robby
Photon Vampire
- Joined
- May 1, 2021
- Messages
- 4,306
I already did. The X6.3 Flare had no CME so it was never a Danger!Perhaps you can point out some of the half truths to support your friendly advice.
I already did. The X6.3 Flare had no CME so it was never a Danger!Perhaps you can point out some of the half truths to support your friendly advice.
You mean reports like this:And yet it did cause disruptions which are still being reported.
Because you don't follow this stuff regularly over decades of time then you probably don't know that Solar Activity Knocks out Radio Communications all the time. We have had several radio blackouts over the last 12 months but they only affect certain portions of the Radio Bands.A fiery flash on the sun's surface 93m miles away that knocked out some radio communication on Earth for a short time on Thursday
Which was stated verbatim. So where is the half truth? What do you define as danger?I already did. The X6.3 Flare had no CME so it was never a Danger!
The fact that the Video used an X6.3 Flare as the Starting point when it knew it had no CME was a clear indicator that he is baiting you to watch it. This was not news worthy!Which was stated verbatim. So where is the half truth? What do you define as danger?
EMS communications in AZ went down as well. Nasa lost contact with the Odysseus craft as it was touching down. Nothing to see here. Move along.![]()
That was likely due to the FirstNet /att outage.EMS communications in AZ went down as well.
No idea what caused that, I would expect the flares could have had an impact?Nasa lost contact with the Odysseus craft as it was touching down. Nothing to see here. Move along.![]()
You are partially correct. I have had only mild interest in space weather since 2013 or so. *I am aware of regular radio disruptions.* Understanding how much exponential loss has occurred in the earth's geomagnetic field has my attention. I'm sure you understand the weaker our protection from the sun, the more effect mild flares and CMEs has. Is this something you have been aware of for decades as well?Because you don't follow this stuff regularly over decades of time then you probably don't know that Solar Activity Knocks out Radio Communications all the time.
You may be right about that but we have no idea what is really happening with the Earths Magnetic field. All we know is that Animal and Plant life on the Planet seems to have survived multiple pole flipping events without a die off event.You are partially correct. I have had only mild interest in space weather since 2013 or so. *I am aware of regular radio disruptions.* Understanding how much exponential loss has occurred in the earth's geomagnetic field has my attention. I'm sure you understand the weaker our protection from the sun, the more effect mild flares and CMEs has. Is this something you have been aware of for decades as well?
...Climate change enters the chat.Humans are very skilled at getting ourselves out of problems when our butts are on the line!
????...Climate change enters the chat.
Somewhat disagree with "Humans are very skilled at getting ourselves out of problems when our butts are on the line!"????
This is from 'Nature'. One of the top two prestigious Science Journals in the world. Take it for what it's worth. It won't end life on earth. Just most life that depends on electricity.You may be right about that but we have no idea what is really happening with the Earths Magnetic field. All we know is that Animal and Plant life on the Planet seems to have survived multiple pole flipping events without a die off event.
As for computers, satellites, power lines, etc. we will adapt if it starts to become a long term problem.
Humans are very skilled at getting ourselves out of problems when our butts are on the line!
Where does it say that "most life that depends on electricity will end"?This is from 'Nature'. One of the top two prestigious Science Journals in the world. Take it for what it's worth. It won't end life on earth. Just most life that depends on electricity.
https://www.sciencealert.com/new-st...eld-is-weakening-more-rapidly-than-we-thought
I think it is fairly certain that the field never completely collapses. That would irradiated everything and kill it.We don't even know if the Magnetic field goes out at any point in the Flip. All evidence so far seems to point to a weakening field that drifts around towards the West. Who knows, it may just drift West until
HEMP.What is Starfish Prime (EMP)?
Doomsday nutcases don’t understand or care.It's still not clear to me if personal solar installations would be affected by a CME/majore solar flare. The main issue I have always seen mentioned is with very long conductive paths such as electrical lines (at least miles long) in areas that don't have good ground conductivity. I still haven't seen any evidence that short lines to a solar panel would be affected that much and there is a lot of hype around this. Furthermore there are studies that show many parts of the USA have very conductive subsurface (see image below from that study) so the affects would be minimal even for electric lines.
View attachment 199231
Nor is it clear to anyone else. Offgrid systems are much safer than gridtied.It's still not clear to me if personal solar installations would be affected by a CME/majore solar flare.
It is not speculative on how conductive the ground is in different areas.The study you posted is interesting. While it focuses on potential 100yr events, there is only 31 yrs of data to rely on, thus it is entirely speculative.
I don't claim to fully understand the depth of this study. The number of times 'estimate' and other words are used in that section makes me doubt the certainty.It is not speculative on how conductive the ground is in different areas.
Here, we do not simulate or model an individual extreme event, but rather, we statistically extrapolate data to an extreme event based on long time series of historical events using the methods described earlier. For this analysis, we follow the same bootstrap with replacement (Efron & Tibshirani, 1994) procedure outlined in Love et al. (2017). The extreme values we present are the median values from a 100-sample bootstrap analysis. The bootstrap samples also provide a 95% confidence interval for each magnetotelluric survey site centered around the median, m, with an average confidence interval over all survey sites of [0.74 m, m, 1.37 m]. The confidence interval for the magnetotelluric sites is again less than a factor of 2, which is much smaller than the site-to-site variability in extreme values.
Figure 8 shows the estimated once-per-century values of the geoelectric field at the 1,079 magnetotelluric sites spread across the United States. Regional investigations close to geomagnetic observatories have previously shown the large influence that geology plays in determining geoelectric hazards in small regions (e.g., Love et al., 2017; Love, Lucas, Bedrosian, et al., 2018; Love, Lucas, Kelbert, et al., 2018). We now expand that view to the entire United States and can see how variable the geoelectric hazards are across the nation.
The largest estimated once-per-century geoelectric field is 27.2 V/km at a site located in Maine (MEE62), while the lowest estimated once-per-century geoelectric field is 0.02 V/km at a site located in Idaho (IDK15). That is more than 3 orders of magnitude variation in geoelectric field that spans the entire country. Across the upper two thirds of the United States that has been surveyed, estimated geoelectric fields for a once-per-century geomagnetic storm are predicted to exceed 1 V/km at 322 of the 1079 magnetotelluric sites, nearly 30% of the surveyed land area in the United States.