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New Tariffs in the States

upnorthandpersonal

upnorthandpersonal

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It certainly seems to be the end of Cheap Cells & Tech from China for the US. What & How others will react & the fallout effect we DIY types will likely be unpleasant. The other shoe to drop, is what will China do to counter it... and what will that cost us poor shmucks too ?

When & How bad it will be, will likely be announced soon enough. My thought, is GET WHAT YOU CAN NOW !
 
how soon do people suspect this will effect products which are already in the USA? Or will it only effect products brought into the USA from now on? We are hoping to buy 16 cells plus 2 BMS from the states...
 
wpns said:
Tariffs are paid on entry, so anything sitting in a US warehouse won’t cost any more.
Click to expand...
The INSTANT a tarrif is set, ALL battery/solar will reflect the price change.

If EVERYBODY stopped buying anything after the tarrif takes effect, a message would be sent...
But if government requires solar on new construction, demand will compensate for the increase...
China will likely cease exporting to usa in that case...
Till next election vetos it.
 
Danke said:
Both those articles only mention EVs. Any links to the solar stuff?
Click to expand...

First line in the second article:

"The US government is reportedly set to announce wider tariffs on several categories of Chinese goods, including various green products like solar panels and batteries, medical goods, ..."
 
Another source:

apnews.com

US plans to impose major new tariffs on EVs, other Chinese green energy imports, AP sources say

The Biden administration is planning to announce new tariffs on electric vehicles, semiconductors, solar equipment and medical supplies imported from China.
apnews.com apnews.com

and

fortune.com

Biden administration expected to impose sweeping tariffs on China strategic sectors

Including EVs, batteries and solar cells.
fortune.com fortune.com


The lead-up:

 
Although tariff's are not retrospective companies with stock have to replace that stock when its sold and then pay the tariff. Its up to the supplier but they have to take into account the tariff may end abruptly. So its sensible to increase prices immediately and put the excess into a reserve pot to cover any loss if the tariff disappears and they have stock they paid that tariff on and have to drop the price.
 
I predict prices on Q Cells 475/480/485's will remain pretty stable at $.40 a watt. The market for them was irrational and all over the place, I suspect because small-medium commercial solar farms were gobbling them up at whatever the real going rate was, leaving only scraps to fall on retail. Now when the tariffs hit, the commercial buyers might dry up cause they saw this coming years ago and that's why they loaded up and then maybe containers of them start getting dumped on retail and we find out they were selling to commercial for $.30 so they can still do $.40 to us.

I also predict 400w monos get the price bump instead despite seeming to be the least effected by the changes, just because they're the primary commodity and the actual target that the federal government is trying to onshore the production of.
 
The US already pretty much has the highest solar prices in the world by a considerable margin, all this will do is slow its uptake further (and increase greenhouse gases- not a good thing for the future generations)

All because the US has trained its population over generations that they 'need' an enemy to fight...

Sad...

:cry:
 
The latest information on Credible News Sites is that on May 21, Tuesday, the official details will be released.
YES, Battery Cells, Solar Tech (Panels & related hardware) will all get Massive Duty increases, up to 100% on several items.
This WILL have severe effects on US Companies using Chinese "Components" & Equipment or those having products made i China as well. You know those great new Midnite Solar products in the AIO & DIY Series, well guess what ! THEY aren't the only future victims of it.

Because it is a Duty, it could be implemented on fairly short notice. This could even affect products that are "In process of Shipment" and so some of our Good People may get a call to pay for the duties to have packages released... AND NO - DDP ETC WILL NOT COVER THAT !

Worst part: China will Counter it with something - Of Course, it will NOT be good for the average Joe & Jane Citizen's pocket book.
If they put export duties on all food products for example (a huge amount comes from there - ingredients etc included) or any number of things could be seriously paiful.
 
upnorthandpersonal said:
Seems like there will be new tariffs on solar panels and batteries (and EVs, semiconductors and medical supplies) from China coming to the States.
Click to expand...
Are not the democracts supposed to be in favor of evs, solar and wind, clean energy stuff?
Maybe they need to come up with something to collect another 100 billion to fuel wars...
 
I guess until we know what the impact will be on pricing (and how long it’ll take to spin up domestic production) of the components we typically use it’s all a guessing game. We’ll know more Tuesday.
 
One side effect will be the "components" segment which is chips, processors and such. Products that are "Assembled In *******" use parts from Global Sources including China... Guess what, most electronics have some parts from China within.

Full Details will become available May 21st, then a couple of days for it to be torn apart & fully understood as to what the harm level will be.
I also expect that China WILL react quickly, probably within 1 week of the official declarations. Most people have no real idea of what the world uses that is made/processed in China. Even apples from Washington State are processed into sauce in China because it's been cheaper.... So Much, so many have no idea about.
 
upnorthandpersonal said:
Let's keep politics out of this discussion please - focus on the potential impacts, prices, etc.
Click to expand...
Yeah all the stuff going on makes my blood pressure go up.
Didnt they found a gigantic lithium deposit in California last year?

oilprice.com

World's Largest Lithium Reserve Discovered Beneath California's Salton Sea | OilPrice.com

The U.S. Department of Energy has discovered a massive lithium deposit beneath California's Salton Sea, potentially making the U.S. self-sufficient in this critical battery metal and impacting the global lithium market.
oilprice.com oilprice.com

That could be good news for battery prices in the us if they could set up domestic production.
 
Aridom82 said:
Yeah all the stuff going on makes my blood pressure go up.
Didnt they found a gigantic lithium deposit in California last year?

oilprice.com

World's Largest Lithium Reserve Discovered Beneath California's Salton Sea | OilPrice.com

The U.S. Department of Energy has discovered a massive lithium deposit beneath California's Salton Sea, potentially making the U.S. self-sufficient in this critical battery metal and impacting the global lithium market.
oilprice.com oilprice.com

That could be good news for battery prices in the us if they could set up domestic production.
Click to expand...
That's less than half the size of the deposit being mined in the Northern Territory here, and the NT mine is only one of 9 currently in operation in Australia, with all the rest currently in Western Australia (most of which are bigger than the new NT mine, which has only been in operation a few years)
Although there are known deposits in Qld, SA, NSW and Victoria, as well as more in the NT and WA that aren't being actively mined...
1715425581303.png

Australia currently exports half of the worlds lithium used from its mines (54% of the worlds lithium comes from Australia...)
The existing Pilbarra Minerals refining plant is currently upgrading its capacity (will increase from 680000 tonnes a year to 1000000 tonnes a year by March next year) thats fed from just 3 mines in the Pilbarra region
The new California reserves would be depleted in less than 20 years at that rate...
 
Bop said:
That's less than half the size of the deposit being mined in the Northern Territory here, and the NT mine is only one of 9 currently in operation in Australia, with all the rest currently in Western Australia (most of which are bigger than the new NT mine, which has only been in operation a few years)
Click to expand...
I didnt knew this. How does this affect the prices of batteries in your country? Do you still have to import cells from China for you diy project?
It seems that with all that Lithium abundance you could have very cheap Australian produced batteries and not care about tariffs for the cells, same situation that the US could have. Australia is a very sunny country. Looks like all the ingredients are there for solar utopia.
 
Aridom82 said:
I didnt knew this. How does this affect the prices of batteries in your country? Do you still have to import cells from China for you diy project?
It seems that with all that Lithium abundance you could have very cheap Australian produced batteries and not care about tariffs for the cells, same situation that the US could have. Australia is a very sunny country. Looks like all the ingredients are there for solar utopia.
Click to expand...
No more domestic auto production in Aus so seems unlikely they would set up LFP cell production lines.

I ve seen a few articles where an inventer in Aus has a great product/idea, but ends up having to build it in China or other overseas country because the domestic demand can't justify building it on shore with high wages and difficulty hiring workers etc keeping prices for a domestic solution too high for general adoption.

But apparently you can get a grid tied system installed for less than a $1 per watt there so there's definitely some cheaper equipment overall versus US.
 
Brucey said:
No more domestic auto production in Aus so seems unlikely they would set up LFP cell production lines.

I ve seen a few articles where an inventer in Aus has a great product/idea, but ends up having to build it in China or other overseas country because the domestic demand can't justify building it on shore with high wages and difficulty hiring workers etc keeping prices for a domestic solution too high for general adoption.

But apparently you can get a grid tied system installed for less than a $1 per watt there so there's definitely some cheaper equipment overall versus US.
Click to expand...
There is a small LFP production line being touted, but it would be a flea in comparison to the big existing manufacturers...
Sadly, Australia's governments have since the 1970's, run Australian manufacturing into the ground, and at this point little to none is being 'made in Australia' anymore....
(At one point we had a thriving electronics industry and car manufacturers here... all gone...)

We exported cars around the world from the 1960's onwards (the first Aussie LHD imports into the US were in 1960 into Hawaii!!!)- if you owned a late model Chevrolet SS or got a ride in the back of a Caprice PPV (police car) made before 2017 (bad boys, bad boys, what ya gunna do...) or owned a Pontiac G7- thats an Aussie built car... all made in Melbourne...

The last Chevrolet SS ever made in Australia...
1715429513221.png
The Caprice PPV (better known in Australia as the Holden Statesman in RHD form) also made in Australia...
1715429723016.png
All gone...

The chances of a successful LFP battery being developed and manufactured in Australia these days- buckleys...
😭
 
As for Aussie solar prices- well a 6.6kw gridtie is just over $2000 US..
Thats from picking up the phone or dropping an email, to sitting back and watching it power your house... (and that is literally the only thing you have to do- no 'permits' or negotiating with electric companies trying to get approvals...)
1715430697106.png
1715430853310.png1715430871935.png

A 6.6kw near zeros many houses electricity bills (makes about 40kWh a day, while the 13.2kW system would take a massive house here in Australia to not handle its electric bills... it makes about 80kWh a day)

I see people quoting $20k US, $30k US, or even more for their entire system (one recently was $60k US for the entire system up and running... 🤯 and I'm thinking- what the hell are these systems- gold frames and diamond glass????)
 
... and the Utility companies lobby for this aggressively. CEO bonuses are at stake here folks! Have some mercy.
 
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