Transitioning to California NEM3 strategies

[Lawrence_SoCal]

The near term likelihood seems to be moving 10am-2pm to "super off-peak" to further decrease compensation to existing NEM2 contracts

SDG&E already has 10a-2p as Super off-peak in March and April... My guess was that it wasn't hot enough for general A/C loads to be consuming during those months, on average/in general. Whereas summer generates more PV kWh during those hours, but also have business and residential air-condition demand to go with it... ??? but only a SWAG

As for me, with partner preferring simple (and cheapest to charge PHEV overnight was true for years before we got solar... getting to switch behavior... not so easy)...
the issue I have now with solar (SDG&E NEM2) is that last year we WAY over-produced on off-peak, and are lacking in super off-peak kWh... with system not working for months (including April) due to melted breaker connecting PV sub-panel in main load center (whole other story)... This year, YTD, I have >3X spare (over-production) of off-peak vs super-off-peak kWh's, and that includes occasionally trying to make sure PHEV gets charged mid-day vs overnight (no work commute involved)... so oddly, I actually appreciate the extra super-off-peak time

that said, I do expect, even with NEM2, that before too long (5? 10? years) that adding a whole house battery and increasing (to almost entirely) self-consuming will be a good ROI (whereas it wasn't when I was researching solar 2 years ago). It will be interesting if battery tech advances to a point, where going 100% self-consuming becomes something that would pay for itself in the ~7yr timeframe... At 10 years (typical current battery chemistry lifetime warranty and replacement costs to be considered), ROI calculation gets to point of being questionable. If a solid ROI (with battery and install) becomes prevalent, and grid energy storage hasn't become pervasive and cost-effective, the fight over urban residential consumers disconnecting (going off-grid, cancelling IOU/PoCo service) might be front-and-center (vs fringe at the moment). as for 'requiring service... what happens when folks disconnect main service breaker, refuse to pay fixed fee bill with 0 usage and then 'welcoming' a disconnect action from PoCo) ... anyways... mental rambling

And yes, the current monopoly PoCo structure may have made sense decades ago, but typical bureaucracy is being very slow to adjust to a better 'structure for fulfillment' that actually encourages reasonably desired corporate behavior for long term societal success (ignoring Marxist-inspired long-disproven thought process so popular in Sacramento and CPUC; thought processes that are offensive to the informed/educated and rational .. but I digress). The current CPUC compensation methods for IOU/PoCo is counter-productive to society (under-grounding funds not spent, poor maintenance, lack of grid-interconnections, etc)
Though I will acknowledge that creating a new regulatory/pricing paradigm that needs to be stable and long-running, when situation is rapidly evolving is more than difficult (even more so when basic understanding of what is 'fair' to residential and commercial users is not something that can be generally agreed upon).

 

[Ampster]

I do expect, even with NEM2, that before too long (5? 10? years) that adding a whole house battery and increasing (to almost entirely) self-consuming will be a good ROI (whereas it wasn't when I was researching solar 2 years ago).

I am on Nem 2.0 with two EVs and I believe we are already there. At least in my case I installed batteries and a hyprid inverter within month of getting my PTO for the Grid Tie system. With NBCs it makes more sense to charge my EVs from excess solar durng the day that use off peak rates for overnight charging.

 

[Lawrence_SoCal]

My annual true-up amount came to under $100. with around $300 in NBC and Min Charg Adj (MCA) less smart thermostat, other credits, plus Excess gen credit (net, of over 2,000 kWh @~$0.045/kwh, SDG&E screw-up with mis-calculation, taking months to get corrected bills (for all customers in my situation, no notice or action taken on my part... part of known billing system inadequacy at SDG&E, as noted by their own staff... /side rant))

Even if I had no credits, at $300/yr for NBCs & MCA, that still doesn't create a positive ROI in 10 years for hybrid inverter, batteries and proper (much less permit inspected) installation. So not there, yet, for me..
- for now, yes I expect those CPUC blessed PoCo vampire charges to go up including with the announced new $20+/mo fixed grid-connected monthly charge (unless that replaces Min Charg Adj, in which case it will be largely a wash for me)
- I'm hoping, as part of contractor settlement to remediate my PV solar system install screw-ups that I'll get a decent amount of Main load center, new sub-panel, and related wiring done, and in so doing, be set that a hybrid inverter and battery install will be largely plug and play when the time comes. but we'll see