250% more Efficient Solar Cells?

[Rocksnsalt]

Method found to increase Perovskite structure efficiency by 250%.
We’ll see...

But just imagine if solar panels produced in the range of 70% efficiency...
?

 

[JoeHam]

That’s the dream…

 

[upnorthandpersonal]

Theoretically, the absolute maximum you can get to is 68.7% with non concentrated and 86.8% using concentrated sunlight. We're very, very far away from either one of these in practice.

 

[Rocksnsalt]

Theoretically, the absolute maximum you can get to is 68.7% with non concentrated and 86.8% using concentrated sunlight. We're very, very far away from either one of these in practice.

Yes, admittedly I’m optimistic about solar technology, and everything related to it, like battery tech.
Imagine possible progress 10 yrs from now, I’m hoping we’ll see well over the 18-21% efficiency common today.
30% would be huge.
Time will tell…

I think
What were pv efficiencies 10, 20, 30 yrs ago?
Look at how far ev’s have come in 15yrs.
What was average mpg and emissions of an average car in the us 20yrs ago?

 

[HarryN]

Yes, admittedly I’m optimistic about solar technology, and everything related to it, like battery tech.
Imagine possible progress 10 yrs from now, I’m hoping we’ll see well over the 18-21% efficiency common today.
30% would be huge.
Time will tell…

I think
What were pv efficiencies 10, 20, 30 yrs ago?
Look at how far ev’s have come in 15yrs.
What was average mpg and emissions of an average car in the us 20yrs ago?

Roughly 20 years ago:
- Typical Si mono solar panels were 15 - 18% vs 2 - 3% more today.
- Compound semi non concentrated were ~ 42% - has not moved much since then. The company that made this large investment was stopped from building their big array in the CA desert by park regulators and exited the business.
- Fuel efficiency of similar vehicles increased roughly 10% by adding more gears and hybrids
- Emissions for similar gas powered vehicles have changed very little as they had already been reduced by > 99% from 1960 - 2000. It is slightly lower but at great cost and it reduced the fuel mileage gains that were possible
- Diesel emission dropped mostly from adding exhaust particle filtration

 

[Rocksnsalt]

That’s the Spirit! ?


Imagine 18 (past efficiency) is a benchmark, or 100%.
Now calculate what 21 (current efficiency) is to 18.
That’s nearly a 16.7% improvement in efficiency.
using 17 as past efficiency, 21 is a 23.5% improvement.
using 16 as past efficiency, 21 is a 31.25% improvement
using 15 as past efficiency, 21 is a 40% improvement

I’ll take those strides of progress…
and due to the rapid advances in technology, I’d bet the solar farm we’ll see faster efficiency rises.
I’m also optimistic a way to improve high cell/panel temperature (110-140F) efficiencies will occur.

Surely some will find flaw in that line of thinking, and that’s ok, I can live just fine with that. ?

 

[HarryN]

That’s the Spirit! ?


Imagine 18 (past efficiency) is a benchmark, or 100%.
Now calculate what 21 (current efficiency) is to 18.
That’s nearly a 16.7% improvement in efficiency.
using 17 as past efficiency, 21 is a 23.5% improvement.
using 16 as past efficiency, 21 is a 31.25% improvement
using 15 as past efficiency, 21 is a 40% improvement

I’ll take those strides of progress…
and due to the rapid advances in technology, I’d bet the solar farm we’ll see faster efficiency rises.
I’m also optimistic a way to improve high cell/panel temperature (110-140F) efficiencies will occur.

Surely some will find flaw in that line of thinking, and that’s ok, I can live just fine with that. ?

I think the big gain over the next 5 - 10 years will be improved "time" matching of electrical power generation by renewable with actual demand.

At this point, most solar is being installed to generate power during a relatively narrow time period of the day, and this is not at all optimal for when people naturally use power in their lives.

The economist in the world are trying to package this up in 15 minute (or less) time packets with an associated price and make it a wall street commodity that they can make money on.

The battery companies are trying to set up to store / supply using the pack to "time shift" from lower price points to higher price point time periods. (usually ~ 4 - 8 pm in the summer in the US) Other times for different areas.

What I believe will happen is that people will increasingly install panels so that they are generating power in the morning, mid day and late afternoon in a way that more closely matches their own actual use.

This actually has a very large potential impact, as dealing with this late day peak demand period is quite challenging in general for the grid and is the time period that ends up turning on very large natural gas turbines to keep up.

I really don't know if solar panels will improve a lot more in the future or not, but the nice thing is that even with no improvements at all to the technology, we can still make meaningful gains with just basic engineering and implementation.