LFP for EV's projected to be less than $56 per kWh within 6 months

[Will Prowse]

EV LFP Battery Price War at Less Than $56 per kWh Within Six Months | NextBigFuture.com

CATL has new rectangular LFP batteries. The LFP EV battery price will be less than $56 per kWh within six months. It is a bigger rectangular battery with each

www.nextbigfuture.com

I hope we see some of these price decreases for stationary storage LFP!

But check out the comments. An individual shared this opinion:

Alexthinks
January 16, 2024 at 10:12 pm
This is not good news. The reason for the price war is a global slowdown in EV adoption. Now, battery makers have so much overcapacity they are slashing prices in a race to avoid bankruptcy. How many companies have already invested billions and billions of dollars in half finished factories and battery lines that will not be needed? This will put an instant halt to any new battery factories being built or new capacity going online. This is going to financially crush every company that has made huge investments in battery factories. All the small players will go bankrupt, the larger ones will have massive write-downs that will crush their stock price. Forget about gaining market share in a global price war, with the gigantic investments that have been committed to, companies will be simply fighting to survive the impending cash crunch. As always, Brian, I love your research. It’s time to start calculating who’s the most at risk and then short their stock.

 

[Quattrohead]

Governments are hell-bent on EV's so I don't see the supply and demand slowing down that much.

 

[timselectric]

Hard to say how it will affect storage prices.
If they are forced to slash their prices to bare minimum for EV's. We may be held to the same prices. But then again, we aren't buying EV quality cells. Although, less production means less failures available to us.
Time will tell.

 

[G00SE]

It’s encouraging but this snippet from the article proves to me that even with price decreases, our cost will still be much higher.
I paid much more than $70/kwh and I paid far less than most.

 

[AntronX]

Leapmotor's Cao even believes that the price of battery cells could drop to RMB 0.32/Wh ($45/kWh).

Looks like 2024 will bring even lower battery prices. Expect grade A 280Ah cells to retail for $75 in USA.

 

[OffgridMatty]

That's great news. The article seemed very dramatic. It could be that price drops are a result of efficiency and cost reductions in production. I remain optimistic. The real good news would be related to somehow increasing the energy density of LFP batteries.

 

[Brucey]

View attachment 189537

It’s encouraging but this snippet from the article proves to me that even with price decreases, our cost will still be much higher.
I paid much more than $70/kwh and I paid far less than most.

If we take a 304Ah cell as a 1kWh equivalent unit, China pricing of $70 is ending up at $109 in the US.

If China pricing goes to $45 then a US price of $74 certainly seems possible.

US is giving billions for US battery factories, this "free money" must be destabilizing for the Chinese market even if US factory output won't be coming online for years.

 

[ksmithaz1]

Being forced to lower prices does not necessarily mean things are falling over. One of the big drawbacks to EV is the cost of the cells, doubling the production costs of the vehicle. Demand will increase for electrics if the capital expendatures can come down. I think this will be especially true in the local delivery vehicle market in US regions where it makes sense.

Two ways to make money. . . Volume or margin. I think the high end/EV battery industry has been rolling more towards the latter for some time, it's been profitable not to run at scale. Tesla's big factories, and these Chinese outfits are starting to scale, which simply causes consolidation and a push for volume to reduce the overhead and dropping margins at the same time. The smaller guys will just get knocked out, it's not a bad thing unless there are not enough bigger players that can absorb the short term / consolidation losses.

 

[time2roll]

Yes the main cost component of an EV drops in half and yet sales expected to continue dropping?
Actually I don't see EV sales dropping at all.... maybe production has been a bit aggressive for some models sitting on the lot but sales continue up.
Tesla is again making price cuts.

Or in lieu of lower price we may get some larger batteries and more range to combat the perception of anticipated range anxiety.

 

[hwy17]

I hope the EVE 560's arrive in the US in the midst of falling prices.

Edit: Docan has an alibaba listing now.

New Released Lithium Power Evelf560k 12000cycle 3.2v Prismatic Lifepo4 560 560k Lfp Lithium Ion Batteries - Buy Storages Power Solar Lifepo4 Battery 280ah Lifepo4 Solar Lithium Ion Battery Power Product on Alibaba.com

New Released Lithium Power Evelf560k 12000cycle 3.2v Prismatic Lifepo4 560 560k Lfp Lithium Ion Batteries - Buy Storages Power Solar Lifepo4 Battery 280ah Lifepo4 Solar Lithium Ion Battery Power Product on Alibaba.com

www.alibaba.com

 

[AntronX]

Actually I don't see EV sales dropping at all...

It's been all over the news.

 

[Skinny76]

Well, I have been wishing to have 200 kWh of storage. Maybe by 2025, I can dollar cost average down my total capacity. Then I won't feel sick when I calculate my sunk costs!!!

 

[42OhmsPA]

I hope the EVE 560's arrive in the US in the midst of falling prices.

Edit: Docan has an alibaba listing now.

New Released Lithium Power Evelf560k 12000cycle 3.2v Prismatic Lifepo4 560 560k Lfp Lithium Ion Batteries - Buy Storages Power Solar Lifepo4 Battery 280ah Lifepo4 Solar Lithium Ion Battery Power Product on Alibaba.com

New Released Lithium Power Evelf560k 12000cycle 3.2v Prismatic Lifepo4 560 560k Lfp Lithium Ion Batteries - Buy Storages Power Solar Lifepo4 Battery 280ah Lifepo4 Solar Lithium Ion Battery Power Product on Alibaba.com

www.alibaba.com

They lie...

EVE LF560K - Who wants to gamble?

Edit - to good to be true. ... If it seems to good to be true... https://x.alibaba.com/Av9WsU

diysolarforum.com

 

[green mountain boys]

I hope the EVE 560's arrive in the US in the midst of falling prices.

Edit: Docan has an alibaba listing now.

New Released Lithium Power Evelf560k 12000cycle 3.2v Prismatic Lifepo4 560 560k Lfp Lithium Ion Batteries - Buy Storages Power Solar Lifepo4 Battery 280ah Lifepo4 Solar Lithium Ion Battery Power Product on Alibaba.com

New Released Lithium Power Evelf560k 12000cycle 3.2v Prismatic Lifepo4 560 560k Lfp Lithium Ion Batteries - Buy Storages Power Solar Lifepo4 Battery 280ah Lifepo4 Solar Lithium Ion Battery Power Product on Alibaba.com

www.alibaba.com

At $120./cell a 16s battery would be $67./kwh plus whatever it costs to have them shipped. Is anyone ordering these? What is the shipping cost?

 

[ChrisG]

My cart full of 304s at 18650batterystore is making my itchy. Have to pull back the reigns.

 

[time2roll]

It's been all over the news.

Yes from your search....

Sales data cited by Heatmap actually show that "sales of battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles in the third quarter of 2023 exhibited the strongest year-on-year growth since the fourth quarter of 2021." The outlet also noted that sales of EVs topped one million for the first time ever this September.Dec 10, 2023

 

[timselectric]

My cart full of 304s at 18650batterystore is making my itchy. Have to pull back the reigns.

I'm guessing that you haven't noticed that they are currently sold out.

 

[42OhmsPA]

It's been all over the news.

Working for a Tier 1 Auto supplier, it's not just EV sales that are dropping... We've been seeing this coming since Q2 of last year.
I cut an entire shift out of my department at the start of the new year (no one lost their job and everyone is happy) and will be starting layoffs on the other 2 next week...
The EV projections are significantly lower than initially forecast, sales in general are lower...

I really hope prices drop, I'll have no problem tripling my current ~37 KWh.

With the way things are going in the world I feel like having a large energy reserve as well as other things is a very wise idea.

 

[G00SE]

Yes the main cost component of an EV drops in half and yet sales expected to continue dropping?
Actually I don't see EV sales dropping at all.... maybe production has been a bit aggressive for some models sitting on the lot but sales continue up.
Tesla is again making price cuts.

Or in lieu of lower price we may get some larger batteries and more range to combat the perception of anticipated range anxiety.

IF ev sales are faltering I’d blame the manufacturers for predominantly offering 60k vehicles and not something for the entry level buyer

 

[ChrisG]

I'm guessing that you haven't noticed that they are currently sold out.

Well, SHIT.

 

[marionw]

Two new factories announced Wednesday in South Carolina will continue the expansion of electric vehicle supply chain businesses in the Carolinas.

Charlotte-based Albemarle Corporation says it will spend $1.3 billion to build a new lithium processing facility on 800 acres in Chester County, about 40 miles south of Charlotte. Albemarle says the plant will hire 300 people to process lithium from its mines around the world or from recycled batteries. Construction could begin in 2024.

Meanwhile, Charlotte-based Cirba Solutions announced plans for a $300 million factory at an industrial park near Columbia that will also create 300 jobs. The plant will extract lithium and other metals from used hybrid and electric vehicle batteries for recycling into new batteries.

An electric vehicle battery company, which first announced plans to build a Florence County facility, doubled its planned investment in South Carolina. Envision Automotive Energy Supply Co. now plans to build a $1.62 billion facility in Florence County, instead of an $810 million project announced last year. Dec 12, 2023

 

[timselectric]

IF ev sales are faltering I’d blame the manufacturers for predominantly offering 60k vehicles and not something for the entry level buyer

Agree 100%.
They have priced themselves right out of sales.

 

[AntronX]

Sales data cited by Heatmap actually show that "sales of battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles in the third quarter of 2023 exhibited the strongest year-on-year growth since the fourth quarter of 2021."

This is how they lie by interpreting data with positive spin. Here is a chart from the data cited above. BEV sales growth has stalled since Q2 of 2023. Chart spans 2011 - 2023 by month. Attached below is excel .zip file if anyone wants to play with the data. Edit: data is for USA only.

 

[time2roll]

Might be better to see a graph of total EVs on the road each month before saying adoption has fallen or even stalled.
I see close to 100,000 EVs getting adopted every month. Says to me the growth of growth might be slowing but more EVs still on the road each week.

 

[AntronX]

But the factories are expanding to accommodate continuing growth. Growth stalls while battery factories expand = oversupply and price crash. This is what we are seeing now.