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LFP for EV's projected to be less than $56 per kWh within 6 months

Will Prowse

Will Prowse

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EV LFP Battery Price War at Less Than $56 per kWh Within Six Months | NextBigFuture.com

CATL has new rectangular LFP batteries. The LFP EV battery price will be less than $56 per kWh within six months. It is a bigger rectangular battery with each
www.nextbigfuture.com www.nextbigfuture.com

I hope we see some of these price decreases for stationary storage LFP!

But check out the comments. An individual shared this opinion:

Alexthinks
January 16, 2024 at 10:12 pm
This is not good news. The reason for the price war is a global slowdown in EV adoption. Now, battery makers have so much overcapacity they are slashing prices in a race to avoid bankruptcy. How many companies have already invested billions and billions of dollars in half finished factories and battery lines that will not be needed? This will put an instant halt to any new battery factories being built or new capacity going online. This is going to financially crush every company that has made huge investments in battery factories. All the small players will go bankrupt, the larger ones will have massive write-downs that will crush their stock price. Forget about gaining market share in a global price war, with the gigantic investments that have been committed to, companies will be simply fighting to survive the impending cash crunch. As always, Brian, I love your research. It’s time to start calculating who’s the most at risk and then short their stock.
 
Hard to say how it will affect storage prices.
If they are forced to slash their prices to bare minimum for EV's. We may be held to the same prices. But then again, we aren't buying EV quality cells. Although, less production means less failures available to us.
Time will tell.
 
IMG_1479.jpeg

It’s encouraging but this snippet from the article proves to me that even with price decreases, our cost will still be much higher.
I paid much more than $70/kwh and I paid far less than most.
 
That's great news. The article seemed very dramatic. It could be that price drops are a result of efficiency and cost reductions in production. I remain optimistic. The real good news would be related to somehow increasing the energy density of LFP batteries.
 
G00SE said:
View attachment 189537

It’s encouraging but this snippet from the article proves to me that even with price decreases, our cost will still be much higher.
I paid much more than $70/kwh and I paid far less than most.
Click to expand...
If we take a 304Ah cell as a 1kWh equivalent unit, China pricing of $70 is ending up at $109 in the US.

If China pricing goes to $45 then a US price of $74 certainly seems possible.

US is giving billions for US battery factories, this "free money" must be destabilizing for the Chinese market even if US factory output won't be coming online for years.
 
Being forced to lower prices does not necessarily mean things are falling over. One of the big drawbacks to EV is the cost of the cells, doubling the production costs of the vehicle. Demand will increase for electrics if the capital expendatures can come down. I think this will be especially true in the local delivery vehicle market in US regions where it makes sense.

Two ways to make money. . . Volume or margin. I think the high end/EV battery industry has been rolling more towards the latter for some time, it's been profitable not to run at scale. Tesla's big factories, and these Chinese outfits are starting to scale, which simply causes consolidation and a push for volume to reduce the overhead and dropping margins at the same time. The smaller guys will just get knocked out, it's not a bad thing unless there are not enough bigger players that can absorb the short term / consolidation losses.
 
Yes the main cost component of an EV drops in half and yet sales expected to continue dropping?
Actually I don't see EV sales dropping at all.... maybe production has been a bit aggressive for some models sitting on the lot but sales continue up.
Tesla is again making price cuts.

Or in lieu of lower price we may get some larger batteries and more range to combat the perception of anticipated range anxiety.
 
I hope the EVE 560's arrive in the US in the midst of falling prices.

Edit: Docan has an alibaba listing now.

New Released Lithium Power Evelf560k 12000cycle 3.2v Prismatic Lifepo4 560 560k Lfp Lithium Ion Batteries - Buy Storages Power Solar Lifepo4 Battery 280ah Lifepo4 Solar Lithium Ion Battery Power Product on Alibaba.com

New Released Lithium Power Evelf560k 12000cycle 3.2v Prismatic Lifepo4 560 560k Lfp Lithium Ion Batteries - Buy Storages Power Solar Lifepo4 Battery 280ah Lifepo4 Solar Lithium Ion Battery Power Product on Alibaba.com
www.alibaba.com
 
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Well, I have been wishing to have 200 kWh of storage. Maybe by 2025, I can dollar cost average down my total capacity. Then I won't feel sick when I calculate my sunk costs!!!
 
hwy17 said:
I hope the EVE 560's arrive in the US in the midst of falling prices.

Edit: Docan has an alibaba listing now.

New Released Lithium Power Evelf560k 12000cycle 3.2v Prismatic Lifepo4 560 560k Lfp Lithium Ion Batteries - Buy Storages Power Solar Lifepo4 Battery 280ah Lifepo4 Solar Lithium Ion Battery Power Product on Alibaba.com

New Released Lithium Power Evelf560k 12000cycle 3.2v Prismatic Lifepo4 560 560k Lfp Lithium Ion Batteries - Buy Storages Power Solar Lifepo4 Battery 280ah Lifepo4 Solar Lithium Ion Battery Power Product on Alibaba.com
www.alibaba.com
Click to expand...
They lie...
diysolarforum.com

EVE LF560K - Who wants to gamble?

Edit - to good to be true. ... If it seems to good to be true... https://x.alibaba.com/Av9WsU
diysolarforum.com diysolarforum.com
 
hwy17 said:
I hope the EVE 560's arrive in the US in the midst of falling prices.

Edit: Docan has an alibaba listing now.

New Released Lithium Power Evelf560k 12000cycle 3.2v Prismatic Lifepo4 560 560k Lfp Lithium Ion Batteries - Buy Storages Power Solar Lifepo4 Battery 280ah Lifepo4 Solar Lithium Ion Battery Power Product on Alibaba.com

New Released Lithium Power Evelf560k 12000cycle 3.2v Prismatic Lifepo4 560 560k Lfp Lithium Ion Batteries - Buy Storages Power Solar Lifepo4 Battery 280ah Lifepo4 Solar Lithium Ion Battery Power Product on Alibaba.com
www.alibaba.com
Click to expand...
At $120./cell a 16s battery would be $67./kwh plus whatever it costs to have them shipped. Is anyone ordering these? What is the shipping cost?
 
AntronX said:
It's been all over the news.
Click to expand...
Yes from your search....

Sales data cited by Heatmap actually show that "sales of battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles in the third quarter of 2023 exhibited the strongest year-on-year growth since the fourth quarter of 2021." The outlet also noted that sales of EVs topped one million for the first time ever this September.Dec 10, 2023
 
AntronX said:
It's been all over the news.
Click to expand...
Working for a Tier 1 Auto supplier, it's not just EV sales that are dropping... We've been seeing this coming since Q2 of last year.
I cut an entire shift out of my department at the start of the new year (no one lost their job and everyone is happy) and will be starting layoffs on the other 2 next week...
The EV projections are significantly lower than initially forecast, sales in general are lower...

I really hope prices drop, I'll have no problem tripling my current ~37 KWh.

With the way things are going in the world I feel like having a large energy reserve as well as other things is a very wise idea.
 
time2roll said:
Yes the main cost component of an EV drops in half and yet sales expected to continue dropping?
Actually I don't see EV sales dropping at all.... maybe production has been a bit aggressive for some models sitting on the lot but sales continue up.
Tesla is again making price cuts.

Or in lieu of lower price we may get some larger batteries and more range to combat the perception of anticipated range anxiety.
Click to expand...
IF ev sales are faltering I’d blame the manufacturers for predominantly offering 60k vehicles and not something for the entry level buyer
 
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