At what price does LFP storage make it possible to go off-grid?

[Ozark Tinkering]

So the following doesn’t get said:



I fight with myself every day about whether to start a business or keep my job.

Seriously. Every day it crosses my mind.

Right now the job is a better fit, but I’ve got enough age and experience that I have options.

Then there’s the little MiG and a big TiG, bags full of 12V and solar tools, two rollaways with everything but a tire changer to open a service center. But right now I just need to “look right” for a while so I can get a cheap mortgage.

But you start a business so you aren’t held down to chase a pension (those still exist?!!)

In the rural flee-the-covid goldrush places like rural Vermont $140/150K houses are going on market $250K and non-native money is bidding-war tipping them well past the local resident’s ability to buy.
Another savings-and-loan crises brewing. A $275-$350K house in Stowe, Vermont that I’m familiar with sold last year for $800,000

Things are a bit nuts.

In a slightly convoluted way you are making sense! But it’s not so much the 0.01billion that motivates the printing- it’s more the abject forcing of the constituents to cover the .01 while discounting the principle to the point that the value of tax receipts

Pensions absolutely do still exist. I happen to be the happy participant in 3 defined benefit pensions myself and each are fat and happy according to the annual audits. I wasn't one of the many who bought into the 401k or IRAs or Annuity schemes financial planners of the 80s were peddling and proclaiming the magic of compounding would make you rich if you just put your own savings in their mutual fund plan. They told us the pensions would not last. That was 45 years ago. Not saying those aren't good second fiddles to a pension, but defined benefit pensions are the way to go. So instead we joined multi-employer pension funds that guarantee lifetime benefits. I got 30 years vested at age 52. Early retirement has been a really good thing. I'm just now aging into full Social Security age and my modest shack and acreage are paid for, so the chase was well worthwhile. Besides that was just a seasonal gig. Many of us earned our living in 6 months a year and fished the rest. One thing you won't get much of in San Jose is acreage and neighbors like mine. I have a younger brother who followed others in my family into business and has not been employed by another since he was 25. Covid has been very hard on his business and I do worry for what he might be looking forward to in his golden years. They are coming fast for him. Good for him his home and acreage is also paid off.

 

[Hedges]

San Jose acreage is available, comes with a view and a hefty price tag:

California Real Estate & Homes for Sale | MLSListings.com | MLSListings

Search the most up to date collection of homes, condos, land and more on mlslistings.com.

www.mlslistings.com

Some neighbors keep cows. We can hear them when it is dinner time.
Others just a block away have several horses on their ~ 5 acre parcel at the edge of town.


My acreage is Santa Cruz mountains. Probably still some halfway affordable land there, but not flat usable pasture.

 

[Ozark Tinkering]

You can buy 30 acres of shear bluff in the Ozarks with a road along the bottom and a road along the top for legal access like the one described in your ad but if you don't throw in another 4 sections of premium ranch land with lots of live water and a McMansion in with the deal, that would be $1,000acre property if owner financed. Undeveloped or fallow land in California, a state with 40million and a county with 2million people is left undeveloped for a reason and not because it's the most valuable land. In Arkansas a state with 3million people and a county with barely 16,000 people there is still plenty of vacant land and not because it's the worst land. I do have to admit, what I miss most about my home state of California is those gorgeous smokey sunsets...and then driving down from the Lagunas into the city toward the sea past those homeless camps? Nothing else like it anywhere!
Oh wait...

 

[Zwy]

You are looking at it backwards. Inflation is a devaluing of the money supply. This happens *because* the government expands the money supply and prints more money. They have to do that because our money supply is provided at an interest rate. Even George Washington warned against loaning our money supply at an interest rate. Here's a little mind puzzle for you:

You and I are both saying the same thing.

Assume you make a new country and decide to create one billion clams for your money supply, which you loan to your citizens (through a group of private banks, of course) at a simple 1% interest. When all is said and done at the end of time, the citizens owe 0.01 billion clams to the banks. Where does that 0.01 billion clams come from?

Hint: The entire money supply is one billion clams, yet 1.01 billion clams are spoken for due to interest due on the money supply....

You must watch Mike Maloney videos.

If the US dollar had remained on the gold standard, it wouldn't be a problem because new gold mining still occurs. And the USA has plenty of other resources such as oil where the government gets royalties on. That money goes into the Treasury and as such expands the money supply when the government spends that money whether paying interest on bonds or paying the salary of some bureaucrat.

When the US went was on the gold standard, real deflation occurred over time, the "price" of items declined due to the fixed amount of real money circulating thru the system. This also limited how much the government could spend.

 

[12VoltInstalls]

the "price" of items declined due to the fixed amount of real money circulating thru the system.

The odd component of that ‘feature’ is that consumer borrowing in that scenario is more of a “purchased service” than an inflationary driver. So equitable barter (butcher to cobbler, wagon-maker to grower of grain in colonial terms) creates an experience of profit without siphoning value - and siphoning of value is what happens with the bulk of income tax receipts.

This also limited how much the government could spend

Which coexists with not needing to income tax people maybe?!!!

 

[Ozark Tinkering]

The odd component of that ‘feature’ is that consumer borrowing in that scenario is more of a “purchased service” than an inflationary driver. So equitable barter (butcher to cobbler, wagon-maker to grower of grain in colonial terms) creates an experience of profit without siphoning value - and siphoning of value is what happens with the bulk of income tax receipts.

Which coexists with not needing to income tax people maybe?!!!

But how else are we going to finance our wars and adventures?

 

[12VoltInstalls]

But how else are we going to finance our wars and adventures?

Like we did for the civil war…

 

[svetz]

Asymmetric Patterns
Started looking at the asymmetric data and found pretty much what you'd expect... our "basic" usage is about the same every day. The variation is in the outside temperature and is dominated by the air conditioning and heating. In the summer months, the AC runs the same amount every day so again the power usage is a flat line for the month. Outliers, do occur in December & January as shown below. It's from the heating, it only comes on a few days a month. I was surprised to see the heating consuming more power than the AC, but believe that's due to the higher temperature delta.

Daily Average in January


For most of my months, the graph above is just a set of bars all the same height.

That said, the graph below shows on average less power is used in winter than summer. The hand-sketched red line represents the highest usage for any one day.

Monthly Average with daily highest 2021


So, to be totally off-grid, the battery size should at least meet the average maximum daily usage. But I'm thinking twice that to increase the life-cycles and minimize the generator (possibly more, still need to research calendar aging). As PV is cheaper and you get power even on gloomy days there's a case for oversizing the array to offset that. So, lots to figure out here yet.

The offset to the battery cost is the grid costs throughout the year, which I should be able to get by summing the 2021 bills. As I already have solar and some battery it changes the math equation above a bit. So, still a lot to do!

 

[12VoltInstalls]

Like we did for the civil war…

We could cut 50% or more off the annual federal budget, still have a first-nation organized military, and pay down the federal debt in a surprisingly short (big picture short) period of time.
Right now if we sustain we will pass the point of no recovery and an immoral ’reset’ will be the only way out.

People don’t want to cut social services or reconfigure social security or cut back on healthcare subsidies for legitimate humane reasons but is another world war or submitting to a foreign power or having another civil war more humane than recreation of a labor economy?

The former ‘poor farm’ model was humane and created productivity, self-esteem, safe housing, and skill growth for the vulnerable to contribute to society. The give-away model dilutes the wealth pond to the point of unsustainability.

But we’re stuck because we’ve lost the desire to overcome within the masses that we had in 1790 or 1840 or 1880. Not everyone can ‘get rich’ but we don’t have to have poverty, either. People today are so selfish they don’t even benefit themselves in general.

But that’s where I should stop.
I’m observing the past, living in the present.

I don’t want this to swerve into political stuff- what I’ve said so far is purely cultural observation. To infer politically into it requires a small or closed mind. Or both?
Essentially we have some domestic problems but the politics just seem to want to delay the inevitable.

Because of the contemporary issues, the point of solar battery storage making sense isn’t maybe where it should be economically but technology is creating future solutions. In many cases present technology and products can work out economically but not all the time- yet.

I’m really enjoying the math and discussions because it is creative thought; and creative thought exposes real solutions instead of wishes.

 

[Ozark Tinkering]

Like we did for the civil war…

My folks were on the south face of Lookout Mountain, Ga. during that little family feud so don't tell me taxes weren't collected during that war. After the confederates drafted Uncle Henry into the lost cause every time the line shifted whichever army North or South collected tax from our farm and barn. We had to keep our cabbage buried under the hay and our best horse hid out in the thick woods. The Battle of Chickamauga took place in our front yard. They say from the top off that mountain you can see all the way to Florida. My eyes aren't that good anymore.
Yeah I think I'd rather just pay whatever is due to Ceasar every year and hope they stay out of my yard this time.

 

[justgary]

We could cut 50% or more off the annual federal budget, still have a first-nation organized military, and pay down the federal debt in a surprisingly short (big picture short) period of time.
Right now if we sustain we will pass the point of no recovery and an immoral ’reset’ will be the only way out.

People don’t want to cut social services or reconfigure social security or cut back on healthcare subsidies for legitimate humane reasons but is another world war or submitting to a foreign power or having another civil war more humane than recreation of a labor economy?

The former ‘poor farm’ model was humane and created productivity, self-esteem, safe housing, and skill growth for the vulnerable to contribute to society. The give-away model dilutes the wealth pond to the point of unsustainability.

But we’re stuck because we’ve lost the desire to overcome within the masses that we had in 1790 or 1840 or 1880. Not everyone can ‘get rich’ but we don’t have to have poverty, either. People today are so selfish they don’t even benefit themselves in general.

But that’s where I should stop.
I’m observing the past, living in the present.

I don’t want this to swerve into political stuff- what I’ve said so far is purely cultural observation. To infer politically into it requires a small or closed mind. Or both?
Essentially we have some domestic problems but the politics just seem to want to delay the inevitable.

Because of the contemporary issues, the point of solar battery storage making sense isn’t maybe where it should be economically but technology is creating future solutions. In many cases present technology and products can work out economically but not all the time- yet.

I’m really enjoying the math and discussions because it is creative thought; and creative thought exposes real solutions instead of wishes.

Very well stated. We are only 60 years down the road from "Ask not what your country can do for you...."

 

[12VoltInstalls]

As PV is cheaper and you get power even on gloomy days there's a case for oversizing the array to offset that. So, lots to figure out here yet.

I think panels should get even cheaper based on production efficiencies. Hopefully that translates to dollars well.

Being that it’s a 20-30 life and a one-off expense to overpanel it makes way more sense than a generator or oversized homeowner hydro. During the day.

Even with cheaper-end electronic components and to an extent diy LiFePo battery banks the batteries are really the economic downfall. Further, ‘most’ average Josephine Americans would have absolutely no tolerance for monitoring usage and charge never mind load shedding in a bad sun period.

I suppose it’s easier for me because I grew up “planning for power” (firewood) and participation in the exertion of cutting and splitting same. Solar takes less effort but does take frequent and consistent paying attention. But you don’t have to carry it in from the shed.

 

[12VoltInstalls]

so don't tell me taxes weren't collected during that war.

I didn’t say that at all.
Taxes were collected for the war cost; once it was paid off (1881?) those taxes were rescinded.
That is a key feature of my diatribe.
And who was assessed these taxes in the historical record is interesting as well.

The ‘taxes’ collected that you speak of may or may not have been just or legal. No way to tell at this juncture; the skullduggery and thieving in a time of war isn’t usually accounted for no matter what side perpetrated.

 

[Ozark Tinkering]

We could cut 50% or more off the annual federal budget, still have a first-nation organized military, and pay down the federal debt in a surprisingly short (big picture short) period of time.
Right now if we sustain we will pass the point of no recovery and an immoral ’reset’ will be the only way out.

People don’t want to cut social services or reconfigure social security or cut back on healthcare subsidies for legitimate humane reasons but is another world war or submitting to a foreign power or having another civil war more humane than recreation of a labor economy?

The former ‘poor farm’ model was humane and created productivity, self-esteem, safe housing, and skill growth for the vulnerable to contribute to society. The give-away model dilutes the wealth pond to the point of unsustainability.

But we’re stuck because we’ve lost the desire to overcome within the masses that we had in 1790 or 1840 or 1880. Not everyone can ‘get rich’ but we don’t have to have poverty, either. People today are so selfish they don’t even benefit themselves in general.

But that’s where I should stop.
I’m observing the past, living in the present.

I don’t want this to swerve into political stuff- what I’ve said so far is purely cultural observation. To infer politically into it requires a small or closed mind. Or both?
Essentially we have some domestic problems but the politics just seem to want to delay the inevitable.

Because of the contemporary issues, the point of solar battery storage making sense isn’t maybe where it should be economically but technology is creating future solutions. In many cases present technology and products can work out economically but not all the time- yet.

I’m really enjoying the math and discussions because it is creative thought; and creative thought exposes real solutions instead of wishes.

I certainly agree. The subject of civil war has no relevance to the subject and serves no useful purpose. Apologies for my contributions leading up too your response.

 

[Ozark Tinkering]

I think panels should get even cheaper based on production efficiencies. Hopefully that translates to dollars well.

Being that it’s a 20-30 life and a one-off expense to overpanel it makes way more sense than a generator or oversized homeowner hydro. During the day.

Even with cheaper-end electronic components and to an extent diy LiFePo battery banks the batteries are really the economic downfall. Further, ‘most’ average Josephine Americans would have absolutely no tolerance for monitoring usage and charge never mind load shedding in a bad sun period.

I suppose it’s easier for me because I grew up “planning for power” (firewood) and participation in the exertion of cutting and splitting same. Solar takes less effort but does take frequent and consistent paying attention. But you don’t have to carry it in from the shed.

I agree. I'm struck by just how cheap used panels are for off-grid use. When you can purchase panels at @ less than $0.25 watt it's real hard NOT to look at spending more on batteries.

 

[jberger]

Hey Folks, I enjoy a spirited debate on Taxes, Real Estate, etc.
But can we get this thread back on track?
I feel like we were close to consensus on the best way to calculate the inflection point for solar over grid but now we are debating taxes.

I'll start by saying we still haven't really factored in risk to the calculations, and the risk of grid instability is growing every day. (ie California rolling blackouts and Texas deep freeze)

 

[Ozark Tinkering]

Yep. Sorry for getting off track.

 

[12VoltInstalls]

still haven't really factored in risk to the calculations, and the risk of grid instability is growing every day

I don’t think one can mathematically factor for that. Statistics are merely a variable.

Cost of grid power aside, this discussion already factors for risk from the perspective that people generally likely probably wouldn’t consider solar as an alternative if their confidence in solar wasn’t already higher than their grid confidence

debate on Taxes, Real Estate, etc.
But can we get this thread back on track

just as grid confidence/risk is an ancillary factor you mentioned, cultural drivers are also an ancillary factor.

When you can purchase panels at @ less than $0.25 watt it's real hard NOT to look at spending more on batteries.

There is a bit of back-end cost on used panels, though.
That said if I was looking to installing a 5- or 10KWh system I’d probably buy used, and a third or half more than I needed!

 

[Hedges]

I agree. I'm struck by just how cheap used panels are for off-grid use. When you can purchase panels at @ less than $0.25 watt it's real hard NOT to look at spending more on batteries.

I think PV panels can give 25, even 30 or more years of service, amortized cost over life $0.01/kWh (not including SCC, inverter, mounts.)
DIY LiFePO4 might cost $0.05/kWh over anticipated cycle life.

Assuming a system which regulates battery charging to target current while delivering all power needed by loads, I think it is reasonable to overpanel 5x beyond charge current. This can maintain desired current off-season and on relatively overcast days, also power household loads during the day while charging at full rate. (just don't have temperature limit set to allow charging at +1 degree C and have charge rate 0.5C)

My grid-backup system with AGM has a PV/battery imbalance of this sort, but I think it could be useful for full off-grid with lithium batteries as well.

 

[Zwy]

Asymmetric Patterns
Started looking at the asymmetric data and found pretty much what you'd expect... our "basic" usage is about the same every day. The variation is in the outside temperature and is dominated by the air conditioning and heating. In the summer months, the AC runs the same amount every day so again the power usage is a flat line for the month. Outliers, do occur in December & January as shown below. It's from the heating, it only comes on a few days a month. I was surprised to see the heating consuming more power than the AC, but believe that's due to the higher temperature delta.

Daily Average in January
View attachment 81590

For most of my months, the graph above is just a set of bars all the same height.

That said, the graph below shows on average less power is used in winter than summer. The hand-sketched red line represents the highest usage for any one day.

Monthly Average with daily highest 2021
View attachment 81592

So, to be totally off-grid, the battery size should at least meet the average maximum daily usage. But I'm thinking twice that to increase the life-cycles and minimize the generator (possibly more, still need to research calendar aging). As PV is cheaper and you get power even on gloomy days there's a case for oversizing the array to offset that. So, lots to figure out here yet.

The offset to the battery cost is the grid costs throughout the year, which I should be able to get by summing the 2021 bills. As I already have solar and some battery it changes the math equation above a bit. So, still a lot to do!

The thing is that during daylight periods, PV carries that load once you hit full charge. Take for instance in a typical night, my baseload is around 150w with only the freezers, refridgerator and furnace running intermittently. The larger loads are always during daytime, such as the microwave, washing machine, dryer and well pump.

I should look and see if I can somehow graph out just my night time usage but I'll bet I'd have to break it down manually.