How will Batteries change the world?

[svetz]

The world is always changing, how will the world change as the price of energy storage continues to drop?

ref

Energy storage would have to cost $10 to $20/kWh for a wind-solar mix with storage to be competitive with a nuclear power plant providing baseload electricity. And competing with a natural gas peaker plant would require energy storage costs to fall to $5/kWh.

But those figures are only for scenarios in which solar and wind meet power demand 100 percent of the time. If other sources meet demand just 5 percent of the time, storage could work at a price tag of $150/kWh.

So, how far away is that Utopian future? Sounds like we're there...

• ref: Battery Pack Prices Fall As Market Ramps Up With Market Average At $156/kWh In 2019
• ref: Bloomberg New Energy Finance report suggests battery pack prices will reach the $100/kwh mark by 2023.

(The $159 prices is probably volume pricing or what it costs Tesla to make their own).

 

[svetz]

I remember the energy crisis and always thought it would be solved by working directly on the problem. The U.S. Department of Energy (DoE) spent a lot of time and money coming up with solutions to which there was never an economic driver to force things to change.

But that just goes to show how bad I am at predicting the future.

That's why it's somewhat surprising to me that decrease costs of batteries is primarily because of a demand for EV cars. The credit for that primarily goes to those that are concerned about the environment, everyday people spending extra because they believe in something (or like me are tech-freaks). In the U.S., credit also has to go to various levels of government for incentives on energy such as solar and EV cars otherwise the cost of the technology would remain out of reach.

Keeping in mind this is for fun and I'm not an expert.... in the next decade I forecast:

• Most people won't notice what's going on, the pace of change will seem slow as usual
• Utilities... more changes coming to the grid and public utilities than there has been in the last 140 years combined.
  • Local utilities will purchase their own energy storage devices to handle neighborhood needs and prevent short term disruptions, but primarily to become brokers of energy.
  • Local utilities will develop something akin to a stock exchange, but where they're trading (buying/selling) energy. For example, why should my local supplier (a distributor) buy from FPL (the biggest state-wide generator) if a nearby utility has a glut and is selling it cheaper? This will be computer controlled as it needs to be very dynamic and fast (e.g., a cloud moving over a city could eliminate the glut).
  • In winter, southern areas can supply energy to heat northern homes, and vice-versa in summer.
  • The world is a globe, a part of it is always in sunshine and that part can export power to the rest. For example, the west coast is three hours later, so a glut of solar power from 3-6 can help fuel east coast needs 6-9.
  • Loss of revenue to fossil fuel exporting countries will make them unstable, but since there won't be as much value to them there will be less outside interference.
• Cleaner Air and lower CO2 emissions over the next decade, but global warming continuing (it's like a cargo ship, takes a while to change course)
• Powerwalls will become more popular.
  • More big names will get into the powerwall industry, prices will drop.
  • Home Automation will start to integrate with powerwalls.
  • There will be a mess in terms of standards (that is, there won't be a predominant communication standard).
  • Local Utilities will want to use home storage, and probably offer incentives for it. They'll setup standards for this.
• Cars - Gasoline powered cars will still be popular
  • More people will start to work from home (10% less traffic) and HEPA air filtration will become a standard feature in cars.
  • In a two car family there will be the EV workhorse and the gas car that is used for long distance trips (who wants to wait for the car to recharge when you've got 2.5 pre-teens in the back asking if we're there yet?).
  • An EV cars battery will become a standard energy home storage device for emergencies.
  • The number of gasoline stations will drop by 20%.
  • Range will continue to be an issue for EVs, and multiple solutions will appear
    • swappable battery packs
    • Car rental industry will offer "fresh" cars (e.g., drive 400 miles and swap to new rental).
    • U-haul offers a tow-battery pack you can exchange for a fresh one every 800 miles (or recharge overnight)
• Politics: Democrats and Republicans still oppose one another (I wanted to get at least one right, this is sorta like death and taxes)

 

[HRTKD]

When electricity becomes close to "free", I'm going to leave the light on when I leave the room.

I drive an EV car now. It's my second one. With the prior car, the range was only 110 miles and I was careful with that range. Drive like a grandma, don't use heat or A/C, keep the speed low, etc. The new car has 270 miles of range. I drive a lot faster, use heat or A/C any time. Heck, I even use the windshield wipers now! My charging is paid for me 95% of the time at work.

Conservation is a lot less likely when electricity doesn't cost much.

 

[svetz]

I was curious about how much power is lost via transmission and with a bit of googling came across some interesting stuff. This article says 35% of the energy consumed in power plants is lost due to thermodynamic inefficiencies before it even gets to the transmission line, so only 65% of electrical power is available from fossil fuel's total potential. So, what's interesting about that is every 100 W your panels make is 153 W of chemical energy burned, before transmission losses! I wonder if those, "how many trees" your panels just saved consider that? So, transmission losses... all ruled by Ohm's law, reducing the current reduces the heat by a square, so the higher the voltage the lower the losses will be. The voltage on long distance lines varies but is very high (>~110kV). Then it's stepped down to 10,000V or so and runs across the lines you see on wooden poles. From there it's stepped down to the 240V (120V split phase) you see in the U.S. Transmission losses vary greatly by state. Check out the graph to the right... Transmission and distribution losses tend to be lower in rural states like Wyoming and North Dakota. Why? Less densely populated states have more high-voltage, low-loss transmission lines and fewer lower-voltage, high-loss distribution lines. So shipping power across the country and continents as predicted above to take advantage of where energy is occurring sounds feasible, and that could reduce the need for batteries. One of the things that localized energy storage will do is reduce these losses. By local distribution companies have local storage (to store solar generated during the day and dispense power at night). LiFePO4 typically has a round-trip efficiency over 95%. Since distribution is far closer to the home, less losses overall.

 

[HRTKD]

I was thinking Wyoming has low loss because:
1. They have more power generating stations. Fewer people means it's easier to plop a plant down where needed.
2. Easier routing of power lines.

I can't explain Idaho. That's a strange one. I expected them to be similar to Wyoming.

 

[svetz]

So @Ampster reported cells at $116/kWh and he's not buying them by the megawatt as a utility would.
Fasten those seat belts kiddies... things are going to start to speed up and get more heated. Yep, she's singing about solar with batteries........

 

[svetz]

And it's happening... From June 16th:

California To Fight Wildfires With Microgrids And Batteries​

... California’s energy regulators just laid the framework for utilities to develop localized microgrids with battery storage ...

 

[svetz]

ref:

...The US needs to add 20 GW of peaking capacity to its grid over the next 10 years...Of that, about 60 percent must be installed between 2023 and 2027..."Peakers are expensive,"..."Energy storage is starting to get very close to the point where it can just beat a gas peaker, head-to-head, purely on an economic basis."

That was from 2018 and prices are still falling....

Also, found a database of energy storage projects: https://www.sandia.gov/ess-ssl/global-energy-storage-database/. Currently out of 1,687 projects:

• 19 Lithium Ion Titanate
• 121 LiFePO4
• 452 Lithium ion

 

[svetz]

 

[schmism]

Grid scale batteries were still fiction until Tesla stepped up and showed the world what was possible with Hornsdale. Its been turning a bunch of heads and the other installations across the world have been racing to complete their own MW scale installs.