Solar panel advances will see millions go off grid, scientists predict (article)

[Solarcabin Channel]

Millions could abandon electrical grid with new solar panel advance

Solar energy costs have fallen 90 per cent over the last decade, while new discoveries have seen efficiency rates rise

www.independent.co.uk

"More than 30 million homes in Europe could meet all their energy needs using rooftop solar panels alone, according to a new study.

Researchers from the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology in Germany found that more than 50 per cent of Europe’s 41 million freestanding homes could have been self-sufficient in 2020 using just solar and batteries, with this figure expected to rise to 75 per cent by 2050.


Advances with solar technology mean that it will also make it economically viable for a portion of these freestanding single-family homes to abandon the electrical grid altogether in the coming decades."

My opinion: I think this will be the trend for many people going forward and off grid systems with batteries that can replace all or at least a portion of a homes power and be used in a blackout will be more popular than whole house grid tied systems. This will trigger more efficient appliances designed for off grid living.

Your thoughts?

Sources:

70 Million People Gained Energy via Off-Grid Solar Despite COVID – New Report Shows​

A new report shows that the off-grid solar industry continues to grow, with 70 million more people having gained access to electricity through off-grid solar power since 2019. The Off-Grid Solar Market Trends Report 2022: State of The Sector report published today by the World Bank’s Lighting Global, the International Finance Corporation (IFC), GOGLA, Efficiency for Access Coalition, and Open Capital Advisors shows that the off-grid solar industry remained resilient despite the challenges presented by the pandemic. Today, 490 million people are accessing energy through off-grid solar solutions, an 18% increase since 2019.

70 Million People Gained Energy via Off-Grid Solar Despite COVID – New Report Shows - Lighting Global

Amsterdam/Washington DC, 7 October 2022 A new report shows that the off-grid solar industry continues to grow, with 70 million more people having gained access to electricity through off-grid solar power since 2019. The Off-Grid Solar Market Trends Report 2022: State of The Sector report...

www.lightingglobal.org

 

[chrisski]

My opinion: I think this will be the trend for many people going forward and off grid systems with batteries that can replace all or at least a portion of a homes power and be used in a blackout will be more popular than whole house grid tied systems. This will trigger more efficient appliances designed for of grid living.

I think this is overly optimistic and the excerpt from the article written with hope like a popular science article.

Very few people go off grid. At the best, more people will get solar builds on their houses with 140% of their yearly needs.

The cost of items may fall, but the labor to install sure is not. I think my current install is around 25% for equipment, and the rest for design, permitting and labor.

I’d also need a 300 kWh battery to survive two days of bad power. I am getting a 10 kWh battery I expect to run for 2 hours if the power goes out, I use AC, and the sun is not shining.

I also think the per capita electric power consumption is not going down, but rising, especially with the push in the US to do away with fossil fuels.

 

[hwy17]

I don't think we have the copper for ubiquitous adoption of solar and batteries.

 

[Solarcabin Channel]

Very few people go off grid.

Many people in Africa have no grid power to start with.

For them a small system would be a fantastic improvement in the quality of life for their families.

"According to the latest IEA data, the number of people around the world who live without electricity is set to rise by nearly 20 million in 2022, reaching nearly 775 million, the first global increase since the IEA began tracking the numbers 20 years ago."

 

[Brett V]

I think this is overly optimistic and the excerpt from the article written with hope like a popular science article.

That’s the first thing I thought of. This sounds like a Popular Science cover article from the late 60’s

 

[cs1234]

That’s the first thing I thought of. This sounds like a Popular Science cover article from the late 60’s

Those were the days. I long for that sort of optimism.

 

[Solarcabin Channel]

That’s the first thing I thought of. This sounds like a Popular Science cover article from the late 60’s

Well here is another article if you don't like that one:

70 Million People Gained Energy via Off-Grid Solar Despite COVID – New Report Shows​

A new report shows that the off-grid solar industry continues to grow, with 70 million more people having gained access to electricity through off-grid solar power since 2019. The Off-Grid Solar Market Trends Report 2022: State of The Sector report published today by the World Bank’s Lighting Global, the International Finance Corporation (IFC), GOGLA, Efficiency for Access Coalition, and Open Capital Advisors shows that the off-grid solar industry remained resilient despite the challenges presented by the pandemic. Today, 490 million people are accessing energy through off-grid solar solutions, an 18% increase since 2019.

70 Million People Gained Energy via Off-Grid Solar Despite COVID – New Report Shows - Lighting Global

Amsterdam/Washington DC, 7 October 2022 A new report shows that the off-grid solar industry continues to grow, with 70 million more people having gained access to electricity through off-grid solar power since 2019. The Off-Grid Solar Market Trends Report 2022: State of The Sector report...

www.lightingglobal.org

 

[Brett V]

I believe in the 60’s Popular Science predicted each home would have a private cold fusion reactor by now.

 

[OffGridForGood]

Lower costs for PV panels and equipment will not make your roof bigger, point it more southerly than it is already nor reduce the poor solar most of Europe has for the winter months. Ask me how I know.
I enjoy a "Rainbows and Lolly-Pops" story as much as anyone, but remain firmly fixed in reality none the less.

 

[45North]

Lower costs for PV panels and equipment will not make your roof bigger, point it more southerly than it is already nor reduce the poor solar most of Europe has for the winter months. Ask me how I know.
I enjoy a "Rainbows and Lolly-Pops" story as much as anyone, but remain firmly fixed in reality none the less.

I agree and to that I would add snowfall and overcast skies.
Virtually all of Europe (everything north of Lyon France) lies above 45N, which makes for a terribly low sun angle for half the year!

 

[chrisski]

I believe in the 60’s Popular Science predicted each home would have a private cold fusion reactor by now.

The one I remember reading predicted free energy from nuclear fission.

 

[chrisski]

Well here is another article if you don't like that one:

70 Million People Gained Energy via Off-Grid Solar Despite COVID – New Report Shows​

A new report shows that the off-grid solar industry continues to grow, with 70 million more people having gained access to electricity through off-grid solar power since 2019. The Off-Grid Solar Market Trends Report 2022: State of The Sector report published today by the World Bank’s Lighting Global, the International Finance Corporation (IFC), GOGLA, Efficiency for Access Coalition, and Open Capital Advisors shows that the off-grid solar industry remained resilient despite the challenges presented by the pandemic. Today, 490 million people are accessing energy through off-grid solar solutions, an 18% increase since 2019.

70 Million People Gained Energy via Off-Grid Solar Despite COVID – New Report Shows - Lighting Global

Amsterdam/Washington DC, 7 October 2022 A new report shows that the off-grid solar industry continues to grow, with 70 million more people having gained access to electricity through off-grid solar power since 2019. The Off-Grid Solar Market Trends Report 2022: State of The Sector report...

www.lightingglobal.org

Not sure about the accuracy of World Bank data.

I wonder how many kWh per 70 million people got produced. Are most of these people making 100 kWh during the summer to run AC, or are they charging a car battery to run light bulbs overnight?

 

[Solarcabin Channel]

or are they charging a car battery to run light bulbs overnight?

Not everyone has your power needs.

That is the great thing about off grid and DIY solar.

It can be tailored to your needs.

 

[Brett V]

The one I remember reading predicted free energy from nuclear fission.

That was in the September 1970 edition… ?

 

[Solarcabin Channel]

Heating and cooling make up 45-50% of all power consumed in a house.

If homes were built for energy efficiency and smaller, sealed and super insulated and used efficient appliances and using some of the advanced heat pumps they are working on you wouldn't need a large solar array and lots of batteries.

Solar and battery technology is improving rapidly but the home construction and heating and cooling have not caught up yet.

It isn't that off grid systems won't work and people living off grid use those principles to reduce their power use but most homes are just not designed for off grid systems.

 

[houseofancients]

Not everyone has your power needs.

That is the great thing about off grid and DIY solar.

It can be tailored to your needs.

To add...
Most European homes use only 45% the energy of the av. American home, if not less

 

[Solarcabin Channel]

When off grid living started being popular it was pretty much rural folk that couldn't connect to the grid where they lived or a few that decided they didn't want utility payments and wanted a simpler life. I was one of the latter.

Now with the solar and battery technology we have it is completely possible to go off grid anywhere and even run a business while doing it.

I talk to people every day that want help setting up a small off grid system in the city to reduce their power use and for a power emergency if the grid goes down and once they realize how much they can do they usually expand the system and the grid power is more of a back up system.

I think we will see more hybrid systems like that and a small system can be used at a rental property or taken with you when you move or put on an RV and used for powering your house and vacations.

A small system won't power an EV car but it can easily charge Ebikes and those are growing in popularity faster than EV cars.

A 400-800 watt system and batteries or a power station are easy to set up and don't have to go on your roof. Take little space and can be taken with you.

That is not being completely off grid but it is an off grid system that can be used just about anywhere and affordable for more people.

 

[Zwy]

To add...
Most European homes use only 45% the energy of the av. American home, if not less

Usually smaller than the McMansions built here. I love the houses with 10 gables on the roof too, every valley costs money and is more expensive down the road.

If you ask these same people to throw a $1 out the window driving down the road, they would say that's a waste of money......

 

[OffGridForGood]

Most European homes use only 45% the energy of the av. American home, if not less

I suspect most EU energy rates are double N.American rates, making the annual bills similar per home.
Friend of mine in Austria has similar annual cost of all energy to an average home here in Canada.

 

[chrisski]

That was in the September 1970 edition…

I thought it was actually earlier than that. I believe this article was from the late 40’s or early 50’s.

Nice looking back every once in a while to see the predictions from several decades ago where we’d be today.

 

[houseofancients]

I suspect most EU energy rates are double N.American rates, making the annual bills similar per home.
Friend of mine in Austria has similar annual cost of all energy to an average home here in Canada.

That is an understatement..
Currently we are at 40 E/kwh = 46 Usdc/ kwh.
Januari it was 95 Eu/kwh..
So I'd think our bills might be higher..
But less usuage means easier to go hybrid / off grid

 

[OffGridForGood]

I thought it was actually earlier than that. I believe this article was from the late 40’s or early 50’s.

Nice looking back every once in a while to see the predictions from several decades ago where we’d be today.

HEY! sixy years on I am still waiting for my 'George Jetson Lifestyle' - working one hour per day, two days a week, 'driving' my floating aerocar around, getting everything done with the push of a button or by "Rosie" the robot. what the heck happened ?!

 

[Solarcabin Channel]

getting everything done with the push of a button or by "Rosie" the robot.

Hey you can have a robot that vacuums the floor and one that mows your lawn now!

 

[OffGridForGood]

That is an understatement..
Currently we are at 40 E/kwh = 46 Usdc/ kwh.
Januari it was 95 Eu/kwh..
So I'd think our bills might be higher..
But less usuage means easier to go hybrid / off grid

True,
and higher energy costs provide more incentive for people.
California seems to have peak electricity rates similar to your 0.46usd/kwh and that state leads the US with solar installed.
In Canada, we generally have low cost low carbon electricity (hydro-electric, nuclear) - which reduce a person's motivation to go solar, especially with the rules and regs applied. We don't have the IRA (or similar) US-style incentives.
Where I see people motivated to change in Canada is EV's; gasoline is x2 USA prices here, but electricity is cheap, especially 11:00pm to 7:00am. Cities like Montreal and Toronto have a lot of EV's already.

 

[houseofancients]

True,
and higher energy costs provide more incentive for people.
California seems to have peak electricity rates similar to your 0.46usd/kwh and that state leads the US with solar installed.
In Canada, we generally have low cost low carbon electricity (hydro-electric, nuclear) - which reduce a person's motivation to go solar, especially with the rules and regs applied. We don't have the IRA (or similar) US-style incentives.
Where I see people motivated to change in Canada is EV's; gasoline is x2 USA prices here, but electricity is cheap, especially 11:00pm to 7:00am. Cities like Montreal and Toronto have a lot of EV's already.

Lol.. not even get me started on gas price..
Currently a litre costs 1,98 Euro

A gallon is 4.54609 litre..

So we pay about 10 USD PER GALLON