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Can Solar & Wind Fix Everything (e.g., Climate Change) with a battery break-through?


 
Green Hydrogen? No its BS (Not suprising)


Goreham’s “at least $5 per kg” for green hydrogen is actually well below Lesser’s figure after we adjust for the cost of electricity from wind and solar generation.

Note that, as I reported on January 12, recent bids in the UK for producing green hydrogen using electricity from off-shore wind came in at about $306/MWH, or 30.6 cents per kwh. Using the conversion factor of 33.3 kwh/kg of hydrogen would make this the equivalent of over $10 per kg of hydrogen.

We won’t really know how much this green hydrogen stuff actually costs until there are some real facilities up and running. But whether it is ten times as expensive as the stuff produced from natural gas, or only five times as expensive, doesn’t really matter. It is uneconomic, and nothing is going to change that. Nobody will ever buy it or use it without government mandates or subsidies or both.

Goreham’s conclusion:

[G]overnments now want to create a new hydrogen fuel industry using market intervention, mandates, and massive subsidies. But physics and economics strongly oppose the development of a green hydrogen fuel industry. Get ready for a spectacular failure of these government-sponsored efforts.
 
Supposedly they have found hydrogen in the ground that can be drilled for like oil. Firstly there was no indication if this "captured" hydrogen is in any way plentiful or recoverable. Secondly if they're drilling for it doesn't that make it a "fossil fuel"?
 

Joe Biden's EV Mandate "Vision" For America Is In Full Collapse​

Color us not surprised, but another one of the Biden administration's "visions" for forcing people to own electric vehicles isn't working out exactly as planned.

This time it deals with supply chain logistics, with Bloomberg reporting this week that in the year and a half since passing the Inflation Reduction Act, automakers are finding out the hard way that the rigorous criteria for manufacturing batteries using materials from the United States and its free-trade allies could render them cost-inefficient compared to global competitors.

Companies like Tesla are instead taking advantage of a temporary shift in the rules to stock up with cheaper batteries from countries like China.


The Biden administration's new rules will all but cut out China from the supply chain, however, which will make it tougher to find affordable metal suppliers.

This, in turn, will threaten President Biden's goal to boost the domestic electric vehicle market. Bloomberg writes that mining companies and labor unions insist that without curtailing the influx of cheaper, Chinese-subsidized materials, the U.S. can't develop a competitive EV market.

Meanwhile, the higher costs are driving automakers away from EVs. And as battery material requirements are set to double by 2027, fulfilling these mandates will be increasingly difficult, putting Biden's ambitious EV strategy at risk.



The demand side of the equation also looks less than favorable. We wrote just hours ago about how Ford was slashing prices on its Mach E and Lightning 150. Tesla has been slashing prices to stoke demand for nearly a year now.

Both Ford and GM have said they're going to curtail their investment in EVs. General Motors, who posted better than expected earnings earlier this month, said that it plans on changing its product lineup to include more hybrid vehicles, drifting away from pure electric vehicles.

CEO Mary Barra said on the earnings call: “Let me be clear, GM remains committed to eliminating tailpipe emissions from our light-duty vehicles by 2035, but, in the interim, deploying plug-in technology in strategic segments will deliver some of the environment or environmental benefits of EVs as the nation continues to build this charging infrastructure.”

Recall, a report from Consumer Reports last year found that electric vehicles have almost 80% more problems and are "generally less reliable" than conventional internal combustion engine cars.

But hey, what good is a "free" market if the government doesn't have complete and total control of consumer choice, right Joe?
 
... if they're drilling for it doesn't that make it a "fossil fuel"?
Even fossil fuels aren't always from plants and animals, it's just an expression in the venacular. I thought hydrogen (and to some extent helium) were by-products of drilling for oil, so cool that you can drill for it.
 
The problem is batteries and issues that effect batteries and bms systems
I've heard reports of relatively minor accidents causing the cars to be totalled for battery damage.
Plus buying a cheap used electric car won't be an option when they require $10-50k in batteries to be functional.
 
The engine, although complicated, has been reduced to almost a science. Or at least to mass production.
Trivially easy to crank out. Now if you buy a bad brand it will fail, but quality brands, where they know how to design and manufacture, are highly reliable.

Likely electric golf cars are pretty reliable too.

But try something new, maybe with just a little software in it, and until the industry has decades of experience you can expect problems.

I've heard reports of relatively minor accidents causing the cars to be totalled for battery damage.
Plus buying a cheap used electric car won't be an option when they require $10-50k in batteries to be functional.

Maybe that is the reason the auto industry tried to go all in.
 
I've heard reports of relatively minor accidents causing the cars to be totalled for battery damage.
Plus buying a cheap used electric car won't be an option when they require $10-50k in batteries to be functional.

That is a large part of it.
These batteries are made from thousands of cells (like the one in the cell phone).
Any damage to a single cell will cause a cascade reaction to all other cells, causing entire battery to catch fire (this is exactly what is happening).
So for insurance, its cheaper to total them.
The whole economics of BEVs is upside down, which is why its not feasible with current technology level.
They can be glorified toys for those who can afford them and who understand their limitations.
It is lunacy that BEVs are being pushed on us (This includes PHEVs, which ultimately have the same issues, its just that the battery sizes are smaller and there is a gas engine to compensate).
 
I think PHEV, like the Volt, are a fantastic solution.
So long as grid electricity is available (and it is even surplus middle of afternoon), local commute utilizes that power. If not, it still works.
Amount of battery needed is a few percent of what a Tesla requires to alleviate range anxiety.
ICE means it can boldly go wherever traditional cars can.

Similarly, I am vehemently opposed to ban on gas appliances. I think hybrid gas/electric should be allowed. They can run on electric when appropriate, switch to gas as necessary. That allows higher utilization of renewable energy, higher utilization of grid and other generation. Which reduces cost per kWh. Grid collapse can be avoided by hybrid loads not drawing from it when overloaded.
 
I've heard reports of relatively minor accidents causing the cars to be totalled for battery damage.
I've seen a lot of articles regarding EVs being more expensive to repair due to them being more complicated. But a car without a V8, no belts, no radiator/pump, no valves, no platinum catalyst exhaust, no oil, and no transmission is going to be a lot simpler.

What's funny is, unless it's a Tesla or a botique car, the car is usually a stock ICE with a minimum of changes, so any non-battery problem is also a problem with an ICE car. Even Tesla make use of many of common car 12V components... just because they're cheap.

I think a lot of the issues are just problems you'd see with any "new" model of car.

...Plus buying a cheap used electric car won't be an option when they require $10-50k in batteries to be functional.
That's another one that doesn't make sense to me. Those packs get torn apart and bad cells are replaced (possibly it's because those packs don't always go back into cars). Fortunately, with the battery prices dropping ($90/Kwh ref) a 100 kWh pack (~400 mile range) is $9,000. A few years ago the battey pack was half the price of the car. Now it's 20% (although consumers aren't seeing the savings yet as most EVs are "luxury" models with luxury prices. That's why insurance and repair costs are higher than economy cars too. Cars like Aptera's (coming out this year, base price is ~$26,000) should do well. BYD in Mexico is scaring a lot of people (they've been dumping GM stock).

Honda recently made a deal to build an EV with GM (the Prologue), but the partnership has already fallen apart and reviewers were pretty scathing saying it was really a Blazer and all Honda did was rearrange where the GM buttons went. Could just be Honda Hate.

I saw a video yesterday regarding Honda talking about their EV vision. It was redesigning the car as an EV rather than an ICE car. There're a lot of weird things you wouldn't think, for example this guy says drum brakes are better for EVs. Interesting videos.


Supposedly they have found hydrogen in the ground that can be drilled for like oil.
Found this:

... I am vehemently opposed to ban on gas appliances. I think hybrid gas/electric should be allowed...
I don't believe the federal government is "banning" those things, just not letting new ones be sold in the U.S. after certain dates (that might be states and not the fed, not sure). If I'm wrong please post a link!

Personally, I'd be fine with a tax to pay for GHG removal of things (e.g., the manufacture of EVs). That should suffice and be encouragement enough for people to change when ready.

Speaking of which, saw an Aptera video where during the presentation they were answering questions and someone asked about the environmental impact of manufacturng the carbon fiber. The presenter side-stepped the question so I looked it up. 29.45 metric tonnes CO2 per tonne of CF (ref). Steel, thought to be the dirty guy on the block, is only 1.8 tons per ton of steel (ref). It's not as bad as it sounds since the Aptera is light. At $200 per ton of CO2 that would add about $40.
 
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I doubt insurance companies will continue to offer coverage on used packs for much longer. The fire risk is too great on new packs as it is.
I suspect the used packs mainly go to utilities and they're self-insured. If they're reselling for cars they'd probably have to offer some sort of warranty/guarantee for consumer confidence. Personally, I think LFP is the way to go for cars to eliminate the fire issue.
 
I don't believe the federal government is "banning" those things, just not letting new ones be built after certain dates. If I'm wrong please post a link!

Same difference. Not saying they are taking gas appliances away, just prohibiting manufacture, import, gas service for new homes. Federal, California, whoever affects me.

If your existing appliance breaks and new one isn't available, you have to change infrastructure in your house (maybe 10x price of appliance), and pay 8x the price for energy, plus contribute to overload of grid without being able to fall back on gas.

Used market?
California bans resale of catalytic converters, even from low-mileage wrecks. So have to pay high new price.
Appliance, fixture (e.g. toilet), yard equipment trade-ins are offered. For high efficiency models. The good old one is destroyed to prevent re-use, and the new poor quality one fails before it ought to. A win-win.

I've seen a lot of articles regarding EVs being more expensive to repair due to them being more complicated. But a car without a V8, no belts, no radiator/pump, no valves, no platinum catalyst exhaust, no oil, and no transmission is going to be a lot simpler.

So many youths want to get into auto repair that classes are full. And with their certification, many jobs only pay minimum wage. ICE auto repair is cheap (or high markup, for the shops that charge $120/hour labor rate but just pull a transmission and send to somebody else for overhaul.)

Electric cars, only a few trained for it. And not of interest to most aspiring (think they are?) motor heads.
 
Maybe this will help

Sum of the parts for EV

VS

Sum of Parts for ICE

Why are replacement EV batteries so expensive?
Slop the greedy corporate hogs… they screw pigs and ppl applaud. More green $$$$$$ into the sewer. Bring the family event to the screwing of forced ….DISPOSABLE EXPENSIVE VEHICLE REPLACEMENT. Income forfeitures traded to travel freely. Where is that next pay ev charge station.

Just wait until the crack heads that steal catalytic converters find out copper, aluminum, and such are in the public ev chargers …. 🤣😀🤡 Put those chip readers in charge stations too. Hmmmm

Insurance companies are re-thinking coverage on EV for various reasons biggest is fire followed by damaged battery cost. Hyundai and others recommended parking their ev vehicles far away from home. So…. Get a long extension cord to recharge. Will ALL home owners insurance go up for everyone to cover the ev fire risk or just the ev owner?
 
Same difference. Not saying they are taking gas appliances away, just prohibiting manufacture, import, gas service for new homes. Federal, California, whoever affects me.

If your existing appliance breaks and new one isn't available, you have to change infrastructure in your house (maybe 10x price of appliance), and pay 8x the price for energy, plus contribute to overload of grid without being able to fall back on gas.

Used market?
California bans resale of catalytic converters, even from low-mileage wrecks. So have to pay high new price.
Appliance, fixture (e.g. toilet), yard equipment trade-ins are offered. For high efficiency models. The good old one is destroyed to prevent re-use, and the new poor quality one fails before it ought to. A win-win.



So many youths want to get into auto repair that classes are full. And with their certification, many jobs only pay minimum wage. ICE auto repair is cheap (or high markup, for the shops that charge $120/hour labor rate but just pull a transmission and send to somebody else for overhaul.)

Electric cars, only a few trained for it. And not of interest to most aspiring (think they are?) motor heads.

The margins on auto service are incredibly thin.

It's worse than trucking in the race to the bottom for wages and what can be charged.

Of nearly all the trades, it requires the most broad set of skills and pays the least yet online geeks always claim they are being ripped off by auto repair shops.
 
The margins on auto service are incredibly thin.
No doubt. Had my Ram Cummins in for warranty work and there were between 5-8 service 'liasons' behind the counter. To my knowledge their only purpose is to keep the customer from directly interfacing with the mechanic.
Nonrefundable $450 diagnostic fee? Really?
 
No doubt. Had my Ram Cummins in for warranty work and there were between 5-8 service 'liasons' behind the counter. To my knowledge their only purpose is to keep the customer from directly interfacing with the mechanic.
Nonrefundable $450 diagnostic fee? Really?

This is why they call them stealerships.

Notice how a lot of industries have highly bloated (paid) administrative middle men whos only job is to prevent you from going directly to the actual experts.

Medicine is number one example
 
Notice how a lot of industries have highly bloated (paid) administrative middle men whos only job is to prevent you from going directly to the actual experts.

The mechanic would never be able to work if he had to put together estimates, field phone calls and endlessly explain things to people.

There is about 1 service advisor to every 4 technicians.

Same with doctors. They would never see patients if they had to do their own insurance billing, manage the phones and check-in their own patients etc.

FYI, you're really inexperienced at how things work. Are you very young and still live at home with your parents or something?
 

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