Solar panel advances will see millions go off grid, scientists predict (article)

[houseofancients]

The beauty of a parallel system is that it can coexist alongside a "nationwide" bully power grid ... if I understand what you're alluding to, just build a parallel system that supplants their required connection.

It's up to you to decide what you'll do about the situation ... options are there, though.

Yeah , I'm fine with my hybrid ( deye/sol-arks/Sunsynk ) system...
Only use the grid when absolutely needed, still BY FAR cheaper than a Genny at gas prices here..
If and when they decide I have to pay the net meter, that will be the time I stop sending them my power, everything else is gain anyway..

 

[OffGridForGood]

If and when they decide I have to pay the net meter, that will be the time I stop sending them my power, everything else is gain anyway..

instead of giving away your excess for utility rates, with your high cost of gasoline, does it not make much better sense to charge up an EV with your excess solar power, even if this is only possible 6-months of the year? - just curious.

 

[ksmithaz1]

I believe in the 60’s Popular Science predicted each home would have a private cold fusion reactor by now.

Sadly, had we not stifled nuclear research, we might have something closer on the fission side.

 

[Solarcabin Channel]

tifled nuclear research

How was nuclear stifled?

Nuclear has been heavily subsidized to the tune of trillions and is still sucking the government teat to chase fission that is no closer now than it was 50 years ago and isn't needed with renewable energy.

 

[Doggydogworld]

I also think the per capita electric power consumption is not going down, but rising, especially with the push in the US to do away with fossil fuels.

I agree the article is too optimistic and glosses over thorny details, but US per capita electricity consumption peaked at 13.7 MWh/year in 2005, barely beating 2000's 13.67 MWh mark. This chart stops at 2014 (13.0 MWh), today we're around 12.5-12.6 MWh/yr.

Also note that ~50% of US electricity came from coal in 2005. Coal is now below 17% and should be sub-10% in five years. Wind+solar is now above 15% and should hit 20% around 2026, surpassing not only coal but also nuclear. At that point only natural gas (~40%) will generate more electricity than wind+solar.

 

[Rednecktek]

With all the advances in every area of technology (solar, generators, etc), there isn't anyplace on earth that isn't a good fit for "offgrid solar" ... if you accept that any kind of solar gear setup has these basic elements:

1. inverter (not grid-tied, or parallel)
2. battery bank (lifepo4)
3. panels (adjusted for your location, could be bi-facial, etc.)
4. generator (and site-based fuel, like propane)

With the above, it's like a balloon ... push on one piece a little more than others as needed, but the balloon just keeps works. I watch lots of threads go by, from all parts of the world, and I rarely see one where the above wouldn't work, with some thoughtful design & planning. Antartica might be an exception, but AFAIK, they don't let homesteaders like me go down there ... only a few mad scientists.

I do see lots of constraints and personal choices getting in the way, when folks try to go off-grid. Just do like @Rednecktek suggests ... put together whatever it takes for that location, and spray-paint it all "Victron-blue" when done.

If anyone thinks it can't be done, just start a separate thread, and toss in an area of the earth ... we'll hash it out for you! No nukes (nuclear power stations) needed (although I do want one ...)

I don't know about that, it seems there are places like my cabin where it Maybe could be done, but the expense and effort makes it completely pointless. For example:



It's been like this for weeks on end. On a good day I've generated less than 1Kwh from the 2400w array and have spent thousands to do that much. Even with gas at $5+ per gallon, I don't think I'm anywhere near break even on what I would have spent just running a gas generator instead of trying (and failing) to get solar to work in my area. I remember reading an article (it's in someone's signature I think) about someone setting up radio repeaters in Arizona (?) and Seattle and the short of it was that Seattle was a No-Go because of the temperature swings and lack of solar radiance made it virtually impossible to make a self sufficient solar system for even that small load.

As for Antarctica, I think that if you had enough battery storage you could make it, there is actually a lot of sun down there, it's often too cold to keep water in liquid state so clouds have a real hard time forming. Remember, it is a desert down there.

I keep waiting for the containerized SMR that I've been promised! ?

 

[ksmithaz1]

instead of giving away your excess for utility rates, with your high cost of gasoline, does it not make much better sense to charge up an EV with your excess solar power, even if this is only possible 6-months of the year? - just curious.

When I decided to go 'all-in' I picked up two EV's. One is charging at this moment. Oddly I'm producing 75% of summer at the moment but it's easier to charge the car because usage plummeted. The extra batteries have really trashed all the monitoring and tweaking, I just float the EV charge rate based on my battery SOC expectation at a given hour of the day. I'll pick up another 30KWH at some point, but at least here zero days are almost mythical.

 

[Solarcabin Channel]

I don't know about that, it seems there are places like my cabin where it Maybe could be done, but the expense and effort makes it completely pointless. For example:

View attachment 176089

It's been like this for weeks on end. On a good day I've generated less than 1Kwh from the 2400w array and have spent thousands to do that much. Even with gas at $5+ per gallon, I don't think I'm anywhere near break even on what I would have spent just running a gas generator instead of trying (and failing) to get solar to work in my area. I remember reading an article (it's in someone's signature I think) about someone setting up radio repeaters in Arizona (?) and Seattle and the short of it was that Seattle was a No-Go because of the temperature swings and lack of solar radiance made it virtually impossible to make a self sufficient solar system for even that small load.

As for Antarctica, I think that if you had enough battery storage you could make it, there is actually a lot of sun down there, it's often too cold to keep water in liquid state so clouds have a real hard time forming. Remember, it is a desert down there.

How is the wind there?

Anyone using turbines?

 

[houseofancients]

instead of giving away your excess for utility rates, with your high cost of gasoline, does it not make much better sense to charge up an EV with your excess solar power, even if this is only possible 6-months of the year? - just curious.

It would, weren't EV'S so very expensive , and so little second hand ( I refuse to buy a new car) that I'd rather spend that money on batteries , and keep driving my diesel.
Road tax here is based upon vehicle weight and CO2 output..
My diesel is a euro 5 ... Still doable

 

[Rednecktek]

How is the wind there?

Anyone using turbines?

Wind up here according to my weather station is either 22Mph or 0Mph and nothing in between. The 22Mph is a rarity.

 

[OffGridForGood]

It would, weren't EV'S so very expensive , and so little second hand ( I refuse to buy a new car) that I'd rather spend that money on batteries , and keep driving my diesel.
Road tax here is based upon vehicle weight and CO2 output..
My diesel is a euro 5 ... Still doable

I hear you.
I still drive my 3/4 Ton Ram, waiting for the day I can convert it to EV or buy a good-used electric pickup truck. It will come, but not yet.
The EV is used, and was still a bit pricy for what range it has, but it makes me feel better to see long summer day solar with a place to go, and spend less of my money on gasoline that is both expensive, and polluting - not just CO2 either.
We face the same delema I see. Hope to see better options in a few years.

Edit: in my way of thinking, the used EV "is" a battery, just one that can drive to the city and back! - I looked for a V2L capable EV, but was not able to find this option, in a mid-priced used local market. (and my wife was not going to let me open up the EV to tinker with DIY V2L option - Darn.

 

[Solarcabin Channel]

Wind up here according to my weather station is either 22Mph or 0Mph and nothing in between. The 22Mph is a rarity.

15mph will charge a battery up pretty fast with a 400-800 watt turbine.

Might be worth looking in to.

 

[Rednecktek]

15mph will charge a battery up pretty fast with a 400-800 watt turbine.

Might be worth looking in to.

The only time I ever see 15mph is when it's getting up to the 22 or when it's heading back to 0. ? No, wind out here would be less than useless. Sadly.

 

[chrisski]

I don't know about that, it seems there are places like my cabin where it Maybe could be done, but the expense and effort makes it completely pointless. For example:

View attachment 176089

It's been like this for weeks on end. On a good day I've generated less than 1Kwh from the 2400w array and have spent thousands to do that much. Even with gas at $5+ per gallon, I don't think I'm anywhere near break even on what I would have spent just running a gas generator instead of trying (and failing) to get solar to work in my area. I remember reading an article (it's in someone's signature I think) about someone setting up radio repeaters in Arizona (?) and Seattle and the short of it was that Seattle was a No-Go because of the temperature swings and lack of solar radiance made it virtually impossible to make a self sufficient solar system for even that small load.

As for Antarctica, I think that if you had enough battery storage you could make it, there is actually a lot of sun down there, it's often too cold to keep water in liquid state so clouds have a real hard time forming. Remember, it is a desert down there.

I keep waiting for the containerized SMR that I've been promised! ?

It’s a shame that it only makes 1 kWh per day.

More panels can be had for cheap but it looks like you more than most of us know the true cost and effort of mounting those panels.

This is a post that compares AZ to Washington State and is written by a guy who’s job it is to put those Systems together.

 

[upnorthandpersonal]

Anyone using turbines?

Not worth it. Too much maintenance, too many failures, and if you don't have a constant, consistent, high wind, you never generate anything worthwhile with small turbines. The math proves this - you're dealing with two fundamental issues:

- The Betz Limit
- The Power in Wind equation

The Betz Limit is basically a theoretical number of the maximum efficiency you can possibly get. At most, only 59.3% of the kinetic wind energy can be used to spin the turbine and generate electricity. Remember this is a theoretical limit; in practice, you're going to be closer to 40%.

The Power in Wind equation is given as:

P = 1/2 x ρ x A x V³

Where:

P = power in Watts
ρ = air density (kg/m³, at about 1.2 at sea level)
A = Swept area of the blades (m²)
V = Velocity of the wind

So, no matter how good your turbine is, you will get in practice at most 40% of the wind energy converted to electricity. To capture the wind energy in the first place, you have two variables to increase (one in your control, the other not): swept area and wind velocity. The smaller you make the turbine, the faster you need to spin to make any meaningful energy. The only variable you control is the swept area, which means making the blades as big as possible. Also notice that the velocity is cubed in that equation, so you'll generate much, much less power at low wind speeds...

 

[Solarcabin Channel]

Too much maintenance, too many failures

I have had my Air X up since 2009 and haven't done any maintenance or had any breakdowns?

We don't get great wind here but in winter just a 15mph storm will fill up my batteries fast.

Most people over estimate their wind and you need a high mount to get above obstructions but they work some places.

The buzzards love the turbine in summer!

 

[chrisski]

I have had my Air X up since 2009 and haven't done any maintenance or had any breakdowns?

What are you doing different that every other successful user of wind requires the tower coming down every year for maintenance?

If this is the Air Primus X, I read the manual and seems there is no lubrication, but blades are supposed to be inspected every six months, every five years and the circuit board replaced at 7 years.

 

[upnorthandpersonal]

I have had my Air X up since 2009 and haven't done any maintenance or had any breakdowns?

We don't get great wind here but in winter just a 15mph storm will fill up my batteries fast.

Most people over estimate their wind and you need a high mount to get above obstructions but they work some places.

The buzzards love the turbine in summer!

From their graph at https://www.primuswindpower.com/wind-power-products/air-30-turbine-2/



So at 15mph (average annual wind speed), you would generate, let's be generous, 50kWh per month, or about 1.6kWh if you would bring this down to a day. These are ideal circumstances from their own website... I doubt they're useful for most people, and I seriously doubt one even gets close to 50kWh per month.

For every single person not having issues with a turbine, there are 10 more that can tell you about ice and snow build-up, storm taking them out, mechanical failure, noise issues, etc.

 

[Solarcabin Channel]

So at 15mph (average annual wind speed), you would generate, let's be generous, 50kWh per month, or about 1.6kWh if you would bring this down to a day. These are ideal circumstances from their own website... I doubt they're useful for most people, and I seriously doubt one even gets close to 50kWh per month.

I only need it to top up batteries on low sun days and it works for me!

I always recommend solar before wind but some places a wind turbine makes sense and I haven't had any of those issues and I live in very cold country at the foot of the Rockies.

Do you have a wind turbine that has those issues?

 

[ksmithaz1]

That article, what a load. Dreamy warm fuzzies all around!

A) Just because it's solar doesn't mean it's green
B) Single-home power production is quite wasteful when considering manufacturing impacts

We are kidding ourselves if we think there is a solution other than nuclear.

Solar to me seems like a good fit for:
1) remote locations (bush cabin)
2) mobile applications (RVs)
3) eccentrics who are annoyed with the grid for whatever reason and/or want to play with toys

I'm all three. Yet I feel solar is false economy, especially if you hire someone else to do any part of it.

You can count me in on #3, though there is plenty of propaganda in all directions. I prefer a more pragmatic approach. I think Nuclear is the clear answer for mass production and downtime. OTOH I'm finally 100% off grid with solar about $45K all in.

Consider: Demand (peak) is always the problem. In places where solar makes clear sense (like here in Phoenix) one should be able to design a home with solar and battery in mind to start with. This gives you the ability to run your house when the grid is down for at least a day. Adding a nuke plant with a demand controlled feed to the homes would give you the ability to feed power at a steady rate back to the houses and recharge batteries without taxing the grid on low production days. Your in-built power plant handles the peaks and valleys of demand. I've had one or two exceptionally weak days in the last 6 months that shot production below 50KWH, but even in a more volatile area the idea is sound if you get significant sunlight.

If the house design incorporates a 100A of inverters and the wiring for solar to start with the cost should decrease significantly and remove a chunk of the 'hire anyone else' argument. Over time I expect to see the various interconnects on the inverter side become more standardized. It's not bad now, but I could see a bus arrangement/cable for interconnect of multiple inverters and batteries becoming standardized, as well as form-factors and mounting. I think 12K output (50A) AIO units should be the target for most residental units, allowing for parallel of up to 8 (~400A) should cover almost every residence on the planet. There will always be smaller units for other applications like RV's and such. Plus smarter electrical panels are currently pricey but will drop as well (eg https://www.span.io/panel)

Solar panels are another area where standardization of sizes/performance would be huge. The current hodgepodge of panel sizes and output specifications completely ruins Eli Whitney's dreams. It also creates waste and makes it difficult to replace or add on to existing installations. I think once the manufacturing systems get to be more commodity type equipment prices will go down a good bit, quality will go up, and waste will go down.

Not optimistic about world affairs, but I'm pretty optimistic about the future of the solar and battery industry in general. We are the early adopters here in these forums, I already see downward trends in pricing on much of this stuff.