Santan 🚨 Tariff Alert Aug 1st!

[sunshine_eggo]

I don't know whether to laugh or cry at this. What should happen vs what actually happens...

It's why I LOVE "gridlock." If either party has control of everything, SOMETHING gets screwed up. When control is split, the ONLY things that get done are the things that everybody agrees on... still not great in most cases, but it beats the crap out of making laws based on extreme ideologies, which are almost always detrimental to all.

 

[awpatterson217]

When have you seen logic and politics align?

This is anti-china, pro-'merca, "protecting 'mercan jerbs," which is what a large chunk of the country wants or can be talked into (mostly because they don't understand). There's also the benefit of getting more taxes from american consumers.

The politicians get to be perceived as doing something meaningful, while raising prices for consumers and generating tax revenue.

I mean the argument that we’re protecting American jobs might be valid if Americans were at least making these products. But we’re not, so…

 

[Zwy]

I wouldn't worry about tariffs/double the price in the future. Companies like Sunpower are basically bankrupt as solar installations have slowed considerably, especially under NEM 3.0

There will be a cleansing of excess coming, things will most likely be firesale before prices climb again. This is Wave Principle in action, the group before us is the Innovators, next comes the Early Adopters which we are most likely with LFP ESS (more widespread availability and adoption), then comes Early Majority, then Late Majority.

In between the stages of the bell curve you see some drawback before things move up again. This is due to heavy demand at the peak of each stage, essentially each stage has it's own bell curve.

This principle is also known as Technology Adoption Lifecycle.

 

[stinkonamonkey]

There is danger in a single country controlling an entire industry. Especially if that country is an "enemy". Political decisions are made for more than purely economic reasons.

I'm not commenting on if the tariffs are right, I'm just saying it's a bigger discussion than simply economics.

 

[45North]

Oh boy, here we go!

1. Import tariffs are imposed by politicians according to their beliefs/understanding of how things work and what will work.
2. This is election year in the US and things are heating up!

Where is this headed?

 

[Supervstech]

Stated 25% increase.
$100 panel will increase to $125

Remember, only the TARIFF increases 25 to 50% not the retail price.
Say the panel wholesale is 100.00, and our price for the panel is 200.

A 50% tarrif means thw panel now costs them 25% more of the original cost, so subtract 25% from 100 you get 75, add 50% you get 112.50 cost.
Our price goes up to 212.50, and they make same profit.

BUT in all likelyhood, they will just add 50% of total cost and make us pay 250.

 

[Danke]

Remember, only the TARIFF increases 25 to 50% not the retail price.
Say the panel wholesale is 100.00, and our price for the panel is 200.

A 50% tarrif means thw panel now costs them 25% more of the original cost, so subtract 25% from 100 you get 75, add 50% you get 112.50 cost.
Our price goes up to 212.50, and they make same profit.

BUT in all likelyhood, they will just add 50% of total cost and make us pay 250.

Math is hard. See: https://diysolarforum.com/threads/santan-🚨-tariff-alert-aug-1st.87499/#post-1152523

A 25% tariff on a $75 dollar panel is not $100. That would be a 33.33% tariff.

 

[Texas-Mark]

This is anti-china, pro-'merca, "protecting 'mercan jerbs," which is what a large chunk of the country wants or can be talked into (mostly because they don't understand). There's also the benefit of getting more taxes from american consumers.

Exactly. That is why I was asking how the consumer wins if prices will go up no matter where they come from.

 

[Nobodybusiness]

Who knows what is going to happen. If there is enough public outcry in the news they will pass a bill to delay it.
It seems like the Chinese are already moving manufacturing to the USA to get around the Tariffs.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinese-owned-solar-factories-united-states-2024-07-17/

Which was the plan.

 

[Skypower]

They might get a few panicked suckers to buy at the above true tariff price but it will show to the smarter of us which sellers are shisters and to avoid. Bottom line, I’m thinking that there’s plenty of margin to actually reduce prices to the level that we are currently paying delivered in a few months.

 

[Dadoftheturkeykids]

Green energy should be tax exempt in my opinion, but obviously big brother loses in that situation along with the monopolized grid energy companies. They really don't want us to make our own electricity unless we are dumping it into their infrastructure.

 

[sunshine_eggo]

Green energy should be tax exempt in my opinion, but obviously big brother loses in that situation along with the monopolized grid energy companies. They really don't want us to make our own electricity unless we are dumping it into their infrastructure.

They don't want that either unless it can be done for a huge disparity in value, i.e., pay you a couple cents per kWh but charge you 10X.

 

[ScrotpusGobbleBottom]

The politicians get to be perceived as doing something meaningful

That is the extent of their "help" typically.

 

[ScrotpusGobbleBottom]

We could probably put a 100% tariff on them, and panels will still be cheaper coming from China or wherever labor is cheap

Right, no one wins and everyone besides the tax man loses.

 

[Dadoftheturkeykids]

They don't want that either unless it can be done for a huge disparity in value, i.e., pay you a couple cents per kWh but charge you 10X.

From my understanding, that is precisely how they handle "grid-tied" consumers. They milk us for our investment. Control over everything.

 

[ScrotpusGobbleBottom]

Control over everything.

Sounds like communism.

 

[ksmithaz1]

Personally I think all import tariffs should be ZERO for any nation that reciprocates. (See Also historical info about the Common Market and EU).

This is the foundation of the "United States", somewhat lost over time, but a primary objective for the creation of the US constitution was to prevent states from creating tariffs on products from other states. Generally this promotes economic growth all the way around, but actually promotes more growth in the areas that can produce more desired output for less money.

Here's the problem (and one of the things Trump was angry about). You sell me your electronic widgets there is no tariff I get cheap stuff. We make really good widget making tools, I can sell them to you with no tariff but you subsidize your tool makers that make inferior products so because you can get locally made tools so much cheaper you don't buy mine even though they aren't as good.

Pick your product lines going back and forth. All countries even ours do this crap but traditionally the US has been a dumping ground for inexpensive foreign products and our products are blocked through various means by those same nations. Food is a biggie. (See also Japan and Rice tariffs).

The point is, it just isn't that simple. NAFTA was not really as awful as Mr Orange intimates, but USMCA is actually better and much more fair for the US. This is actually pretty important, it's one thing to sell your cheap panels to me, but without some reciprocation, you just bleed off wealth from me to you, and yours is the only pot that gets bigger. And no matter what is done, someone is not going to be happy about it. !