Do We Need a Control Group?

[sunshine]

Define mute.

All you need to do is unwatch it. You will be watching it by default now that you posted.

Yes. I suppose we can....but then we will never know why that member. or even moderator, is never seen around these parts again!

 

[Bob B]

Okay, Bob but serious question. Don't we have that control group? There is plainly an identifiable group that will not get vaccinated and that have been infected but will not get vaccinated. I am not sure what you are proposing. I do think setting aside the immediate consequences of sickness and death we need to be paying much more attention to the many ways long covid presents, many unknown, in even asymptomatic cases. There is a lot of speculation about possible long-term consequences of the vaccine (I would argue unfounded) but little discussion of the known symptoms of long-term Covid and the expectation that more will be coming.

We DO have that control group .... but it seems to me that with the new variants there is nowhere near as much need to put so much pressure on that group to fall in line. These variants seem to infect the vaccinated just as well.
It just seems like so many feel the need to vilify that group and pressure them into something that may be unnecessary for them ..... maybe they already have natural immunity that is arguable better than the vaccine .... and if we want to do long term studies about Covid and the vaccine, we need that group.

We are getting a new variant every couple of weeks now and it just isn't possible to keep up with each one and whether or not natural immunity or the vaccine is more effective against those new variants.

That is one reason I think things like Fluvoxamine are so interesting. I'm not sure the benefit of it varies that much based on the variant.
Again, don't want to get into an extended argument about Fluvoxamine .... it is just one example of a medicine with a LONG track record.

 

[Cdkipp]

We DO have that control group .... but it seems to me that with the new variants there is nowhere near as much need to put so much pressure on that group to fall in line. These variants seem to infect the vaccinated just as well.
It just seems like so many feel the need to vilify that group and pressure them into something that may be unnecessary for them ..... maybe they already have natural immunity that is arguable better than the vaccine .... and if we want to do long term studies about Covid and the vaccine, we need that group.

We are getting a new variant every couple of weeks now and it just isn't possible to keep up with each one and whether or not natural immunity or the vaccine is more effective against those new variants.

That is one reason I think things like Fluvoxamine are so interesting. I'm not sure the benefit of it varies that much based on the variant.
Again, don't want to get into an extended argument about Fluvoxamine .... it is just one example of a medicine with a LONG track record.

I agree that Fluvoxamine looks great. I think it is too early to say what Omicron will or won't do as you know. Will the vaccine hold against serious disease for Omicron? Will Omicron be a light disease and provide cross-immunity against Delta? Will Delta outcompete Omicron?

I hear the pharma companies talking about new vaccines but I also am hearing the immunologists saying we should stick with the existing vaccine against the original Covid as long as possible since it will provide a broader base of immunity. Who knows? We will find out.

I think where we differ is that I accept the ambiguities but think we should stick with the worldwide consensus of the scientific community in looking at population-based solutions. An each man for himself approach is doomed.

 

[Bob B]

Just to up the ante one more step .... how should we define unvaccinated?

Now that we know that covid is moving between species and infecting animals .... so we need to vaccinate all of them .... after all, they must have the potential to spread Covid back to us if they got it from us.

The cat is now out of the bag ... pun intended.

I actually woke up the other night having a weird dream that my daughter's cat had infected us with Covid. Better not let it out to roam around and get Covid from the neighbor's cat ...and on and on .... how extensive is the unvaccinated risk?

Is unvaccinated in a year going to mean we didn't get that 3rd booster shot?

I think we just need to pay more attention to how we are going to treat it because we are all going to get it unless we live on a deserted island ... and then maybe a fish infects us.

 

[Bob B]

If it's at all possible, I'd like to have this thread be a more ..... think outside the box .... kind of thread. No bad ideas that we need to rebuff by doing an internet search that contradicts an idea .... lets see if we can THINK outside the box.

Do you have an idea that brings a new twist to things?

 

[Cdkipp]

Is unvaccinated in a year going to mean we didn't get that 3rd booster shot?

I am pretty sure the definition will change with the facts on the ground. But what good does it do to call someone vaccinated when you know they are no longer immune protected? Seems to undermine the entire purpose. I just don't think they have a good way of projecting the immunity level of a previously infected person yet especially on a population basis. With the vaccinated, they actually have groups that are being continuously monitored as part of the original ongoing trials. There are a lot of scientists out there opining that a combo of vaccine and previous infection gives you the broadest based immunity. But recommending getting Covid is insane.

 

[Bob B]

I am pretty sure the definition will change with the facts on the ground. But what good does it do to call someone vaccinated when you know they are no longer immune protected? Seems to undermine the entire purpose. I just don't think they have a good way of projecting the immunity level of a previously infected person yet especially on a population basis. With the vaccinated, they actually have groups that are being continuously monitored as part of the original ongoing trials. There are a lot of scientists out there opining that a combo of vaccine and previous infection gives you the broadest based immunity. But recommending getting Covid is insane.

I didn't recommend getting Covid .... I am just starting to think it is inevitable that we all will .... just like a cold.

I also think that maybe we should change our thinking of the vaccine .... maybe it isn't a vaccine at all, but maybe it's a treatment.
A vaccine gives immunity to a disease .... this vaccine doesn't do that. It still allows people to be infected, but likely with a less severe case.
Isn't that the definition of a treatment?

As I said ..... more outside the box type thinking.

 

[Cdkipp]

I didn't recommend getting Covid .... I am just starting to think it is inevitable that we all will .... just like a cold.

I also think that maybe we should change our thinking of the vaccine .... maybe it isn't a vaccine at all, but maybe it's a treatment.
A vaccine gives immunity to a disease .... this vaccine doesn't do that. It still allows people to be infected, but likely with a less severe case.
Isn't that the definition of a treatment?

As I said ..... more outside the box type thinking.

No the simple way to break it down in the case of communicable disease is that a treatment is given to someone that is infected. A vaccine is given to someone not infected to provoke the immune repsonse to a specific disease. Almost no vaccine is 100% effective as it dpends on the innate strength of the human immune system. Most common example is flu vaccines which do not come near approaching the effectivness of the Covid vaccine and last 4 months or so.

 

[Johnson]

I didn't recommend getting Covid .... I am just starting to think it is inevitable that we all will .... just like a cold.

I also think that maybe we should change our thinking of the vaccine .... maybe it isn't a vaccine at all, but maybe it's a treatment.
A vaccine gives immunity to a disease .... this vaccine doesn't do that. It still allows people to be infected, but likely with a less severe case.
Isn't that the definition of a treatment?

As I said ..... more outside the box type thinking.

No current vaccine, no diet, no medicine yet invented will prevent death. But this vaccine is both cheap and effective. It trains our immune system to respond to the virus, just like lifting weights grows muscle and reduces body fat, but the vaccines require a lot less effort.

I am all for thinking out of the box, but I am interested in practical solutions and for me the hardest part of getting the vaccine was making the appointment as so many others around here were trying to do the same. (And I live in a conservative county)

 

[Cdkipp]

I didn't recommend getting Covid .... I am just starting to think it is inevitable that we all will .... just like a cold.

I also think that maybe we should change our thinking of the vaccine .... maybe it isn't a vaccine at all, but maybe it's a treatment.
A vaccine gives immunity to a disease .... this vaccine doesn't do that. It still allows people to be infected, but likely with a less severe case.
Isn't that the definition of a treatment?

As I said ..... more outside the box type thinking.

Outside the box approach is recognizing that the majority of infections occur inside and that most buildings have horrible ventilation. This probably will necessitate government intervention but we need indoor air quality standards for public buildings and an easy way to measure ventilation (CO2 measurement can be used). It doesn't need to be expensive, open windows and HEPA filters make a huge difference, but it also could, and should, lead to a new industry and create jobs. I envision businesses being able to advertise their indoor air quality as a means to draw customers. The fact is we are incredibly careful with drinking water standards but then spend the entire day rebreathing other people's air. We could create a healthier living environment generally and get away from a lot of this back and forth. It is the logical step.

 

[MurphyGuy]

One big concern I have read about was over the possibility of some infertility effects from the virus .... Covid itself may have a similar side effect.
I read an article that went into great detail on a study that on the surface seemed to show that miscarriage's weren't greatly increased in pregnant women who had gotten the vaccine...... the thing the study ignored, however, was that pregnant women vaccinated in the first trimester actually had an 82% rate of miscarriage.

I didn't save a link to that article, and if you choose to no believe that ... I'm not going to go back and try to find the information ..... I guess what I'm trying to indicate with this thread is that I believe we can't begin to know yet with any certainty that there won't be significant side effects from Covid .... or from the vaccine .... that haven't been fully revealed yet ...... hence, the NEED for a control group.

Then stop reading the conspiracy websites if you don't want false information that will generate mocking.

 

[Bob B]

No current vaccine, no diet, no medicine yet invented will prevent death. But this vaccine is both cheap and effective. It trains our immune system to respond to the virus, just like lifting weights grows muscle and reduces body fat, but the vaccines require a lot less effort.

I am all for thinking out of the box, but I am interested in practical solutions and for me the hardest part of getting the vaccine was making the appointment as so many others around here were trying to do the same. (And I live in a conservative county)

I think the one danger of the vaccine push is that it may give some a false sense of security .... These new variants are so transmissible that is seems likely that we will all get it eventually.

Other things like Vitamin D levels, Zinc, vitamin C, Fluvoxamine also help make the virus less severe. I think we need to be doing as many things as possible to mitigate risk instead of totally relying on a vaccine that seems to be getting less and less effective against the variants.

 

[Cdkipp]

I think the one danger of the vaccine push is that it may give some a false sense of security .... These new variants are so transmissible that is seems likely that we will all get it eventually.

Other things like Vitamin D levels, Zinc, vitamin C, Fluvoxamine also help make the virus less severe. I think we need to be doing as many things as possible to mitigate risk instead of totally relying on a vaccine that seems to be getting less and less effective against the variants.

We have ways of doing it. An N95 mask combined with vaccine reduces your chances of infection to virtually 0.

 

[Bob B]

Outside the box approach is recognizing that the majority of infections occur inside and that most buildings have horrible ventilation. This probably will necessitate government intervention but we need indoor air quality standards for public buildings and an easy way to measure ventilation (CO2 measurement can be used). It doesn't need to be expensive, open windows and HEPA filters make a huge difference, but it also could, and should, lead to a new industry and create jobs. I envision businesses being able to advertise their indoor air quality as a means to draw customers. The fact is we are incredibly careful with drinking water standards but then spend the entire day rebreathing other people's air. We could create a healthier living environment generally and get away from a lot of this back and forth. It is the logical step.

I totally agree that IAQ is important. I used to work in a building control industry and measuring CO2 levels was a major strategy for energy saving .... so, maybe strategies could be implemented where the overall result is savings and at the same time lower virus transmission.
We achieved a major energy savings in schools by monitoring CO2 levels in individual classrooms and increase or decrease the amount of outdoor air to keep the CO2 levels below a certain level. In a commercial building there is very significant cost to condition outdoor air ... both in the winter and summer.

 

[Johnson]

I think the one danger of the vaccine push is that it may give some a false sense of security ....

They don't seem to give a false sense of security, like every one else around here, I still wear a mask and 89% of the people around here are vaccinated.

These new variants are so transmissible that is seems likely that we will all get it eventually.

We will be getting the virus, just that the vaccinated have far fewer problems and thus less of a burden to the health care system.

Other things like Vitamin D levels, Zinc, vitamin C, Fluvoxamine also help make the virus less severe. I think we need to be doing as many things as possible to mitigate risk instead of totally relying on a vaccine that seems to be getting less and less effective against the variants.

Problem with suplements in general is that most of us do not need them and are a waste of money. But you could ask your doctor to have a blood test done to see if you have any deficiencies.

 

[Cdkipp]

They don't seem to give a false sense of security, like every one else around here, I still wear a mask and 89% of the people around here are vaccinated.


We will be getting the virus, just that the vaccinated have far fewer problems and thus less of a burden to the health care system.


Problem with suplements in general is that most of us do not need them and are a waste of money. But you could ask your doctor to have a blood test done to see if you have any deficiencies.

I am boosted and still wear a mask indoors when shopping etc.

 

[Cdkipp]

They don't seem to give a false sense of security, like every one else around here, I still wear a mask and 89% of the people around here are vaccinated.


We will be getting the virus, just that the vaccinated have far fewer problems and thus less of a burden to the health care system.


Problem with suplements in general is that most of us do not need them and are a waste of money. But you could ask your doctor to have a blood test done to see if you have any deficiencies.

I always view, mostly ignored, governmental precautions as a compromise. These folks are trying to get reelected and keep the economy going. When I see infectious disease experts and epidemiologists behaving much more conservatively than the government recommendations, I take my cue from them. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/12/upshot/covid-epidemiologists.html

 

[Bob B]

Problem with suplements in general is that most of us do not need them and are a waste of money. But you could ask your doctor to have a blood test done to see if you have any deficiencies.

I did that for my vitamin D levels and found that initially they were on the low to middle part of the range. Boosting that to the upper 2/3 is a strategy that is good for a lot of things, not just Covid.
Most adults need around 4000 IU of vitamin D to get your levels up .... in winter or more northern latitudes, supplementation is the only way to get good vitamin D levels .... well, outside tanning beds and I don't want to recommend those.

 

[Bob B]

I always view, mostly ignored, governmental precautions as a compromise. These folks are trying to get reelected and keep the economy going. When I see infectious disease experts and epidemiologists behaving much more conservatively than the government recommendations, I take my cue from them. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/12/upshot/covid-epidemiologists.html

Sorry .... it won't let me read that .... and I don't want a NY Times subscription

 

[Cdkipp]

Sorry .... it won't let me read that .... and I don't want a NY Times subscription

Understand. I thought their Covid stuff was free. I will see if I can copy the chart.