Colorado utility company locks people out of their thermostats

[time2roll]

PV did not increase the cost of afternoon power. PV reduced it.
The highest total demand from grid is mid-afternoon. PV contributes to power production at that time. More cheaply than the alternatives.
Growth of PV probably let utilities get away with not installing as much generation.
Today, if you subtract PV generation from total consumption, the peak of remaining power generation occurs early evening.

All PV did was reduce the daily kWh market share of natural gas peaker plants. They have the same fixed costs, reduced utilization and reduced fuel costs.

Yes crunch time is when the sun sets and the wind is low at which time the full burden is on burning fuel.
Need more storage.

 

[740GLE]

PV did not increase the cost of afternoon power. PV reduced it.
The highest total demand from grid is mid-afternoon. PV contributes to power production at that time. More cheaply than the alternatives.
Growth of PV probably let utilities get away with not installing as much generation.
Today, if you subtract PV generation from total consumption, the peak of remaining power generation occurs early evening.

All PV did was reduce the daily kWh market share of natural gas peaker plants. They have the same fixed costs, reduced utilization and reduced fuel costs.

PV generation is peanuts from 4pm until 9pm, that is peak demand. Also remember, majority of utilities don’t own generation. It’s the markets problem to solve via real time prices.

It’s cheaper to keep a larger power plant online with reserves for afternoon peak, but if that afternoon peak is 3-4x it has been with PV generation disappearing, that means 3-4x times of fast start dispatchable generation is needed, that fast start generation is crazy expensive compared to base load generation. This is why sooooo many commercial PV sites have been recently permitted as PV + battery. Those 4 hours in the evening are worth at least twice the other 20hrs of the day.

 

[JRH]

****FROM CENTRAL COMMAND****
****PRIORITY STATUS ***
****RECIPIENT,EARTHLINGS****

We are aware of the rebellious attitude against the power distribution points on earth you call the grid.
We and we alone have allowed such a luxury to exist in your feeble and primitive culture.
Dont bite the hand that feeds you..

Be aware we are watching..

***End of transmission***

 

[Goboatingnow]

I watched a 'Fully Charged Show' video today that pointed out an interesting contradiction in "cost sharing" that is happening in Great Britain. Admittedly they have far more options for how you pay for power, but my local utility has a similar 'community solar' program that gave me pause for thought.

So apparently, for years, if you wanted to be 'Green' you could pay extra to have your power sourced from the renewable market rather than the general fossil fuel power market. The power is all combined on the same grid, but at the time, the renewables cost more per kwh and I imagine this was a way of keeping their introduction on to the grid politically palatable to people who didn't want to pay for them.

However, now in Europe the script has flipped. Natural gas prices have gone through the roof. Much of Great Britain's electricity on the fossil fuel side comes from natural gas, so electricity prices are way up. However, the video noted that the people who paid for years to use electricity from renewable sources were seeing the same increases as everyone else. Why should this be the case? The cost of wind power didn't suddenly spike.

So if renewables are more expensive the people who want them should pay more. And if renewables are cheaper, "We're all in this together."

(I would apologize for the excessive use of quotation marks in this post, but they are a renewable resource )

Power costs have risen in the uk and Europe mainly as a “ precaution “ rather then any real cost input rises , many governments are reading “ windfall taxes “ to claw back knee jerk prices rises. I expect electricity prices to fall back during 2022/2023

In Europe , the grid pricing is in effect an average , but gas plants are used to provide renewable support , so these plants are priced into renewables as few people have smart meters or hourly tariffs

Hence even if you are paying for a high renewables mix , ie your retail company is maximising renewable to grid spot buying , you still get hit by gas rises. One answer is hourly smart meter tariffs , in theory the consumer chooses the supply , in practice I think it just screws us as we have to cook food at fixed times for example

 

[Goboatingnow]

I don't have nearly the problem with municipal owned utilities that basically work for the people at no profit long term. Love our water company.
The CA utilities that are investor owned just increases the cost and incentive to increase what can get pulled out. Also the fight against home solar has given them a black eye.

I agree , the privatisation of power generation has not benefited consumers it should be reversed , major utilities should all be in public hands

 

[billt1827]

Power costs have risen in the uk and Europe mainly as a “ precaution “ rather then any real cost input rises , many governments are reading “ windfall taxes “ to claw back knee jerk prices rises. I expect electricity prices to fall back during 2022/2023

I think not. Natural gas prices have increased from around 50-80p per therm before 2021 and are now 515p per therm, peaked at 642p per therm in August. This is due to the Ukraine war and Russia's actions in cutting off gas supplies to Europe. The UK doesn't get much gas from Russia but international costs are reflected in UK prices. Our electricity cost is going to increase in October from about 31p per kWh to about 58p per kWh and is likely to increase again in January and April next year. It was 13p per kWh 18 months ago.

Gas is used for about 50% of UK electricity generation so increased gas costs directly affect electricity costs. The other half mainly comes from nuclear and wind which have fixed costs, but they get paid a rate which is closely connected to the rate paid for gas based generation so renewable generators are raking in large profits at the moment. The contracts were designed to give renewable generators a reasonable profit under the circumstances prevailing when they were written, obviously didn't allow for drastic changes in fossil fuel energy prices.

 

[hankcurt]

One answer is hourly smart meter tariffs , in theory the consumer chooses the supply , in practice I think it just screws us as we have to cook food at fixed times for example

This is a good point, and why I believe that an all electric system needs to be designed like a hot water system at the household level. I can shift my energy consumption for hot water by a few hours and not notice any difference because I have a tank of hot water available that covers the difference.

If at the household or perhaps neighborhood level, there was enough storage to move grid demand by two to four hours, the ability to match demand to available sources makes cost cheaper for grid operators and makes renewables an option for a larger portion of demand.

To tie this back in to the original subject of the thread. The essence of what a thermostat control program does is to let the power company use the thermal mass of your home as a battery to shift the load on the electrical system.

 

[Goboatingnow]

This is a good point, and why I believe that an all electric system needs to be designed like a hot water system at the household level. I can shift my energy consumption for hot water by a few hours and not notice any difference because I have a tank of hot water available that covers the difference.

If at the household or perhaps neighborhood level, there was enough storage to move grid demand by two to four hours, the ability to match demand to available sources makes cost cheaper for grid operators and makes renewables an option for a larger portion of demand.

To tie this back in to the original subject of the thread. The essence of what a thermostat control program does is to let the power company use the thermal mass of your home as a battery to shift the load on the electrical system.

Yes but I don’t want dinner at 4 in the morning , this is “ Ryanair” style economics , high prices when people have no choice , imagine the uproar if bread was 3x between. 7am and 10 am and 1/2x on a Thursday at 4:40 am !

 

[hankcurt]

“ Ryanair” style economics

Ha Ha. That made me remember this piece by Al Hess. "If airlines sold paint..."

 

[Goboatingnow]

Ha Ha. That made me remember this piece by Al Hess. "If airlines sold paint..."

Indeed this is where smart metering and hourly tariffs is taking us. Despite being “ sold a pup “ telling us it’s a great thing , in my opinion such schemes exploit the inelasticity of peoples time , I for one have registered as an objector to smart meter rollout.

 

[740GLE]

That or it’ll just strengthen the need for behind the meter batteries, the costs and financials are starting to make them very tempting.

 

[Goboatingnow]

That or it’ll just strengthen the need for behind the meter batteries, the costs and financials are starting to make them very tempting.

Not living in a house at all looks more and more tempting too

 

[SparkyJJO]

Not living in a house at all looks more and more tempting too

Apartments suck. Can't convince me to want to ever do that again. And it costs more long term anyway.

 

[Hedges]

I think not. Natural gas prices have increased from around 50-80p per therm before 2021 and are now 515p per therm, peaked at 642p per therm in August. This is due to the Ukraine war and Russia's actions in cutting off gas supplies to Europe. The UK doesn't get much gas from Russia but international costs are reflected in UK prices. Our electricity cost is going to increase in October from about 31p per kWh to about 58p per kWh and is likely to increase again in January and April next year. It was 13p per kWh 18 months ago.

From 31p to 58p; that's an 87% increase.

In California, we pay $0.25 or $0.50/kWh, depending on time of day.
Wholesale generation is about $0.025/kWh, and we're told that's all our PV surplus backfed to the grid is worth (if that.)
So power generation (fuel + equipment and operation/maintenance) is 10% or 5% of retail.

For our electric cost to increase 87%, to $0.47 or $0.94, would require an increase in wholesale by $0.22 or $0.44. That is, a gas price at least 8.7x or 17.4x the previous price.

This graph puts European gas prices 10x higher than 2 years ago, but only 3x or 4x what they were before Russian invasion of Ukraine:

Natural Gas Prices In Europe

278.5

www.barrons.com

Your gas prices are quoted per MWh, not in thermal units? 268 Euro, $266:

European natural gas prices surge 36% after Russia halts Nord Stream 1 flows indefinitely

Europe's economic crisis deepened Monday as Russia further squeezed energy supplies to the continent, with German electricity prices soaring 23%.

markets.businessinsider.com

That would be $0.027 per kWh. Whether efficiency of converting from gas to electricity is 30% of 70%, this does not support even a 10p or $0.10/kWh increase in electric prices.

Checking US prices I get a similar $0.032/kWh for natural gas.

US natural gas prices spike to 14-year high. Here's why

US natural gas prices have skyrocketed to levels unseen since 2008, a spike that threatens to offset the benefits of falling prices at the gas pump.

www.cnn.com

Me thinks the increase in natural gas prices has nothing to do with the big increase in electric rates.
So Go Boating's statement "Power costs have risen in the uk and Europe mainly as a “ precaution “ rather then any real cost input rises" appears supported by the figures.

It may be a pre-emptive electric price increase to decrease electric consumption; otherwise if buying enough natural gas to generate the electricity, gas prices might increase another 10x.

 

[740GLE]

When ~70% of the northeast generation comes from natural gas and every plant buys on the spot market pipeline, yes electric rates follow natural gas prices.

 

[Hedges]

Yes but - if the price of natural gas goes up 20%, by $0.01 per kWh to $0.035/kWh, does it follow that retail electricity prices should go up 20%, $0.05 or $0.10/kWh?
Should prices double, as just happened in Europe?

We used to pay $1.00/lb. for chicken. Today I see $2.00/lb.
The farmer gets paid $0.10/lb. for chicken, and if he is lucky makes $0.01 profit.
If feed goes up and farmer charges $0.20/lb. for chicken, does that explain the $1.00 extra, doubling, of retail price?

 

[time2roll]

Yes but I don’t want dinner at 4 in the morning , this is “ Ryanair” style economics , high prices when people have no choice , imagine the uproar if bread was 3x between. 7am and 10 am and 1/2x on a Thursday at 4:40 am !

Make dinner any time you like. Just the A/C is being controlled as was signed up by the home owner.

The alternative could be rolling blackouts and then you have NO A/C vs 78 setting and no tv, microwave, no lights, no garage door opener, electric oven, fridge is getting warm, no Keurig, and all the rest.

 

[740GLE]

Yes but - if the price of natural gas goes up 20%, by $0.01 per kWh to $0.035/kWh, does it follow that retail electricity prices should go up 20%, $0.05 or $0.10/kWh?
Should prices double, as just happened in Europe?

We used to pay $1.00/lb. for chicken. Today I see $2.00/lb.
The farmer gets paid $0.10/lb. for chicken, and if he is lucky makes $0.01 profit.
If feed goes up and farmer charges $0.20/lb. for chicken, does that explain the $1.00 extra, doubling, of retail price?

Stop comparing retail prices (which are usually contracted for months and months at a time) to spot prices.

Price price of chicken didn’t fluctuate 10-100 times every day.

When retail prices are set for 6mo blocks there is so much risk to hedge in todays energy markets.

last year who knew diesel would be <$5/gallon.

 

[JRH]

Stop comparing retail prices (which are usually contracted for months and months at a time) to spot prices.

Price price of chicken didn’t fluctuate 10-100 times every day.

When retail prices are set for 6mo blocks there is so much risk to hedge in todays energy markets.

last year who knew diesel would be <$5/gallon.

In the futures commodities markets , you buy in the future for your future needs and when you need it , to lock prices in at a fixed amount. and you can sell early or take delivery .. you also use options to hedge a contract you own if things go south..
been in it 30 years and it is tricky…
very tricky… it’s fun ,but tricky to not get whacked….

 

[740GLE]

But there is no generator that buys natural gas in the futures market (firm contract for pipeline capacity). They buy spot prices on the pipeline, and when costs don’t equate they don’t run.

But the utility must buy firm contracts and are left holding the bag of a broken futures market and pass it along to ratepayers.

 

[JRH]

But there is no generator that buys natural gas in the futures market (firm contract for pipeline capacity). They buy spot prices on the pipeline, and when costs don’t equate they don’t run.

But the utility must buy firm contracts and are left holding the bag of a broken futures market and pass it along to ratepayers.

Trust me they have hedges in place … they are not babes in the woods in the futures market… im not saying they can’t take a hit.. that’s just business ,but no one just steps out and hopes for the best…except us regular folks…haaa

 

[Hedges]

Stop comparing retail prices (which are usually contracted for months and months at a time) to spot prices.

What I'm saying is, if natural gas is on the order of $0.025/kWh and goes up a couple pennies (impacting wholesale electric generation), does that mean retail electricity has to double, go up by $0.25/kWh?

Sure, it has to go up at least a couple pennies. But not necessarily by the same percentage.

If you show me contract wholesale prices, or spot prices averaging over time, of $0.25/kWh for natural gas, then it can explain the electric rate hike in Europe.

last year who knew diesel would be <$5/gallon.

I've seen it before.
When I bought my pickup, diesel was less than regular, maybe $2.50/gallon?
Later it was more than Supreme, like $5.50/gallon.

 

[Nobodybusiness]

Having been without power in 1989 for 4- 5 weeks , in 90 degree heat, I love my power company.. I love them dearly…
but I still keep my eye on the top dogs of the outfit…
ya would have to have been there to understand…

peace ,love ,happiness… J.

Hurricane Hugo?

Our power was off for 27 days. Not bad considering but so were gas stations and Grocery stores and everything else.

Fortunately for us the city was still relatively small then and everyone knew each other.

Now if it happened it would be chaos.

 

[Nobodybusiness]

What I'm saying is, if natural gas is on the order of $0.025/kWh and goes up a couple pennies (impacting wholesale electric generation), does that mean retail electricity has to double, go up by $0.25/kWh?

Sure, it has to go up at least a couple pennies. But not necessarily by the same percentage.

If you show me contract wholesale prices, or spot prices averaging over time, of $0.25/kWh for natural gas, then it can explain the electric rate hike in Europe.




I've seen it before.
When I bought my pickup, diesel was less than regular, maybe $2.50/gallon?
Later it was more than Supreme, like $5.50/gallon.

When I bought my First New Ford F-350 7.3 Superduty Diesel ( Which I still have BTW) I was paying .90 - $1.00 gallon and that was 2000.

Diesel has ALWAYS been lower than Gas until recently.

 

[JRH]

Hurricane Hugo?

Our power was off for 27 days. Not bad considering but so were gas stations and Grocery stores and everything else.

Fortunately for us the city was still relatively small then and everyone knew each other.

Now if it happened it would be chaos.

YEP … OLD HUGO…..A great teacher about life for a few million people…