Switch to lithium battery now or wait ?

[mz350]

Hi

I am very interested in a lithium battery but prices seem stratospherical! everything being relative of course ;-)
I could buy now like with a 10 years warranty but what if prices are divided by 10 in 2 years or even 1 year from now ... maybe go lead acid now and wait for a good opportunity ... On the other hand prices could also go up given the current lithium metal situation so buy now is best ...
What do you think ?

Best regards

 

[BentleyJ]

Your question is almost getting into the territory of "financial advice". So this is just an opinion. LiFePO4 battery prices have already come down significantly in the past 2-3 years and seem to have leveled off. I was checking Alibaba for EVE LF280K cells just yesterday, $105 each for a set of 4. They claimed Grade A, matched cells but there is no way to verify without opening a discussion. Shipping is now VERY slow and expensive.

If you don't want to go DIY for the battery, Then EG4, SOK, Big Battery ETC prices have leveled off although price per kWh is still higher than DIY. As more competition comes into the market they will most likely be forced to lower prices a bit more BUT inflation is not going away and supply shortages are probably not going to get much better in the next 2-3 years. (My go to source for this type of information is Martin Armstrong and his Economic Confidence Model)

If your time frame is only 1-2 years it doesn't make any sense to go with lead acid now then go through the whole battery replacement thing again in such a short period of time. Its a really big gamble (more like just a wish) that Li prices would drop that much, they most likely will not. In fact, if deflation hits so hard that prices are divided by 10, its going be a "Mad Max" world of total chaos. Not the best time to be sourcing materials and supplies.

 

[Ampster]

i agree with what @BentleyJ said.
In addition the EV manufacturers are trying to get pack prices below $100 per kWh but their cost engineering is mostly on saving money on pack assembly and the economies of scale apply to that part not the commodity price of the chemicals that go into a battery. I find it amazing that I was able to buy 42 kWh of LFPs for less than $125 per kWh two years ago. I bought Winstons ten years ago for an EV conversion at close to $300 per kWh.

 

[time2roll]

Hi

I am very interested in a lithium battery but prices seem stratospherical! everything being relative of course ;-)
I could buy now like with a 10 years warranty but what if prices are divided by 10 in 2 years or even 1 year from now ... maybe go lead acid now and wait for a good opportunity ... On the other hand prices could also go up given the current lithium metal situation so buy now is best ...
What do you think ?

Best regards

Get them now. Life is better with lithium. Price is more likely to go up than down in two years. Certainly will not be 10 cents on the dollar.

 

[mz350]

OK thanks.
I'll probably go now for 1 or 2 EG4 4.8 KWh 12 or 48 volts version, 12 because unfortunately my inverter is 12 volts. 48 would require a new one.

Best regards

 

[Danke]

My supplier has already raised his prices, I don’t see them doing down anytime soon, especially with high inflation coming (here?).

 

[BradCagle]

OK thanks.
I'll probably go now for 1 or 2 EG4 4.8 KWh 12 or 48 volts version, 12 because unfortunately my inverter is 12 volts. 48 would require a new one.

Best regards

You might want to think very carefully about the 12v vs 48v

12v requires BIG cabling, and massive charge controllers, that cost adds up quick.

 

[chrisski]

You'll always be waiting for something. Go for it. Enjoy life.

 

[mz350]

You might want to think very carefully about the 12v vs 48v

12v requires BIG cabling, and massive charge controllers, that cost adds up quick.

You are right and I can not pull full power from the charge controler at 60 A.

 

[mz350]

You'll always be waiting for something. Go for it. Enjoy life.

;-)

 

[OzSolar]

No insider knowledge but my gut tells me that the price drop curve is pretty flat now.

Keep in mind that the per unit cost of usable energy over the life time is already lower than lead acid so my two cents is that unless you're looking for a very short term solution then lithium is the most cost effective solution for most applications. Just got to get over the initial price tag which is easier said than done.

edit to fix a typo

 

[Don B. Cilly]

 

[Shimmy]

Best case scenario should be LFP dropping ~20% in 2 years. Worst case scenario is beyond my imagination at this point with inflation and everything else. Lead acid (AGM/Gel) has a 3-year life, so you would need to stick with it for at least that long to maybe have it make sense.

 

[mz350]

Ok thanks for all the advices, LifePo4 definitely ;-) EG4 I think or Jakiper.

Best regards