dholbrookp
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![time.com](https://api.time.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/End-of-rooftop-solar-illo.jpg?quality=85)
Residential Solar Is In Trouble
Complicated financial products helped the U.S. rooftop-solar-power industry grow, but now put it at risk of implosion.
I believe solar sales is way dirtier than used car sales and I hope the hammer comes down on all the shady companies and practices.I have been practicing consumer law for over a decade, and I’ve never seen anything like what we are seeing in the solar industry right now
It also means the future of battery storage is bright, unless they kill that too with regulationsAs the article above notes, many states are changing their net metering rules, often at the request of for-profit power corporations. These net metering changes are reducing or eliminating the economic advantages of rooftop solar. In California, for example, rooftop solar installations supposedly are down between 70% and 80% since the state's Public Utilities Commission drastically reduced credits earned through the net metering program. https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2023/12...ies-are-high-risk-more-bankruptcy-on-the-way/ California and other states are currently considering additional rate setting changes that will further reduce or totally eliminate the economic benefit of rooftop solar for most households. So yes, the future of rooftop solar is dim in much of America, but I think the main reason for this is that the power companies simply don't want the competition.
Sorry but I felt this deserves a comment. Going from a regulatory and tax subsidized era that forced power companies to accept home generated solar to a neutral stance is not the same thing as wanting to avoid competition. It might upset the individual producer to realize that their ability to sell to the electrical company is now on the same level as other wholesalers but why should they get special status?... So yes, the future of rooftop solar is dim in much of America, but I think the main reason for this is that the power companies simply don't want the competition.
Sorry but I felt this deserves a comment. Going from a regulatory and tax subsidized era that forced power companies to accept home generated solar to a neutral stance is not the same thing as wanting to avoid competition. It might upset the individual producer to realize that their ability to sell to the electrical company is now on the same level as other wholesalers but why should they get special status?
I am sure the power company is happy to buy residential solar power at a rate they can make money selling it to their customers at. That means the roof top solar must compete with other producers.
It is not in my location more economical for me to generate solar power than simply buying kWh from the Co-Op. I expect this is true in a lot of the country. Without the grid acting as a huge battery for the grid tie folks they would also find it to be uneconomical. That may change as battery prices drop and equipment to allow it becomes more common.... Putting more regulations and "tarrifs" on home power generation cannot stop the fact that it is already more economical to generate your own power than to buy it from the PoCo over the long run,...
100%Sorry but I felt this deserves a comment. Going from a regulatory and tax subsidized era that forced power companies to accept home generated solar to a neutral stance is not the same thing as wanting to avoid competition. It might upset the individual producer to realize that their ability to sell to the electrical company is now on the same level as other wholesalers but why should they get special status?
I am sure the power company is happy to buy residential solar power at a rate they can make money selling it to their customers at. That means the roof top solar must compete with other producers.
I believe the requirement has been solar + storage for a few years.In California, new homes are required to have PV installed. Turnkey install costs $0.10/kWh amortized over 20 years.
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In the short run, PoCos can't be expected to buy power from customers at a rate that is unprofitable for long. But killing net metering is not the only way to solve this. Many PoCo do net metering but with limits (you can only sell back up to what you will later use within some timeframe, or to some predefined maximum). Killing net metering will (actually is already) having unintended consequences such as pushing people to put in systems that supply all their own power, allowing them to stop using the grid almost entirely (eliminating them as a customer in effect). Putting more regulations and "tarrifs" on home power generation cannot stop the fact that it is already more economical to generate your own power than to buy it from the PoCo over the long run, and seems destined to be more so in the future. Anymore than the added charges Ma Bell put in place for folks that wanted to use their own phones or alternative long distance carriers allowed their business model to remain viable back in that day
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The PoCos can either see what's going on, and modify their business model in a way that aligns with the new realities, or go down with their "sinking ship".
The utilities attempted to get a photon tax implemented in California. That would have been a monthly fee for solar panels installed. It worked out to about $0.08/kWh, whether you use the power or exported to the grid. As first proposed, the photon tax would have exceeded the backfeed credit, meaning consumers pay the utility for exporting power. It was not adopted this time. Other states already have a photon tax.
As of April 2023 NEM3.0 was introduced. That basically means you need storage to get an ROI < 30 years.I believe the requirement has been solar + storage for a few years.
I believe the requirement has been solar + storage for a few years.
I was referring to Title 24 not NEM3, but I need to check what title 24 says. I’m basing on a discussion I had with a developer a while back that had to put in storage for their new construction in LAAs of April 2023 NEM3.0 was introduced. That basically means you need storage to get an ROI < 30 years.
Damn right… ranks right there with RV sales and Timeshare sale…..I see so many people I know getting hammered by installer/ sales people….and online sites too.I believe solar sales is way dirtier than used car sales and I hope the hammer comes down on all the shady companies and practices.
I stand corrected on single family (learned about it while talking to a duplex builder)."In addition to the commercial requirements, new residential construction must also be battery ready. This requires that new homes have a 225-amp busbar, four backed-up circuits (two of which must be the refrigerator and bedroom receptacle outlet), and also a subpanel or a split-bus main panel for those circuits."
My understanding is they are already doing some of this in California.What begins as an incentive usually morphs into a requirement over time. Solar was launched with pretty good incentives for buyback, but it is currently being reduced, and will eventually (maybe quite soon) become required to build into all housing with no incentives at all, but the amount required will not be enough to maintain an "off the grid" lifestyle, as they still need to sell power, but if their cost is zero (you are providing it) then it can still be sold at a profit. The requirements would have to provide for no storage though, just a grid-tied system only, or restrictions on the AIO's that prevent you from turning off the supply to the grid any time. Both could happen, the power companies hold alot of pull when it comes to legislation and regulation. Just my opinion, although I must add, I do believe there will be a significant pull back on solar starting next year, for entirely different reasons.
My neighbor built a new guest house on their property, got approval in January 2023 for enphase grid tie system only. No batteries needed.I was referring to Title 24 not NEM3, but I need to check what title 24 says. I’m basing on a discussion I had with a developer a while back that had to put in storage for their new construction in LA