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diy solar

Clouds suck... Part 2

Q-Dog said:
ourworldindata.org

Weather forecasts have become much more accurate; we now need to make them available to everyone

A four-day forecast today is as accurate as a one-day forecast 30 years ago.
ourworldindata.org ourworldindata.org
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Your refuting point I never made…acurracy was never my point….obviously new tech produces better results…
I was addressing HOW it’s presented and marketed…
Go sell sell adds for awhile and you will understand my point better after seeing how it’s works from the inside…
 
Remember the mantra of the media….” If it bleeds, it leads”…..
 
JRH said:
Your refuting point I never made…acurracy was never my point….obviously new tech produces better results…
I was addressing HOW it’s presented and marketed…
Go sell sell adds for awhile and you will understand my point better after seeing how it’s works from the inside…
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I don't believe I responded to anyone in particular. I worked in radio, TV, and movies for 40 years. I was on the inside.
 
Tulex said:
Statistics say weather forecasting is more accurate than ever. Where I live, that hasn't been the case at all. Their same day forecasting is the worst it's ever been. More than one day out? Forget about it.
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My favorite is when they report it as currently sunny and outside it is a typhoon out there. Uh. Right.
 
OffGridInTheCity said:
It's the 4 months of winter that annoy me. Not 'just clouds' but really really really THICK CLOUDS day after day. We're talking 2 or 4 or 6kwh for the whole day on a 90kwh array (in spring). If it weren't for that, I'd be 100% off-grid :)
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That is one of the numerous effects caused by the increasing level of humidity in the atmosphere across the planet. Increased CO2 means more trapped heat and more heat means more evaporation.
 
JRH said:
.obviously new tech produces better results…
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Not if its just extra computational power, that just gives you the same wrong answer in less time than before. There also has to be better software behind it. The Met office in the UK is always buying bigger faster computers but their forecasting never seems to improve.
 
kommando said:
Not if its just extra computational power, that just gives you the same wrong answer in less time than before. There also has to be better software behind it. The Met office in the UK is always buying bigger faster computers but their forecasting never seems to improve.
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Never used to take any notice of weather forecasts until I got a PV system 13 years ago, then I started taking an interest.

The Met office forecasts have improved significantly over that time, although the improvements may not be where you want them. The noticeable improvement is in granularity, you can get a pretty accurate forecast for your local area which is generally pretty good for 24-48 hours, even for rain which used to be very poor. Longer in the future isn't wonderful, but that's not surprising.
 
kommando said:
Not if its just extra computational power, that just gives you the same wrong answer in less time than before. There also has to be better software behind it. The Met office in the UK is always buying bigger faster computers but their forecasting never seems to improve.
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Yeah I think it's more to improve local forecasting in terms of resolution, but if it was garbage forecast before will just be more detailed garbage reports ahead.
 
I have solar forecast set up for my solar dashboard which hasn't been right since I added it, lucky that it's underestimating by 20% every day.
 
When people ask me for the weather forecast, I just say look upwind, that’s what you’re gonna get in 15 minutes.
Back in the dawn of time I put up the first Internet connected weather station in the Turks and Caicos Islands, and within 15 minutes of my feeding data to Weather underground, they had a five day forecast up.🤷‍♂️
In our usual circumstance, there’s a long cloud that forms over the islands upwind of us, and it streams over us all day. If the wind is just (im)perfect, our house is in the shade all day, if the wind direction is
just a few degrees one way or the other then we have sun all day. One summer we had sun all day and the houses a half a mile away had rain every single day.
Everything here is hyper-local!
 
kommando said:
There also has to be better software behind it
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Correct…that was what “new tech “ I said was meant to imply… a faster calculation without better data gets the same quality level of answer possibly faster…

Ok, …..well …!…..on to newer and different pastures for me….….

Y’all keep the umbrella with ya today…and sunscreen…and maybe a jacket…but don’t forget that swimsuit …..👍😀

J.
 
A lot depends on where you live. Some areas are much easier to predict. When I lived on the south shore of Lake Ontario, our weather forecasts were much more accurate. Pretty much the whole south shore of Lake Ontario gets similar weather. But now living in the Finger Lakes, it's much different. Only 40 miles south, we have our own micro weather zones. Back in the day, a meteorologist had experience to improve predictions. Now, it's just a computer flipping a coin.
 
wpns said:
My Favorite Wife wants to know where we can get some of those space lasers to clear off the clouds.
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You have several wives?

True story, I was researching family history and my great great grandfather came over on the boat from Germany with the first wife around 1850. On the voyage, my great grandfather was born. They had 4 more sons, no daughters. A few years after being here, he went back to Germany and married again and brought her to the USA. This was before the last 3 sons were born.

Nobody knows the reason why he married her, could be she was married to his brother and the brother passed away or she was a house servant and married her in Germany to get her into the USA. I do know she is buried in a different town than where he is buried.
 
In my second life, I'm coming back as a weather forecaster. Never need to be correct and always have excuses why.

I'm currently drilling holes for my next MT Solar mount and forecast was no rain, then very light showers overnight Friday into Saturday with sun all day Saturday. Today is Saturday and I'm taking a break, my hands and knees where getting wet and it is a little chilly today. Heavy overcast.

I have a few feet to go on second hole. The clay in the spoil pile gets a little greasy with this light rain.
 
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