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diy solar

A different way to think about climate change

John Frum

Tell me your problems
Joined
Nov 30, 2019
Messages
15,233
"it" = climate change

Two primary inter-related questions.
q: Can we do anything about it?​
If we can't do anything about it we should probably not try do anything about it.​
q: Should we do anything about it?​
If we can't do anything about it we should probably not try do anything about it.​
Trying to fix the problem and making things worse seems like a real concern to me.​
q: How serious is it?​
If human civilization is on the line and we can actually do something about it then we should get on with it.​
If its a non-issue then no action is required.​
q: Is this the most urgent and important issue that we face?​
A world war would almost certainly take priority.​

q: What is not a primary question in this regard?
a: Arguing whether or not it is "man made" is only interesting if the discussion advances our understanding in terms of the primary questions.

And now I shall walk away from the smelly punch bowl.
 
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I spend a lot of time in the physics community, mostly astronomy and astrophysics. I talk to professional astronomers, amateurs, physicists, etc.. Some really smart people.

There's an idea in astronomy in the hunt for signs of alien life.. its referred to as "The Great Filter"

From Drake's equation to the Fermi paradox, the people who study this stuff are beginning to think they might have an idea of what's going on.

For those who aren't familiar, in simple terms, the Drake equation attempts to ascertain the likelihood of aliens based on a range of variables like the number of stars, chances of a habitable planet, etc. The numbers that the Drake equation returns are astounding.. so much so, Fermi looked at the results and asked "If there are so many aliens out there, where the hell is everyone?"

Enter "The Great Filter".. A concept that an evolving intelligent species will run up against an obstacle which is likely to prevent their survival or further evolution.

Current thinking is that it is global warming that does it.

By the time a species recognizes the danger, its too late to change their society to fix it.
 
q: Can we do anything about it?
Yes we can resolve global warming. If it turns out I'm wrong, I'd rather we died as a species trying to fix it than with our heads stuck in the sand.

Studies (and history) show reducing GHGs (greenhouse gases) resolves the issue with grace and is technically safe.
thoughts-from-the-peanut-gallery.jpg

Studies also show there is time to fix it with minimal problems, although it's a big effort at this point. It's interesting to note that both of the main U.S. political parties have adopted climate change, the only separation between them now is how much $ to pour into how fast so as to not bankrupt the country while saving it. A number of their constituents are still stuck in previous thinking (this is similar to how politicians of both parties are generally fully vaccinated despite legal actions to reduce mandating vaccinations).

Replacing fossil fuels with renewables and ESS's also sets us up for cheaper goods & power in the future, that is it makes economic sense to do anyway. Solar & Wind are already both dramatically cheaper than any fuel source, the hold-up from a normal capitalism take-over by them is ESSs are required for stable supply and they have been too expensive unless you lived in an area with special geological features (e.g., hydro, compressed air are both cheap). Fortunately, ESSes are falling drastically in price, and mass producing them will cause prices to fall to where stable renewables are cheaper than fuel-driven (doesn't solve the methane (see also #247) or N2O issues) though.

Even without reducing GHGs, we are technologically advanced to create a "nuclear winter" with thermonuclear devices that will immediately start reducing the temperature. It doesn't fix the problem, just buys time. Good for windmills, bad for solar, does nothing about ocean acidification. But, inbetween those two solutions are a lot of other ones somewhat less drastic. My guess is we won't get as serious as we need to now, and it'll cost more to fix in the end because of it. We'll probably also see a whole variety of solutions deployed.

Trying to fix the problem and making things worse seems like a real concern to me.
Doing nothing is bad too. Even if you don't others will and force you to action (e.g., drafted into the military).

q: How serious is it?​
If human civilization is on the line and we can actually do something about it then we should get on with it.​
If its a non-issue then no action is required.​
Humans might endure. As coastal cities are abandoned and farmlands can't produce war/famine/disease will rage across the world. This will reduce the population to where it would eventually be small enough or technologically incapable enough. I suspect survival depends on if we can avoid all-out nuclear war during the era.

But, if we just take action now for net-zero now, then it's not something to be overly worried about.

q: Is this most urgent and important issue that we face?​
Let me reverse that, what issue is more important?

A world war would almost certainly take priority.
Some would say that climate change is already a world-wide war being waged. It seems obvious to me that climate change would destabilize countries making an escalating world war a certainty. But currently, no country is abandoning its military during the GHG reductions they've planned.
 
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"it" = climate change

Two primary inter-related questions.
q: Can we do anything about it?​
If we can't do anything about it we should probably not try do anything about it.​

I might be misunderstanding. Are you saying if the edge of your house catches on fire, and you currently do not have the ability to put it out, that you should instead grab some gasoline and pour it over the rest of the house?

If instead, you are asking the simple question "Is it possible to reduce carbon emissions", then I don't understand why you are asking such a simple question.

If someone has a crystal ball and can tell me how our efforts go at advancing carbon sequestration technology, and it says never, then it means we need to even more aggressively reduce carbon emissions.
 
I might be misunderstanding. Are you saying if the edge of your house catches on fire, and you currently do not have the ability to put it out, that you should instead grab some gasoline and pour it over the rest of the house?
I'm not saying that.
If instead, you are asking the simple question "Is it possible to reduce carbon emissions", then I don't understand why you are asking such a simple question.
Not saying that either.
 
Re: doing something is better than nothing.

Its hardly that simple when those who advocate doing something are driven by a confused ideology.
This is evident in UN IPCC literature mentioning "carbon equity" and "climate justice".
Ideologues who insist we need to reduce carbon emissions but support solutions which only restrict industrialized nations, and give much less attention to third world countries because while their emissions are higher as a whole per capita they are lower.
Their agenda is actually not to mitigate climate change but to advance global socialism.
Now witness the results of the Kyoto Protocol, which was not only an increase in GGE, but an increase in the rate of its increase.
When this is pointed out, so called "alarmists" are unconcerned, and say thats okay that billions more people are being industrialized with UN programs bringing electricity and running water and hospitals to their villages. Carbon equity, climate justice.

Mitigating a problem caused by human industrialization, with programs that industrialize more humans.

Amazingly, when confronted with this they will inevitably trivialize the matter, saying it wont matter that hundreds of millions of Africans, Asians, latin Americans, etc getting electricity they didnt have before, because they will do it with alternative or green sources.

Which is just disingenuous, these people live in primitive villages, dont own land, are routinely robbed by warlords or their own govts.

The majority of Americans cannot power their lives with solar arrays, how are people in Somalia or Ethiopia doing it?

Your intent may be to save the planet, your ideology results in policies that will make it worse.

But then levelling the playing field was really what it was all about
 
Re: doing something is better than nothing.

Its hardly that simple when those who advocate doing something are driven by a confused ideology.
This is evident in UN IPCC literature mentioning "carbon equity" and "climate justice".
Ideologues who insist we need to reduce carbon emissions but support solutions which only restrict industrialized nations, and give much less attention to third world countries because while their emissions are higher as a whole per capita they are lower.
Their agenda is actually not to mitigate climate change but to advance global socialism.
Church on Sundays?

Now witness the results of the Kyoto Protocol, which was not only an increase in GGE, but an increase in the rate of its increase.
Oh, I call Bull$hit on that. How about a link to prove your claim?
I can smell the religion from here...


When this is pointed out, so called "alarmists" are unconcerned, and say thats okay that billions more people are being industrialized with UN programs bringing electricity and running water and hospitals to their villages. Carbon equity, climate justice.

Mitigating a problem caused by human industrialization, with programs that industrialize more humans.

Amazingly, when confronted with this they will inevitably trivialize the matter, saying it wont matter that hundreds of millions of Africans, Asians, latin Americans, etc getting electricity they didnt have before, because they will do it with alternative or green sources.

Which is just disingenuous, these people live in primitive villages, dont own land, are routinely robbed by warlords or their own govts.

The majority of Americans cannot power their lives with solar arrays, how are people in Somalia or Ethiopia doing it?

Your intent may be to save the planet, your ideology results in policies that will make it worse.

But then levelling the playing field was really what it was all about
And your solution is?
 
Re: doing something is better than nothing.

Its hardly that simple when those who advocate doing something are driven by a confused ideology.
This is evident in UN IPCC literature mentioning "carbon equity" and "climate justice".
Ideologues who insist we need to reduce carbon emissions but support solutions which only restrict industrialized nations, and give much less attention to third world countries because while their emissions are higher as a whole per capita they are lower.
Their agenda is actually not to mitigate climate change but to advance global socialism.
Now witness the results of the Kyoto Protocol, which was not only an increase in GGE, but an increase in the rate of its increase.
When this is pointed out, so called "alarmists" are unconcerned, and say thats okay that billions more people are being industrialized with UN programs bringing electricity and running water and hospitals to their villages. Carbon equity, climate justice.

Mitigating a problem caused by human industrialization, with programs that industrialize more humans.

Amazingly, when confronted with this they will inevitably trivialize the matter, saying it wont matter that hundreds of millions of Africans, Asians, latin Americans, etc getting electricity they didnt have before, because they will do it with alternative or green sources.

Which is just disingenuous, these people live in primitive villages, dont own land, are routinely robbed by warlords or their own govts.

The majority of Americans cannot power their lives with solar arrays, how are people in Somalia or Ethiopia doing it?

Your intent may be to save the planet, your ideology results in policies that will make it worse.

But then levelling the playing field was really what it was all about
It is truly refreshing to see that others see what is really going on in the world. It amazes me that the ones that "preach" conspiracies seem to be so blind to the much bigger issues that this world is facing. Left against right. Science against religion. black against white. And in the meantime bigger issues are going on.
 
Church on Sundays?


Oh, I call Bull$hit on that. How about a link to prove your claim?
I can smell the religion from here...



And your solution is?
1. Im an agnostic antitheist, but nice try with the ad hominem.
2. Youre asking me to prove what every alarmist has been claiming?."its much worse than we thought, and its happening faster!"
3. I dont have the solution, but YOU CANT MITIGATE A PROBLEM CAUSED BY HUMAN INDUSTRIALIZATION WITH PROGRAMS THAT INDUSTRIALIZE MORE HUMANS.
I did say that.
Thats what is the intent behind most of these programs. It isnt lowering overall GGE, but penalizing industrialized nations while giving emerging nations a free pass, and improving their standards of living.

"Oh but thats the right thing to do isnt it?"

Stop right there. Is stopping climate change the goal or is it global socialism?

This is the dilemma. Most ideologues who support strong climate change policy, a.k.a. leftists, also support global socialism.
They dont see the two goals are mutually exclusive.
 
A problem is that people are pushing policies based upon emotions not logic and arent thinking about the long term effects of these policies.
The current administration has decided that the market wasnt moving fast enough and created legislation intended to get most of us out of our ICE cars and into electrics in just 15 years.
They completely ignore that the charging infrastructure simply doesnt exist and creating it will take so much additional carbon emissions it boggles the mind. Most residential areas do not have the service capacity and will have to have their streets and sidewalks torn up for new cable burial. The cable will have to be manufactured, heavy equipment used, concrete and asphalt poured.
Power grids will have to be upgraded, more construction, huge projects. The politicians pushing this stuff love it because they can get rich skimming the till on the contracts.
We will stop climate change or accelerate it trying.
Meanwhile their war on fossil fuels launched the worst inflation weve seen in half a century. They must have thought freighters and semi trucks were electric.
 
Meanwhile their war on fossil fuels launched the worst inflation weve seen in half a century. They must have thought freighters and semi trucks were electric.
LOL...You are giving the current administration a lot of credit in setting WORLD WIDE oil prices. Oil prices are a world wide issue. As is the electrification of vehicles. In fact, the US is behind the rest of the world's manufacturers in switching to electric vehicles.
 
LOL...You are giving the current administration a lot of credit in setting WORLD WIDE oil prices. Oil prices are a world wide issue. As is the electrification of vehicles. In fact, the US is behind the rest of the world's manufacturers in switching to electric vehicles.
You are correct. It takes "many" world leaders to convince-coherce-fearmonger the population and shut down world trade that in turn causes supply problems. But on the bright side the current administration is doing a bang up job of destabilizing the economy and the huge push for electric cars play a roll in this.
 
LOL...You are giving the current administration a lot of credit in setting WORLD WIDE oil prices. Oil prices are a world wide issue. As is the electrification of vehicles. In fact, the US is behind the rest of the world's manufacturers in switching to electric vehicles.
The first week in office Brandon took a number of executive actions to curtail domestic petroleum production, and shut down the Canadian pipeline. Under the previous administration the US had achieved energy independence for the first time in 50 years. These are well documented facts. OPEC took the opportunity to jack up prices when our demand increased.
If you dont think the US can directly influence world economic factors with our policies youre in denial.
 
LOL...You are giving the current administration a lot of credit in setting WORLD WIDE oil prices. Oil prices are a world wide issue. As is the electrification of vehicles. In fact, the US is behind the rest of the world's manufacturers in switching to electric vehicles.
It looks like the whole world is behind in switching to electric vehicles.
Please read this:



"Why did it take 9 hours to go 130 miles in our new electric Porsche".

Whats the damage done to the planet in replacing all the gas stations with charging stations?

"Linda Barnes and her husband had to visit six charging stations as one after another they were either out of order, already had a queue or were the slow, older versions that would never be able to provide a fast enough charge in the time."

Think of all the extra energy they expended driving around trying to find a charge. Thatll help the planet.
 
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The first week in office Brandon took a number of executive actions to curtail domestic petroleum production, and shut down the Canadian pipeline. Under the previous administration the US had achieved energy independence for the first time in 50 years. These are well documented facts. OPEC took the opportunity to jack up prices when our demand increased.
If you dont think the US can directly influence world economic factors with our policies youre in denial.
LOL...oil consumption was down because nobody was driving! At one point there was no place to put the oil so prices went negative. Nice short memory you have there.

BTW, OPEC doesn't set the prices, the market sets the price. I take it you don't invest in the stock market or commodities?
 
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You are correct. It takes "many" world leaders to convince-coherce-fearmonger the population and shut down world trade that in turn causes supply problems. But on the bright side the current administration is doing a bang up job of destabilizing the economy and the huge push for electric cars play a roll in this.
Seriously? Please tell me how electric cars are destabilizing the economy?

You need to get off the right wing conspiracy web sites.
 
LOL...oil consumption was down because nobody was driving! At one point there was no place to put the oil so prices went negative. Nice short memory you have there.

BTW, OPEC doesn't set the prices, the market sets the price. I take it you don't invest in the stock market or commodities?
Are you denying that Brandon carried out executive orders when he first took office with the explicit intent of limiting supplies to force Americans out of ICE vehicles out of desperation of high fuel costs?
 
Are you denying that Brandon carried out executive orders when he first took office with the explicit intent of limiting supplies to force Americans out of ICE vehicles out of desperation of high fuel costs?
LOL...Assuming calling Biden Brandon is what you are trying to say...No he didn't. You need to get off the right wing conspiracy theory sauce that you drink.

BTW...you look like a complete moron saying Brandon. Grow up a little and have an intelligent conversation or is that beyond your limited IQ?
 
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