66% of ISO New England power is nat gas. When do rates go up?

[Maitake]

Nat gas has roughly doubled in price recently. My current thinking is we will see accelerated payback on our systems, but I don't know.
Do utilities have multi year contracts? Are they slaves to the spot market?
Let me know your thoughts.

 

[MichaelK]

Although NG is transportable, almost all the natural gas consumed in North America originates in North America. In the short term, I wouldn't expect to much price inflation.

In the long-term though, as new liquification/gasification plants get built and come on-line, I'd expect we are going to supply more of Europe's needs via LNG tankers, and that will drive prices up accordingly.

 

[MurphyGuy]

Natural gas is probably going to triple or quadruple next winter due to Russia.. In order to stop Europe from importing Russian energy, the rest of the world is going to have to start shipping it to them, which will drag down available supplies in those countries supplying the gas.

If you don't already have a wood stove, now is a good time to get one.

We have natural gas at my home but we almost never use it. For most of the Michigan winter, we use our solar power to heat electrically, and when it gets really cold, we fire up the wood stove.

 

[MichaelK]

Natural gas is probably going to triple or quadruple next winter due to Russia.. In order to stop Europe from importing Russian energy, the rest of the world is going to have to start shipping it to them, which will drag down available supplies in those countries supplying the gas.

I see that eventually happening, but in the next 6 months? How many gassification ports do the Europeans have right now? What I see as the bottleneck is that the gas has to be liquified to sail it across the ocean, and then it has to be re-gasified at the port before distribution. Just how quickly can the Europeans ramp up that capacity? Then again, how quickly can we ramp up the capacity to liquify the gas? What is our capacity right NOW to ship?

That being said, I'm sure the gas companies can use that as the excuse to raise prices NOW, for stuff that hasn't even starting shipping yet.

 

[MurphyGuy]

I see that eventually happening, but in the next 6 months?

Gas might go up a little, but the big increases will mostly happen when the weather starts turning cold again. This is where Putin screwed up. He thought Ukraine would fall within a couple weeks and he could threaten Europe with turning off their supplies if they did anything to help Ukraine.

Once the weather warmed up, that card was rendered useless.

How many gassification ports do the Europeans have right now? What I see as the bottleneck is that the gas has to be liquified to sail it across the ocean, and then it has to be re-gasified at the port before distribution. Just how quickly can the Europeans ramp up that capacity? Then again, how quickly can we ramp up the capacity to liquify the gas? What is our capacity right NOW to ship?

I don't know the answer to that, but I think the ships don't have to "off load" the gas like a cargo ship does, they just plug into the distribution line and feed the system like any other reservoir, and when they're close to empty but retaining enough to sail back, they close the valve, disconnect, and go back to the supply port.

That being said, I'm sure the gas companies can use that as the excuse to raise prices NOW, for stuff that hasn't even starting shipping yet.

Yup, that's one of the characteristics of the free market system. Everyone loves free market, right up until prices go up, then they start pointing fingers.
My advice is to invest in alternative energy sources that can perform the same task. That's what we did when the orange guy got into office, I saw that coming a mile away. We put in enough solar to run the entire house plus space heaters in the winter..

People underestimate the roll Russia has on the global energy supply.. Most don't realize they pump more oil and gas than the Saudi's do. It always baffled me that Europe would hop in bed with Putin and depend on him for anything important.