Solar Update January 2024
Religious cults promise a wonderful future if only people would believe. The promise the global warming cult made is that we would see the end of snow, no doubt about it. It seems that not enough people believe and that earthly paradise is yet to come. In the meantime, it is energy from the Sun that stops the Earth from looking like Pluto so we should keep an eye on what the Sun is up to, at least out of respect. Let’s start from the solar interior and work outward to the lower atmosphere.
Figure 1: Ap Index 1932 – 2024
The change in character of the Ap Index from the Modern Warm Period continues. Average activity is lower but the big change is the amplitude. This geomagnetic index would have its origin the Sun’s tachocline.
Figure 2: aa Index 1868 – 2024
The aa Index has dropped to the level of the last 65 years of the Little Ice Age.
Figure 3: Cumulative aa Index 1868 – 2024
This is a methodology that captures the long terms changes in trend. Now 18 years into the New Cold Period, it looks like a major trend has been established. With almost the same average level of the last 65 years of the Little Ice Age, the steepness of the downtrend is almost the same.
Figure 4: Interplanetary Magnetic Field 1966 – 2024
In this series Solar Cycle 25 has been appreciably more active than Solar Cycle 24. The 1970s cooling period of Solar Cycle 20 shows up as a period of small swings in activity.
Figure 5: F10.7 Flux 2008 – 2024
Whereas the aa and Ap indices have a lower amplitude of activity in the current solar cycle relative to 24, the F10.7 flux has been stronger, sooner than in 24.
Figure 6: Hemispheric Sunspot Number 1940 – 2023
Energy is conserved within a solar hemisphere from one solar cycle to the next, unless it is destroyed by a retrograde movement. The north and south hemisphere have different trends of activity which suggests that this is controlled by planets crossing the plane of the solar system.
Figure 7: Solar Wind Proton Density
This figure is from Nasa’s
Omniweb page. It is included because it is one of a number of solar parameters that now show a clear break in their level of activity between the Modern Warm Period and the New Cold Period.
Figure 8: Oulu Neutron Count 1964 – 2024
Finally, this is where the rubber meets the road in terms of solar control of climate. The Sun’s magnetic field, carried on the solar wind, pushes galactic cosmic rays away from the inner planets of the solar system. This effect is strongest at solar maximum.
While they are called rays, they are particles – mostly protons and alpha particles. Upon hitting oxygen and nitrogen atoms in the upper atmosphere, a cascade of particles is created which is largely neutrons by the time they reach the lower atmosphere. A high proportion of the atmosphere is saturated with water but lacks nucleation sites for cloud droplet formation. The neutron tracks provide nucleation sites and there is a correlation between low solar activity, neutron flux and cloud cover. Clouds are more reflective than open ocean or land and so the Earth cools. Note the period of high neutron count associated with the 1970s Cooling Period.