Is Solar really worth it?

[offgriddle]

Next to the report link is 3 little dots with a down arrow. Tap that and the edit function is there.

Awwwww there it is, thanks NMW

 

[Vanhalo]

What I paid in 2014 vs. now (last column). I spent about $30,000 on the Geothermal and Solar.

3400 square feet
walk out basement
family of 5
SETN
running AC 8 months per year
No gas heat after adding Geothermal
Water Heater only used 36 kWh for September because of the Geo.

40,000 kwh per year 2013-2014
18,000kwh estimated in 2019-2020 (without solar)
Solar generating 6500kwh per year (including grid tie incentives of +2 cents per kwh)
11,500kwh per year (after solar) $1150

Read Date​	Bill Date​	KWH Used​	9.7 cents​	​	​	​
​	​	​	Electric​	Gas​	​	Geothermal +16 305w Solar Panels​
5/22/2014​	5/23/2014​	3581​	$389.23​	$29.22 ​	1980 AC 7 tons/Gas Furnaces​	​
4/22/2014​	4/23/2014​	2763​	$311.42​	$32.76 ​	1980 AC 7 tons/Gas Furnaces​	​
3/20/2014​	3/21/2014​	2664​	$299.35​	$57.81 ​	1980 AC 7 tons/Gas Furnaces​	​
2/17/2014​	2/19/2014​	2708​	$288.89​	$94.75 ​	1980 AC 7 tons/Gas Furnaces​	​
1/16/2014​	1/21/2014​	2803​	$296.39​	$150.81 ​	1980 AC 7 tons/Gas Furnaces​	​
12/17/2013​	12/19/2013​	2823​	$294.20​	$97.81 ​	1980 AC 7 tons/Gas Furnaces​	​
11/15/2013​	11/19/2013​	2718​	$300.04​	$81.07 ​	1980 AC 7 tons/Gas Furnaces​	$93 (2019)​
10/15/2013​	10/21/2013​	3895​	$382.74​	$28.42 ​	1980 AC 7 tons/Gas Furnaces​	$76 (2019)​
9/14/2013​	9/20/2013​	4616​	$444.67​	$21.87 ​	1980 AC 7 tons/Gas Furnaces​	$86 (2019)​
8/15/2013​	8/21/2013​	5258​	$518.32​	$21.77 ​	1980 AC 7 tons/Gas Furnaces​	$113 (2019)​
7/15/2013​	7/22/2013​	5163​	$510.27​	$20.98 ​	1980 AC 7 tons/Gas Furnaces​	​
6/14/2013​	6/21/2013​	4630​	$464.90​	$22.56 ​	1980 AC 7 tons/Gas Furnaces​	​
​	​	40,041​	​	($4,500.42)​	659.83​	​
​	​	​	​	​	$5,160​	​

 

[SolarRat]

Earlier we just said, $100 per month for 15 years is a cost of $18,000 in electricity bills. But, when you factor inflation in, the real number is ~$21,882.

So far this century the average U.S. rate of inflation for electricity is 2.73% per year. So, if your average bill this year is $100/month, what will it be in 25 years?

Year 1: 100x12= $1,200
Year 2: $1200*1.0273 = $1,233
Year 3: $1232*1.0273 = $1,266
Year 5: ... = $1,337
Year 10: ... = $1,529
Year 15: ... = $1,750 ($21,882)
Year 20: ... = $2,002 ($31,273)
Year 25: ... = $2,290 ($42,233)

That is, in 25 years with 2.73% inflation you will have paid a total of $42,233. Over 30 years, it's $54,658.

What @SolarRat's numbers showed you were the future value of a lump sum. It's not a bad way to do it, but it's not quite an apples to apples comparison as there is an erosion to the sum because you're making monthly utility payments. I'll see if I can't find a spreadsheet where I worked it out. Can't swear to it, but for Florida's power rates I think the investment value was actually up around @Sammeh's VTXVX fund (that is, around 7%).

This can be true, especially in states that like to tax the crap out of their residents, but not here. I moved to Florida in 2009 and my rate today is within pennies of what is was then. Here is FPL's (my elec co.) recent proposal:

FPL’s 2017-2020 Base Rate Proposal:
" Our electric service is cleaner and more reliable than ever before – while our typical customer bill is lower than it was a decade ago and among the lowest in the nation. The exceptional value we provide our customers is the direct result of smart, long-term investments we’ve made in advanced infrastructure and cost-saving efficiencies. Our proposed four-year rate plan, beginning in 2017, is being designed to support investments that benefit customers while keeping our typical customer bill lower through 2020 than it was in 2006." https://www.fpl.com/images/en_US/fact-sheet.pdf

My bill today is lower than it was in 2009 thanks to more energy efficient appliances, LED TV's and light bulbs, etc...

 

[offgriddle]

Thanks, the edit works great!

Next to the report link is 3 little dots with a down arrow. Tap that and the edit function is there.

 

[Vanhalo]

This can be true, especially in states that like to tax the crap out of their residents, but not here. I moved to Florida in 2009 and my rate today is within pennies of what is was then. Here is FPL's (my elec co.) recent proposal:

FPL’s 2017-2020 Base Rate Proposal:
" Our electric service is cleaner and more reliable than ever before – while our typical customer bill is lower than it was a decade ago and among the lowest in the nation. The exceptional value we provide our customers is the direct result of smart, long-term investments we’ve made in advanced infrastructure and cost-saving efficiencies. Our proposed four-year rate plan, beginning in 2017, is being designed to support investments that benefit customers while keeping our typical customer bill lower through 2020 than it was in 2006." https://www.fpl.com/images/en_US/fact-sheet.pdf

My bill today is lower than it was in 2009 thanks to more energy efficient appliances, LED TV's and light bulbs, etc...

Yeah that has helped. After investing in a whole house energy monitor I started to understand how my house was using electricity. My old Panasonic Plasma was using 6-9kwh per day. That kind of wastefulness is not tolerated anymore.

 

[Donald Siegel]

We live in the Phoenix, and we have had a few short power outages and a few AC failures over 15 years, where the repair took 24 hours. I have a DIY system not tied to the grid. We can run our backup one room AC on it 8-10 hours with a battery assist where the panels kick in half the 800 watts the batteries the other half. We can run the fridge and fans with the AC off. People in Maine or Nebraska keep wood to burn in a power outage or furnace failure. If you live where 120F is possible it’s nice to have a plan B. Yes we could get a hotel in these cases but with dogs and food in the fridge it’s good to be able to stay. Plus it’s fun to run my PC, lights, soldering iron etc. on the solar power between emergencies.

 

[svetz]

Phoenix also has time of use plans that vary throughout the year... really helps make batteries look economical

​

 

[eddie1261]

This feels like another one of those questions that the answer is "We can't answer for you." A man feeding a wife and 3 kids living in a 4 bedroom house with a finished basement, a huge fridge, a chest freezer, 3 TVs and 5 media devices all on at once has a vastly different consumption pattern than me living with a dog in my 1100 sq ft house. My electric bill in the months where the central AC isn't running is like 55-60 bucks a month. And I can tweak that if I start shutting computers off until I need them. (I just hate having to log on to computers. THAT is how lazy I am!) So to someone in the prime of their life paying over $250 a month for electricity solar is a far more intriguing option than an old man like me looking backward at the bulk of his. Numbers and averages don't lie, and given that I probably have 10-12 years left. Hardly the time to invest in solar.

Ask yourself if you are going to live where you live now for the rest of your life. And if your electricity is expensive, then install solar. Or move. LOL!

Until I checked a minute ago, I didn't know (or care, really) what I was paying per KWH. It's 5.44 cents. I don't know if that is good or bad because I never cared to check. I am so unaware, I didn't even know who my electricity comes from. Because of mergers and acquisitions and such, my company was absorbed early this year and I didn't know by who. I live where I live and I just pay my bill. The only thing I have control over is consumption, not rate. My bill due in October will be $87.03, and that covers a very heavy usage month in September because I had a friend live here for a month as I recovered from knee surgery. That saw a big screen TV, a computer, and some lights running for 5 more hours a day than when he isn't here. (He works a strange shift.)

So the answer is, "I don't know because I don't live your life." I can tell you that I would not live in specific places, like California, if you gave me the house I'd live in. When you cross the border from Arizona into California and gas is immediately $1 more per gallon, that's all I need to know. That plus their draconian violation of my 2nd amendment rights will keep me from even visiting there, much less moving. Can't handle a state so uber liberal.

 

[svetz]

This feels like another one of those questions that the answer is "We can't answer for you."

That's the point of the thread... a discussion on what are the factors someone should look at in order to make that determination themselves because as you said - everyone is different.

... I was paying per KWH. It's 5.44 cents...

Is it okay for me to be really jealous, just for a few minutes? May be even cry a little? Or a whole lot?

... Can't handle a state so uber liberal.

I wonder how many people that voted for those measures end up leaving the state.

 

[gehowi]

3 years ago, without any experience in solar, I started to make my own solarpanels. Bought separate cells and 4mm cheap glass plates. I got max 800W from 6 panels. The standard glass reduces 20%. After 3 years they still deliver the same power and they are shadowed every day. If cells or strings would die, I can simply open the glass plates and replace defective cells or replace to more efficient cells. But they are heavy..

I bought 4* 110Ah deep cycle Lead acid batteries and made an inverter from a chinese driver (good!) and old UPS transformators.
Later I put them in oil to keep them much cooler.
4 batteries was not enough and I added another 4. I got huge imbalance problems very fast, so I bought active balancers which solved that problem.
Still I had just enough power for 1 day in summertime only.

1 year ago I bought 12 Chinese panels 100W each and mounted them on a rotary system on carwheels. So I can track the sun and move it to the best place.
After 3 months I had to replace 3 panels already, damaged by very narrow shadow of the top of a far tree.

I bought 20KW Lifepo4 extra (not without troubles) and now I don't need the grid from April to October. But we had very warm summers the last 2 years. When batteries are +- 80% charged I have power enough for +-3 days without any charge.

I added another 25 100W panels to be able to charge faster when there is sun.

All together I spent +-10000€ and uncountable hours of work. My yearly bill was usually more than 1000€/year and a Kwh costs 0.3€ here.
If grid tied then we have to pay proconsumer tariffs and they don't pay for delivery to the grid anymore. I decided to work off grid.
Break even after at least 10 years and then my batteries will have to be replaced and some panels may be defective/degraded and I will get too old...

In my experience solar is not profitable but it's a good feeling to be not dependent on the grid.
And because my transformators are not connected to ground I can touch any 220V wire without feeling something.. What a relief for my heart

 

[Thor]

I wanted to add my thoughts to this thread having just turned on a new grid tie system about 2 weeks ago. While the economics do work for me in that I’ll pay it back in 8-9 years one additional factor is that it simply feels good to know that I’m reducing my carbon footprint. We can all worry about global warming and wait for someone else to do something, or we can individually make an effort If possible.

i love to look at this little graphic at the bottom of my solaredge dashboard each day


Last year I built an offgrid solar system that runs my entire office as I work from home. In the next couple of years I plan on buying an electric car and charging it entirely with solar.

One spoon of water won’t fill a swimming pool, but 300 million might.

 

[ebertoli]

First half of month bill before solar install. (We just got our system installed and turned on in the last part of September. We're on a similar timeline, Thor!)



After solar was turned on. It was partly cloudy and mostly cloudy for a good bit of time during this period. One day Was only a 15 KWH day and many were hovering right around our projected average of 45 per day. We hit over 60 for only 4 days. Above, we were charged at a higher rate for choosing to use GreenChoice and get our power sourced from wind generation. I don't know, but it looks like that's no longer happening.




Our electric bill, with all of the fees you see, ran us about $160 per month when averaged for the year before the solar install. For what our solar system cost us, it will take us about 11 years to break even. This is in Austin, TX and I think they currently have a pretty good deal with the net metering. Next summer, when we get into the 3rd and 4th tiers, but the sun is also in a better position for production, it will be interesting to see what happens. Our highest production day so far was around 65 KWH. That would put us at about 2000 for a month and a little below our high usage.

Here, for reference, is the August/September bill which was a particularly brutal span of time here with over 100 degree heat almost every day during the billing period.



And for that same period in 2018.



This bill covers the same time period in 2018 as the first two that span our recent solar install (the recent 2019 month's total usage was 1468 KWH):

 

[Xappah]

To me it depends or what you are looking for. I live in South Carolina and hurricanes seem to affect power every summer now.
So I have been watching Will's videos (Thanks Will) and I am slowly making what I am calling a solar room. I plan to have i operational before hurricane season next year.

What I am doing is adding a mini split to 1 room (12,00 btu) so far 8 100 watt panels 2kw inverter (Need 1kw for mini split). To start will be 2 100 ah batteries in series (can add to that) I did get Epever kit. My main goal for now is to get it where it will keep my fridge alive and maybe some cool air. So to me if it works it will be worth it, but not if I am trying to save money. I did get the auto transfer switch so the grid will charge the batteries at night and everything will keep running. I am even working on a frame that will allow me to mount the panels to my roof without any holes in my shingles. I am also looking at how to make a cover for the winter that will help the heat pump work more efficiently, just have to work out the air flow so as to not restrict the unit in the winter. Any way just my 2 cents, hope it helps in some way.

 

[ebertoli]

What I am doing is adding a mini split to 1 room (12,00 btu) so far 8 100 watt panels 2kw inverter (Need 1kw for mini split).

This is also my plan for keeping one room habitable in the event of a grid situation.

 

[cavscout96]

What I paid in 2014 vs. now (last column). I spent about $30,000 on the Geothermal and Solar.

3400 square feet
walk out basement
family of 5
SETN
running AC 8 months per year
No gas heat after adding Geothermal
Water Heater only used 36 kWh for September because of the Geo.

40,000 kwh per year 2013-2014
18,000kwh estimated in 2019-2020 (without solar)
Solar generating 6500kwh per year (including grid tie incentives of +2 cents per kwh)
11,500kwh per year (after solar) $1150

Read Date​	Bill Date​	KWH Used​	9.7 cents​	​	​	​
​	​	​	Electric​	Gas​	​	Geothermal +16 305w Solar Panels​
5/22/2014​	5/23/2014​	3581​	$389.23​	$29.22 ​	1980 AC 7 tons/Gas Furnaces​	​
4/22/2014​	4/23/2014​	2763​	$311.42​	$32.76 ​	1980 AC 7 tons/Gas Furnaces​	​
3/20/2014​	3/21/2014​	2664​	$299.35​	$57.81 ​	1980 AC 7 tons/Gas Furnaces​	​
2/17/2014​	2/19/2014​	2708​	$288.89​	$94.75 ​	1980 AC 7 tons/Gas Furnaces​	​
1/16/2014​	1/21/2014​	2803​	$296.39​	$150.81 ​	1980 AC 7 tons/Gas Furnaces​	​
12/17/2013​	12/19/2013​	2823​	$294.20​	$97.81 ​	1980 AC 7 tons/Gas Furnaces​	​
11/15/2013​	11/19/2013​	2718​	$300.04​	$81.07 ​	1980 AC 7 tons/Gas Furnaces​	​
10/15/2013​	10/21/2013​	3895​	$382.74​	$28.42 ​	1980 AC 7 tons/Gas Furnaces​	​
9/14/2013​	9/20/2013​	4616​	$444.67​	$21.87 ​	1980 AC 7 tons/Gas Furnaces​	$86 (2019)​
8/15/2013​	8/21/2013​	5258​	$518.32​	$21.77 ​	1980 AC 7 tons/Gas Furnaces​	$113 (2019)​
7/15/2013​	7/22/2013​	5163​	$510.27​	$20.98 ​	1980 AC 7 tons/Gas Furnaces​	​
6/14/2013​	6/21/2013​	4630​	$464.90​	$22.56 ​	1980 AC 7 tons/Gas Furnaces​	​
​	​	40,041​	​	($4,500.42)​	659.83​	​
​	​	​	​	​	$5,160​	​

wow. ~80% reduction. What was the geo and solar install? How do you like the geo heating? My wife is cold-natured and LOVES her gas furnace. he will not have an electric heat pump!

 

[Topmaike007]

In Nigeria the cost of bill is high and the funny thing is that we have interrupted power always sometime in 3 days, we might not have power supply, while some have not seen power supply at all for months, joining this forum will YouTube page is something that I am grateful about, can sleep and receive fan and still keep tab of my favourite TV shows

 

[svetz]

... I'll see if I can't find a spreadsheet where I worked it out. Can't swear to it, but for Florida's power rates I think the investment value was actually up around @Sammeh's VTXVX fund (that is, around 7%).

You can copy the spreadsheet from https://drive.google.com/open?id=1PuS3DCnSzouU2hShncxtQ1yTT_qgx7Kp.

This spreadsheet allows you to vary the interest rate to where solar and a mutual fund zero-out, that is it'll tell you what the fund has to make to be as good as solar. For the fund it assumes the initial cost of the solar is put into the fund. It's calculated two different ways for specific types of panels.

Each model assumes for the fund that the cost of the installed system was put into the fund and interested accumulated minus the amount needed to pay the power bill. On the solar side, it's assumed that the money from the power savings is invested into a fund.

In these tables, the SAM was used to calculate the "Power $", "Insurance", and "kWh/yr" accounting for panel degradation over 25 years.

Experiment 1 (Cell D2 Rate)
The year 1 "Fund" (column D) price was the initial cost of the system, and then the future value =FV($D$2/4,4,$C5/4,-$D4) compounded quarterly minus the cost of power.
The Solar (Column E) is the future value based on the savings from the power compounded quarterly adding in the $ savings from generated power and is FV($D$2/4,4,-$C5/4,0).
Column F is the same as Column E, but subtracts out the costs of insurance to see the impact insurance has.
The interest rate (cell D2) was then manually varied to see what the interest rate would have to be on the fund to equal the solar investment (that is, the numbers in row 29 go to 0).

Experiment 2 (Cell J2 Rate)
Columns J and K represent a different way to look at it, which is that with the with the solar the cost of the system puts you in a financial negative with the initial cost of the system that you have to work your way out of. In this case, column J is =FV($J$2/4,4,$C5/4,-$J4) and column K =IF(K4<0,K4+$C4, FV($J$2/4,4,-$C4/4,0)+K4). Again, Cell J2 was manually changed to minimize the number in J29, that should be the amount the fund has to to return in order to equal the value of solar.





Which model is more correct? I don't know, but I tend to think it represents a best and worst case scenario. Would you pull money out of a fund to pay a power bill or put the $ saved into a fund? Probably not, but it's the most apples-to-apples way I could think to compare them.

 

[Vanhalo]

What was the geo and solar install?
How do you like the geo heating?

Geo:
Waterfurnace Series 7 (installed in 2014)

Solar:
Mission Solar MSE305SQ5K Solar Panel (305w)(16x)
Enphase M250 60 (x4)installed in 2015
Enphase M215 60 IG (x12) installed in 2019

We switched from gas heat to Geo.....I do not notice a difference except our thermostat only fluctuates a few degrees year round.
I am insulating the rim joist around the house to see if I can improve the efficiency of the geo heat. The house was built in 1979-80 so it is not sealed like a newer home.

 

[Steve_S]

There are many scenarios that play pout differently and changes the ROI drastically.
I bought a rural property with no powerlines / phone lines nearby (1 kilometer away), knowing that those services could be costly to bring in... The final quote I got was just a hair below 50 Grand ! yup $50,000 CAD , I damned near fell over LAUGHING at the guy who was oh so serious at Hydro One. I actually thought at first he was joking, he wasn't ! Apparently I would have had to pay to replace a transformer which is shared by two other but can't be used for a 3rd. and to replace two poles (for them with their permission) and then to have forest cleared & paths made to bring the lines where I do not want them anyways... They would not even allow me to choose where I wanted the poles / lines or if underground.... They dictated to me... I told them to GET STUFFED !

I then went with spec in hand, to local RE Vendors, they wanted to gouge me as they are FIT (feed in tariff) dealers and tried to "flog" their crap at MSRP+10-20% ! Knowing better IO went out of local to regional and found a Honest Retailer / Wholesaler and when all said & done (including the AC stuff, Genny etc) I was up & running for < %$20,000 CAD That was in 2015 as well.... What I could do with that same amount of cash today ! Ohhhh gosh, don't wanna think on that... I am VERY HAPPY, Independent & FREE from being in SERVITUDE to Big Power Co.... while people down the road sit in darkness during a power outage, I'm happily lit up on the ridge above them... LOL....

 

[svetz]

...I bought a rural property with no powerlines ... The final quote I got was just a hair below 50 Grand...

Given the price of solar, it's a lot harder to justify $50k to bring the grid to you.