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Can Solar & Wind Fix Everything (e.g., Climate Change) with a battery break-through?

Well Bob, I know you're just going to say this all bunk and I'm only finding what I want to find. But...

Interesting alternative theory.

...The new model displays characteristics of an emergent macro-level thermodynamic relationship heretofore unbeknown to science ...
When a model shows unexpected results that don't match measured values, the model is most likely wrong as opposed to observed values.
That is they haven't discovered anything new, they're just justifying their argument with a nonsense computer model.

So, who are the authors:
  • Ned Niolov is a physical scientist with the USDA Forest Service. So, not a climate scientist or a physicist.
  • Karl Zeller is a retired USDA Forest Service scientist and was at least a weather forecaster for a part of his career.
But basically these two are computer programmers, they build models based on other people science.

Oh, turns out they're famous for falsehoods too (ref):
Zeller and his colleague Ned Nikolov, who used to work together at the forest service, were the subject of controversy when they were caught publishing a paper under pseudonyms Den Volokin and Lark ReLlez (their names spelled backwards) multiple times from 2014 to 2016. In their research, they propose an alternate theory to the generally accepted greenhouse effect and suggest that greenhouse gas emissions are not contributing to global warming. [3]

Nikolov and Zeller suggest that atmospheric pressure is the cause for warming, counter to the accepted science of the greenhouse effect. Professional climate scientist Scott Denning described their theory as “too simple” and said it ignores elements of thermodynamics. However, the two argue that their papers were unfairly rejected not due to the science, but because of their association with the climate change denial blog network. [4] Another climate scientist, Professor Steve Sherwood, described one paper published in a “sham journal” by Nikolov and Zeller as “laughable.”
At least it proves deniers can get their work published no matter how stupid it is.

...Earth’s surface warming appears to be a product of the air temperature set by solar heating and atmospheric pressure....
We can also tell this is nonsense because solar energy input has been fairly steady for a long time. From the "200 myths" see "It's the sun", or from NOAA you can see a lot of warming over the last 60 years, but solar input only varying seasonally by a watt:

cru_2005.gif


Update: found a blog debunking the paper: https://rabett.blogspot.com/2017/08/making-elephant-dance-as-performed-by.html
 
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Well Bob, I know you're just going to say this all bunk and I'm only finding what I want to find. But...


When a model shows unexpected results that don't match measured values, the model is most likely wrong as opposed to observed values.
That is they haven't discovered anything new, they're just justifying their argument with a nonsense computer model.

So, who are the authors:
  • Ned Niolov is a physical scientist with the USDA Forest Service. So, not a climate scientist or a physicist.
  • Karl Zeller is a retired USDA Forest Service scientist and was at least a weather forecaster for a part of his career.
But basically these two are computer programmers, they build models based on other people science.

Oh, turns out they're famous for falsehoods too (ref):



At least it proves deniers can get their work published no matter how stupid it is.


We can also tell this is nonsense because solar energy input has been fairly steady for a long time. From the "200 myths" see "It's the sun", or from NOAA you can see a lot of warming over the last 60 years, but solar input only varying seasonally by a watt:

cru_2005.gif


Update: found a blog debunking the paper: https://rabett.blogspot.com/2017/08/making-elephant-dance-as-performed-by.html
It still boggles my mind that some people think our most critical issue these days, is to spend trillions on government and UN related projects to try and reduce CO2 in the atmosphere, and do this while all the other major industrial countries do nothing.

This is their priority, over War, Crime, Poverty, Homelessness, Drug deaths, Corruption, Social decay, Mass migrations, and Economic collapse.

Will you be charging your EV to save the planet while the nukes are on their way?
 



 
























 
It still boggles my mind that some people think our most critical issue these days
An or proposition like that is known as a "sucker's choice" - it's this or that. Obviously, nuclear war is bad. Obviously, climate change is bad.
Nuclear war may or may not happen. Climate change is well under way and +1.5C doesn't seem stoppable.
 
An or proposition like that is known as a "sucker's choice" - it's this or that. Obviously, nuclear war is bad. Obviously, climate change is bad.
Nuclear war may or may not happen. Climate change is well under way and +1.5C doesn't seem stoppable.
I will take +1.5c over +100,000,000C any day of the week.

During the period of peak energy output, a 1-megaton (Mt) nuclear weapon can produce temperatures of about 100 million degrees Celsius at its center, about four to five times that of the Sun.
 
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An or proposition like that is known as a "sucker's choice" - it's this or that. Obviously, nuclear war is bad. Obviously, climate change is bad.
Nuclear war may or may not happen. Climate change is well under way and +1.5C doesn't seem stoppable.

Climate has been changing since the beginning of Earth's existence.
Manmade climate change is complete baloney, completely made up by the parasite class in order to gain more power.
Proof of this has been given numerous times, from numerous respected scientists as well as from individual observation.
Anyone claiming anthropoligic climate change is a parasite class shill or an illiterate useful idiot.
 
Svetz learned nothing during covid.

It's just happenstance that all the people who go against the " need to make government bigger" narrative are all "taken down" because they are "quacks".

Seriously Svetz, just stop.

Go away.
 
Svetz learned nothing during covid.

It's just happenstance that all the people who go against the " need to make government bigger" narrative are all "taken down" because they are "quacks".

Seriously Svetz, just stop.

Go away.
This is @svetz thread, so he is rightfully here. I would like to thank him for starting this thread, as it has been a very robust conversation, and a lot has been learned.
 

How El Niño will affect the weather this winter

Scientists lay out a sweeping roadmap for transitioning the US off fossil fuels

Opinion: Interesting, but I don't see Congress taking any action. Similar to SanWizard's PoV, silent killers can be easily ignored. That and lobbying.​

Climate change is real. Attempts to deny it rely on myths and falsehoods

Light-Duty Vehicles, Air Pollution, and Climate Change


This is @svetz thread, so he is rightfully here.
Everyone is 'rightfully' here and invited to post. Forum rules allow members to post their thoughts on any forum so long as they follow the forum policies. If a member doesn't want to see a person's posts, they should just put them on ignore. I'm good with people posting honest discussions as to why they believe climate change isn't real or not urgent, but I do ignore members who repeatedly violate forum rules as they're not worth my time.

..I will take +1.5c over +100,000,000C any day of the week....
I don't know, 5 bombs/second is a lot of energy too...

Ocean heat shatters record with warming equal to 5 atomic bombs exploding "every second" for a year. Researchers say it's "getting worse."

 
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How El Niño will affect the weather this winter

Scientists lay out a sweeping roadmap for transitioning the US off fossil fuels

Opinion: Interesting, but I don't see Congress taking any action. Similar to SanWizard's PoV, silent killers can be easily ignored. That and lobbying.​

Climate change is real. Attempts to deny it rely on myths and falsehoods

Light-Duty Vehicles, Air Pollution, and Climate Change



Everyone is 'rightfully' here and invited to post. Forum rules allow members to post their thoughts on any forum so long as they follow the forum policies. If a member doesn't want to see a person's posts, they should just put them on ignore. I'm good with people posting honest discussions as to why they believe climate change isn't real or not urgent, but I do ignore members who repeatedly violate forum rules as they're not worth my time.


I don't know, 5 bombs/second is a lot of energy too...

Ocean heat shatters record with warming equal to 5 atomic bombs exploding "every second" for a year. Researchers say it's "getting worse."

Five nukes a second for a year? LOL
How many millions died in the ocean this year?
Its stupid shit like that which makes people laugh at climate change.

31,536,000 x 5 bombs this year?

If that were true, the oceans would have boiled off the earth, and the surface of the earth would be hotter than the Sun.
Dont believe everything you read son.
 
Five nukes a second for a year? LOL
How many millions died in the ocean this year?
Its stupid shit like that which makes people laugh at climate change.

31,536,000 x 5 bombs this year?

If that were true, the oceans would have boiled off the earth, and the surface of the earth would be hotter than the Sun.
Dont believe everything you read son.

What is the nuclear bomb equivalent of the Sun's irradiation upon the surface of the earth each day?
 
What is the nuclear bomb equivalent of the Sun's irradiation upon the surface of the earth each day?
Yeah, I know that the numbers get big when you include the entire Earth land mass facing the Sun, thats why Solar works. I am laughing at a year of sunny days compared to exploding over one hundred and fifty seven MILLION atomic bombs.
Its a bit different in destructive power over sunshine, and the sun does not cause a nuclear winter.
The funny thing is, as the sun ages and expands, that will most likey be the cause of earths demise.
 

Navigator CO2 Ventures cancels carbon-capture pipeline project in US Midwest​

A small win for sanity

https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/navigator-co2-ventures-cancels-carbon-capture-pipeline-project-us-midwest-2023-10-20/
Oct 20 (Reuters) – Navigator CO2 Ventures has canceled its Heartland Greenway pipeline project aimed at capturing 15 million metric tons of carbon dioxide annually from Midwest ethanol plants and storing it permanently underground, the company said on Friday, citing “unpredictable” state regulatory processes.
The cancellation of one of the biggest projects of its kind is a setback to the development of carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects in the U.S., which are a pillar of President Joe Biden’s climate strategy. It is also a blow to the ethanol industry, which sees CCS as key to cutting emissions from producing the fuel.
https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/navigator-co2-ventures-cancels-carbon-capture-pipeline-project-us-midwest-2023-10-20/
It was local farmers and environmentalists combined in an unusual alliance.

“The people united to resist Navigator at every level in every corner of every state and we won,” said Jess Mazour, an Iowa organizer with the Sierra Club environmental group, which opposes carbon pipelines.
https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/navigator-co2-ventures-cancels-carbon-capture-pipeline-project-us-midwest-2023-10-20/
The large CCS pipeline project from Summit Carbon Solutions continued although also facing strong opposition.

Summit said in a statement that it is “well-positioned to add additional plants and communities to our project footprint.”
Summit recently said its pipeline will start operating in 2026, a delay from its initial timeline of 2024.
https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/navigator-co2-ventures-cancels-carbon-capture-pipeline-project-us-midwest-2023-10-20/
 

Are You Prepared for Power Cuts This Winter?​

Last week I was in France for a few days and noticed that the French Government was planning to impose power supply restrictions on certain types of home.

On returning to the U.K., I found a letter from Scottish and Southern Electricity explaining to its customers how they should prepare for power cuts here in Britain:

power-cuts-letter-1-745x1024.jpeg

I also see that the Dutch are about to start rationing electricity this winter, and other European countries may follow, as they did last year.

It would seem that those crazy conspiracy theorists who predicted that our rulers’ saving-the-planet Net Zero policies would result in electricity supply shortages were right.

It’s extraordinary how so many of yesterday’s ‘conspiracy theories’ turn out to be today’s reality.

Are you prepared for power cuts to your home and business this winter? You’d better be.
 
...Its stupid shit like that which makes people laugh at climate change. 31,536,000 x 5 bombs this year?

If that were true, the oceans would have boiled off the earth, and the surface of the earth would be hotter than the Sun.
But you didn't do the actual math before putting another member down did you?

The problem with having faith in lies is you stop questioning them and it's easier to disbelieve the truth. You think it's common sense, but it's not. It's okay, I do the same thing. Someone says climate change is a hoax and I figure they are wrong. The difference is I try not to put others down, and I look into where their science went wrong so I can explain it to them. Examining the data, the authors, and the source can help lead credence.

Had you done any research you'd have seen it had been vetted by the NY Post, CBS, The Washington Post, and even places like the Weather Channel. That doesn't make it true, but they're more legitimate than ConspiraciesRus.ru and other denier sites whose fake facts have been disproved repeatedly.

I suspect two of the misconceptions you made were "how much energy was in the nuke they used as a baseline" and how big the oceans are. That doesn't make it a joke, it was still enough energy to wipe out a city. Estimates are it killed 140,000 people. But cities are small compared to the mass of the oceans. We don't know how many people will die from climate change. But some estimate a billion if we keep doing nothing. It's a big problem that needs urgent action.

Dont believe everything you read son.
Just because it sounds outrageous doesn't mean it isn't true. Yes, hard-to-believe claims need a higher caliber of proof. But in this case, it seems to be there.

You can read the paper for the ocean temperature estimate. I can't say their numbers are right I don't know enough. But it was vetted by other scientists. The nuke calculation was based on that and is pretty simple math:

According to the study, the 2019 ocean temperature is about 0.075 degrees Celsius above the 1981-2010 average. To reach this temperature, the ocean would have taken in 228,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 (228 Sextillion) Joules of heat.

"That's a lot of zeros indeed. To make it easier to understand, I did a calculation. The Hiroshima atom-bomb exploded with an energy of about 63,000,000,000,000 Joules. The amount of heat we have put in the world's oceans in the past 25 years equals to 3.6 billion Hiroshima atom-bomb explosions." said CHENG Lijing, lead paper author and associate professor with the International Center for Climate and Environmental Sciences at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). Cheng is also affiliated with CAS's Center for Ocean Mega-Science. "This measured ocean warming is irrefutable and is further proof of global warming. There are no reasonable alternatives aside from the human emissions of heat trapping gases to explain this heating." ref

Keep in mind this is also a pretty old study. Data stoped in 2010, 13 years ago. What's happened to the ocean temperature since then:
19418.jpeg

That's obviously a lot more energy, it's building up fast. AFAIK we don't have 2023 data yet, but surface temperatures have been interesting:

fig1_era5_daily_sst_60S-60N_1979-2023_dark.png

I know a lot of people don't believe. But I think it has more to do with they don't comprehend the true scale of what's actually happening. Common sense tells them it's not a problem. It's easier to handle when it's small, the larger it grows the more it's going to cost to deal with it. Right now fossil fuel production is at an all-time high. Despite all the green and renewable projects, there's still a huge demand and 2023 will probably be the highest CO2 production year in our history.

...31,536,000 x 5 bombs ...
No, more than that from the math. They rounded down to 5.
 
Ah, there is Svetz being dishonest again (or pushing propaganda)

‘Boiling Oceans’ Alarm Sounded by Media – But No Mention that Total Ocean Heat Has Risen Just 0.03% in 125 Years​

In early April, the Guardian ran a story reporting that the world’s ocean surface temperature was at an “all time high” of 21.1°C, and this was leading to “marine heatwaves” around the globe. “The current trajectory looks like it’s heading off the charts, smashing previous records”, said arch-climate activist Professor Matthew England from the University of New South Wales. The story did what it was supposed to do and upped climate alarm, but, curiously, less publicity has been given to the recent fall to 20.8°C in just seven weeks.

The ‘boiling oceans’ trope is very popular these days in climate alarmists circles, not least because so many other scare stories around corals, polar ice and global warming are having to be retired. A month later, the Guardian’s Graham Readfearn followed up his ‘off the charts’ cherry-picked claptrap by promising there was a “huge payback” because the oceans had been absorbing the world’s “extra heat”. It was said that the United Nations’ climate assessment laid out “the unfathomable heat gain” between 1971 and 2018 of 396 zettajoules, equivalent to the power of 25 billion Hiroshima atomic bombs. In fact the UN’s sixth assessment report lays out a graph on page 350 showing a steady 500 zettajoules increase in ocean heat since 1900. There are 1,514,000 zettajoules of heat in the ocean, and the fact that this is a tiny 0.03% increase is not considered worthy of mention.

The Guardian’s claimed record is supplied by data from the U.S. weather service NOAA that measures only the warmest part of the ocean between 60°S and 60°N. Much of the world’s climate is determined by heat transfer from the tropics to the poles. At the moment, an El Niño is brewing in the Pacific which warms the top of the ocean and can transfer heat across the world. It is a natural oscillation, but alarmist scientists are rushing to claim any warming as human-caused climate change. The Guardian quotes a NOAA researcher Dr. Mike McPhaden who says a prolonged period of La Niña cold is coming to an end. Needless to say, the effect of these two oscillations have nothing to do with any changes caused by greenhouse gases, but with El Niño riding to the rescue, McPhaden suggests “we are likely seeing the climate change signal coming through loud and clear”.

Perhaps some basic physics at this point may help, although Guardian readers and those of a nervous ‘settled’ climate science disposition may care to look away now. Only a tiny fraction of the world’s heat resides in the atmosphere. If the atmospheric temperature rose by a huge 27°C and all that heat was then transferred to just the first 72 metres of the ocean, it would only be enough to raise sea temperatures at that level by 1°C. This is according to the latest work by the Clintel Foundation, a group of scientists who have recently produced a detailed analysis of the latest IPCC assessment work. It is noted that accurate data from the top ‘mixed’ level of the ocean has only been available for about 19 years. Various sea-surface and mixed-layer temperature measurements are said to have different trends, “some up, and some down”. From 100m to 2,000m it seems there is a current century warming trend of 0.4°C, about half that reported for the atmosphere at the Earth’s surface. Since El Niño and La Niña effects do not change water at this level, the rise is noted to be “remarkably linear”.

Of course heat transfers between atmosphere and ocean occur, but it is pushing it a bit to suggest all or most of the current warming in the ocean is caused by an atmosphere containing a tiny fraction of the heat already stored beneath the water. And it is pushing it even further to suggest that most oceanic warming is caused by humans adding just 4% to all atmospheric carbon dioxide, a gas that is only measured in trace quantities at around 400 parts per million. It is beneath the water that we can profitably find some answers about changing oceanic temperatures.

In a paper published last year, a group of oceanographers working out of the University of Miami found that warming in the Indian Ocean since 2000 could not be explained by air to sea heat transfers alone. It was found that warming down to 700m was driven by significant changes in oceanic fluxes and not by surface influences. In fact during the 2010s it was found that net air-sea fluxes are “near zero”. Reporting on the findings, the climate site No Tricks Zone noted that the Indian Ocean covers approximately 20% of the ocean surface, but the basin accounted for one half of overall warming in the global ocean’s top 700m from 2000 to 2019. No Tricks Zone observes that scientists have pointed out that internal ocean processes and natural circulating heat can explain decadal-scale warming and cooling in the global ocean.
 

CO2 Has Almost No Effect on Global Temperature, Says Leading Climate Scientist​


Forget ‘settled’ science or ‘consensus’ – that is a political construct designed to quash debate in the interests of promoting a command-and-control Net Zero agenda. One of the great drivers of continual changes in the climate is heat exchange within both the atmosphere and the Earth’s surface. Current understanding of the entire picture is limited, and it seems the opportunity has been taken to fill this gap by blaming carbon dioxide almost entirely for the recent gentle warming. A new paper on the so-called ‘greenhouse’ effect highlights the vital role played by oceans and water vapour flows. CO2 is said to have “minimal effect” on the Earth’s temperature and climate.

The paper has been published by the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF) and is written by meteorologist William Kininmonth, a former consultant to the World Meteorological Organisation’s Commission for Climatology and former head of the Australian Government’s National Climate Centre. Kininmonth argues that the oceans are the “vital inertial and thermal flywheels” of the climate system. If one wants to control climate, it will be necessary to control the oceans, he argues. “Efforts to decarbonise in the hope of affecting global temperatures will be in vain,” he adds.

In Kininmonth’s view, the recent warming is “probably simply the result of fluctuations in the ever-changing ocean circulation”. CO2 “must be recognised” as a very minor contributor to the observed warming, and one that is unlikely to prolong the warming trend beyond the peak generated by the natural oceanic oscillations, he notes. He explains that the main driver of global temperature is the movement of energy in water, both in the oceans and the atmosphere after evaporation.

image-57-1024x625.png
As CO₂ concentration increases from 0 to 600 parts per million (green bars), the total strength of the greenhouse effect, measured as the energy the greenhouse gases radiate to the Earth’s surface, barely changes (orange line). Source: Kininmonth 2022
Kininmonth proposes that tropical oceans have warmed recently, not as a result of additional atmospheric CO2, but most likely because of a reduction of heat as ocean currents have slowed. Heat has been exchanged with the tropical atmosphere, and transported by the winds to enhance northern polar warming. It is accepted that warming over the Arctic has been greater in the recent past than elsewhere over the globe. Ocean surface temperature in the tropics has warmed much less than the Arctic. However Arctic warming has occurred predominantly during the cold winter half of the year, when the surface is largely in darkness. For Kininmonth, this implies that it can only be the result of heat transport from warmer latitudes. Kininmonth’s conclusions are of course a subject for scientific argument and debate, but It might be noted that they provide a plausible insight into why temperatures at the South Pole have barely moved for at least 50 years.

Settled science is all in on the predominant role of CO2 acting as the climate control thermostat. As we reported recently in the Daily Sceptic, a bizarre ‘fact check’ by Facebook partner Climate Feedback of one of our previous articles stated: “Natural (non-human) drivers of climate change have been mostly stable since the onset of modern warming and all the available scientific evidence implicates human greenhouse gas emissions as the primary culprit.” As I argued, the claim that the climate has not undergone any natural change for almost 200 years is nonsense. Not a scrap of evidence can be submitted to back up this proposition, and Climate Feedback’s claim is little more than a denial of climate change.

The political narrative, however, seems to demand that like the White Rabbit in Alice in Wonderland, six impossible things must be believed before breakfast. To back up the narrative, imprecise science often ends up being fed into climate models, along with improbable guesses of massive CO2-caused future global warming. But as Dr. John Christie, Professor of Atmospheric and Earth Sciences at the University of Alabama, recently noted: “Models fail to reproduce accurate energy flows, and this is the guts of how the climate system works.”

Despite this, climate models remain exhibit A in the attempt to prove that we are on a path to climate disaster unless humans stop using fossil fuels. But increasingly, their controversial role is being called into question. The recent World Climate Declaration signed by around 250 university professors, and led by a Nobel physics laureate, noted that models had many shortcomings, “and are not remotely plausible as global policy tools”. We must free ourselves from the “naïve belief” in immature climate models. In future, climate research must give significantly more emphasis to empirical science, it states.

Of course Kininmonth’s work will be largely ignored in the mainstream. The BBC will bin it, the Guardian might be tempted to run its usual in-house slur that bungs are being paid by BP; anyone publicising its conclusions runs the risk of woke corporations like PayPal suddenly withdrawing financial transactional services, while footling ‘fact checks’ will ensure black marks and warnings across social media. GWPF invited the Royal Society and the Met Office to review the Kininmonth paper, promising any response would be published as an appendix. “No reply was received,” noted the Foundation.
 
Isnt it interesting that NOT ONCE, have Svetzes of this world mentioned stuff like this? Because they actually do not care about the planet.

More than 25,000 Tonnes of Covid-Related PPE and Plastic Waste has Been Thrown in the Sea​





More than 25,000 tonnes of personal protective equipment and other types of Covid-related plastic waste has entered Earth’s oceans, a new study estimates – and 71% of this is due to wash up on beaches by the end of the year. MailOnline has more.
Researchers in California have developed a computer model simulating the fate of plastic waste as it leaves beaches, drifts along the water and fragments into pieces.
They estimate that 8.4 million tons of pandemic-related plastic waste has been generated by 193 countries, from the start of the pandemic to August 2021.
Almost three quarters – 71% – is likely to wash up on beaches by the end of the year, the model suggests.
Most of the offending Covid-related plastic is from medical waste generated by hospitals, the researchers say, which “dwarfs” the contribution from PPE and packaging from online shopping giant like Amazon and eBay.
PPE includes masks, face shields disposable gloves and surgical gowns. The term “Covid-related plastic”, meanwhile, includes PPE and any plastic packaging used to contain these items, as well as plastic from test kits.
All can enter rivers and eventually travel into the world’s oceans if not disposed of properly.
The new study was led by a team of researchers at Nanjing University’s School of Atmospheric Sciences and UC San Diego’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography, who used data from the start of the pandemic in 2020 through to August 2021.
“Plastic waste causes harm to marine life and has become a major global environmental concern,” they say in their paper.
“The recent COVID-19 pandemic has led to an increased demand for single-use plastic, intensifying pressure on this already out-of-control problem.
“This work shows that more than eight million tons of pandemic-associated plastic waste have been generated globally, with more than 25,000 tons entering the global ocean.
“This poses a long-lasting problem for the ocean environment and is mainly accumulated on beaches and coastal sediments.”
 
I wonder if Svetz is getting paid...

Elite Billionaire Foundations Fund Wave of Green Climate propaganda flooding into schools​

Climate change misinformation is flooding into British schools, funded, it would appear, by the dark green money of elite billionaire foundations. Schoolchildren are encouraged to plot implausible temperatures rises of 11°C, taught that alkaline oceans are ‘acidic’ and encouraged to write letters to policymakers claiming “our house is on fire” in the style of Greta Thunberg.

The material is being distributed around schools by a London-based operation called Climate Science. An introductory video says its mission is to bring “high quality climate education to every school, company and individual in the world”. Such aims of course do not come cheap. Among the lobby group’s “partners, supporters and friends” are green activist funders such as Schmidt Futures – the family foundation of former Google boss Eric Schmidt – and the Grantham Institute at Imperial – partly funded by green billionaire investor Jeremy Grantham.

Give me the child until seven, and I will give you the man, said Aristotle, a phrase understood down the ages, not least by the Jesuit Christian order. Blind faith is more readily accepted by minds whose critical faculties have not been fully developed. And there are few ideas in today’s climate political agenda that require more faith than the forecasts of climate models. How exactly do we know about future climate change and the frequency of extreme weather events, asks Climate Science. “It’s all down to climate models,” is the answer, adding: It’s “pretty cool” to get a glimpse of a potential future, isn’t it?

The school briefing notes suggest that climate models “have been used to make accurate projections for the past 50 years, and have advanced significantly during this time”. Of course, as we have seen in the Daily Sceptic, those “accurate projections” do not apply to temperature forecasts. In fact, it would more accurate to say that they have never produced an accurate forecast in 50 years of trying. Far from becoming more accurate, they are becoming almost laughably inaccurate.

image-113.png

The above graph was produced in a recent paper by the physicist Nicola Scafetta. It analysed 38 of the main models and found that most had overestimated global warming over the last 40 years. Many of them should be “dismissed and not used by policymakers”, he concluded. The thick green line shows the actual temperature measured by accurate satellite recordings. Interestingly, the models started to go haywire at a time when the warming scare was gaining political traction and critical debate on the science started to be discouraged. The World Climate Declaration has been signed by almost 300 university professors, led by a Nobel physics laureate Professor Ivar Giaever. “We should free ourselves from the naïve belief in immature climate models,” says the Declaration. “In future, climate research must give significantly more emphasis to empirical science.”

Meanwhile, back in British classrooms, schoolchildren are being told that we can “expect to see an increase of 4.5°C in global temperatures by 2100 and an increase of roughly 11°C by the end of 2200”. To ram the message home, children must plot the graph below.

ximage-114.png.pagespeed.ic.62QiONJ1fY.webp

There is of course no mention that it is unknown how much temperature will rise if carbon dioxide is doubled in the atmosphere. Scientists debate a range from around 0.5°C to 6°C. Recently, the estimates have tended to fall away from the upper end, not least because global warming has been running out of steam for over two decades. Some scientists argue that the warming properties of CO2 diminish on a logarithmic basis past certain concentrations as the gas becomes saturated in the atmosphere. If, and it is an if, CO2 doubles in the atmosphere by 2200, even the most extreme estimates of temperature rise come nowhere close to 11°C.

Further misinformation is contained in the statement that average temperatures over the last 10,000 years have risen “very gradually” by no more than 1°C. Living things are said to have had time to adapt to gradually changing conditions. This entirely misses the point that over the last 10,000 years there have been a number of warming periods when temperatures were higher than they are today. Last week we noted evidence that suggested the high Austrian Alps were up to 7°C warmer in summer between 4,000 BC and AD 70 than today. Humans, of course, are capable of adapting quickly to temperature changes much higher than an almost unnoticeable 1°C.

Corals are tricky territory for climate alarmists these days since the Great Barrier Reef is currently reporting 35-year record levels. But they are said in the schools material to have been “harmed by the effects of climate change”, although there is no evidence that observed long-term changes in the climate have caused recent significant damage. In fact tropical corals have been around for 500 million years and grow in waters between 24-32°C. Recent bleaching was mostly caused by temporary spikes in water temperatures, easily attributed to natural El Niño oscillations. Instead, Climate Science puts an emphasis on ocean “acidification”, although an entry level chemistry course would note that oceans are not acidic but alkaline.

Humans are said to release “nasty gases” into the air and this “sours” the ocean. The corals become stressed, die and turn white. In fact, corals don’t die first, they bleach and this process is almost entirely due to changing water temperatures. ‘Nasty gases’ of course is a way to demonise CO2 among the younger generation, despite the gas being vital to all life on Earth. The ocean is in fact very alkaline and numerous exchanges, many little understood, influence its pH value. In addition, slightly higher temperatures release CO2 from the oceans.

Needless to say, schoolchildren are encouraged to engage in “climate activism”. This is despite the fact that many activists are said to be in danger of “persecution”, and receiving “threats” from animal farmers, fossil fuel and mining interests. Further information on these threats is not provided. Could it be that the butcher will stop delivering sausages, BP will turn the heating off and Rio Tinto will cease paying dividends into parents’ (and teachers’) pension schemes? Children are also advised to pick an activist from a list including Greta Thunberg and George Monbiot, and fill a poster board full of their good works. Letters to policymakers should stress the emotional, they are told. It is said to be important to learn how other writers present their arguments so children can use these techniques in their own writing. One of the “pillars” suggested is Thunberg’s claim before the World Economic Forum in 2019 that: “Our house is on fire, I am here to say, our house is on fire.”

As with the Jesuits, so with the new climate religion. Belief is everything. “There are no grey areas when it comes to survival,” the children are told.
 
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