diy solar

diy solar

Transitioning to California NEM3 strategies

Calvin98

New Member
Joined
Jun 29, 2022
Messages
283
Are there any early solar adopters who had NEM1 who have now been transitioned to NEM3/Solar Billing? What are your new strategies? How is it working?

We have NEM1 and at some point we will probably be transitioned to NEM3 or the new Solar Billing here in California. The strategies for the two are completely different. For NEM1, the peak rates were noon to 6 PM Monday through Friday. Peak rates were about $.31 per kilowatt hour Monday through Friday and off peak rates were about 8 1/2 cents kilowatt hour. And the billing was done over a period of one year. So in the winter time you could use more power than you generated and in the summer, you could generate more and maybe be even. Our strategy at the time was to minimize loads during the peak hours i.e. noon to 6 PM weekdays and generate as much PV as possible during those hours .Then, for every kilowatt we put in at peak rates we got $0.31 credit. Then we started using the loads after 6 PM and we were able to use about 3.5kW of power for every kilowatt hr put in earlier and still be even. That strategy meant that we tried to use as much power in the evenings and nights and weekends.

Later on the rates were changed so that the peak and the off-peak were almost similar. They only differed by a few cents. Then the whole strategy of minimizing peak consumption and maximizing peak production kind of went out the window. It didn’t really matter when you used or when you generated power. With the new solar billing program, anything we feed into the grid we get a few cents per kilowatt hour credit and anything we take out of the grid we have to pay full retail i.e. 50 to 60 or more cents per kilowatt hour. Those rules of course require a lot of self consumption and battery. Where the old strategy was that you could be net zero over the year the new strategy means that you have to be net zero every second. If you don’t do anything, you’re going to end up with a large power bill again. In the day you’ll be giving your PV away for free and at night you’ll be paying retail rates for power.

The new strategy would be to turn on all loads during sun hours and try to match consumption with production as much as possible. Instead of irrigating the lawns at night we would have to start irrigating during the day when the sun was up. The same with other loads.

Some things can be automated with timers. Irrigation can be certainly set to start at say 10 AM and end at 12 PM. Air conditioners could be used during the summer from say 11 AM till 5 PM in the evening. Basically the new strategy is “use it or lose it. “ For nighttime use will need to have enough battery storage so as to avoid importing from the grid and paying retail rates at night.

Some other strategies are running manual loads such as dishwashers, clothes, dryers, and washing machines also during sunlight hours. Avoid using those loads at night. That could just be a habit that you get into and you just press the button when the sun is up or that can also be automated. Amazon does have finger bot switches that can be put on old devices that need a push button to turn them on.

Amazon.com: MOES Fingerbot Plus Smart Button Pusher No Wiring Switch, Upgrade with Touch Control, Work with Smart Life App, Add MOES Tuya Bluetooth Hub Make it Compatible with Alexa,Google Home and Timer Control : Toys & Games

They are Wi-Fi enabled and compatible with Apple HomeKit, Home Assistant, etc. Or whatever ecosystem you happen to be in. You can use those to turn on devices when solar production is at its maximum and you are not home. Or stagger them at different times of the day. Newer devices might have automation already built in.

EV charging is another challenge. If you have a 9 to 5 job, how do you charge your car when your solar is producing at home and your car is sitting in a parking lot at work not charging? If you have the option, you might be able to get a charger that can charge from excess solar during sunlight hours when you happen to be home.

You could also have a strategy where you drive during the week and only charge on the weekend when you’re home. Of course that all depends on the length of your drive and a lot of other factors. Different people will have different solutions to that. All depending on their situations.

During the day, when there’s enough solar, a whole house air conditioner can certainly be running just from solar. At night that’s a different question. A 5 ton air conditioner, if it’s an older unit, can use 6000 W of power. On a hot summer day and night with temperatures over 100° would mean that the air conditioner could run from 7 PM to 7 AM and that would need 72 kWh of battery storage. Assuming if it was on continuously for those high temperature periods. One of our solutions to deal with that question was to use a mini split installed in the bedroom and only cool the bedroom at night. The mini split uses 1000 W at full speed and only about 400 W or less on low power. The temperature coming out of the mini split is significantly cooler than on a normal A/C. 41° versus 61°F. The rest of the house can be a bit warm in the morning, but that is something you can probably get used to and as soon as the sun is up, and you have enough solar, the whole house air conditioner could be turned on again. A mini split using 4 kWh of battery storage is certainly a whole lot better than a whole house air conditioner that needs 72 kWh of storage. That one strategy saves 68 kilowatt hours of battery storage.

We have an Emporia energy monitor and that really helps you to see where the production and consumption goes. That in turn can help you decide how much battery storage you need for night times and winter times. You can see when to turn loads on and went to turn them off and for how long, etc.

One member here, Hedges, noted that with the new PG&E rate plan published that he plans to push energy into the grid at those super high peak rates where are you can can get $3 to $4 dollars per kilowatt of energy put into the grid between certain hours such as 7p.m. to 9 p.m. on certain days. He noted that there are several days where the super high rates make it feasible to feed grid into the power grid. But they only apply to certain days and very specific times of day many of which are not during hours where the sun is actually above the horizon where you could generate it with PV production. He’s using a sunny boy storage and an LG high-voltage battery to try to accomplish that. Banking kilowatt hours at $3-$4 per kilowatt hour can help build credits to offset winter time use. This can also reduce the amount of battery storage needed. Another new strategy.

What strategies have you used that have helped you?

What strategies would be helpful under these conditions?

How did your bill change under the new system? Did it remain the same? Did it increase massively?

Did you get a new meter?

Did the utility let you know that they were changing the plan and how much notice did they give you?

It seems like everyone in the world is going to face these issue at some point in the future. Many are already dealing with it right now. At least things here in California are not as bad yet as they are in Australia (and probably other places) where you actually have to pay to put power into the grid. Here at least you get very little for what you put in. We don’t yet have to pay $.50 a kilowatt to put power into the grid, but of course that’s the next step.

Interested to hear how other people are planning for the transition or what they are doing right now.

I feels like having to start over at square one with off-grid pv and batteries. Net 0 over the year is now net 0 every second i.e. basically same as being off-grid.
 
Last edited:
Whatever strategy you come up with, please be sure your inverter supports this strategy. IMO, the easiest thing to do, unless you have batteries,

-I would like my strategy to be drop my critical loads panel during the 4 pm to 7 pm peak rates which my inverter does support. This is the "Drop" mode which lets it charge the batteries, and runn all loads off grid, but if loads are exceeded, will go back on grid.

-What it does not support is I would like to push 3 kWh/hr from my battery to the grid from 7pm to 10 pm. I won't actually be selling this to the grid but this will be used to charge my EV. My inverter does not support that, but others do.

-As for as paying for what goes into the grid, my inverter has a grid zero that will prevent anything going to the grid, but still allow my panels to charge the batteries. Unfortunately, this time of pay to produce would probably fall in my super off peak winter hours from 10 am to 3 pm, and I could not set a time to be in grid zero, either all on or all off. I could set a second "drop" mode.

My point being is with my seven modes my inverter operates off, I would like at least one more mode "Sell Back" and more options to set times.

I would bet most installers won't be familiar with these complicated strategies and won't have a range of products to support. Especially if the grid goes to the European model of changing rates instatnly to meet demand at the moment.
 
Beware assumption of Net 0 every second.. some even relatively recent 'smart meters' logging intervals aren't that 'short', and other discussions (may or may not be related, I don't know) mention more like 15-min intervals. Those PoCo meters are meant for reduced labor to collect billing date (no more meter readers), and enable Time-of-Use rates.

And yes, due to current lack of sufficient CA grid energy storage and lots of solar installs, we have a real issue of excess solar PV production in the middle of Sunny summer (... ie, grid spot pricing dropping negative or close to it, true even here in CA)... given lack of CA grid energy storage (I'll skip any rant about how this came to be), pushing time-shifting energy consumption to residential PV owner 'makes [short-sighted, PoCo friendly] sense'...

And I'd assume there is a formal Net Metering Permission to Operate (backfeed grid) tariff agreement in place for every CA residence on NEM. If you aren't original installer, you can call utility company and gets the details so you know exactly when the extremely generous NEM 1 will end for you

One thing to consider is if/how your electricity consumption has changed over time. And if typical CA home, has plenty of natural gas appliances ... Do you want to plan to replace those with electrical anytime in near-ish future (within 10 years). EV? change of HVAC? etc. All of these considerations, along with your existing Emporia data will help you determine if you would get positive ROI by enlarging your PV array.

A common refrain I've read in these forums is the cheapest enery is the kWh you don't use (ie replacing old HVAC with heat pump system tends to be cheaper than adding PV production and battery to handle extra load vs heat pump based system).

So, the challenge gets to be sizing your battery. With your monitoring data, you'll know what your Inverter's peak load capability needs to be, and typical daily consumption (during different times of the year). And then there is the determination based on your own personal requirements of just highest ROI (time shifting) or also grid-outage backup [larger, more expensive battery and much more expensive if you also want to handle large electric load systems like HVAC, electric/heat pump hot water heater, dryer, etc and that pushes you into larger Inverter vs just an Inverter capable of supporting a critical loads panel ]

LFP batteries sure way better whole house batteries than Li-Ion, but hopefully newer tech will be that much better again (but who knows when it will actually be available and a good value choice for consumers (2-3 yrs, 5-10 yrs? longer?). So you are likely to benefit (ROI perspective) waiting until NEM1 is about to expire before activating house battery solution.
And once out of tariff agreement (20 yrs, right? so 20 yr old panels?), may be time to consider adding panels (or replacing old panels with much higher production current panels, but beware change in panels sizing). Presuming typical CA residential roof-mounted, then you might want to time that along with whatever roof maint may be required. I had 40 yr old roof with concrete Spanish S-Tiles... did full lift 'n lay with a decent amount of coastal wood rot [and original construction screw-ups] repair and then did solar install not long afterwards

So, I suspect the approach depends on your goals
- maximize existing investment, minimize new expenditures, roof is fine, etc - a battery system to cover typical evening rate usage (no grid-forming capability) is probably highest ROI... but not most 'livable', which you have to define based on your budget.
- [assuming roof-mounted PV panels] I'd recommend against doing anything up on roof that would need to be taken back down again before long for expected roof maint.
 
I feel like you are definitely overthinking things but the basic answer is to get a battery. It will give you the ultimate flexibility in shifting loads, arbitrage etc. A battery doesn't need to cover 100% of your electric use to be useful. I also wouldn't count too much on significant export credits in the future as there are now a huge amount of grid-scale batteries on the CA grid.

The best strategy is still to self-consume your solar as much as possible, due to the way non-bypassable charges (NBCs) work. Extending this to a battery - you can self-consume at night as well, but keep in mind the battery round-trip efficiency of ~85% and any tare losses.

The message from CPUC and IOUs is eventually much higher fixed charges and lower volumetric pricing, which means that most financial gains will come from off-grid installs or cutting grid connection completely. Both of these go beyond 15-minute net 0 and have different considerations for how to design your system.
 
I sold my house with a NEM1 contract. Was not nearly as lucrative as of late compared to the beginning due to TOU rate shifting.
New house will be NEM3 later this summer. Designed to be mostly off grid to minimal grid use. Not sure how it will pan out with the higher fixed charges and minimal feed-in compensation. Have not reviewed if allowing SCE to semi control the feed-in from 4-9 pm would help enough.
 
Definitely focus on the 2 pm - 8 pm time frame and generating / using stored power as much as possible to avoid buying from the grid at all.

The big user for most homes is air conditioning, at least for us.

The other less obvious thing is making sure that you have back up for refrigeration and light cooking for when the grid goes down or comes up short during fire season.
 
All good points. Batteries will be needed. V2H, V2L, V2G will also be helpful. They have more than enough capacity to run a house at night. If you can charge at work during the day that is even better. A/C is definitely a big user of power. Mini Splits are the way to go for us. Use way less power, quiet and cost less. Friends got solar in around 2000. So 24 years with NEM1. Their papers have no end date, just PTO. Do later NEM1 users have a 20 yr period listed in their papers?

Not exactly related to the question, but free public charging during sun hrs when ev's are not parked at home would be nice, maybe even necessary. People could go to Safeway, to do some shopping, charge in the parking lot for a while (wireless charging), then drive to work and charge their cars full by the time they leave work. 2 birds with 1 stone so to speak. Put the excess daytime PV into EV's during the day, EV's power homes at night.
 
Was not nearly as lucrative as of late compared to the beginning due to TOU rate shifting.
Yes it was the TOU rates shifting that eroded benefits of NEM 1.0. Then NEM 2.0 added Non Bypassable Charges to the mix which have caused me to charge my EVs during the day to avoid NBCs. The OP implied that rates were tied to NEM status which is not entirely true. Some EV rates were grandfathered which may have made it seem that way. Recently I changed from an EV rate to a regular TOU rate after doing some analysis. My case is unusual because my consumption is skewed toward winter months. I have a deficit as much as 1500 kWhs in winter but the dollars are at much lower rates and I easily pay that back with higher production at higher rates in summer. I use the grid as a seasonal battery in winter but still is 30 kWhs of batteries to avoid peak rates and to some extent lower NBCs.
 
Right. Saw here in the DIY Forum that one or more NEM1 users wanted to change to NEM2 before the NEW took effect last year only to have the utility make it super difficult to do. They had to remove everything associated with the old system and start new. Removing some parts might be ok, but removing a ground mount only to have to install it again make little sense. Why do you have to remove all AC wires if they all still meet code, etc. Plus if they did all that, they would still not be guaranteed NEM 2 for another 20 years.
 
The OP implied that rates were tied to NEM status which is not entirely true.
Not sure I said that. Certainly did not mean to imply that. Rates ($/kwh) have been increasing continually. Peak and off peak days and times have also changed. The spread between peak and off peak has also gotten a lot smaller (from $0.085/$0.32 to $0.46 /$0.50 and higher.
 
I hope it gets rescinded since I have not found a strategy which will reduce the impact of fixed rates. I pay $230 a year in NBCs which are not offset by solar production.
You could be "off -grid" and still have to pay the monthly fees. Look at it as price to pay for "emergency source of power" if you ever need it?
 
You could be "off -grid" and still have to pay the monthly fees. Look at it as price to pay for "emergency source of power" if you ever need it?
Yes, I consider it an inexpensive fee for using the grid as a seasonal battery. I have a 30 kWh battery for daily load shifting but could not afford a 1500 kWh battery for my seasonal needs. I don't like the prospect of a larger fixed fee but the one proposed is not out of line with some other regions and I agree it is a small price to pay for emergency power.
 
It's okay, I just wanted other readers to clearly understand that rates were not tied to NEM status. Your post was informative and the topic is a good one.
Never in a million years did I ever think that what has/is happening would happen. I figured if you got solar you would be good to go - "forever" so to speak. Never thought that utilities could play with rates, times, etc. to make solar PV unattractive. But here we are. Luckily, all is not lost. PV cells have gone from $4.50/watt in 2000, to $$0.20 today. Inverters same. They cost $1/watt (2500w inverter cost $2500). Now they cost $0.20/watt. 5,000 w inverter cost around $1,000 give or take. Before the pandemic anyway. Battery prices are going down also. Being completely independent is possible and certainly costs a lot less than it did before. Solar panels are cheap enough that you can even use them as "fences" that make power.
 
Yes, I consider it an inexpensive fee for using the grid as a seasonal battery. I have a 30 kWh battery for daily load shifting but could not afford a 1500 kWh battery for my seasonal needs. I don't like the prospect of a larger fixed fee but the one proposed is not out of line with some other regions and I agree it is a small price to pay for emergency power.
Right. Seasonal storage question. 2 options I know of. PICA and LAVO. Not sure how good they are. PICA stores excess solar as hydrogen in tanks for winter use. LAVO also makes hydrogen but in a solid state.

Limited only by the number of tanks you have and how much pv.

Each of their boxes can hold 40kwh of energy. Maybe $35,000 cost.

Batteries take care of storage for a few days. These above can potentially store power for a year. probably still pretty expensive though.
 
Last edited:
Yes, I consider it an inexpensive fee for using the grid as a seasonal battery. I have a 30 kWh battery for daily load shifting but could not afford a 1500 kWh battery for my seasonal needs. I don't like the prospect of a larger fixed fee but the one proposed is not out of line with some other regions and I agree it is a small price to pay for emergency power.
More PV panels for winter time?
 
Here is your solution: :)
The Picea 2 costs at minimum 99,900 euros
The Picea module converts the surplus solar power in summer into hydrogen. In this way, large amounts of energy can be stored efficiently and over long periods of time. In winter, the gas, via a fuel cell, can be converted back into electricity and heat. The long-term storage capacity is up to 1,500 kilowatt-hours of electricity. In the smallest version with 16 gas cylinders, it is 300 kilowatt-hours.


Actually, if you read on, 1,500 kw of storage costs $500,000:confused:
Probably need to wait a while.
 
More PV panels for winter time?
I have added 3kW of panels already and don't have much more room. I have already exceeded the 1kW allowed under my NEM 2.0 agreement. I used the export limiting feature in my SolArk to not exceed my perceived max export so as not to exceed what I receive as an export maximum which PG&E can see. My total exported to the grid is significantly below the annual production of my system because I self consume so much power. I continually think about ways to strategize and mitigate the erosion of benefits.
 
I have added 3kW of panels already and don't have much more room. I have already exceeded the 1kW allowed under my NEM 2.0 agreement. I used the export limiting feature in my SolArk to not exceed my perceived max export so as not to exceed what I receive as an export maximum which PG&E can see. My total exported to the grid is significantly below the annual production of my system because I self consume so much power. I continually think about ways to strategize and mitigate the erosion of benefits.
Right. That is why I asked how others are dealing with it. Better mouse traps mean us mices need to evolve into better mice.
 
High temps make it a lot more challenging. In 2003 we had 3 days over 100F in June. Last mo we had over 8 days over 100F and temps for June were a lot higher than temps 20 years also. Higher temps = more A/C = more power needed.

For winter needs - if it is for heating - pellet stove? Capture warmer air in the attic and redirect it into the house for heat? Solar walls that heat air and bring warm air into house?
 
Last edited:
Never in a million years did I ever think that what has/is happening would happen. I figured if you got solar you would be good to go - "forever" so to speak. Never thought that utilities could play with rates, times, etc. to make solar PV unattractive.
Nah, the original net metering plans were always to kickstart the market to go beyond the 'tinkerers' and actually have a grid impact.
That succeeded quite well, but grid-scale storage hasn't kept up (and impact was overlooked/ignored for apparent political reasons, or ??), and even recent announcements of large grid-tied utility scale energy storage aren't enough. So naturally, as installs become 'popular, there was a need to adjust. More adjustments will be needed as well unless really cheap long-term, high-scale electricity storage becomes available such that ALL the mid-day residential PV production can be stored in a cost-effective manner (see AUS strategies regarding charging residences for putting excess power on grid at certain times of the day)

And the original NEM1 scheme was so generous, I understand being upset but also see why adjustments were required. Remember when peak kWh rates was typical business hours Mon-Fri 9-5? NEM1 was not sustainable (though shame on those who didn't communicate the caveats involved). And I admit I'm more than a bit upset, just getting a NEM2.0 system, with the new fixed charge which changes the entire PV system justification calculation (and is basically CPUC having to acknowledge their own screw-ups). I am currently a net producer for the year, so these will have a significant (percentage wise) impact on our household [in the end, not that much $$, but it is the principle].

And switching away from natural gas appliances wasn't much of a thought 20 years ago, nor EVs, but certainly comes to mind now, so adding PV capacity makes sense as other than switching from old-school A/C to heat pump A/C dropped electricity usage, most other things or using more, not less kWh in a typical home (sorry, my experience has always been in neighborhoods with natural gas or rural with propane tank.. so no electric hot water heaters to switch to heat pump versions.. anyway)

What will be interesting, if we do end up with grid-scale cost-effective energy storage, is if eventually TOU rates go away as not worth it to maintain. Or if TOU rates kept, in some form, to incentivize kWh use when there isn't a need to pull from storage? ex. I could envision a time when overnight kWh rates are higher (in areas without a lot of nighttime wind or geothermal generation), and EV charging overnight becomes the expensive way to charge.
 
What will be interesting, if we do end up with grid-scale cost-effective energy storage, is if eventually TOU rates go away as not worth it to maintain. Or if TOU rates kept, in some form, to incentivize kWh use when there isn't a need to pull from storage? ex. I could envision a time when overnight kWh rates are higher (in areas without a lot of nighttime wind or geothermal generation), and EV charging overnight becomes the expensive way to charge.
It's hard to predict the future but it's likely that there will always be value for more batteries in more places, especially in transmission-congested CA with the rooftop solar mandate now. Unfortunately the extent that CA IOUs want to expose TOU rates to end-customers seems to be different for each utility. The near term likelihood seems to be moving 10am-2pm to "super off-peak" to further decrease compensation to existing NEM2 contracts (and match current CALISO grid conditions).

In general the IOUs want to prevent end-users for making capital investments due to their compensation model, where they mostly get a fixed percentage profit from "investments and upgrades".
 

diy solar

diy solar
Back
Top