We Live to Fight Another Day. May the odds be ever in your favor.

This one would have hurt.
I'm glad I'm not the only one here that watches Ben's YT channel (and others) to keep an eye on the suns activity. I really enjoy Ben's channel. I'm amazed at the people that have no idea what could happen and have that "look" when I talk about CME's.
 
Brought to mind an article I wrote for a website many years ago -

NatGeo - Doomsday Preppers Series
Episode Air Date: 4/03/12
Topic(s): Concerns were as follows: Dirty Bomb fallout, Conventional nuclear attack, CME and EMP


Prepper #3

This last person in this episode is Jack from Colorado. Jack fears an impending Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) and the accompanying Electro-magnetic Pulse (EMP) as a likely possibility in the near future.

His analysis of the possibilities extending from this event is objective, and although he is just starting out as a prepper, it is evident he has given this some thought.

He has begun to get in shape (a good idea for all of us), and he is not letting his age slow him down too much (Jack is 65).

He is concerned about being cutoff due to the unpredictable nature of CME’s, and carries what he calls a ’72 hour bag’ , what we would term a personal Bugout Bag (BOB). This bag contains what he needs to survive to allow him to walk home if an EMP knocks out his car, and other forms of transportation. It appears he carries a handgun as well, indicating that he has thought out the wider scope of such a disaster.

At home, he has started putting away food and water, and has built a safe room which apparently is his ‘last stand’. He has a shotgun is the safe room, and knives throughout the house, and practices some awareness scenarios, which seem to have helped him coordinate and plan.

He is involved with his community, but it is clear he is not depending upon them for any support himself, unlike some others we have seen. He has correctly interpreted the threat presented by former friends and neighbors, and is prepared to deal with it.


NatGeo’s assessment was very deceptive here, and bears close examination. The disclaimer they presented from NASA was typical diplo-speak, and was quite revealing if we look at the choice made in the way it was presented.

Basically, they said that there was only a 12% chance of such an event happening in the next decade, and that such an event would not present a threat to life on earth.

Well, maybe they think we are dummies. The fact is, the Sun goes through what is called the sunspot cycle, which peaks every 11 years. Ask any trucker when the peak is, and he will tell you, because the static and noise on the CB radios increases dramatically near the peak. Likewise, the Sun throws us these CME’s during the peak activity of its cycle. NASA’s own reports anticipate an unusually violent peak to this coming sunspot cycle, which, by the way peaks in late 2012 and into early 2013.

I will not point out the similarities between NASA’s predictions and the Web Bot theory, or the Mayans, or Novelty Theory, you can read about those on another page in this site, instead think about this, the cycle is eleven years long, and the peak begins this coming winter. NASA used the term ‘decade’, ten years.

So what they are saying is really this, there is a 12% chance of a major CME occurring by the end of this year. You see, in the next ten years, after this winter, sunspot activity will be declining. The next peak is 2023, past the magical ‘ten year’ mark NASA is setting.

Now, look at the choice of presentation. NASA uses a percentage. Why?

Because 12% looks and sounds like a minimal amount compared to the same percentage said another way, one-in-eight!

That’s right, NASA is on record admitting that the chance of a major CME in the next year is one in eight. I would play those odds all day!

What if they told you there was a one in eight chance of an asteroid hitting the earth in a year? In eight years, (or less), we would be hit. Chances are 50/50 we would be hit in 4!

But, not to worry, NASA says that it will not present a threat to life on earth. Well, what are they saying here? Simply that we will not be killed solely because of the CME. What they are NOT saying is that there will be no cars, no planes, no phones, no electricity, no water, no food, and total and complete mass panic. But that is the fallout from the event they say will happen with a one-in-eight chance.

Like I said at the start, Jack did his homework.

Observations:

I will cut Jack some slack here because he is just starting out, and also because he has made such rapid progress in two years. Continuing at this rate, he stands a chance, although there are some issues.

Fortunately his wife has come around, (see preppers dilemma page), and she is able to assist. I almost gave Jack a thumbs up, which as you know is rare for me, but he is just not there yet. There is really one basic issue he doesn’t seem to have a plan for.

Jacks safe room is a great idea, and if it is well stocked, and well defended, may hold up for awhile. I could not help but notice that although the door looked plenty sturdy, one could simply kick the sheetrock in on the sides of the door, and walk right through the wall. There would need to be steel panels bolted to the inside walls to prevent this.

His only defense in the safe room was a shotgun, which was a good choice, but two people in there need two guns. His wife must learn to shoot as well. Secondly, there is no escape from there, which brings me to my beef with his plan.

Jack has no operational Plan B. he states himself that he will make his last stand in the safe room.

Survivors are survivors because they know when to run. Jack needs a plan to get outside the home and to a safe location.

Jack must join up with a group like the APN and plan a way out of Dodge. Only then does he stand a chance as a survivor.

This site is devoted to that one missing or unavailable plan that many of us do not have – The Plan B escape.



Preparation to meet the specific perceived threat - (thumbs up)

Preparation against any threats arising from the perceived threat - (thumbs down)

Food & Water Preparation - (thumbs up)

Shelter Preparation - (thumbs up)

Plan B Preparation - (thumbs down)
 
There are more than enough problems in the world today.
I find it best not to worry about things that I have absolutely no control over and may not even happen in my lifetime.
And yes I monitor space weather a few times every week because of it's value in making contacts using my Ham radio gear.
 
A buddy of mine would always refer to his wife as TOWMBO. I just let it go for a long time, but I finally asked him...

The One Who Must Be Obeyed.
I love this. My TOWMBO is currently soaking in a natural hot spring in 16-degree weather. For anyone that tough, obeisance is deserved!
 
This one would have hurt.
Between an EMP or a CME the odds are in mother nature's favor. The current 11 Year Solar Cycle is about to peak, we may just find out. It has happened in the past and will happen again.

X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: Earth-orbiting satellites have just detected a strong X1.8-class solar flare (Feb. 21 @ 2307 UT). The source is giant sunspot AR3590. Extreme ultraviolet radiation from the flare caused a shortwave radio blackout over the western USA and Pacific Ocean. Stay tuned for information about a possible Earth-directed CME.​


In a CME the grid & transformers are destroyed by a large DC voltage induced by the miles of conductors on the poles. As the magnetic waves pass the conductors they induce the DC current. Take an Alternating current device like a transformer and apply thousands of volts & amps DC to it and it will burn. Surge & RF arrestors with a fast reacting sacrificial link/fuse are the only things that will save such devices. Something has to give.

Electromagnetic Pulse and Geomagnetic Disturbance (.gov)
 
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There are more than enough problems in the world today.
I find it best not to worry about things that I have absolutely no control over and may not even happen in my lifetime.
And yes I monitor space weather a few times every week because of it's value in making contacts using my Ham radio gear.
Are you maybe... just a tid bit... concerned yet?
 
Are you maybe... just a tid bit... concerned yet?
It's all a bit over my head but I would say the outages were more than likely from a cyber attack / hack of some sort.
Apparently only the US was affected...

I have been paying a fair amount of attention to discussions in the space weather forum, most of the time I feel like I'm reading posts from some of the experts here 😂.
I've seen suspiciousobservers mentioned there as more of a fear mongering channel.

This one talks about the recent issue.

From what I gather region 3950 is active and there are at least 2 more incoming regions that should be interesting.
 
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