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New Tariffs in the States

The Chinese panels are already shipped thru/via other south east Asian countries and then onwards to the US to get around existing tariffs. I don't think anyone is doing the same for LFP cells so they may go up, but keep in mind cell prices continue to drop.
In the news this morning from Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/markets/com...manufacturers-chinese-competition-2024-05-16/

The White House said it would soon remove a two-year-old trade exemption that has allowed imports of so-called bifacial panels to avoid duties. Those panels were a small part of the market at the time of the exemption but are now the main technology used in utility-scale solar projects.
Reuters first reported the administration's plans to do so last month.
Biden will also end a waiver on tariffs imposed on solar panels made by Chinese companies in Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam. He imposed the temporary waiver two years ago at the request of U.S. project developers who rely on cheap imports to make their facilities cost-competitive.
 
I asked Gobel directly about how they handle any tariff. They said....

"Our forwarder including all costs including the tariff for DDP shipping, they cover the tariff by containers not per order, we don't have problem on the customs."
 
DDP takes care of everything, including tariffs. That said, some sellers might not want to go with DDP in times of uncertainty if they (or their forwarders) are not sure about upcoming regulations and the impact on price yet.
 
It certainly seems to be the end of Cheap Cells & Tech from China for the US. What & How others will react & the fallout effect we DIY types will likely be unpleasant. The other shoe to drop, is what will China do to counter it... and what will that cost us poor shmucks too ?

When & How bad it will be, will likely be announced soon enough. My thought, is GET WHAT YOU CAN NOW !
This is an interesting topic. There so much stuff that depends on the Tech and even the big names have a lot of no-name tech baked in that I think this will have interesting consequences. It will undoubtedly lift the inflation (we have had about 25% of that in the last 4-5 years). Inflation always hits poor and middle class the worst.
 
Tariffs are popular with people because they think, "We're fighting back against [insert name of country]!" The reality is that it's the consumer, not the target country, that pays those tariffs.

Users of this forum will simply be forced to pay more, for exactly the same products. Will those dollars go toward enabling a stronger solar industry for our country? Of course not! They just go right into the giant vacuum that already sucks up far too much of our hard-earned money, and redirects it to anything that will get the masses to vote for the people imposing the tariffs. If the additional money being collected went directly into, say, renewable research and building a better industrial base, I might not feel so bad about paying it. But as I see it, this is just a tax on people trying to move away from dependence on utilities and fossil fuels. Not happy about that.
 
It is supposedly supposed to make the costs for the cheap imports higher to prevent undercutting domestic production. Country A has solid labor conditions, Country B has slave labor and sells to Country A super cheap, drives out production in Country A, which long term has negative economic impact to Country A. That's the basic idea anyway.

....except we don't really have domestic production of this stuff yet.
And there are all kinds of other holes that can be poked in it too.

The good answer to it is not really simple.

Global trade has its pros and cons for sure.
 
China remains a command economy with capitalistic characteristics...
That's my turn of phrase on a popular saying

A long time ago the CPC recognized they needed to build the capacity to have supply chains of their own and dominate markets at home and by default compete over seas..
Long term plans and state money went into building a system that has dominated the solar battery and now EV markets.
But when the state plans and picks winners and losers often there are a lot of losers and the public pays the cost of that.
That's part of the reason a Chinese worker still has little brass in pocket in spite of decades of massive economic growth

In Canada we take a different approach.
We sell out, then export raw materials.
We avoid capital investments and putting money in R&D, training or education.

SO we make nothing and own nothing.

A tariff will not solve this.
We need actual gov intervention in the economy.
Not to the Chinese level of doing things but I think it would be safe to say the very visible hand of government should pulling anywhere up to 20% of the economic leavers actively owning stakes and and steering development in the growth sides of technology.
That sounds like communism... Colour me red and Black list me....
The free market doesn't plan very far ahead in a word that needs real planning if we are to have a sustainable affordable future.

My two cents....

And I would like to add.
People forget the post WW2 growth was not because of the superiority of on regulated capitalism.
It was because our enemies were defeated and bombed into poverty we had not competition and they need us.
Massive investments in science technology and military spending created the economic miracles of the 1950s and 1960s.
It was the deregulation of the 1980s that set us down a path of "do-nothingism", the out source all the dirty jobs we did not want to put the money and resources into making here.
 
They just go right into the giant vacuum that already sucks up far too much of our hard-earned money, and redirects it to anything that will get the masses to vote for the people imposing the tariffs.
Most people don't readily realize that all the free-bees are inefficiently distributed back after a substantial portion of that is sucked out of collections to run the machine to collect, account, enforce, and then distribute!!! And, we thank other to give us the free bee that are funded either out of our money or the debt taken in the name of next generation (our children).
 
People forget the post WW2 growth was not because of the superiority of on regulated capitalism.
It was because our enemies were defeated and bombed into poverty we had not competition and they need us.
Massive investments in science technology and military spending created the economic miracles of the 1950s and 1960s.
There is huge amount of economic truth to this.
 
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Our housing market AAA low risk mortgages really impacted a lot of countries. We have let unfair trade practices go on for years. Now we finely do something and they are setting up BRICS on a gold standard. Hard to beat a gold standard. One thing for sure is times are changing and we aren't the driving force anymore.

BRICS To Replace US Dollar With Cryptocurrency for Trade

China Dumps The Largest US Treasuries in History
 
Our housing market AAA low risk mortgages really impacted a lot of countries. We have let unfair trade practices go on for years. Now we finely do something and they are setting up BRICS on a gold standard. Hard to beat a gold standard. One thing for sure is times are changing and we aren't the driving force anymore.

BRICS To Replace US Dollar With Cryptocurrency for Trade

China Dumps The Largest US Treasuries in History
Bob: I would consider watcher.guru a lot speculative but some of this is true. Rightly or wrongly, when we deny access to money that belongs to other country, many countries (including non-enemy) would like their emergency reserve (used to always be USD and to some extent still is) insulated from such denials. Emergency reserve is always during emergency and that can not await a ruling from international courts!!
 
The tariff rate on solar cells (whether or not assembled into modules) will increase from 25% to 50% in 2024. The tariff increase will protect against China's policy-driven overcapacity that depresses prices and inhibits the development of solar capacity outside of China.


China has signalled it will retaliate against trade barriers introduced by the US and the EU as it launched an anti-dumping probe into chemical imports.

The Ministry of Commerce announced on Sunday that it is probing imports of polyoxymethylene copolymer, a thermoplastic widely used in the consumer electronics and automotive industries, from the EU, the US, Japan and Taiwan.
 
Our housing market AAA low risk mortgages really impacted a lot of countries. We have let unfair trade practices go on for years. Now we finely do something and they are setting up BRICS on a gold standard. Hard to beat a gold standard. One thing for sure is times are changing and we aren't the driving force anymore.

BRICS To Replace US Dollar With Cryptocurrency for Trade

China Dumps The Largest US Treasuries in History

The USA has the US dollar.
Oil is sold in Dollars, most international trade involves a Dollar...
This is because of the post war way things went and the US dollar was seen as honest.
And its was an economic and political sledge hammer used to steer the world PAX Americana

To this day I think there is more US money in other countries than there is IN the USA.
Because even if you are in an unfriendly country to the USA or you have an axe to grind with the USA a dollar is still fair and it still the currencey to use for trade.
( backed by guns and oil, so who needs gold? )
That's unlikely to change very soon if ever

BRICS.

Brazil is the country of tomorow.
They keep saying that but as long as they keep running the country that way it always will be the future they are waiting for .

Russia.
YA Russia, give me a bowel of beet soup and promises.... and as long as you pretend to pay me I will pretend to work

India
The worlds most populis basket case...

China
The worlds sweat shops.

South Africa
Thank God they don't have the Bomb...
At least Bota had the good sense to burn the plans...

I'm going to add The pound sterling was king until the British empire went broke fighting wars.
I live in a world defined by that.

Things Change but they don;t change as fast as Russia and China might like without good reason to change.

Since day one of the Russian invasion of Ukraine I have said we should be dumping the best weapons and as much support as we can into their country.
They are fighting for the values and traditions we share.
Take a hard look at the BRICs.
Do they look like places you want to live in as a working class man with car and a house as your dream?
Stripped of cheap labour or buckets of resources are these governments trying to create modern liberal democracies or are they trying to create some sort of Oligarchical collectivist fiefdoms...


And I am not an American and blind to history
Someday they might, and should, build a monument to the victims of capitalism ( right next door to the smaller victims of communism memorial )
Enjoy your fruit...
it was bought and paid for in blood and US dollars.
 
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Imagine how this will change the market overnight to favor the new tesla powerwall 3. Tesla is the only company who is doing large scale manufacturing of lifepo4 cells here in the USA...

There is a couple other domestic lifepo4 manufacturers, but you can't even consider them because their volume is so low. This would make tesla dominate the market overnight. And tesla is still expanding their lfp cell production.
 
Imagine how this will change the market overnight to favor the new tesla powerwall 3. Tesla is the only company who is doing large scale manufacturing of lifepo4 cells here in the USA...

There is a couple other domestic lifepo4 manufacturers, but you can't even consider them because their volume is so low. This would make tesla dominate the market overnight. And tesla is still expanding their lfp cell production.
Lets catch that knife on TSLA stock. :ROFLMAO:
 
I know quite a few of the other companies personally, and I don't see how anyone could compete. Their current stationary storage installation rate is nearly parabolic right now...
 
Lets catch that knife on TSLA stock. :ROFLMAO:
Combination of the tariffs increasing the price of components going up and the new rules that are trying to defeat large residential storage. They're pushing for microgrid commercial installations.

Need to find all the players and invest in their stocks. Like it or not change is happening.


Schneider Electric adds BESS to EcoStruxure Microgrid Flex system
 
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Imagine how this will change the market overnight to favor the new tesla powerwall 3. Tesla is the only company who is doing large scale manufacturing of lifepo4 cells here in the USA...

There is a couple other domestic lifepo4 manufacturers, but you can't even consider them because their volume is so low. This would make tesla dominate the market overnight. And tesla is still expanding their lfp cell production.
Are they cost competitive enough now for this to be a reality?
 
Are they cost competitive enough now for this to be a reality?
That's $9300+installation.

Apparently there will be additional pw3 units that don't have the inverter brains just additional DC battery capacity, for a $1000 less. so still big premium for capacity expansion.

Screenshot_20240520_191016_Chrome.jpg
 
Omg. That is so expensive.
A diy lifepo4 pack with 16kwh goes for 1600 - 1800 right now.
Tesla's is at least 6 times the price!
With the new tarrifs, it won't be that cheap any longer. And the Powerwall will have inverter, mppt etc. Need to add the cost of a 18Kpv or equivalent inverter. Or a sol ark. Now you're looking at $7000 minimum
 

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