Solar Economy, is it healthy?

[HLB]

The overall health of the solar economy affects the availability and pricing of products that DIY people need to practice their trade. It may provide for opportunities.

Here is a Reuters article about SolarEdge Technologies 4th quarter report:

SolarEdge forecasts dour Q4 revenue as demand concerns loom; shares plunge

SolarEdge had trimmed its third-quarter revenue expectations last month due to high inventories and a slowdown in installation which led to substantial cancellations and backlog clearing from its European distributors in the quarter. SolarEdge forecast adjusted gross margin in the range of 5%...

finance.yahoo.com

It says there is slowing demand in Europe for solar products, leading to "high inventories and a slowdown in installation which led to substantial cancellations and backlog clearing".

There is also a note that "...in the United States, higher interest rates and a metering reform in California...have dented demand for solar".

I just wonder if that means we can pick up some of that unwanted inventory. I don't know if it will become available on the retail level in force, but maybe we can find warehouses wanting to liquidate their inventory. Perhaps some of you know the inside trading habits of these commercial facilities. Or, maybe it is a blip on the international scale that means nothing.

HLB

 

[upnorthandpersonal]

Expect LFP cells to become cheaper for one. Solar panels are already available at discounted prices. This is after all the intended effect of high interest rates to combat inflation: bring consumption/demand down, and that in turn also leads to existing stock getting a discount.

 

[Solarcabin Channel]

US solar installations expected to jump 52% to nearly 32 GW in 2023: SEIA​

The industry outperformed SEIA’s March forecast, which predicted the best case scenario would see 2023 installations grow to 28.4 GW.

US solar installations expected to jump 52% to nearly 32 GW in 2023: SEIA

The industry is outperforming SEIA’s March forecast, which predicted the best case scenario would see 2023 installations grow to 28.4 GW.

www.utilitydive.com

Wind power has seen a significant decline especially in off shore installations and some major projects cancelled in the US due to rising interest rates.

Commercially installed home systems are growing by about 9% in the US but that doesn't take in to account all the DIY and off grid installations.

Better and cheaper batteries and tax incentives for off grid are creating more demand,

 

[BuffaloTrace]

I chat quickly, but regularly with a couple of local installers and what they've told me mirrors the article. I'm on california. The slowdown is real.
Prices come down as interest rates have gone up. That being said, the federal subsidies and incentives are still around. This will put a defacto floor on prices for the wider market and the group of people taking advantage of those subsidies.
Perhaps a wider use of smaller systems by more people using the subsidies will happen...just speculation.

 

[Subdood]

You can get two 5kwh lifepo4 server rack batts from Sungold Power now for about $2400, they were $3200. Sig Solar has their Lifepower4 48v batts on sale for $1360. Both vendors are doing free shipping, altho SS's free shipping ends Sunday. They also have some pretty good prices on solar panels.

So, I'm guessing these prices and free shipping deals are because of lower demand. But, you just wonder when the deals will end. I'm itching to get a couple server rack batts, but don't want to wait too long.

The consumer supposedly has less savings now than a year ago, so maybe folks just can't afford things like solar power right now.

 

[Brett V]

The consumer supposedly has less savings now than a year ago, so maybe folks just can't afford things like solar power right now.

I think people are struggling to buy food and pay their bills. The inflation numbers published by the administration are made to appear artificially low for political reasons. Things like solar and home repairs take a back seat to feeding the kids.

 

[HLB]

Expect LFP cells to become cheaper for one. Solar panels are already available at discounted prices. This is after all the intended effect of high interest rates to combat inflation: bring consumption/demand down, and that in turn also leads to existing stock getting a discount.

I hope that I can get some of those discounted batteries. Nothing like having the reserve capacity.

HLB

 

[HLB]

US solar installations expected to jump 52% to nearly 32 GW in 2023: SEIA​

The industry outperformed SEIA’s March forecast, which predicted the best case scenario would see 2023 installations grow to 28.4 GW.

US solar installations expected to jump 52% to nearly 32 GW in 2023: SEIA

The industry is outperforming SEIA’s March forecast, which predicted the best case scenario would see 2023 installations grow to 28.4 GW.

www.utilitydive.com

Wind power has seen a significant decline especially in off shore installations and some major projects cancelled in the US due to rising interest rates.

Commercially installed home systems are growing by about 9% in the US but that doesn't take in to account all the DIY and off grid installations.

Better and cheaper batteries and tax incentives for off grid are creating more demand,

I don't know what happened to demand in Europe. If we are doing well here in the United States then development can just shift from one region to another.

HLB

 

[HLB]

I chat quickly, but regularly with a couple of local installers and what they've told me mirrors the article. I'm on california. The slowdown is real.
Prices come down as interest rates have gone up. That being said, the federal subsidies and incentives are still around. This will put a defacto floor on prices for the wider market and the group of people taking advantage of those subsidies.
Perhaps a wider use of smaller systems by more people using the subsidies will happen...just speculation.

Good to have information from local people. I was reading about the microinverters and how they will make installations easier. That could help the smaller system market.

HLB

 

[HLB]

You can get two 5kwh lifepo4 server rack batts from Sungold Power now for about $2400, they were $3200. Sig Solar has their Lifepower4 48v batts on sale for $1360. Both vendors are doing free shipping, altho SS's free shipping ends Sunday. They also have some pretty good prices on solar panels.

So, I'm guessing these prices and free shipping deals are because of lower demand. But, you just wonder when the deals will end. I'm itching to get a couple server rack batts, but don't want to wait too long.

The consumer supposedly has less savings now than a year ago, so maybe folks just can't afford things like solar power right now.

Two things that may help with less money to spend are modular installations and Do It Yourself. With modular, you can do panel strings one at a time, battery packs one at a time, and split phase one split at a time. Just catch one deal at a time. With DIY, you can pay yourself for your work.

HLB

 

[HLB]

I think people are struggling to buy food and pay their bills. The inflation numbers published by the administration are made to appear artificially low for political reasons. Things like solar and home repairs take a back seat to feeding the kids.

Another good cause for modular and DIY installations. Once you get any electricity flowing in the right direction in a high cost area, the savings can be counted and used.

HLB

 

[Brucey]

I hope that I can get some of those discounted batteries. Nothing like having the reserve capacity.

HLB

No reason the rack mounted ones can't get down to $1k.

 

[Subdood]

I think people are struggling to buy food and pay their bills. The inflation numbers published by the administration are made to appear artificially low for political reasons. Things like solar and home repairs take a back seat to feeding the kids.

True. "They" say inflation has been steadily falling over the past year, but things are still too high. Credit card debt is at all time highs, so folks are putting themselves further in debt, maybe just to pay bills. A really sad cycle.

I was out of work year and a half, started applying for jobs over a year ago, but didn't get one until last month. So, paying the bills was top priority, but now that I have some income I'm hoping to add to our system.

 

[chriscappuccio]

signature solar is selling panels at an all-time low price plus just extended their free freight from 10/28 to 11/04 and just might extend it further

i bought three pallets of the canadian solar 400w. wish me luck.

 

[Brucey]

signature solar is selling panels at an all-time low price plus just extended their free freight from 10/28 to 11/04 and just might extend it further

i bought three pallets of the canadian solar 400w. wish me luck.

I'm looking at the Hyundais for around 36 cents per Watt

 

[Subdood]

No reason the rack mounted ones can't get down to $1k.

Do you think the Lifepower4 batts from Sig Solar will drop below their price of $1359? They've been on the market maybe a year and a half, started out at $1500, and they've been sitting at $1359 for months now. Makes me curious as to whether they have too much inventory.

Not really related, but I was curious as to whether they've got a new 6.5kw inverter in the works to replace the EG4 6500. Like a Luxpower version which replaced the EG4 6000.

 

[chriscappuccio]

True. "They" say inflation has been steadily falling over the past year, but things are still too high. Credit card debt is at all time highs, so folks are putting themselves further in debt, maybe just to pay bills. A really sad cycle.

The thing is, the rate of inflation going down doesn't lower prices. That's called deflation!

Any rate of inflation on average means we are still seeing price inflation across most items, not price deflation.

In the case of solar panels, deflation is just how she goes! The velocity of money has slowed way down and solar panels must have slowed way, way down.

Lucky for me I need a shit ton of solar panels.

 

[Subdood]

i bought three pallets of the canadian solar 400w. wish me luck

Aren't those going for about $1600 for ten? I'd love to get some at that price, but I'm needing batteries first, already have 3.6kW of panels running a 6500EX.

Edit: the 390W are going for a bit under $1600/10. The 400W are about $1800/10.

 

[Q-Dog]

Residential solar equipment costs went up coming out of the pandemic, but went back down this past year. Costs for construction materials, wire, electrical panels, and etc. have held their higher prices.

https://www.nrel.gov/news/program/2023/as-pv-market-evolved-in-the-last-year-prices-went-up-prices-went-down.html

 

[OffGridForGood]

I buy cells twice per year, spring and late summer, 16 at a time.
last three orders (18 months) each one has been lower than the last.
Similar trend with PV panels, lower costs over the last year.
I have seen a few news releases showing new solar panel and wafer factories coming on line in Canada and USA - Seems to me Solar Industry is very healthy in general, despite inflation, NEM3, war in Europe/ME taking a bite out of the solar economy lately.