be significant. The real trick is to get quality cells as the premium stuff is over subscribed for the next decade.
 

robby

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If prices drop it will be small. More likely IMO to rise and it could be significant. The real trick is to get quality cells as the premium stuff is over subscribed for the next decade.
Is that a gut feeling, something you heard or is there an article about it.
 

Rennit

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No one knows.

We could enter a global recession and inventories would sky rocket making prices drop.

We could keep having supply chain issues and trade wars and prices could sky rocket.

We could get ww3 started and none of that matters.

I say, get the batteries now. Worst case they get cheaper, then buy more.
 

robby

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The U.S. is 5-10 years away from being a player in the Lithium market. We're China's biatch.
Closer to 5 Years but there are other countries that may come online earlier.
I am wondering if the Chinese will try to sabotage them all by dumping batteries at a much lower price in the next few months. They did it before with Solar Panels.
 

time2roll

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Is that a gut feeling, something you heard or is there an article about it.
The best is going to electric vehicles and utility storage afaik. Automakers have been short on batteries for 15 years and are still scrambling to find materials and production facilities. Nothing is slowing down. Just common general news sources.
 

robby

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The best is going to electric vehicles and utility storage afaik. Automakers have been short on batteries for 15 years and are still scrambling to find materials and production facilities. Nothing is slowing down. Just common general news sources.
Talked to my Supplier today and he said he is not sure what is going to happen but he has seen a slight price increase since April.
 

Bobert

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Jan 15, 2022
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Typically I have a good read on whats going to happen in the short term future with prices, but with all that is going on I am going back and forth in my head as to what the short term future will bring with Rack Mount Battery Prices.

So far i am looking at:

Reasons the prices might go up:
Increased Demand
Global Supply Issues with Raw Materials.
Possible escalation in the US Trade war with China

Reasons They Might Go Down:
Increase Supply from China to Kill the new LFP Startups in other countries now that China's Royalty Free contract is up.
Economic recession in the US and across the Globe.
Other types of superior battery chemistries hitting the market.


I am thinking of buying another expensive battery pack but just don't know if I should hold off.

Your Thoughts?
If you need it buy it if you don’t need it wait.
 

chrisski

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Aug 14, 2020
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3,491
If you need it buy it if you don’t need it wait.
I agree with not waiting based off a perceived change.

My guess is the prices for lithium batteries will stay under inflation, but nearly all from foreign sources. I don’t expect lithium production to ramp up in the US. Too dirty.

I think we have one active lithium mine. We may get a second.
 

Skinny76

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I think the biggest factor will be geopolitical. Tarrifs, import restrictions and countered export restrictions. I know the powers at be are wanting to go full on green, but as we are seeing now, be prepared for a slow crawl to domestic production, be it the U.S. or Europe or elsewhere. Will it get more expensive? My complete guess is, yes. We are so dependent (United States) on imports that it gets much more expensive before it gets relatively cheaper.
 

42OhmsPA

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Pennsylvania
I don't see them going down any time soon. My past 3 orders have all been higher than the last. The 230ahs from Docan Jumped ~$3 since yesterday, I'm glad my invoice still had the $121.50 cell price. I noticed the BMS prices went up as well.
SIde note, I work for a large tier 1 automotive supplier (interior parts). Based on the demand I see from the OEMs that currently have electric vehicles vs gas vehicles there is no decline in EV demand, gas on the other hand is alarming how much it has dropped off over the years.
Interesting times...
 

Danke

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Apr 5, 2022
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If you can take advantage of the tax credit, they are 26% cheaper this year, then 22% next year, 0% in 2024.

But maybe that will change, never know.
 

Alkaline

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Jul 26, 2020
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356
I believe they will stay at where they are, already companies , lithium mines, and other portions of the supply chain have found if they raise prices the demand slows.

They will want to adjust prices for the best overall return even if means lowering margin for increased sales.

But yes I think in 2020-2021 we hit the bottom and will hover around this mark. Lowering prices will require new technology or chemistries.

I feel the same about solar panels, the competition and prices drop down so much that LG left the market and they had the best solar panels.
 

The Dish Doc

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Three Rivers, Florida
I have been hearing about possible rolling blackouts on what passes for news channels these days. If that happens, I think there will be more interest and demand for solutions which I fear could drive prices higher. Then there's that pesky Taiwan being overrun thingy.
 

Nickatnyt

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Joined
Jul 5, 2021
Messages
87
Typically I have a good read on whats going to happen in the short term future with prices, but with all that is going on I am going back and forth in my head as to what the short term future will bring with Rack Mount Battery Prices.

So far i am looking at:

Reasons the prices might go up:
Increased Demand
Global Supply Issues with Raw Materials.
Possible escalation in the US Trade war with China

All the talk about rolling blackouts, grid sabotage, etc. SHOULD cause demand to go up. We shall see, but I decided to not wait and find out but rather snagged me a Power Queen 200ah 'plus' while free shipping still exists.
 

Warpspeed

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Joined
Jun 11, 2021
Messages
328
I think the biggest factor will be geopolitical. Tarrifs, import restrictions and countered export restrictions. I know the powers at be are wanting to go full on green, but as we are seeing now, be prepared for a slow crawl to domestic production, be it the U.S. or Europe or elsewhere. Will it get more expensive? My complete guess is, yes. We are so dependent (United States) on imports that it gets much more expensive before it gets relatively cheaper.
Agree,
Its not a question of will it cost more, but will stuff from China or anywhere else, even be available at all, at any price.

We are on the brink of major war on several fronts, also on the very brink of world wide total financial collapse.
 
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