Do We Need a Control Group?

[Cdkipp]

Sorry .... it won't let me read that .... and I don't want a NY Times subscription

What Epidemiologists Are Doing Now​

Share saying they had done or would have done the following activities if necessary in the last 30 days, compared with answers from December 2020​

Dec. ’20
May ’21

Ran errands in person	92%
Brought in mail without precautions	83
Hiked or gathered outdoors with friends	74
Saw a doctor for a nonurgent appointment	63
Got a haircut at a salon or barber shop	53
Interacted outside within 6 feet without a mask	45
Vacationed overnight within driving distance	43
Hugged or shook hands when greeting a friend	39
Visited an older relative or friend in his/her home	35
Attended a small indoor dinner party	32
Ate indoors at a restaurant	30
Traveled by airplane	25
Worked in a shared office	23
Rode a subway or a bus	20
Exercised at a gym or fitness studio	15
Attended a wedding or a funeral	10
A date/outing with someone they didn't know well	9
Attended a church or other religious service	8
Attended a sporting event, concert or play	6

Epidemiologists were asked to identify which of these activities they had done in the last 30 days, or would have done if necessary, assuming they would wear a mask or distance as needed.

 

[wholybee]

We have many control groups. We can look at those in the US that chose not to get vaccinated. We can look at other countries with lower vaccination rates. We can look at history to see what rates of ill effects were before covid vaccines. All of these will need to have corrections applied, because a true control group is exactly like the group being tested except for that is being tested. But with several groups to work with, I think a good study could be done in 10-20 years.

What we can also do, is look at the ingredients in the vaccine, and look at other vaccines that use the same ingredients. Vaccines can have side effects and long-term effects in some people, and we know this and what ingredients can cause what. When I was vaccinated, I was given a sheet listing all the ingredient. There are not any secrets. As vaccines have evolved, we make them safer with less side effects. Covid vaccine fears aside, vaccines today are much safer with much fewer side effects than those I got when I was a child. mRNA may be "new" but ultimately it is just a protein. Aside from how our immune system reacts to it, we understand what proteins do in the body. The J&J vaccine isn't even an mRNA vaccine, so we even better understand it's long-term effects.

So, while long term side-effects are possible, even likely in a few small percentage of people, the instances should be fewer than with previous vaccines. And we will know in 10-20 years, and by then have even safer vaccines.

 

[Bob B]

What Epidemiologists Are Doing Now​

Share saying they had done or would have done the following activities if necessary in the last 30 days, compared with answers from December 2020​

Dec. ’20
May ’21

Ran errands in person	92%
Brought in mail without precautions	83
Hiked or gathered outdoors with friends	74
Saw a doctor for a nonurgent appointment	63
Got a haircut at a salon or barber shop	53
Interacted outside within 6 feet without a mask	45
Vacationed overnight within driving distance	43
Hugged or shook hands when greeting a friend	39
Visited an older relative or friend in his/her home	35
Attended a small indoor dinner party	32
Ate indoors at a restaurant	30
Traveled by airplane	25
Worked in a shared office	23
Rode a subway or a bus	20
Exercised at a gym or fitness studio	15
Attended a wedding or a funeral	10
A date/outing with someone they didn't know well	9
Attended a church or other religious service	8
Attended a sporting event, concert or play	6

Epidemiologists were asked to identify which of these activities they had done in the last 30 days, or would have done if necessary, assuming they would wear a mask or distance as needed.

My list of things would be similar .... but not so large. If I were going to travel overnight, I would be spending the night in my own camper.

If we don't go on with life .... Covid won.

 

[Cdkipp]

We have many control groups. We can look at those in the US that chose not to get vaccinated. We can look at other countries with lower vaccination rates. We can look at history to see what rates of ill effects were before covid vaccines. All of these will need to have corrections applied, because a true control group is exactly like the group being tested except for that is being tested. But with several groups to work with, I think a good study could be done in 10-20 years.

What we can also do, is look at the ingredients in the vaccine, and look at other vaccines that use the same ingredients. Vaccines can have side effects and long-term effects in some people, and we know this and what ingredients can cause what. When I was vaccinated, I was given a sheet listing all the ingredient. There are not any secrets. As vaccines have evolved, we make them safer with less side effects. Covid vaccine fears aside, vaccines today are much safer with much fewer side effects than those I got when I was a child. mRNA may be "new" but ultimately it is just a protein. Aside from how our immune system reacts to it, we understand what proteins do in the body. The J&J vaccine isn't even an mRNA vaccine, so we even better understand it's long-term effects.

So, while long term side-effects are possible, even likely in a few small percentage of people, the instances should be fewer than with previous vaccines. And we will know in 10-20 years, and by then have even safer vaccines.

Yes, the mRNA vaccines are essentially fat globs and saline. The mRNA itself is gone within 72 hours. The protection of vaccines does not come from the vaccine but from the stimulation of our immune system.

 

[Zwy]

I'm hesitant to start another Covid / vaccine related thread, but I didn't want to post in the other thread because it has been corrupted by nothing but hate filled rhetoric.
As soon as this thread gets that way, I will report it myself to a moderator and request that it be closed to further comment.

I just wanted to float an idea I saw in an article today. The idea is that we need a "control group."

In order to assess whether there are long term affects of getting Covid and not being vaccinated ..... or possible long term effects of the vaccine .... it is necessary to have a control group to compare against.
Think of it as if the unvaccinated are the placebo group. A proper study always needs a placebo group .... right?

Maybe we should be thanking those brave unvaccinated people instead of trying to coerce and vilify them .... we need them for a long term control group.

I'm in the control group. I suffer from rheumatoid arthritis and my rheumatologist recommended I do not take the shot as they have no idea whether it would set my RA into overdrive.

I had covid before the shot was available, for me it was nothing. Sore throat and headache, some muscle aches. I've had colds and the flu worse. That was the second reason my rheumatologist recommended I don't take the shot as I didn't have any complications before.

My daughter in law had juvenile RA as a teenager. It had been in remission for years. She had the shot, one month later she has full active adult RA.

My RA is due to my service during the Gulf War. Experimental drugs and vaccines can affect you years later.

 

[Bob B]

I'm in the control group. I suffer from rheumatoid arthritis and my rheumatologist recommended I do not take the shot as they have no idea whether it would set my RA into overdrive.

I had covid before the shot was available, for me it was nothing. Sore throat and headache, some muscle aches. I've had colds and the flu worse. That was the second reason my rheumatologist recommended I don't take the shot as I didn't have any complications before.

My daughter in law had juvenile RA as a teenager. It had been in remission for years. She had the shot, one month later she has full active adult RA.

My RA is due to my service during the Gulf War. Experimental drugs and vaccines can affect you years later.

I have complications from a different war .... do you know what your were exposed to? Do you take immunosuppressant drugs?

My brother has RA .... they gave him the shot anyway. I haven't talked to him about the details since he lives a couple of states away from me and we haven't got together other that an occasional text or phone call. I don't know if they stopped his immunosuppressant drugs before the shot or not.

You are an individual with your own individual reasons for your decision .... I just wish those in power would appear to recognize that more.

 

[Cdkipp]

I have complications from a different war .... do you know what your were exposed to? Do you take immunosuppressant drugs?

My brother has RA .... they gave him the shot anyway. I haven't talked to him about the details since he lives a couple of states away from me and we haven't got together other that an occasional text or phone call. I don't know if they stopped his immunosuppressant drugs before the shot or not.

You are an individual with your own individual reasons for your decision .... I just wish those in power would appear to recognize that more.

Sure but Zwy is a perfect example of someone that should consult his own physician and would be exempt from mandates.

 

[Bob B]

Sure but Zwy is a perfect example of someone that should consult his own physician and would be exempt from mandates.

but not statistics .... We'll have to wait and see about the .... You can't do this if you aren't vaccinated stuff.

 

[MurphyGuy]

My list of things would be similar .... but not so large. If I were going to travel overnight, I would be spending the night in my own camper.

If we don't go on with life .... Covid won.

During my 30 years as an engineer in the automotive industry, part of my job was diagnosing production problems. We had an e-coating line that was "spotting" the parts.
Long story short, we tracked it down to bacteria growing inside the coating tank. The experience, and the following decade of bacteriological education I got, gave me some amateurish insight into the world.. and just as importantly, a bunch of toys to play with..

Let me shorten this up.. If you knew what I know, you would never visit a public gym, hotel, shower, or any other public spot where human-to-human bio-material exchange could ever happen... Strangely enough, toilets aren't so bad..

I tested the gym equipment at the place I had a membership, tested their swimming pool, hot tub, showers, bathrooms.. tested hotel bed sheets, pillows, remote controls, etc.

Disgusting doesn't quite describe it....

If I'm forced to go to a hotel, I bring a blue tarp, my own pillow, and a sleeping bag.. I also bring a small handheld pump sprayer loaded with bleach and will never let my feet touch the floor.

Like you, I'd rather stay in a tent "roughing it".

 

[Zwy]

I have complications from a different war ....

I knew there was something I liked about you.

do you know what your were exposed to?

Some records are classified and I can't retrieve them from DOD or VA. When there is any armed conflict, DOD seems to manage plenty of experimentation. I think most people believe the government looks out for them, my experience is that the government serves it's own self interests and people are expendable. I'm missing the whole page of vaccinations including Anthrax done at Camp Legune before I shipped out.

Do you take immunosuppressant drugs?

Yes, weekly shot of Enbrel. It might get switched yet, I saw RA doc a few weeks ago and she wanted me back in 3 months and not the usual 6 months. Cold weather here has not been enjoyable. Was already on methotrexate, didn't go well, I went anemic and was passing out. Red blood cell count fell off the charts.

My brother has RA .... they gave him the shot anyway. I haven't talked to him about the details since he lives a couple of states away from me and we haven't got together other that an occasional text or phone call. I don't know if they stopped his immunosuppressant drugs before the shot or not.

For those on methotraxate, the VA was recommending suspending mexy for 2 weeks before. As there wasn't any data on Enbrel (etanercept), my RA doc and her higher up couldn't recommend the shot. It's a gamble, not one I'm willing to take as I'm not in full remission yet.

You are an individual with your own individual reasons for your decision .... I just wish those in power would appear to recognize that more.

The conversation with the docs was quite lengthy and detailed. Pros and cons were discussed plus the fact I had already had covid with no complications. I had been on supplemental Vit D for years before covid and had already added Vit C and zinc. Risk for me for reinfection is low and chances are I won't have complications. I do not have any heart issues, had a full cardio workup 2 years ago when I had edema due to medication reaction. At that time I was running 3 miles everyday in under 24 minutes and I was over 50 years old. Currently I'm down to 2 miles simply due to the RA causing to much joint pain. I will get back to the 3 miles again though.

I just lost a good friend I've known since junior high a month ago. He had covid before the shot and did not get the shot after it was available. The shot quite possibly wouldn't have helped either, he might have been just one of those people that have an immune system that doesn't retain memory cells.

On a side note, I talked to a good friend yesterday who works the covid floors at an area hospital. They are using Ivermectin for treatment now with success along with many other off label drugs. It all depends on timing of treatment, the idea of not providing early treatment was causing too many deaths and many doctors are working to correct that.

 

[Zwy]

but not statistics .... We'll have to wait and see about the .... You can't do this if you aren't vaccinated stuff.

Doesn't matter to me unless they won't let me drive out of Iowa. I live a simple life, don't need to fly and don't go to venues as I'm busy with hobbies like solar systems. I'm self employed, no employer mandate for me.

I do like to travel a few weeks a year, didn't get to when I was younger building a business and investing every dollar back in it. I'd like to enjoy life without restrictions. One thing about Iowa is we don't have mask mandates and no restrictions. The state legislature and governor have really done a great job here, the economy has been strong the entire time and really for a state with a huge elderly population, the deaths due to covid have mainly been those who had other problems that covid just pushed along.

 

[Zwy]

During my 30 years as an engineer in the automotive industry, part of my job was diagnosing production problems. We had an e-coating line that was "spotting" the parts.
Long story short, we tracked it down to bacteria growing inside the coating tank. The experience, and the following decade of bacteriological education I got, gave me some amateurish insight into the world.. and just as importantly, a bunch of toys to play with..

Let me shorten this up.. If you knew what I know, you would never visit a public gym, hotel, shower, or any other public spot where human-to-human bio-material exchange could ever happen... Strangely enough, toilets aren't so bad..

I tested the gym equipment at the place I had a membership, tested their swimming pool, hot tub, showers, bathrooms.. tested hotel bed sheets, pillows, remote controls, etc.

Disgusting doesn't quite describe it....

If I'm forced to go to a hotel, I bring a blue tarp, my own pillow, and a sleeping bag.. I also bring a small handheld pump sprayer loaded with bleach and will never let my feet touch the floor.

Like you, I'd rather stay in a tent "roughing it".

I understand where you're coming from but it also reminds of George Carlin swimming in the Delaware River. If we don't get exposures, the immune system doesn't work when it might be a serious bug. It's a Catch 22, exposure can lead to immunity but it also carries risk of catching something the immune system can't handle.

 

[Bob B]

I understand where you're coming from but it also reminds of George Carlin swimming in the Delaware River. If we don't get exposures, the immune system doesn't work when it might be a serious bug. It's a Catch 22, exposure can lead to immunity but it also carries risk of catching something the immune system can't handle.

I agree .... that's part of the way our amazing immune system works .... it needs to "train" to keep up to date.

 

[MurphyGuy]

I understand where you're coming from but it also reminds of George Carlin swimming in the Delaware River. If we don't get exposures, the immune system doesn't work when it might be a serious bug. It's a Catch 22, exposure can lead to immunity but it also carries risk of catching something the immune system can't handle.

I live on a hobby farm.. pigs, chickens, dogs, cats.., and a young child... we get plenty of exposure to bacteria. We aren't "clean freaks" by any measuring stick..

Exposure, like you say, is a good thing... until you're exposed to something your immune system can't fight.. Athletes foot, Legionella, Noro Virus,, and a host of other nasties.

Have you ever had Norovirus? Let me tell you, I've had it.. I think I'd rather have covid, then the flu, then covid again, then have any two finger cut off before I ever agreed to have Norovirus.

Being exposed to a simple dog in the house is enough exposure to keep your immune system strong.. Studies are clear on this.. Kids with dogs have lower rates of allergies, infections, and a bunch of other stuff.

They actually discovered that dairy farmers have a lower cancer risk than most other people. Something about the poopy particles they're constantly inhaling causing their immune systems to become hyper-strong.

Poultry and Livestock Exposure and Cancer Risk among Farmers in the Agricultural Health Study

The purpose of this study is to evaluate cancer risk associated with raising animals as commodities, which is associated with a variety of exposures, such as infectious agents and endotoxins.Information was available for 49,884 male farmers in the Agricultural ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

And it doesn't stop there.. Children on farms are healthier too.

Animal germs = good
People germs = bad.

Sleeping in my chicken coop, with the chickens, would be less risk than going to the gym or a hotel... My chicken coop is a little bigger than a California King sized bed if anyone is interested.. (LOL)

 

[Bob B]

I knew there was something I liked about you.


Some records are classified and I can't retrieve them from DOD or VA. When there is any armed conflict, DOD seems to manage plenty of experimentation. I think most people believe the government looks out for them, my experience is that the government serves it's own self interests and people are expendable. I'm missing the whole page of vaccinations including Anthrax done at Camp Legune before I shipped out.


Yes, weekly shot of Enbrel. It might get switched yet, I saw RA doc a few weeks ago and she wanted me back in 3 months and not the usual 6 months. Cold weather here has not been enjoyable. Was already on methotrexate, didn't go well, I went anemic and was passing out. Red blood cell count fell off the charts.


For those on methotraxate, the VA was recommending suspending mexy for 2 weeks before. As there wasn't any data on Enbrel (etanercept), my RA doc and her higher up couldn't recommend the shot. It's a gamble, not one I'm willing to take as I'm not in full remission yet.


The conversation with the docs was quite lengthy and detailed. Pros and cons were discussed plus the fact I had already had covid with no complications. I had been on supplemental Vit D for years before covid and had already added Vit C and zinc. Risk for me for reinfection is low and chances are I won't have complications. I do not have any heart issues, had a full cardio workup 2 years ago when I had edema due to medication reaction. At that time I was running 3 miles everyday in under 24 minutes and I was over 50 years old. Currently I'm down to 2 miles simply due to the RA causing to much joint pain. I will get back to the 3 miles again though.

I just lost a good friend I've known since junior high a month ago. He had covid before the shot and did not get the shot after it was available. The shot quite possibly wouldn't have helped either, he might have been just one of those people that have an immune system that doesn't retain memory cells.

On a side note, I talked to a good friend yesterday who works the covid floors at an area hospital. They are using Ivermectin for treatment now with success along with many other off label drugs. It all depends on timing of treatment, the idea of not providing early treatment was causing too many deaths and many doctors are working to correct that.

They actually have my brother on Hydroxychloroquine as part of his treatment in addition to the immunosuppressants.
I have wondered if the immunosuppressants might actually prevent the cytokine storm that overwhelms the lungs since that is actually an over reaction of the immune system.

 

[Cdkipp]

They actually have my brother on Hydroxychloroquine as part of his treatment in addition to the immunosuppressants.
I have wondered if the immunosuppressants might actually prevent the cytokine storm that overwhelms the lungs since that is actually an over reaction of the immune system.

That is exactly why dexamethasone is used. All counterintuitive as you are suppressing immune system but it prevents runaway immune response. Timing of course is critical.

 

[Cdkipp]

I agree .... that's part of the way our amazing immune system works .... it needs to "train" to keep up to date.

What you are referring to is the “hygiene hypothesis”. The idea that is by keeping a newborn in a sterile environment the immune system can become over reactive and cause allergies, asthma, colitis etc. There is no evidence a mature immune system benefits from exposure to numerous pathogens.

 

[Bob B]

What you are referring to is the “hygiene hypothesis”. The idea that is by keeping a newborn in a sterile environment the immune system can become over reactive and cause allergies, asthma, colitis etc. There is no evidence a mature immune system benefits from exposure to numerous pathogens.

What I was more referring to is more like what doesn't kill you makes you stronger kind of thing.

We know that the immune system has memory cells that makes it respond faster to a pathogen or even similar pathogens.
It's kinda of like being exposed to the flu and getting mildly ill this year may prevent you from getting seriously ill to the one next year that is more virulent.

I don't think you can throw a blanket and just say there is no evidence.

 

[Cdkipp]

What I was more referring to is more like what doesn't kill you makes you stronger kind of thing.

We know that the immune system has memory cells that makes it respond faster to a pathogen or even similar pathogens.
It's kinda of like being exposed to the flu and getting mildly ill this year may prevent you from getting seriously ill to the one next year that is more virulent.

I don't think you can throw a blanket and just say there is no evidence.

That is what I was taught and have looked it up a few times lately as it has found it’s way into the mainstream press. It is mixing up two concepts. If you body gets exposed to something, it can often remember it, as with the vaccine, and provide an expedited response. That is known. But the notion we need to keep our immune system exposed to pathogens to keep it from weakening is not true.

 

[Bob B]

That is what I was taught and have looked it up a few times lately as it has found it’s way into the mainstream press. It is mixing up two concepts. If you body gets exposed to something, it can often remember it, as with the vaccine, and provide an expedited response. That is known. But the notion we need to keep our immune system exposed to pathogens to keep it from weakening is not true.

What I have read several times is the flu reference I mentioned in the other post ..... getting exposure this year makes it ready for next year as the flu virus mutates .... too long without exposure puts you behind the curve.

We also know that the vaccine response to Covid fades pretty quickly .... so, I would see that as your immune system getting weaker than it was 6 months ago. If it's not .... why do we need a booster?
The antibodies, T cells, and B cells all fade.