Has anyone else realized how far we are away from running civilization fully on wind and solar?

[labeeman]

We could just build small nuclear plants with the new technologies and we could have abundant, cheap and relatively “clean” energy.

Those can be the absolute dirtiest energy producers in the world and this has happened several times already Think three mile island. NO THANK YOU TO NUCLEAR.

 

[Risky Rob]

We will get there. But the government is forcing it too fast. Shutting down fossil fuel production, before alternative sources are in place. This is why many regions have been seeing widespread outages.

In California, they have kept fossil fuel power plants in reserve, ready to quickly generate power if needed. We may not have "rolling blackouts" any more.

 

[labeeman]

In California, they have kept fossil fuel power plants in reserve, ready to quickly generate power if needed. We may not have "rolling blackouts" any more.

I worked at a fossil fuel power plant for several years and Know how long it takes to get a plant online you are dreaming.

 

[Ampster]

I worked at a fossil fuel power plant for several years and Know how long it takes to get a plant online you are dreaming

My understanding is combined cycle plants can ramp quicker but still not as fast as peakers.

 

[Paul_R]

I worked at a fossil fuel power plant for several years and Know how long it takes to get a plant online you are dreaming.

I had a career in California utility power production. A 50 mw gas turbine unit can be online and at full power in around 5 minutes. The problem is California makes the emissions rules impossible to meet or even get a permit to build. The technology is there, the problem is the lawmakers and their environmental utopia fantasies. The other problem is the grid can't handle the demand. You can build all the power plants you want but they're useless if the grid can't deliver the power.

 

[fromport]

My understanding is combined cycle plants can ramp quicker but still not as fast as peakers.

142 Tesla Megapacks power on to create giant new battery, replacing gas peaker plant in California

A new 142-Tesla Megapack project has been turned on in California’s Ventura County to create a giant new battery that...

electrek.co

 

[Mattb4]

I had a career in California utility power production. A 50 mw gas turbine unit can be online and at full power in around 5 minutes. The problem is California makes the emissions rules impossible to meet or even get a permit to build. The technology is there, the problem is the lawmakers and their environmental utopia fantasies. The other problem is the grid can't handle the demand. You can build all the power plants you want but they're useless if the grid can't deliver the power.

Grid being built to handle demands is something average people do put any thought into. That is unless their power stops flowing and then anger is the first response.

 

[labeeman]

I had a career in California utility power production. A 50 mw gas turbine unit can be online and at full power in around 5 minutes. The problem is California makes the emissions rules impossible to meet or even get a permit to build. The technology is there, the problem is the lawmakers and their environmental utopia fantasies. The other problem is the grid can't handle the demand. You can build all the power plants you want but they're useless if the grid can't deliver the power.

Yep, most rolling blackouts are because the Grid cannot handle the load.

 

[Ampster]

The other problem is the grid can't handle the demand

I presume you mean peak demand. I occasionally look at the CAISO numbers and off peak there seems to be plenty of generating capacity so I assume the grid is only at capacity during peak times

 

[labeeman]

I think the code for building a new house should be that they can only use the grid for 20% of there power the rest from solar or wind. Then we will see a lot more power-efficient appliances for sale and not have to pay a premium for them.

 

[labeeman]

I presume you mean peak demand. I occasionally look at the CAISO numbers and off peak there seems to be plenty of generating capacity so I assume the grid is only at capacity during peak times

Yep peak is the problem you do not want melted wires on the ground or blown up transformers in the substation they take a while to replace. They blew up a 200 MVA transformer where I worked and took several months to repair.

 

[Ampster]

. A 50 mw gas turbine unit can be online and at full power in around 5 minutes.

My understanding is gas peakers can not compete with battery storage on price. Also storage can be permitted and built faster. For air quality I would much rather have battery storage than more peakers. I grew up in LA in the fifties so I am thankful for how the air quality has improved.

 

[Paul_R]

I presume you mean peak demand. I occasionally look at the CAISO numbers and off peak there seems to be plenty of generating capacity so I assume the grid is only at capacity during peak times

Peak demand and unplanned outages. Power plants tripping offline, transmission line/equipment failures, ect.

 

[OzSolar]

Problem is a lot of scientists are paid by politicians too, so.... Can't automatically trust them either.

Of course most scientists are not on the take. Unfortunately the ones that are also have Hollywood scale production teams behind them. The film "Wag the Dog" comes to mind.

 

[labeeman]

We may not be as far away as you think as I see a population decrease due to covid and that will lessen our demand for power. There has already observed a birthrate decrease in the world and I think it is due to covid and the vaccines.

 

[Paul_R]

Yep peak is the problem you do not want melted wires on the ground or blown up transformers in the substation they take a while to replace. They blew up a 200 MVA transformer where I worked and took several months to repair.

That's something almost nobody outside the industry understands. There are no off the shelf spares and replacements for major transmission equipment like transformers. They have to be built to your exact specifications and then shipped. They cost millions of dollars and weigh up to 400 tons. It's like shipping a building.

 

[Hedges]

Yep peak is the problem you do not want melted wires on the ground or blown up transformers in the substation they take a while to replace. They blew up a 200 MVA transformer where I worked and took several months to repair.

Simplest solution to peak is the humble pager. Put a pager on the thermostat wire of A/C, similarly control other loads.
When generation or transmission capacity is strained, broadcast a page to knock consumption offline.
A couple numbers for percentage and duration could be used by a uP in the pager to roll the dice, so some percentage of them drops off line and remain off for some variable length of time.

Shave the peaks, fill the valleys, get lower cost per kWh and better efficiency from the power generation and distribution system.

My understanding is gas peakers can not compete with battery storage on price. Also storage can be permitted and built faster. For air quality I would much rather have battery storage than more peakers. I grew up in LA in the fifties so I am thankful for how the air quality has improved.

Any problem with air quality from natural gas peaker plants?

 

[Ampster]

There are no off the shelf spares and replacements for major transmission equipment like transformers.

There are processes used by many organizations to plan maintenance and replacement. How effective those processes are it the operative question.

 

[Ampster]

Any problem with air quality from natural gas peaker plants?

My understand is that there are air quality issues and that is one reason permitting and siting takes a long time. I also think they are inefficient and today cannot compete with battery backup. Over to past ten years I saw two ocean cooled steam plants converted to combined cycle plants that are more efficient, cleaner and can ramp reasonabley fast for partial capacity. To me that is the best interim strategy until the demand can be shifted.

 

[Risky Rob]

I worked at a fossil fuel power plant for several years and Know how long it takes to get a plant online you are dreaming.

Do some research, I didn't make this up. They have plants kept in a state of readiness.